00:00RBI is now very trying to stabilize the price of RBI, in reports we have seen that the forex reserves
00:08are being sold by RBI, in every way.
00:14The next step that RBI can come from RBI is that we can see in the monetary policy.
00:20The rate hike is coming from 5 June.
00:23The rate hike is coming from RBI, and the last time we have not done the rate hike.
00:29The rate drop is not done, but the expectations of the rate hike?
00:35If the rate hike is not done, RBI may adopt a more hawkish tone this time.
00:47Maybe a small signalling hike is also possible, if inflation risks rise, now oil prices are starting to rise.
00:55So, now there will be an impact on higher oil prices and inflation.
01:04But a panic or emergency move is unlikely by the RBI in June 5 meeting.
01:09So, I expect more hawkish tone or maybe a small token hike during June 5 MPC meeting.
01:17Let's see, RBI is very data driven and prefer gradual steps.
01:20And there will be a lot of communication for the market to stabilize.
01:25So, yeah, hawkish tone is possible.
01:28A small signal hike is possible, but nothing kind of which can create panic.
01:34Okay, and then what will be the impact on Indian economy?
01:38The commentary of RBI is expected hawkish.
01:40Then what would be the impact on Indian economy and inflation as well?
01:47The Indian economy we have slightly revised down our full year 27,
01:57financial year 27 forecast to around 6.7% from 6.9 to 7% earlier.
02:07Because we thought that things will stabilize a bit early,
02:12but it's taking longer than our anticipation.
02:15Also, the oil prices are trading above the level we anticipated earlier,
02:20maybe a couple of months back.
02:23So, if monetary policy's tone hawkish,
02:28as I said, hawkish tone may not have any major impact,
02:32further impact on the economic growth,
02:36but then it will be a kind of problematic
02:42if there is a sharp increase in the interest rates,
02:46either in the June or in the subsequent MPC meeting,
02:50then the growth may slow down further.
02:53Of course, the entire objective of the RBI is to control inflation
02:56and keep it within that 4% to 6%.
02:59I mean, that's the ban, 2% to 6%.
03:01But I think the entire struggle of RBI at this point in time
03:06to keep it within that 4% to 6% ban,
03:09anything below 4%, I think, is not achievable in this financial year.
03:13But even 4% to 6% is good enough and within the RBI comfort zone.
03:17So, that's what I am expecting that inflation will be somewhere between 4% to 6% range for this
03:26FY27 on average
03:28and even for the next two quarters.
03:32Okay.
03:33There is one more data, sir.
03:34IMF has started in April 2026,
03:39which is based on the third or fourth place that we were holding in the global economy.
03:47So, this is a small number.
03:50The country, if I see,
03:52we are seeing 2 steps,
03:53we are seeing 6th position.
03:55If India comes to this,
03:56do you want to be careful about it?
03:58See, rankings are headlines.
04:01I mean, these are like,
04:03these are nothing to do with the fundamentals of the economy, right?
04:07So,
04:09the economy works on fundamentals.
04:10So, IMF's nominal GDP ranking
04:13has a lot of influence from the exchange rate.
04:16Right?
04:17Now, the dollar is strong and the rupee is weak due to the dual factor, right?
04:22First, because the dollar is stronger due to their own monetary policy decisions
04:28and due to our higher dependence on oil input.
04:33So,
04:34this has led to a slip in the ranking.
04:38And this ranking is a lot of countries that are weak.
04:43So,
04:44if our real economy is strong,
04:49we are not kind of concerned about it.
04:53And Indian fundamentals remain strong.
04:55We are the fastest growing major economy in the world
04:58with rising investments,
04:59improving fiscal discipline,
05:01and expanding manufacturing and services export.
05:05So,
05:05there is nothing to worry about these rankings.
05:08These are just headlines.
05:09We should worry only if growth slows sharply.
05:12I mean,
05:13if the real growth slows sharply
05:15or the macron stability weakens.
05:18And,
05:19at this point in time,
05:20this is not the case.
05:21So,
05:22there is nothing to worry about on that.
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