00:00और सर सबसे जादा बुरा असर इस समय जो दिखाई दे रहा है वो रुपे पर दिखाई दे रहा है
00:04अगर मैं आपको 2 अप्रेल का आट बदा दूँ तो 93 रुपे 94 पैसे के आसपास इस समय रुपिया कर
00:11रहा है कर रहा है और 95 रुपे के lowest level तक पहुँच चुका है भारतिय र
00:16The target which is assumed for Indian rupee is 100% of the dollar compared to the dollar.
00:22Sir, is that 100% of the dollar will reach the rupee?
00:25And if it happens, then this is a big deal for India.
00:29Which way you are understanding the stackflation.
00:32Although the RBI has also made some moves.
00:34The RBI has now made a big decision.
00:36The banks have given NIRDESH and NDF.
00:39But the moves have been backfired.
00:42This is the reason I would like to understand.
00:43What do RBI is not able to stabilize it?
00:47Look, when it says that our balance of payment is low.
00:51So it comes in a way.
00:54So RBI will try to release its dollar in the market.
01:00And support the rupee.
01:02The exporters will say that you will take your export proceeds quickly.
01:07Importers will say that you don't import extra.
01:09Don't do it, don't do it.
01:11And then the banks have the forward positions.
01:14Where they have committed to it.
01:16Which means that the foreign exchange can go out.
01:18That is the RBI is also trying to do it.
01:21But because the banks have the position of 40-50 billion dollars.
01:24So they will make a mistake.
01:26Now 100 million dollars are allowed.
01:28So they will make a mistake.
01:30They will make a mistake in the market.
01:32So RBI will try to do it.
01:34But I think it's a supply shock.
01:36We can't control the supply shock.
01:37We can't control the monetary policy.
01:39We can't mitigate it.
01:41We can't do it.
01:42We can't do it.
01:42We can't do it.
01:43We can't do it.
01:58Because about the price of the price.
01:59It's a price more than the price.
02:00So I guess that if you want to turn about the price,
02:06it'll be to be 100 dollars.
02:08That's not much.
02:09If the price will take over 100 dollars,
02:10it'll be ko it too.
02:14The price of the price is less than 1.
02:23So we can get at it.
02:24that the supply shock could not be able to normalize from the monetary policy, but there is no hope of
02:29rate cuts.
02:31But what do you think of rate hike?
02:34I believe that the rate hike should be done.
02:37The reason is that the return of our dollar is less than our foreign investment.
02:44It is going back.
02:46So if we offer it more interest, it will go out.
02:50Now, the rate of interest is less than our dollar is depreciating,
02:55so the return is 1.8 percent.
02:58If you have 5-6 percent and 4 percent devaluation is in a month,
03:02then the return will be negative.
03:04I believe that the interest rate will increase the RBI.
03:08But the adverse effect will have to be our industry.
03:12The other problem is that it will be worse.
03:16So I believe that RBI is the interest rate,
03:19which will not be the problem here,
03:23or not that it will be the problem here.
03:24But the foreign direct investment and portfolio investment will go out.
03:28But on the other hand,
03:29if we have increased the interest rate,
03:31then the interest rate is less than that.
03:32It will also be less than that.
03:34So this is why it will be the effect.
03:35So this is why I believe that
03:36we should keep it there.
04:01We should keep it there.
04:08Yes.
04:08Yes.
04:11Yes.
04:12The other because the investors go out there,
04:12you will see that the price is less than $.
04:14will increase the price in the dollar.
04:16But all those economic agents
04:18will they do,
04:19like our non-resident Indians,
04:21they will see that the price is less than $.
04:23the profits will reduce their value.
04:25that they will withdraw.
04:27Exporters will not return to their dollars
04:29for their export proceeds,
04:30they will delay it,
04:31so if they at the dollar,
04:33which will be less than a month.
04:36So I think you will need to import more than a month.
04:38So I think you will need to be more than a month,
04:40and you will need to speculate the number of the RBI.
04:45So I think that the RBI will reduce the speculative activity.
04:52And the speculative activity will reduce the rate in the way.
04:57For the foreign exchange, it will also not die.
05:01will be able to do it. However, they can try to do it, especially those dealers who
05:07can try to do it in speculation because of the state of India, the state of India will
05:11be reduced, because there will be a lot of interest in the imports of the energy of
05:16imports. So, there will be a lot of effect. So, these are all things that are very complicated.
05:22I believe that in this time, some predicts are very difficult. And the foreign exchange
05:26dealers kis prakart se behave karengay woh bhi hamaare bhout muskail hai. Pus RBI ye
05:32kare sakta hai ki speculative activity bhout jyade na bade. Rupiya dhirhe
05:36dhirhe na ki tajji se. Uske alawah woha aur jyade kuch naihi kare sakta.
05:40Chyokhi woha uske hath mein naihi hai ki woha bhaar ke dèšho mein kya
05:44ho raha hai, woha pe expectations kis prakart ki hai, non resident
05:47indians kis prakart se souchta hai, woha sab to uske hath mein hai naihi.
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