00:03hello and welcome
00:05good returns
00:06I am with you
00:07RBI policy
00:09RBI policy
00:11which was not just
00:12the view of the country
00:14EMI
00:15was not just the confusion
00:16but the view of the markets
00:18and the other global markets
00:22were in India's RBI policy
00:23because the tension
00:27in the days of global economy
00:29and Middle East
00:31the tension
00:31after that
00:33RBI policy
00:35decided to decide
00:39that in Bhairat
00:41inflation will be
00:42the GDP
00:43and the interest rates
00:47are not going to hike
00:48so RBI policy
00:50neutral
00:51unchanged
00:51and the interest rates
00:53is not going to be changed
00:53and there will be no change
00:53no change
00:55you will be living in 5.25%
00:57in the same way
00:58and the interest rates
00:58are not going to be
00:59much less than
01:00or less than
01:01in your loans
01:01and in your EMI's
01:03but how do you see it?
01:05Do you have to keep the same
01:06repo rate
01:07or not to change
01:08or not to change
01:09or you will have to affect
01:09your JIP
01:10or other factors
01:12which you should focus on
01:12this?
01:13We will try to understand
01:14all this in the video
01:15and we will try to understand
01:16our own
01:17and our own
01:19Rajeve Sharan Ji
01:20Head of Research
01:21Brickwork Ratings
01:22Sir, welcome to Good Returns
01:24Thank you Anima
01:25It's a pleasure
01:26to be part of this discussion
01:29Rajeve Sir,
01:30first RBI
01:31the policy
01:32is
01:335.25%
01:35per repo rate
01:35is not going to be
01:37the stance
01:38is
01:39which way
01:40to see
01:41EMI
01:41or interest rate
01:43is not going to be
02:02in line with the expectations
02:08so all the analysts
02:11over the past few weeks
02:12have been expecting this
02:14that RBI will maintain
02:16a whole stance
02:18this time
02:19and neutral stance
02:20so
02:21the stance
02:22is of course neutral
02:22that means
02:24RBI
02:25is vigilant
02:26wo
02:28economy pe
02:29naja rakhi vai hai
02:30wo
02:30geopolitical developments pe
02:32naja rakhi vai hai
02:32and
02:34RBI
02:35is tracking it very closely
02:36now
02:37things which are
02:39not under the control of RBI
02:41RBI
02:41are these external factors
02:44RBI
02:45which RBI
02:46is watching
02:47and
02:48how long it is
02:50running
02:50food oil prices
02:52on what level
02:53sustain
02:53depending on
02:55all these factors
02:56we may see
02:58either rate cut
03:00or tightening
03:01in the next MPC meeting
03:03or maybe a hold
03:05it all depends on
03:06how things evolve
03:08Abhi
03:09we have seen
03:10last
03:11night
03:12Trump has announced
03:14two-week ceasefire
03:16so that has anyway
03:18supported
03:19the crude oil prices
03:21and
03:22I think you might have seen
03:23the crude oil prices
03:24have gone down
03:25by around
03:2513 to 15%
03:26in like within a few hours
03:28but of course
03:29this is just
03:31short-term development
03:32and
03:33like
03:33these talks
03:34continue
03:36and
03:36you might be aware
03:37that Iran
03:38has taken 10 pointer
03:39conditions
03:40in the US
03:41and
03:41some of these
03:43I am sure
03:43will not be
03:45acceptable
03:45to the Trump
03:46administration
03:48so given all
03:49these factors
03:49I
03:51still see
03:52a lot of risk
03:53on the
03:54geopolitical side
03:55and this is the
03:55major risk that
03:56India is facing
03:57given
03:59our 90%
04:00almost
04:0090%
04:01oil dependence
04:02is
04:03increased
04:03from the
04:06and
04:07kind of
04:08significant portion
04:09and
04:10state of
04:11and
04:13we
04:14are bound
04:15to suffer
04:16so
04:17this
04:19of course
04:19the stance is
04:20neutral
04:21and it can go
04:22either way
04:23depending on
04:24how the geopolitical
04:26situation
04:27evolved
04:27okay
04:28so the stance
04:29is neutral
04:30it can go either way
04:31you are saying
04:32but still sir
04:33don't you think
04:34the RBI stance
04:36should have been
04:37accommodative
04:38or hawkish
04:39depending on
04:40the scenario
04:40we are seeing
04:41right now
04:42so I mean as
04:44I said
04:45key
04:45we don't know
04:46key in what
04:47direction
04:48this
04:50entire thing
04:51will go
04:51right
04:52we
04:53in two weeks
04:55we may say a complete
04:56de-escalation
04:56right and
04:57then it will take
04:59maybe like a few
05:00weeks or a few
05:01months
05:02to restore the
05:03production
05:03if state of
05:05humus is open
05:06and kind of
05:07restore all the
05:07supplies
05:08so
05:09in that case
05:10we don't see a
05:12major risk
05:12because we have just
05:13entered Fy27
05:14right and
05:15if we go back to
05:17normal
05:18oil price
05:19comes down to
05:20around maybe 75
05:22level
05:23close to 75
05:24level
05:24then this is something
05:25which is our baseline
05:27even before the
05:28conflict started
05:29but this is like a
05:30too optimistic scenario
05:31I mean as I said
05:32key or 10 pointers
05:33if you go through
05:34those 10 pointers
05:34you will realize that
05:35Trump won't agree
05:37to many of them
05:38that means there is a
05:39higher chances of
05:40escalation
05:41so while
05:42a de-escalation scenario
05:44present
05:44accommodative
05:45stance
05:47at the same time
05:48if US doesn't agree
05:49to
05:49the
05:51conditions
05:52put across
05:53by Iran
05:55and
05:56the situation
05:57escalates
05:57and it continues
05:58kind of
05:59gets prolonged
06:00I mean
06:01it may
06:02lead to
06:04oil prices
06:05sustaining
06:05maybe above
06:06$100
06:06for a longer period
06:08of time
06:08that means
06:09at the end of the day
06:11I mean so far
06:12we have seen
06:13government has been
06:14able to absorb
06:15a lot of these costs
06:16right
06:17so only
06:18a part of this
06:19has been passed on
06:19to the final consumers
06:21but
06:21it cannot continue
06:23forever
06:23I mean
06:25$200
06:26per price
06:27then ultimately
06:28we will start
06:29feeling the
06:30burden
06:31the cost burden
06:32of the higher cost
06:33higher oil prices
06:34and then it will
06:35start showing up
06:36in the inflation numbers
06:37and ultimately
06:38the RBI
06:39will have to resort
06:40to
06:41kind of
06:43rate increases
06:44just to contain
06:45inflation
06:46at that time
06:47it's all about
06:47what is more important
06:49whether to
06:50sustain the growth
06:51or to control the inflation
06:52right
06:53so
06:54of course
06:55there are multiple factors
06:56these are like the
06:56external factors
06:57then they are internal
06:58domestic factors
07:00right
07:00so domestically
07:01the demand
07:02so far has been resilient
07:04as per the numbers
07:05so far
07:05we have high value
07:07indicators
07:07high frequency indicators
07:08that we have seen
07:09so far
07:09until Feb
07:12but then
07:13now
07:13we
07:15have anywhere
07:15that we are running
07:16the risk of a slightly
07:17higher inflation
07:18inflation
07:18because of the lower base
07:19effect we have seen
07:20ultra low inflation
07:22during FY26
07:23well below the target
07:25range of the RBI
07:26which is like 4%
07:28plus minus 2%
07:292 to 6%
07:29right
07:30so all those base
07:31effects will start
07:32to kick in
07:33and then we will
07:34anyway under normal
07:35circumstances
07:35we will see inflation
07:36slightly higher
07:37and with this elevated
07:39and that is like
07:40under the base case
07:41scenario of around
07:42$70 to $75
07:43which pre-conflict
07:44now with that
07:46$100 plus of oil prices
07:48like for each
07:5010% increase
07:51in oil price
07:52there is like
07:52on an average
07:53as per the empirical studies
07:54a 30% increase
07:56in the inflation
07:56right
07:57with that 40 to 50%
07:59increase in the oil prices
08:00I mean
08:0150 to 60%
08:02you can just imagine
08:03the inflation may go up
08:04to maybe
08:046% or so
08:06which is like
08:07well
08:08closer to the upper band
08:10of the RBI target range
08:11of 2 to 6%
08:12maybe even
08:12above that
08:13so given all these
08:16conditions
08:16the stance
08:17the neutral stance
08:19I think
08:20is the ideal stance
08:21at this point in time
08:22rather than going for a
08:23commodity
08:24or a hawkish stance
08:54okay
08:55outlook
08:56because
08:57now
08:57ceasefire
08:58has been
08:59at some point
09:00that situation
09:01is also
09:02in control
09:02so
09:03there is not
09:04that the RBI policy
09:05after coming
09:06after coming
09:06after coming
09:06after coming
09:06the RBI is
09:10just for 2 weeks
09:11right
09:11and it is quite
09:12conditional
09:12so
09:13there has been
09:16a ceasefire
09:17there has been
09:18a de-escalation
09:20of course
09:20there is
09:22a hope
09:23that
09:24things will
09:24de-escalate
09:25but
09:25we never know
09:27when it
09:28comes to
09:29RBI
09:31so
09:31immediate
09:32support
09:33is difficult
09:35because
09:36in RBI
09:37projections
09:37if you look at
09:38the RBI projections
09:40even under
09:41I mean
09:41I consider
09:42RBI projections
09:44as the base case
09:45and in the
09:45base case
09:46they are projecting
09:47around 4.6%
09:49inflation
09:50right
09:51any escalation
09:52means like
09:53somewhere
09:54closer to their
09:55upper range
09:56of the target
09:56band
09:57right
09:57so
10:00and
10:01crude oil
10:02prices
10:03has been
10:07hovering
10:07around
10:07hundred
10:08dollar
10:08last few hours
10:10hundred
10:11to
10:11in that
10:14situation
10:16given
10:17this
10:17high
10:17cpi inflation
10:18and
10:19oil
10:20import
10:21bill
10:21which
10:22are high
10:23in the
10:26short term
10:29RBI
10:30RBI
10:30reporate
10:30hold
10:31to
10:31growth
10:32but
10:35currency
10:35will not
10:36get the
10:36and
10:39if
10:40global
10:41investors
10:41go to risk
10:42off
10:43mode
10:43the
10:45capital
10:46outflow
10:47can
10:48further
10:49weaken
10:49that is
10:51about
10:51the
10:51short
10:51term
10:52but
10:53talking
10:53about
10:53medium
10:54term
10:54oil
10:55price
10:56and
10:57inflation
10:58trajectory
10:58will
10:59get a
10:59relief
11:02and
11:03RBI
11:04neutral
11:05but
11:05vigilant
11:06stance
11:11RBI
11:12will
11:12use
11:13and
11:14intervene
11:15to
11:16support
11:16RBI
11:16support
11:16the
11:17last question
11:21you should
11:22take
11:23the GDP
11:24growth
11:24to
11:24your
11:25outlook
11:27for
11:27the GDP
11:29growth
11:29focus
11:30is
11:306.5
11:32to
11:336.9
11:34percent
11:34estimates
11:36do
11:36GDP
11:38growth
11:38you
11:39want to
11:41understand
11:42this
11:42and
11:43RBI
11:43which
11:44is
11:44the
11:45adverse
11:47effect
11:49Indian
11:49GDP
11:49yes
11:51definitely
11:52you
11:53see
11:53GDP
11:55which
11:57is
11:58slightly
11:58below
11:59their
11:597 to
12:007.2
12:00projections
12:02expectations
12:03market
12:04expectations
12:04right
12:06even if you look at our baseline forecast
12:08so that is
12:09again around
12:106.5
12:11to 7
12:12percent between that range
12:13with a
12:13upside
12:15I would say
12:16potential to move
12:18towards the upside
12:19of that range
12:20around 6.8 to 6.9
12:21in the baseline
12:22that's our projection
12:23so
12:24as I said
12:25about the GDP
12:26our baseline is around
12:286.8
12:296.5
12:30to 7
12:31percent
12:31with a kind of
12:32if I talk about the point estimate
12:34we are expecting somewhere around 6.8 percent
12:36under the baseline
12:37if there is a further escalation
12:40moderate escalation
12:41we expect GDP to be somewhere around 6.3 to 6.5 percent
12:45any severe escalation
12:47that means
12:48if
12:49the conflict
12:50continues for another 3 months
12:52and
12:54or 3 months or more
12:55and
12:56oil prices kind of
12:57stay above
12:58USD
12:59100 dollar
13:00for like on average for this entire FY27
13:03we expect GDP growth to be below 6 percent
13:06that's our
13:07forecast for the GDP
13:08but
13:09in the baseline
13:10we expect GDP to be somewhere around 6.8 to 6.9 percent
13:14which is very close to the RBI
13:17forecast
13:18of
13:186.9 percent
13:19for FY27
13:21okay
13:22thank you so much Rajiv sir for joining us today
13:25the RBI stance
13:26and the numbers came out
13:29and the numbers came out
13:29and the numbers came out
13:29and the numbers came out
13:30it was very necessary
13:30and I think
13:32you have understood the projections
13:33in a slightly described way
13:35and our viewers are very helpful to understand these numbers
13:38thank you so much
13:39thank you
13:40thank you Arnima
13:41Thank you
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