#rupee #rupeefall #dollar #dollarvsrupee #inflation #rbipolicy #rbiratehike #crudeoil #crudeprice #PetrolPrice #OilPrices #India #Economy
India is facing rising pressure from a weakening Rupee, soaring crude oil prices, and global uncertainty. Will the Rupee hit 100 against the Dollar? How will this impact petrol prices, inflation, electronics, travel, and the common man? Could RBI surprise markets with a rate hike? Watch the full breakdown of India’s economic risks, oil dependence, and inflation outlook for 2026 with Rajeev Sharan of Brickwork Ratings.
रुपया लगातार कमजोर हो रहा है और Crude Oil की बढ़ती कीमतों ने भारत की चिंता बढ़ा दी है। क्या Dollar के मुकाबले रुपया 100 तक पहुंच सकता है? क्या पेट्रोल, गैस, इलेक्ट्रॉनिक्स और विदेश यात्रा और महंगी होने वाली है? RBI क्या Rate Hike का बड़ा फैसला ले सकता है? जानिए Weak Rupee, Oil Shock, Inflation और Indian Economy पर पूरा विश्लेषण।
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Rupee Slumped To Fresh Record Low Near 97/USD As Rising Brent Crude Prices Rattle Market :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rupee-slumped-to-fresh-record-low-near-97-usd-as-rising-brent-crude-prices-rattle-market-1509609.html?ref=DMDesc
Oil Surge Over West Asia Crisis To Sustained FPI Outflows -- What's Behind The Rupee's Fall :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/oil-surge-over-west-asia-crisis-to-sustained-fpi-outflows-whats-behind-the-rupees-fall-1509535.html?ref=DMDesc
Rupee Faces Fresh Trouble: USD/INR Hits All-Time Low of Rs. 95.23 Amid Oil Rally & Fed Uncertainty :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rupee-faces-fresh-trouble-usd-inr-hits-all-time-low-of-rs-95-23-amid-oil-rally-fed-uncertainty-1505435.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.474~HT.408~ED.472~GR.122~VG.HM~
India is facing rising pressure from a weakening Rupee, soaring crude oil prices, and global uncertainty. Will the Rupee hit 100 against the Dollar? How will this impact petrol prices, inflation, electronics, travel, and the common man? Could RBI surprise markets with a rate hike? Watch the full breakdown of India’s economic risks, oil dependence, and inflation outlook for 2026 with Rajeev Sharan of Brickwork Ratings.
रुपया लगातार कमजोर हो रहा है और Crude Oil की बढ़ती कीमतों ने भारत की चिंता बढ़ा दी है। क्या Dollar के मुकाबले रुपया 100 तक पहुंच सकता है? क्या पेट्रोल, गैस, इलेक्ट्रॉनिक्स और विदेश यात्रा और महंगी होने वाली है? RBI क्या Rate Hike का बड़ा फैसला ले सकता है? जानिए Weak Rupee, Oil Shock, Inflation और Indian Economy पर पूरा विश्लेषण।
Also Read
Rupee Slumped To Fresh Record Low Near 97/USD As Rising Brent Crude Prices Rattle Market :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rupee-slumped-to-fresh-record-low-near-97-usd-as-rising-brent-crude-prices-rattle-market-1509609.html?ref=DMDesc
Oil Surge Over West Asia Crisis To Sustained FPI Outflows -- What's Behind The Rupee's Fall :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/oil-surge-over-west-asia-crisis-to-sustained-fpi-outflows-whats-behind-the-rupees-fall-1509535.html?ref=DMDesc
Rupee Faces Fresh Trouble: USD/INR Hits All-Time Low of Rs. 95.23 Amid Oil Rally & Fed Uncertainty :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/rupee-faces-fresh-trouble-usd-inr-hits-all-time-low-of-rs-95-23-amid-oil-rally-fed-uncertainty-1505435.html?ref=DMDesc
~PR.474~HT.408~ED.472~GR.122~VG.HM~
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NewsTranscript
00:00ֽ ֽ ֽ ֽ
00:01ֽ ֽ ֽ
00:19is growing.
00:20First, 95 rupees equals to 1 dollar, then 96 rupees, we thought that 96 rupees is the
00:27most newest level for the rupee, but after that, it reached a time to 97 rupees.
00:34However, 97 rupees has not reached exactly, but the fear has also become that this level
00:39will not reach 100 rupees.
00:41So, this is the aim of RBI for the policy.
00:48India economy rate, were also cautious and cautious, they have also guesses and hope and
00:56the surprise between RBI policy and people around the world.
01:01This is the aim of inflation, Indian economy and your citizens around you, the
01:10And when all these questions are standing in front of us, we need to discuss about it and that's why
01:16we have a very special guest today.
01:21Rajiv Sharan Ji is here on Brickworks Ratings.
01:24Sir, welcome to Good Returns, first of all, thank you for joining us today.
01:29Thank you, thank you Anima, it's a pleasure to be part of this show.
01:35Rajiv Sharan Ji, first of all, I want to ask what I have said in some reports.
01:41It's going to be a new normal, this trend of Rs.
01:44The trend of Rs.
01:45Really, is the destiny of Rs.
01:48Is the destiny of Rs.
01:49in the next long term?
01:52Look, Rs.
01:54The destiny of Rs.
01:56I won't say it is a weak.
01:59What we are seeing right now is a kind of global adjustment.
02:03Yes.
02:04Now we can see that the dollar is all in the world.
02:08Be it, yen, euro, won.
02:10All currencies are in pressure.
02:12India is not an exception.
02:14Right?
02:16But in our situation, there is an extra layer of oil.
02:19We import almost 88% of our oil needs.
02:23We import.
02:24And when the oil is expensive, we need to buy more dollars.
02:28And Rs.
02:29Further pressure is built.
02:33So, from that perspective, our Rs.
02:38depreciate a little bit.
02:38And that's true for almost all the oil importing countries in the world.
02:43Given the pressure on Rs.
02:45Or in their local currency.
02:48But I don't think that this is the destiny of our currency.
02:55Long term, India's growth is strong.
02:57Fiscal consolidation is running.
02:59Reserves are comfortable.
03:01So, this is a managed adjustment.
03:04Not a free fall.
03:20Okay.
03:29But,
03:30we can kind of defy this.
03:32Yeh possible hai.
03:33But I think we shouldn't be worried about it.
03:36So,
03:36it's all about like,
03:38this is how it should be felt in the economy.
03:43I mean,
03:43agar Rs. pressure bar raha hai,
03:44then Rs. could depreciate hona chahiyeh.
03:46But because this is,
03:47and as I said,
03:48this is not a permanent phenomena.
03:50Once,
03:51geopolitical tensions ease,
03:54or
03:55US apni monetary policy bhi
03:57kind of ease karta hai.
03:59Then,
04:00we will see ki dollar depreciate ho ga,
04:02oil prices niche jayenge.
04:04Toh,
04:04rupees strengthen ho ga.
04:06And the things will reverse.
04:07Right?
04:08So,
04:08when we are ready for the reverse,
04:09we should be ready for kind of depreciation as well.
04:12Right?
04:12So,
04:12that's I think,
04:13is a possibility,
04:14and
04:15not a big reason for me to worry at this point in time.
04:19Given the condition we are in.
04:21It's driven by factors,
04:22which are obvious in nature,
04:24which is driven by,
04:24not the,
04:26there is nothing wrong with our fundamentals.
04:27It's all about the geopolitical issues,
04:30which is driving it.
04:31And not only for us,
04:32but almost all the countries in the world.
04:35Okay.
04:36And sir,
04:36then,
04:37I'll ask ki,
04:38what are your views?
05:04Yes.
05:05I mean,
05:07pressure to,
05:14its already increased,
05:16sir.
05:17Already,
05:18I mean,
05:18after 48-49 months,
05:20there was a,
05:20there was a first increase,
05:22I think,
05:23couple of weeks back.
05:24So we are seeing that the cost pressure has started to kind of pass through to the consumers and it
05:32may happen further in the coming weeks if the oil prices continue to trade over maybe a hundred dollars a
05:39barrel.
05:41So it will be very easy to import. We have a lot of import on electronics and some of the
05:50medicines we are dependent on, import, foreign travel etc.
05:54Everything will be easy to see.
05:58This is all the dollar linked but as I said this is not a new normal and as I said
06:05again that both are cyclical oil and dollar.
06:08So when the U.S. rate cycle turns the pressure will reverse. It may come down quite quickly and on
06:17the policy side the government can adjust duties and the RBI works to keep kind of inflation expectations anchored.
06:26So yes, some of the things will be tough but I don't think this is a permanent reset.
06:32Yes, and if we talk about crude oil, because crude oil is a very important factor.
06:38When the Middle East sanctions came, crude oil is so volatile.
06:42Or I will say that it is increasing the pressure.
06:45We have seen 110-111 dollars per barrel rent.
06:48We have seen the pressure.
06:50But the situation is in a different way.
06:53Many times have happened.
06:55This happened in Iran and the U.S.
06:57The talks are in a positive side.
06:59In that, there is also one news that the UAE is different from OPEC Plus.
07:06The said that we will sell our own oil.
07:10We will sell our own oil.
07:11We will sell our own oil.
07:11The other news that the oil will sell our own oil.
07:12We will sell our own oil.
07:14OPEC Plus also said that we will increase our production.
07:17Then, where is the problem?
07:18Why is crude not getting dirty?
07:20Why is it coming down?
07:21Why is it coming down for crude oil?
07:22For India, there are other options.
07:24We keep the option of Russia from oil.
07:26We keep the option from oil.
07:40Well, it is more important.
07:47The Lösung is not marketable.
07:48The other options are the most open price.
07:51The other options are the most open price.
07:53We all know that the oil is also the most open price.
07:56We are in the middle price.
07:59It is not clear until the oil prices will remain elevated.
08:03This tension is now made and the roots are blocked.
08:09It is not about whether oil is or not.
08:11Oil is still there, but it will reach us to us.
08:14Okay, wherever we live, they are also the suppliers.
08:19But they may not be able to meet all our needs.
08:21I mean, India is a huge importer of oil.
08:23And it cannot be met only through maybe Venezuela or the US
08:28or Russia.
08:30I mean, we have to be dependent on these Middle East countries,
08:35these Gulf countries for oil.
08:38And that's true not only for India,
08:40but most of the oil importing countries in the world.
08:43So, that is the reason I would say
08:46that oil is still at $100 per barrel level.
08:51Because the tension is still there.
08:53The tension is still there.
08:55And the other thing about the discount is,
08:58the price of $10 discount doesn't change the overall bill dramatically.
09:04Right?
09:05Because as I said, the real issue is the volume we import.
09:08So, the dependence comes not.
09:10And then there are hidden costs like shipping, insurance, payment risk,
09:15which further raise the effective cost of discounted oil.
09:19So, the long term solution is not a cheaper supplier.
09:23Right?
09:24It's more about reducing dependence on oil itself.
09:27And the resistance is still there.
09:33The duration of the oil itself is still there.
09:36The issue of the oil お店 to the oil itself is still there.
10:00In the near future, sir, if you are watching the growth of crude, will we reach the 70-75 levels?
10:10We, I mean, average, this year, 70-75 is not possible in FY27. I mean, as per my estimates, we
10:20can't see the future but then we can just make some estimates.
10:24So, now, we are already two months into FY27, right, towards the end of May.
10:31And oil is trading at $100 plus in this quarter. The average oil price, I would say, will be somewhere
10:37around $100, $100, $100, $100, $100, $100.
10:39Next quarter, I don't see a sudden fall or something, right.
10:44So, on average, we are expecting oil price to be somewhere around $80 to $85, maybe up to between $80
10:51and $90 per barrel in our baseline.
10:56So, yes, but by third and fourth quarter, it may come down to $70, $75, but the average would be
11:02somewhere around $80, $85 to $90 for FY27.
11:06Okay. Coming back to India, sir. RBI is now very trying to stabilize the price of the price.
11:14In reports, we have seen that the reserves are also taking the price of the price.
11:36So, RBI has not done the rate hike, the rate drop also did not do the rate hike, but what
11:42will the rate hike happen?
11:44Yeah, I mean, if there is no rate hike, RBI may adopt a more hawkish tone this time.
11:56Okay.
11:57I mean, maybe a small signaling hike is also possible if inflation risks rise.
12:03Now, oil prices are starting to increase the price.
12:05So, now, there will be a higher oil prices and inflation.
12:14But a panic or emergency move is unlikely by the RBI in June 5 meeting.
12:19So, I expect more hawkish tone or maybe a small token hike during June 5 MPC meeting.
12:27Let's see, RBI is very data-driven and prefer gradual steps.
12:31And many times, only communication is not enough to stabilize the market.
12:35So, yeah, I mean, a hawkish tone is possible, a small signal hike is possible, but nothing kind of which
12:42can create panic.
12:43So, okay, and then what will be the impact on Indian economy?
12:48The commentary of RBI is expected hawkish, then what would be the impact on Indian economy and inflation as well?
12:57Look, in the Indian economy, our forecast, we have slightly revised down our full year 27,
13:07financial year 27 forecast to around 6.7%, from 6.9% to 7% earlier.
13:17Because we thought that things will stabilize a bit early, but it's taking longer than our anticipation.
13:25Also, the oil prices are trading above the level we anticipated earlier, maybe a couple of months back.
13:32So, if monetary policy's tone is hawkish, as I said, hawkish tone may not have any major impact,
13:42further impact on the economic growth, but then it will be kind of problematic if there is a sharp increase
13:55in the interest rates,
13:56either in the June or in the subsequent MPC meeting, then the growth may slow down further.
14:03Of course, the entire objective of the RBI is to control inflation and keep it within that 4% to
14:076%.
14:09I mean, that's the ban, 2% to 6%.
14:11But I think the entire struggle of RBI at this point in time to keep it within that 4%
14:17to 6% ban,
14:19anything below 4%, I think, is not achievable in this financial year.
14:23But even 4% to 6% is good enough and within the RBI comfort zone.
14:27So, that's what I am expecting, that inflation will be somewhere between 4% to 6% range for this
14:36FY27 on average,
14:38and even for the next two quarters.
14:42Okay.
14:43One more data, sir.
14:45IMF has started.
14:46April 2026 data.
14:49This data is based on the 3rd or 4th place we were holding in the global economy.
14:57We have slipped from this small number.
15:00The country, if I see, we are seeing 2 steps.
15:02We are seeing a drop in the 6th position.
15:06If India comes to the 6th position, it's about to be careful.
15:09See, rankings are headlines.
15:11I mean, these are like nothing to do with the fundamentals of the economy.
15:16Right?
15:17So, economy work on fundamentals.
15:20So, IMF's nominal GDP ranking has a lot of influence on the exchange rate.
15:26Right?
15:27Now, the dollar is strong and the rupee is weak due to dual factor.
15:32Right?
15:33First, because the dollar is stronger due to their own monetary policy decisions
15:38and due to our higher dependence on oil input.
15:42Right?
15:42So, this has led to a slip in the ranking.
15:48And this ranking is weak.
15:54But if our real economy is strong,
15:59we are not kind of concerned about it.
16:03And Indian fundamentals remain strong.
16:05We are the fastest growing major economy in the world
16:08with rising investments, improving fiscal discipline
16:11and expanding manufacturing and services export.
16:15So, there is nothing to worry about these rankings.
16:18These are just headlines.
16:19We should worry only if growth slows sharply.
16:22I mean, if the real growth slows sharply
16:25or the macron stability weakens.
16:28And at this point in time, this is not the case.
16:31So, there is nothing to worry about on that.
16:34Okay.
16:35If we don't talk about this,
16:37we are not going to worry about this.
16:39We are going to worry about this.
16:41We are going to worry about this.
16:41China has now two important bilateral meetings.
16:44One is Donald Trump and the other one is Russia.
16:49Putin is going to be meeting with this.
16:51And these two countries, China has been meeting with this.
16:54In the emerging markets,
16:55we have seen that China plus one policy is going on
16:58between causing the fact of normal property.
16:59This is the situation that actually has been meeting with this.
17:02China has also been meeting with China,
17:03the US and Russia are in the US.
17:07China has had different deals with other issues.
17:09How do we have a lot of discussions?
17:12How do we make this situation?
17:17What is it saying?
17:23It is not that what we have to do with China.
17:28In the US and Russia.
17:28other right it's about working issue by issue with different partners so China
17:34apne strategic space but across maybe trade technology security or
17:41hummati strength yeah key hum US Europe Russia Global South sabke saath
17:47come kersakte depending on the issue and the best part is that a very few
17:53countries in the world have this kind of flexibility so risk tabata
17:58a jab China key alignment joe wo hamari security or supply chain co influence
18:03katiya khada pochati ya squeeze karti so I think that's why India is focusing on
18:09defense capability technology partnerships supply chain diversification so the
18:15broader picture is that India's credibility and stability gives us a seat
18:20at every major table in the world and this China kind of China's
18:27alignment with both US and Russia at this point in time is not a major concern
18:33but this is something which is a kind of which needs to be closely watched track
18:40and then accordingly we need to act but at this point in time I don't see any major
18:45challenge for India not a major challenge so just one question out of curiosity
18:51we are talking about dollar and rupee and you have understood the global economy
18:56scenario we have understood the situation of global economy
18:58we have understood a lot of data from US economy when it releases and
19:03global markets and it is looking at global markets
19:06when the US has released a lot of data from US we have seen that there is a bit of
19:10tension
19:10of the situation in job numbers and employment numbers and other way on the
19:15economy pressure also has increased on the economy but also dollar is strengthen
19:19is it possible yeah see I mean multiple factors so as we know the US interest rate
19:28is now on the historical level and this is one of the reasons which is keeping US currency
19:39US dollar quite strong because when the interest rate is high in US and US is one of the safe
19:45haven for the entire world like for all the investment. So if all the investments will
19:50go to US then the dollar will be strengthened and the dollar will strengthen. But when you
19:56have elevated interest rate levels so economic activity slows down right because
20:01production is expensive, inflation is expensive. I mean monetary policy is one way to control
20:10inflation but sustained high monetary policy can also kind of elevate, keep the inflation
20:16at an elevated level right. So when economic activity slows down there are like increase
20:23in unemployment rate. So that's why I said ki US may and the domestic problems are bigger
20:30for any country rather than these external things. So I would expect that US may cut down
20:38rates in coming months or coming quarters which will maybe further weaken the US dollar and
20:47help kind of Indian rupees to kind of gain some strength against the US dollar. So this is
20:54quite possible but yeah so I mean that's my view I would say on the US dollar strength.
21:00Okay.
21:22Thank you very much.
21:54Thank you very much.
23:27Thank you so much.
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