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Is diplomacy still a viable path forward or merely a temporary pause in a deeper, enduring conflict? #AgendaAWANI tonight at 9pm.
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00:06Hi, I'm Luqman Haris and you are watching Agenda Awani.
00:10Now the world is on the edge in the on-again, off-again peace or ceasefire agreement between the United
00:16States and Iran in regards to the ongoing conflict.
00:19And of course, perhaps unlike most recent conflicts in memory, this one is particularly related to almost everyone's lives.
00:27In terms of energy security, in terms of economic certainties or uncertainties rather around the globe and how we will
00:34be affected by this, some would call strategic ambiguity.
00:39So what will happen next and how will it affect all of us?
00:44So to discuss this, I'm joined today in the studio by Professor Rowena Abdul Razad, lecturer of history at the
00:49SOAS University of London.
00:51Professor, thanks so much for joining us.
00:52Thank you so much for having me.
00:53First of all, as of this recording, because things are moving really quite fast, as of this recording, it is
00:59said that the two countries are close to an agreement.
01:02We do not know yet much about the agreement. We don't know how it would look like.
01:07So what do you foresee will be the key points in this new agreement and how might they be different
01:13from that of the previous one?
01:15It's an ever-changing situation. It's very hard to say.
01:19But what we do know is that we seem to be close to an agreement.
01:24What Iran and the U.S. have firstly agreed upon is to extend the ceasefire by another 60 days, which
01:30would technically allow for the negotiators to iron out the finer points of the agreement.
01:36We know for sure that the Straits of Hormuz is going to be a key issue, how it will remain
01:43open, to what extent will the technicalities be able to go through.
01:49For example, Iran wants to make sure that it is able to hold on to its control of the Straits
01:54of Hormuz.
01:54The U.S. wants to make sure that ships can go through without too much impediment.
01:59And then we have connected to that the U.S. blockade as well.
02:03So they need to iron those out.
02:05Another big key issue will be the war itself.
02:11So Iran needs guarantees that the U.S. won't attack them again.
02:14And this is going to be quite hard to guarantee because the U.S. wouldn't necessarily say that they'll never
02:19attack Iran in the future.
02:20They'll always want to keep that as an option.
02:23So that's going to be hard.
02:24Another big thing is, of course, the other sort of longer term things like sanctions.
02:30How far will they remove the sanctions and allow for Iran to trade more freely?
02:36And the biggest part, of course, the biggest part of the deal will most likely be the nuclear issue.
02:41So this is a sticking point for both the U.S. and Iran for many reasons.
02:47Yeah, we do not yet know much about it.
02:49But I think one thing is quite clear in the sense that this particular agreement will be just an extension
02:56of the ceasefire and not a long-term peace agreement.
02:59We're far from that, right?
03:00Can we just establish that?
03:02Yes, to some extent, yes.
03:04They're kind of connected.
03:06So you've got the immediate war.
03:07But Iran and the U.S. are tacking on other points.
03:11For example, besides the nuclear issue, the sanctions and so on, we also have Lebanon.
03:15So Iran wants to make sure that Lebanon is part of this agreement.
03:20So the agreement is almost trying to solve many things at the same time.
03:23The short-term issue of the war itself that broke out in February this year and June last year as
03:28well.
03:29And then the longer-term issue, which is what will Iran look like on the world stage?
03:38How will it act with U.S. and European allies?
03:41How will it act with its Gulf neighbors, other Middle Eastern neighbors?
03:45And of course, we haven't even covered Israel yet.
03:48So the ceasefire agreement seems to cover a lot of bases.
03:54Yeah, so I think it looks as though they are trying to lay the foundation for something more stable and
04:00more comprehensive moving forward.
04:01And you mentioned some of the key points.
04:03And some of the key points of contention have stood for a long time.
04:08Denuclearization, the end of Iranian support for regional forces, lifting of sanctions, as you've mentioned.
04:13It's like the old adage of an unstoppable force meeting and immovable objects.
04:19So ultimately, big picture, what will give and why?
04:23This is a very good question.
04:24I think it will go down to basic things.
04:26In fact, what you mentioned in your introduction earlier, what's going to affect our daily lives?
04:31And Iran and the U.S. are also going to be affected by the war.
04:34In Iran, we've got very high inflation.
04:37They've got a huge economic crisis.
04:39They've got a water crisis.
04:40They've got all sorts of crises.
04:42And eventually, the government may have to back down on certain points in order to give away so that normalcy
04:50can kind of return to Iran on some level.
04:53The U.S., Trump has midterms as well.
04:55So eventually, he can't push for a war.
04:57A war with Iran is very unpopular, as we saw.
05:00But at the same time, let me just kind of check you on that.
05:03He does not have any more campaigns to run.
05:06That's true.
05:07So is it, I wouldn't want to say a scorched earth kind of policy, but he himself does not have
05:13much to lose.
05:15The Republican Party does have seats to lose.
05:17How do you think this will factor into him going all gung-ho on this war?
05:22That's a good point.
05:23And I guess it also depends on how much he's willing to take pressure from Israel as well, because Israel
05:27is one of the key drivers of the war against Iran.
05:30And it seems that Trump wanted something quick, easy.
05:34And, you know, back then, a few weeks, a few months ago now, he thought that the Iranian government would
05:39collapse and that there would be a regime change quickly and so on.
05:43That has not happened.
05:44So for Trump, he does not want a long-term commitment to the war.
05:49He wants to show something where he can, he wants something to show quickly, to say that this is a
05:53victory.
05:53I have achieved what I wanted to achieve in Iran and so on.
05:56But it is, does depend on whether he can give in or whether he can withstand pressure from Israel and
06:01for the more hawkish elements in the U.S. government.
06:04There are senators in the U.S. who want this war and who don't want to deal with Iran because
06:11they feel that it would expose their key ally, Israel, to other kinds of vulnerabilities.
06:15So there is also pressure in the U.S. to maintain this tension with Iran for long term.
06:23Right.
06:23So is this then a conflict that can realistically be resolved, no matter how long it will take, or only
06:29managed indefinitely?
06:32Hmm. It's, I mean, we can't, we can't foresee too far in the future because as you, as you rightly
06:38pointed out, Trump eventually will go away.
06:40The Iranian government eventually will change. Things change. So we can't say how far they'll manage it.
06:46I think what we're going to see is a kind of cold war between the U.S. and Iran where
06:50we see ups and downs in the relationship.
06:52And this is what we're going to see. We might see sort of more heated moments where you actually see
06:56exchange of missiles, fire, exchange of conflict.
06:59It's not, it's not unforeseeable. We might see this happen again.
07:02But at the same time, I think both realize, both Iran and the U.S. realize that no one will
07:07win any kind of war.
07:09Iran is able to sustain itself. And so the U.S. realize that they are not an enemy to, to
07:14be, you know, you can't take them for granted.
07:16They're able to sustain a war. They are able to produce missiles quite quickly. They're able to sustain themselves.
07:21And more cheaply as well.
07:22And more cheaply. And they're pretty efficient and so on. In fact, that's one of the things that I think
07:26will also be in the, in the deal is Iran's missiles capability, not just their nuclear capability, but what kinds
07:33of missiles that they can produce.
07:34And I think Iran, the U.S. doesn't want Iran to be producing too many of these missiles. So they
07:39want to kind of scale back.
07:40So all of these things will kind of factor in to whether, you know, tensions go up and down.
07:47Ultimately, no one wants a long-term war. So I think it's just managing at this point.
07:53It's interesting you mention that because do you think the benchmark of success for each country is vastly different?
07:59What I mean is that for the United States, victory would be, almost mean total victory.
08:05It would almost certainly involve ground troops, total capitulation by Iran, possibly regime change, boots on the ground, things like
08:13that.
08:14But as for Iran, it's more of a war of attrition in the sense that if it survives, it is
08:18perceived as having won or at least winning.
08:21Do you think this is the case?
08:23I think so. And I think a ground invasion, I don't know. I mean, it's, that's always an option.
08:30But it's not an, it won't be an easy ground invasion. Iran is huge. It's a massive country, very difficult
08:39terrain.
08:39The U.S. famously tried to save some hostages in during the hostage crisis and their helicopters crashed very quickly
08:48in Iran.
08:48So I think the U.S. actually has bad memories of ever trying to invade Iran.
08:52So it's, it's not going to be something that they'll necessarily do.
08:57But for Iran, I think any kind of show that they're able to, in a way, not lose is a
09:05kind of victory for them.
09:06Iran is very good at using, at using propaganda and using this as a way to kind of build support
09:14for the government.
09:15And we've seen this already in Iran. They've used this war as a kind of war to bring elements in
09:20the country together, to also show that Iran is very strong.
09:25You know, Iran had been facing some sort of crisis as well, economic as well as a legitimacy crisis of
09:31some sort.
09:31You know, there were lots of demonstrations and so on.
09:33So Iran has successfully used the war to kind of bring everyone together.
09:37So Iran is very smart in this sense, and they'll use this war for that kind of benefit.
09:42And, you know, the different factions that exist in Iran, the more hardline factions, they're going to use this as
09:47well as a way to, you know, strengthen their position, as they did in the Iran-Iraq war as well.
09:55So they can, they can, they can prolong it for as long as necessary.
09:58War always galvanizes, right?
10:00Correct.
10:01Coming back to what you said earlier, I wanted to ask you what needs to change for any agreement to
10:06strive for long-term peace rather than just a temporary relief.
10:09But you mentioned earlier that it would just be something that's probably just managed Cold War, which is pretty much
10:14the status quo pre-Trump.
10:17Yeah.
10:17Is that the best order in terms of the U.S.-Iranian relationship that we can hope for?
10:24No, I mean, there are, I mean, Trump himself, he realizes that not everything is forever.
10:31Even with the nuclear issue, he has suggested a 20-year pause on the, on the program.
10:38So to kind of give way for, you know, the, the nuclear issue to kind of die down a little
10:43bit, but also for the hardliners in the Iranian government to kind of back away from the, the, the issue
10:50itself.
10:51So the nuclear issue is very, is a little bit complicated.
10:54The U.S. wants Iran to completely give it up, denuclearize, get rid of all kinds of uranium deposits that
11:02they have, stop the enrichment program and so on.
11:05But for Iran, it's actually more than that.
11:07It's a question of sovereignty.
11:08Yep.
11:08It's the ability, it's the right of a country to have a nuclear program to, for civilian purposes, they've said
11:15many, many times that they do not wish to develop a nuclear weapon.
11:19The UAE has a nuclear program.
11:21So for Iran, for them, it's a question of, you know, a country's right and a country's ability, you know,
11:28the country's, a country's right to have a nuclear program.
11:32So it's very hard, you know, you have a hard sticking point.
11:49It's very interesting you said that because you kind of led to my next question because I, I remember reading
11:55a quote by a former U.S. official who was involved in a lot of peace talks and negotiations in
12:02recent, well, decades.
12:04He said it's not about the demands.
12:06What makes a successful negotiation is not to focus on the surface, on the surface demands, but rather what are
12:12the needs behind each demand.
12:14And you brought a very interesting point, for example, it's not really about denuclearization, but it's about Iran's desire to
12:21be respected, to be seen as a sovereign country.
12:24So seeing as we have a list of common demands, which I've stated earlier, denuclearization, stop Iranian support for regional
12:33forces, etc.
12:34And those points always seem to reach an impasse for the past few decades, really, if not years.
12:42If they look at it beyond the demands and look at the prevailing or the needs underneath, how can negotiations
12:52probably be changed, tweaked to be more successful or at least to achieve more sustainable and meaningful progress?
13:01That's a very good question.
13:03And I guess it also depends on the negotiators, but also the third parties involved, countries like Pakistan, countries like
13:09Oman as well.
13:10And I think this is one of the things, I mean, this is tied to your question.
13:14We also need regional partners involved as well for a longer term peace process.
13:20And even the Iranian foreign ministry has actually said this.
13:22They said that whatever peace plan that goes through needs to also involve their neighbors, particularly Oman, who they're quite
13:29close to.
13:30So I think this is also part of this need to one, one, feel respected, but also feel part of
13:37a wider community.
13:39And I think Iran doesn't, even though it has acted as if it wants to be isolated, it doesn't want
13:43to work in isolation.
13:45So I think any kind of negotiation where they might feel more respected, more open is if other parties are
13:51involved and can support them.
13:53And this may, you know, then we can think about the role of China, Russia, for example, as well.
14:00And again, I don't, none of us really know the mechanics of the negotiating process itself and how U.S.
14:07and Iranian negotiators are actually communicating.
14:09But I think it should be noted that they've done this a long time.
14:14You know, they've been negotiating, they've been trying to get a negotiation.
14:17Which is a good thing and a bad thing, depending on how you look at it.
14:19True, true.
14:20But, and I think Iran, I mean, the fact that they still want to go back to the negotiating table
14:24is very encouraging.
14:25Yeah, that's right.
14:26Despite the fact that a lot of the people that the U.S. were negotiating with before the February war
14:32have been killed.
14:33So the fact that they've gone back to the negotiating table sort of says a lot about what they want.
14:39And that is to be part of the international community.
14:41Some things can be measured more tangibly, right?
14:44You talk about national interests, you talk about military, you know, needs and demands and things like that.
14:50You talk about the regional economy.
14:52Because you mentioned the Gulf countries playing a key part in negotiations, not just short term but also long term.
14:57But there are also more subjective, intangible factors.
15:02For example, the difference in religious, you know, beliefs and sects between Iran and basically every other country surrounding it.
15:11How big of a role do you think this is playing in terms of keeping bad blood between Iran and
15:16Gulf countries?
15:17That's a very good question.
15:18I like to think that it doesn't.
15:21I mean, maybe that's the slightly more naive part of me.
15:23But I really genuinely think that these countries are able to look beyond that.
15:28And I think that they can.
15:30Saudi and Iran, for example, they've already taken a lot of steps to improve their relations.
15:36Many Iranian pilgrims went for Hajj.
15:38They were allowed to go for Hajj.
15:40They stand among other Sunni brothers and sisters in Hajj.
15:44So that sort of says a lot as well about the relationship.
15:47And Iran famously doesn't really use religion that much.
15:51I mean, there are exceptions, for example, with Hezbollah, the support for the Lebanese Shii party, Hezbollah.
15:58Yes, definitely there is elements of religion in their foreign policy.
16:01But on the other hand, they also look beyond that.
16:04For example, they're very close to Armenia, which is a Christian country.
16:08And so, again, with their Sunni brothers in the Gulf, they're also able to kind of look past religion.
16:15And I like to think that the Gulf countries are also the same.
16:20And so they're able to kind of have a relationship with Iran.
16:23What is sort of stopping it is the fact that Iran attacked them, attacked the Gulf countries during this war.
16:30Not just US military bases, but also attacked infrastructure as well.
16:34So that's going to be the more difficult thing to kind of overcome.
16:39Then you have Israel in the region, obviously.
16:42How big of a wrench is Israel throwing in this?
16:44Not just now, but the past few decades, really.
16:46Because there is a prevailing thought that now at least,
16:51it is not in America's interest to actually prolong or even start this war.
16:55But it probably is for Israel.
16:59You have Israel and you have Iran, who's basically one of the founding mantras of the country is death to
17:04Israel, right?
17:06How will this be tenable moving forward as long as Israel is there influencing affairs?
17:11That's very, it's, I don't think, I think that Iran, sorry, excuse me.
17:16I think that Israel will always play a huge role in the Middle East.
17:19But also, if we look at Israeli domestic politics, it's also quite interesting.
17:23The Netanyahu government is on its own, it's on its last legs.
17:29We're hearing that they're going to call for new elections.
17:32The ultra-right, the ultra-orthodox elements in the government are kind of imploding a little bit.
17:39They're turning on themselves.
17:39So we're seeing a lot of tension.
17:41And we're seeing a centrist right opposition that might actually, that might actually win the next elections.
17:49They have said that the Israeli army is quite tired.
17:55You know, the genocide in Gaza, the land grab in the West Bank, it takes a toll on Israel.
18:03And there have been sort of calls within Israel to kind of stop all of these kind of military campaigns
18:11abroad and in Palestine, against Palestine.
18:15So also, depending on Israeli sort of energy, whether they're able to play even a bigger role.
18:21And I think ultimately, if they're able to kind of broker peace deals with Arab Gulf countries, Iran aside, Arab
18:30Gulf countries, they might feel less threatened.
18:33Ultimately, Iran has been quite threatened, quite Israel, sorry, Iran's presence in the region has been quite successfully thwarted.
18:43You know, Hezbollah has been quite weakened, Hamas has been quite weakened.
18:49So as far as Israel is concerned, Iran's regional role has been also quite weakened.
18:56And the war, as they've seen, Iran is not easily defeated.
19:01So for Israel, they'll have to also change tactics depending on what happens domestically and also the kind of energy
19:06that they have for any kind of long-term conflict with Iran.
19:09Right. Saudi Arabia was also in talks to normalise relations with Israel, right, before the 2023 Gaza genocide made the
19:16position untenable.
19:17So you do see a future or you do foresee a future, no matter how long from now, that these
19:23countries can still exist pretty much as they are, somewhat peacefully.
19:29It's possible. It's possible. But I think that there is still, because of October 7th, what happened to October 7th,
19:35that Saudi Arabia has kind of turned away from normalisations with Israel for now.
19:40We can't, we'll put the other Gulf states aside for now, but for Saudi Arabia, they've not.
19:44And they've actually returned to trying to focus on being sort of a leader of the Arab world to some
19:50extent.
19:51And Iran has also shown that it can attack Israel.
19:54So I think Israel now has to rethink what it wants in the future.
19:59But if Israel is able to kind of not, it uses the fact that it's threatened by the Arab Gulf
20:06states or the Arab world, Iran,
20:08it uses that as a way to bargain with the U.S., as a way to say that they need
20:14U.S. aid.
20:16But if that threat is no longer there, then Israel can't use that anymore.
20:20So maybe normalisations might be something that might stop them from continuing being influential in the region.
20:29But it's hard to say because it looks like under this government and in this current climate in Israel,
20:34they're not going to stop.
20:36They're going to continue the war in Lebanon.
20:38They're going to continue the genocide against Palestinians.
20:41And they're going to pressure a long-term campaign against Iran and any kind of friends of Iran.
20:49So it's hard to sort of say for now.
20:52I want to go back to the U.S. and Iran.
20:54Okay.
20:55I want to probably be a bit more subjective and philosophical, if you will.
21:01Talking about long-term peace or a good, if not excellent relationship between the U.S. and Iran,
21:06at least a tenable relationship, how much of it, in terms of obstacles,
21:11how much of it is technical disagreements and how much of it is just deep mistrust?
21:18It's a good question.
21:19There is a bit of both to some extent.
21:23There's mistrust because of the fact that the U.S. attacked Iran last year.
21:27That was the first time that the U.S. had directly attacked Iran.
21:30So from Iran's point of view...
21:30Not much since 1979.
21:321979.
21:33It's been bruising, right?
21:34It's been...
21:35But there have been moments of closeness.
21:38Even throughout the Iran-Iraq war,
21:40the U.S. actually did try to improve relations with Iran.
21:44And then you have the Khatami presidency in the late 90s, early 2000s.
21:49You know, with Khatami, the Iranian president at the time,
21:52he tried to promote this dialogue for civilization.
21:54He wanted to improve relations with the West.
21:57And, you know, we were quite...
21:58Things got a bit better.
22:00Even the United States, actually,
22:02they came out to admit that they had a role in the 1953 coup
22:05that removed the nationalist leader, Mohamed Mossadegh.
22:08So there have been times.
22:10And, of course, the Obama administration with the JCPOA agreement.
22:16So it's not to say that it's not impossible.
22:19So there are maybe technical issues in terms of, like,
22:23the nuclear issues, sanctions, and so on.
22:25But history has shown that they are able to kind of back away.
22:29You know, under the Obama administration,
22:30we saw removal of some sanctions.
22:34And on Iran's side, they're also able to kind of move away
22:36from this rhetoric of anti-US, anti-so-on.
22:41And even if they wanted to keep on with this anti-Western,
22:46anti-US kind of sentiment,
22:48this doesn't necessarily mean that they can't negotiate with the US.
22:51And if you speak to ordinary Iranians,
22:53you know, I think that they'd be...
22:55They're very open to Americans.
22:57They have nothing against the American people.
22:59I think they're just under a lot of pressure because of the sanctions.
23:03I think for the respective governments,
23:05I think national interests prevail.
23:06As long as they can work those out,
23:10all the others can be sorted, I guess.
23:12So, yeah, we have about four minutes left.
23:14So, big picture.
23:16Given the unpredictability of long-term US policy and government priorities,
23:20will Iran, or any other country for that matter,
23:24increasingly shy away from entering into any sort of long-term agreement
23:27with the US because you've got JCPOA, which they pulled out of,
23:31you've got TPP, which they pulled out of.
23:34Will this care run from striking any long-term deal,
23:36or in fact, any country from striking any sort of long-term deal,
23:39and what will this mean for the future of the world?
23:41That's a good question.
23:43Many people are sort of saying that everyone's going to wait until Trump leaves,
23:46and then they'll make a proper long-term deal.
23:49Yeah, because he's just an aberration.
23:50Aberration, exactly.
23:51He's just a moment, and he changes his mind.
23:54He's quite capricious, so it's quite hard to kind of follow him.
23:56So, it's very possible that Iran might just focus on a short-term deal,
24:00a main thing being the ceasefire, a release of Iranian assets,
24:05reopening of the Hormuz Straits,
24:06and that any kind of longer-term deal wait for later.
24:11And it's very possible that they'll do that.
24:13And besides, any kind of longer-term deal cannot just involve the US and Iran.
24:17It has to involve other partners as well,
24:21Europe, Israel, other Middle Eastern countries,
24:24namely the Gulf countries.
24:26So, it's possible they'll just wait until then.
24:29Professor, thank you for your time.
24:30Professor Rowena Abdul Razak,
24:31Lecturer of History at the SOAS University of London.
24:34Of course, we at Astro Awani will continue to monitor this situation
24:36and analyse and discuss how all this will affect us,
24:40not just now, but in the coming weeks, months, and even years.
24:44Stay tuned to 501 and all our digital and social media platforms.
24:47Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next episode.
24:53Bye.
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