- 1 day ago
It's not just about what data you have—it's about what you DO with it. Ed Norris, Steve Melewski, and Jeremy Conn react to a viral fan phone call breaking down the exact difference between the Orioles' analytical approach and the fundamentally sound execution of the Tampa Bay Rays.
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00:00Talking about Ben McDonald's comments from last night, got a bunch of phone calls, we're getting to you guys one
00:04sec.
00:05I want to read something that Booker sent in, it says it comes down to execution, gamblers use analytics too,
00:10but if you bet off of inconsistent data, you get bad results, same with the Orioles, they're inconsistent as hell,
00:14so if you use their data to make future predictions, you get inconsistent results,
00:19just go out and execute the fundamentals and then use the data as you see fit.
00:22I don't think there's anything wrong with that, I don't know about, the analytical data is what it is,
00:28I mean, it's just telling you how hard you're hitting the ball, the angle you're hitting the ball.
00:32It doesn't have anything to do with how they've performed before, it's how they're doing right now.
00:36So, I mean, it's fair. Let's take some phone calls. Sean is in Rosedale. Sean, you're on the fan.
00:43Give me one second to make my point. There's two points I want to make.
00:46One, the analytics that everybody's talking about, the hit, you know, the launch angles and the speed off the bats
00:53is great,
00:53but the real thing with analytics is on-base percentage.
00:56On-base percentage for analytics to truly work, 350 on-base, you know, on-base percentage.
01:03The reason that works is every three at bats, you should have one person on-base.
01:09Over the course of time, that will drive and run.
01:12If you look at the Orioles on-base percentage, it's horrible, and their swing and miss rate, it's horrible,
01:17which then leads into unproductive outs.
01:20So, the way analytics works is if you get people on-base and then you have productive outs, it creates
01:25runs.
01:26The Orioles are not executing on productive outs.
01:29When you have people on-base, how many times do you see a man on second and a ball pulled
01:33to the left side?
01:34Or you see a strikeout because a guy's swinging for the fence with a man on third instead of trying
01:40to make a productive out?
01:41It happens all the time.
01:43We have very unproductive outs, and we have very dumb at-bats.
01:48That is why the Orioles analytics is at work, and I don't care how hard you hit the ball off
01:52the bat.
01:52If you hit it to the wrong place, it's still going to be unproductive.
01:57Appreciate the call.
01:58I mean, look, I get all that, but again, we sit here and start talking about, there's so many things
02:03that go into it,
02:04but the analytics of the launch angle and how hard you're hitting the ball, you want to hit the ball
02:08hard.
02:09Like, again, if we put up four teams, I mean, we just talked about the Yankees, the Rays.
02:14The Rays have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, if not the lowest.
02:16The Yankees and Dodgers have large payrolls and can make up for injuries and other things that happen,
02:21but they are still using all the same analytics that the Orioles are using.
02:24So are the Rays.
02:25It's just they're producing.
02:27They're not.
02:28And I don't think it's any, I mean, maybe there's something to it with the approach they have at the
02:32plate
02:33and swinging for the fences or whatever, not executing the little things.
02:37But, man, I get tired of talking about analytics when it's information.
02:40We keep saying, hey, just say they're using the information.
02:44We can get rid of the word analytics.
02:45They're using too much info.
02:47I mean, and there's no surprise when you look at this.
02:49He mentioned on-base percentage.
02:50I look at on-base percentage and OPS now because, you know, I'm old.
02:53I had to shift my paradigm from batting average.
02:56So I look at OPS and I look at on-base percentage.
02:59But, I mean, it's no surprise.
03:00The Dodgers are first and OPS.
03:01The Braves are second.
03:02The Yankees are third.
03:03I mean, on and on and on.
03:04That's how it goes.
03:05Oddly enough, the Nationals are fourth.
03:07But, yeah, they're having an interesting year.
03:09Yeah.
03:10I mean, the Rays are eighth.
03:11And then you go to on-base percentage.
03:13It's similar.
03:13The Rays are third.
03:15Second are the Cubs.
03:16First are the Dodgers.
03:17I mean, these are the good.
03:17The Yankees are sixth.
03:19I mean, yeah.
03:20Okay.
03:22So, I mean, they're taking whatever.
03:24Look, intelligence is just intelligence.
03:25I don't care if it's, you know, you're working in retail and trying to figure out
03:28when your best customer flow is or you're in policing or the crime is occurring or
03:31in baseball.
03:32It's just intelligence.
03:33It's how you address it personally.
03:35You take the intel or the analysis, the analytics here, and you do what with it?
03:41That's the point.
03:42Exactly.
03:43Yeah.
03:43It doesn't do it for you.
03:44It just provides information for you.
03:46Exactly.
03:46Let's go out to Rich in Pasadena.
03:48Rich, you're on the fan.
03:50What's up, guys?
03:50Long time, no talk.
03:52Hey, so I feel like there's a broader conversation needs to be had, Jeremy, in the
03:57commission.
03:57I want to compare it to both of what you guys have done in the past.
04:00Like, look, everyone has data, but it's all about what you do with that data.
04:05So, Jeremy, you're a gambler, right?
04:07You look at the data.
04:08You build up strategy.
04:09You have a model.
04:11You know what works, but you adjust, right, based off of what the data is telling you.
04:17Commissioner, when you were running the city, I'm sure you were looking at data, and that
04:19data helped you determine, make decisions on what to do, but you're always adjusting.
04:24What the Orioles, I think the problem is, is their overall strategy, their vision for
04:28the team is what needs to adjust.
04:32And now we're looking at the results of them not adjusting, and now we're in a position
04:36where we're stuck.
04:39You can't adjust in real time.
04:41You have developed these players to do certain things and perform a certain way.
04:45That's not working.
04:46It's been exposed by the league, and now you need to adjust.
04:49And I don't have any confidence that Elias and Sig Meidel are able to do that.
04:54And I think that we need to challenge the owners to look at, do we have the right people
05:00in place to look at the data and make the right decisions for the vision of the club for
05:04the future.
05:05So that's all I got to say.
05:06Appreciate it, Rich.
05:07Rich, and by the way, Rich was the guy that asked the guy if he had earbuds when he was
05:12playing his laptop very loud.
05:14He said, well, then put them in.
05:15Nobody wants to hear that nonsense.
05:17At like three in the morning on a train coming back from New York.
05:20Yep.
05:21He's right, though.
05:22I think he made a bunch of great points.
05:24And Steve, what do you think about what Rich said?
05:26Do you see some validity to it?
05:29If you want a winning baseball team, you got to have the data and analytics.
05:35The difference between a team like the Rays and the Orioles is old school baseball.
05:41The Rays advance runners.
05:43The Rays play fundamentally sound.
05:45They run the ball down in the gap.
05:47They throw to the right base.
05:50They execute properly.
05:52They take players' strengths, and they run with it to 1,000%.
05:56So the Orioles have the data and analytics and the launch angle and the exit velocity.
06:01The stats tell us that.
06:03But they don't advance the runner.
06:05And they don't bunt runners.
06:06And they don't get bunt hits.
06:07And they don't cut down the lead runner.
06:10And how many fundamental errors have we seen from the defense this year?
06:13How many drawing errors have we seen in base running?
06:15So it's the old school things that worked in Brooks Robinson's day that would work today in conjunction with all
06:23the data and analytics.
06:24Steve, I don't know if you want.
06:25We talked to Bordick.
06:27I asked him this question why the Rays were so good despite the payroll and the no-name players for
06:31the most part.
06:32He said exactly basically what you're saying.
06:34He said he's the only team he's ever seen in the majors that played Pepper as a team every day,
06:42which means you're working on fundamentals, how to field, how to make contact, barrel up the ball, make throws.
06:50He said they do it every day as a team.
06:53He said I've not seen other teams do that.
06:55Yeah.
06:56I mean, look, this is – it's funny when you're bringing up the Rays.
06:59I mean, they literally have one superstar on their team, one, and that's Junior Camonero.
07:03Camonero, yeah.
07:04The rest of the guys, it's almost like – and even he buys into what they're doing.
07:07He knows what they need him to do.
07:09He needs to drive in runs.
07:09And you know what he does?
07:10He drives in freaking runs, sometimes with the long ball, sometimes with a base hit.
07:14Well, you take the analytics as against bunting, generally speaking.
07:17Not in every case.
07:19The Rays say the heck with that.
07:20We got all the data and analytics.
07:22I need to bunt here.
07:23You need to bunt.
07:24Situationally, right?
07:25Yes.
07:26Yeah.
07:26So, I mean, that's where we get into it.
07:29But, Ed, do you have any confidence at all that things change?
07:32Because it doesn't look like anything's coming to them to change.
07:35Like, Jackson Holliday just came back.
07:36You can get healthier and things can help.
07:38But I think we are where we are.
07:40And I don't know that things are changing.
07:42Because to expect them to all of a sudden hang a right turn and get this thing right back on
07:47the road,
07:47I just don't see it.
07:48Like, yeah, I mean, it's tough to do, you know, it's tough to look at what you've seen so far
07:55and say,
07:55Oh, yeah, yeah, I see it.
07:56I can see it here.
07:57No.
07:58I mean, we had, you know, two big bats, you know, hit home runs last night.
08:02Still lost the game.
08:05Because it's not, that's not going to do it.
08:07I mean, it's all the things we're talking about.
08:09Steve just talked about what Bordy talked about.
08:11It's, you take all the analysis you want.
08:14It's just information.
08:15It's what you do with it.
08:16And in-game decisions mean a lot.
08:18And fundamentals mean a lot.
08:20Like, what you do before you take the field.
08:22Because early in the season, I couldn't, I can't believe the number of guys I picked off this year early
08:27on.
08:27And throws to the wrong base and getting caught in, you know, rundowns.
08:32Like, how is this happening consistently?
08:34That's fundamental baseball.
08:36You know, it feels like the Rays are looking around like, who's going to win the game for us today?
08:39Oh, it's going to be Palacios.
08:40Oh, it's going to be Caminero or Diaz or Aranda.
08:44Somebody else is doing it.
08:45And then with the Orioles, you're like, oh, man, who's going to blow it for us today?
08:48Is it going to be the bullpen?
08:49Is somebody going to make a running error, a throwing error?
08:52What is it going to be?
08:53It's funny you say that because I've always, I've said this.
08:57Like, when your team is good, and I equate this to when I lived in New York.
09:02Look, the Yankees in the 90s were ridiculous.
09:06And they could be losing by three or four runs in the, you know, it's the top of the eighth.
09:12You know, they're coming up.
09:13And you never lost hope.
09:15You'd be in a bar and be like, yeah, they got this.
09:17It's like, because they did.
09:19They would end up winning those games.
09:21And that's what teams like Tampa do now.
09:22And I guess the Yankees still.
09:25So, you know, but Tampa, you know, they're down, right?
09:28Bottom of the eighth, they come up with four runs.
09:30And I'm sure their fan base feels the same way.
09:33Like, yeah, because I was uneasy.
09:35I know they always had to leave.
09:37And I'm like, eh, I don't know about this.
09:38They pulled off the Little League double steal and scored on it to add in another run.
09:42That was awful for us.
09:44That was just like, yeah.
09:46And it worked.
09:47Let's grab one more quick call.
09:48Vinny's in Perry Hall.
09:49Vinny, you've got the floor.
09:52Yeah, I just wanted to give you guys a call.
09:54Based on what you were saying, I was kind of compelled to call.
09:57I've never called a radio station in my life.
09:59All right.
09:59But, like I said, I was a little bit compelled given your conversation.
10:04Like, I just, like, with the Orioles, I don't know if it's the front office or the manager or whatever,
10:12but the past couple of years, like three, four years, they haven't been able to get a lineup together and
10:21just leave it.
10:21You know, I played baseball in college, high school, and what I know is baseball players are, you know,
10:29they're creatures of habit.
10:30And the fact that they can't put a lineup together and just stick with it for, like, a week.
10:34So why does it work for the Rays, then?
10:36Why does it work for the Twins?
10:37Why does it work for, I mean, there's tons of things.
10:39The Blue Jays did this last year.
10:40They had certain things that are set, and you move guys around.
10:42If you look at them, they're putting different players in the two-hole, depending on righty or lefty.
10:47They're, you know, if there's a lefty leading up.
10:48And the Orioles' first five is pretty much set.
10:50It may not be a one through five, but the players, Ward, Gunner, Alonzo, Basayo, you know, that's who you're
10:58seeing.
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