00:00You've been very, very transparent about where you are on the dot plot and what your forecast is. So let's start there. Where are you for this year? Where's your dot? What are you looking for? Yeah. So I'm unsurprisingly the lowest dot. I'm looking for about a point and a half of cuts. A lot of that is driven by my view of inflation. I gave a speech about this and you know about a month ago in December at Columbia University. My view is that almost all of the excess inflation over target is due to quirks of how we calculate inflation. So as you have talked about with many of your guests many times before shelter inflation really really lags
00:29a lot. And because average tenant rents have caught up to new tenant rents because market rents have been running at a one percent rate for a couple of years now I think it's appropriate to sort of think about underlying inflation as as abstracting from that a little bit. You know the shelter inflation is indicative of a supply demand imbalance from 2022 2023 not 2027. We need to be making policy for 2027 because policy lags. And their side of it is the portfolio management fees that I'm sure you've talked about again with many of your guests many times. Stock market went up mechanically inflation moves higher despite many of your other guests I'm sure no
00:59doubt telling you about fee compression in the asset management asset management industry for decades. So you abstract from those two things underlying inflation is running at 2.3 percent. That's what the noise of our target.
Be the first to comment