00:00Let's talk about what you're expecting in the news conference and in the statement later this
00:03afternoon. Sure. So clearly no, no, you know, actual policy decision. What I'll be watching
00:09for is what's the, you know, any sort of sense around this two-sided risk. It came up in the
00:14minutes. We don't think that that will happen. I think Chair Biol has to keep talking about
00:18patience, wait and see. There's so much uncertainty. There's uncertainty on the inflation front. Do we
00:23get those second order effects on core inflation? You know, what happens to wages? There's also the
00:28labor market. So there's uncertainty on both ends. There's this AI once in a generation,
00:32you know, productivity increase. How does the Fed sort of navigate this? And I think they want,
00:38he wants to come out of today, I think, with no market move because it's all about when does that
00:43straight open? What happens to the AI earnings? I think that's really, he wants to say nothing. I
00:49don't know if he's going to tell us whether he's going to stay on at the Fed. I hope he
00:52does. It's
00:53a risk management move, which he's brilliant for doing these risk management moves. But I think
00:58he just wants a boring, wait and see. You know, this is not our circus. That sort of an issue.
01:02We'll spend some more time on his future in just a moment. I just have one final question on a
01:06more
01:06symmetrical reaction function. If they try and articulate that later this afternoon, would you
01:10believe them? I mean, I think they are data dependent. So, but I think if they signal that
01:16a hike is as likely as a cut, I think the market's going to react. I don't think we're priced
01:21for that.
01:21We were maybe, you know, two weeks ago, but now we've actually come back. We've, we've, I think
01:26we realize the market realizes that the bar to hike is high. If they say it's equally likely, I think
01:31the market will react. I would look to fade it because here's the issue. Oil prices are high and
01:37those, you know, forwards are starting to move up. There's a nonlinear impact at some point. It's very
01:43hard to argue at what level of these longer dated forwards. If oil prices stay high, that's a hit to
01:48consumer, real disposable income. That's a hit to margins potentially with, with companies. I think
01:53it starts to wear on growth, but I think, you know, so do they actually end up hiking? I think
01:59very unlikely if oil prices stay here or higher, but the market's absolutely going to react because
02:04I don't think we're positioned for a symmetric reaction function.
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