00:00Mike McKee has your decision.
00:02No change in rates, but we have four, four descents.
00:07Lori Logan, Beth Hammack, Neil Kashkari agreed rates should stay on hold,
00:11but they did not support including an easing bias in the statement at this time.
00:16Stephen Myron wanted a quarter point cut.
00:18The last time there were four descents, October 6th of 1992.
00:23As for that easing bias, the statement still contains the phrase
00:26in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range,
00:31a line meant to suggest that the easing cycle has not necessarily ended.
00:36The Iran war figures prominently in the economic overview.
00:40Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices, the statement says.
00:47Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
00:52The committee remains attentive to the risks on both sides of its dual mandate, it says,
00:59even though recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.
01:05Job gains have remained low on average, the statement says,
01:09and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.
01:13The descents open up a whole new line of questioning for Chair Powell.
01:17Four descents would ordinarily be a sign of discontent with the chair.
01:22Since this is likely Powell's last meeting as the chair,
01:26it may not be anything more than expressions of concern about the toll of the war.
01:32At each meeting this year, the number of open market committee members
01:34who have worried they might have to raise rates has increased.
01:38We shall see when we get a chance to talk to the chairman.
01:41Mike McKee, stay close.
01:43I just want to run through the price action.
01:44I've got a big question to come back at you with in just a moment.
01:47Equities have stayed slightly lower, no drama here, down by 0.2%.
01:50Into this decision, yields were already elevated, particularly at the front end of the curve.
01:55They stay somewhat elevated, up seven basis points at 390.
01:58This isn't the kind of decision that moves around crude.
02:00Crude is still higher by 67%, 118 on Brent.
02:04Mike McKee, I just wonder, coming into this decision,
02:08we were talking about the possibility, the potential,
02:10this Federal Reserve introduced some symmetrical reaction function.
02:13But looking at that kind of dissent, I wonder if the dissent alone has achieved the same thing,
02:18just by introducing some two-way risk, given the level of dissent you can see in this afternoon's decision.
02:25That's a very good point, because, of course, if Powell leaves the Fed,
02:28that's one less vote that we know would be on the easing side at this point.
02:33We're going to have to wait for the minutes, unless the chairman wants to give us a number,
02:37which I doubt he will, of people who think that they should be at least suggesting the idea of raising
02:43rates in the future.
02:44But it's obviously grown since the last time.
02:47And feelings have grown more certain, at least among those who think that two-way warning should be included in
02:54the statement.
02:55It's very, very unusual.
02:56Obviously, it has been almost 30 years since we've seen anything like this.
03:00And it is definitely a sign that the Fed is split over this question.
03:06And one would think that if these people were willing to dissent because they wanted a two-way warning,
03:12because they did not want an easing bias in the statement,
03:17that they probably would have voted for a rate increase had that been on the table.
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