00:00John, because we've been eyeing the time frame of Sunday and Monday all week.
00:07We had a big debate on map discussion, especially on Monday, but let's first talk about what is upcoming here.
00:15We believe that severe weather is really going to start ramping up.
00:18We have it over the next couple of days, but we've been eyeing that time frame Sunday and the Monday.
00:23Let's talk about Sunday first, John.
00:24Yeah, our team of over 100 expert meteorologists here at AccuWeather were always actively debating the weather.
00:31And we did have a robust discussion looking at all the details and using our experience and the world's largest
00:37collection of real-time weather data that we have here at AccuWeather and forecast models.
00:42We use over 190 forecast models here at AccuWeather and consider those as we're putting together our forecasts.
00:47So Sunday is a more active, severe weather day as compared to Saturday, for example.
00:54It's focused further north here across parts of South Dakota into Nebraska.
00:59And damaging wind, large hail the primary concerns here, but there will be a few tornadoes too, Bernie.
01:06All right, let's talk about Monday.
01:08And this is where the debate really got, I don't know if heated, let's say robust.
01:16Here's the thing, Monday is the day that we do believe there is an outbreak, and we have pulled the
01:22trigger, John, on taking the word isolated out of the tornado section.
01:27You'll notice we're just going tornadoes here.
01:29And that's an indication that, in our mind, we believe there could be over a dozen tornadoes.
01:33We don't have any numbers yet, but we did decide to do that.
01:36But the debate was this.
01:38Do we pull the trigger and go a high risk across parts of Iowa and Missouri?
01:46And that's where the debate really focused on during that discussion.
01:51John, explain.
01:52Yeah, we're not there yet, but we're pretty close.
01:54I think a couple of key things as far as how we see the setup on Monday.
01:59This is likely a severe weather outbreak on Monday, and it can be a tornado outbreak if the factors come
02:06together and conspire in the same ways here.
02:10There's two areas that we're concerned about, sort of one centered over the Iowa area,
02:16and then another one from about Kansas City southward toward Oklahoma City in this zone.
02:22Down in the southern mode of this, the coverage of storms may be less, but the atmosphere is quite volatile
02:29there,
02:29and any storm that does develop in this area could produce a tornado and have also other severe weather risks
02:36with damaging winds and large hail.
02:38And then further north, there can be an elevated risk of tornadoes across parts of Iowa as well.
02:44So those are the two areas that we're going to be considering for a potential upgrade to high as we
02:48head through the day today.
02:49But we want people across this entire area in the central U.S., really from parts of the Great Lakes
02:55all the way down to Texas,
02:58central Texas in the Hill Country, to be prepared on Monday into Monday evening.
03:02This could be a very dangerous day.
03:04And, of course, I made my feelings known.
03:06I think it's time to go for a high risk.
03:08You and I are debating on that.
03:10We decided not to yet, but I like one of the phrases that Alex Sosnowski talked about.
03:16He's been here almost 40 years.
03:18The reason I'm more convinced is the high temperatures.
03:22And I think, as Alex talked about, it's like stacking the deck, right, because you're getting August heat and humidity
03:29in May,
03:30and that makes it a whole lot easier.
03:32That's a great way to look at it.
03:34Two things stand out when I look at this high temperature map.
03:36First is the intensity of the heat.
03:38As you mentioned, this is a heat that's more typical of July or August in some areas coming in May.
03:44So there's a lot of high-octane air fuel for severe thunderstorms.
03:48So that's a concern.
03:49And then the other thing is look at the variation, the sharp variation,
03:52between the much cooler air temperatures in the 40s across parts of the northern plains
03:58to that mid-summer heat and humidity.
04:02So what typically happens in there?
04:04That's where you get storms to develop,
04:07and that's the zone that we're most concerned about here on Monday.
04:11And a Monday evening, a great time to download the AccuWeather app,
04:13turn on those push notifications,
04:15and be ready across the central U.S.
04:17for an active and dangerous day on the way Monday into Monday night.
04:21And the more prudent argument is this.
04:23We don't want to go high unless we are 100% sure.
04:28That's right.
04:28And that's why I think the prudent approach,
04:30even though I do believe it is a high,
04:32is to wait a little longer.
04:34But certainly, John, it looks to us that that heat and humidity
04:38is going to be a big deciding factor.
04:40So you want to stay tuned.
04:41Of course, Jeff Cornish and Anna Azalian will be updating you this afternoon.
04:48Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
04:50John, thanks for breaking it down.
04:51Thanks.
Comments