00:00The overhang from the Iran mess is immense when it comes to the Trump-Xi summit.
00:08You know, when you think about it, Donald Trump had intended to arrive in Beijing as the conquering hero with
00:17a decisive victory over Iran under his belt.
00:20And instead, what the Chinese are seeing, as your correspondent Wendy pointed out, is a picture of American vulnerability, American
00:32overstretch, you know, tactical military brilliance, but strategic incompetence, frankly.
00:39And look, you know, the Chinese are good at math.
00:42It's not only Iran. It's Iran plus the legal rulings against the tariffs, plus the soaring gas prices, you know,
00:52plus the declining poll numbers in an election year.
00:55So all this adds up to leverage for Beijing.
01:00You know, Trump needs Beijing's help to get Iran to negotiate, to compromise, and he certainly can't afford to let
01:14China actually help Iran.
01:16And so the bottom line is that that means that Xi Jinping holds the high cards now.
01:21Do you think that's why we haven't seen China get overly involved, either verbally or even, I mean, you can
01:27debate how behind the scenes involved they have been in this conflict, but they've really held their fire when weighing
01:32in.
01:33Is it because they are waiting for the moment, like you just said, where the U.S. has to come
01:36with hat in hand and ask for their help?
01:40Well, yeah, I'd say the first reason is, to quote Henry, to quote Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca, I stick my
01:49neck out for nobody.
01:50Great movie.
01:51One of my favorites.
01:52Please carry on.
01:54The Chinese are not about altruism.
01:57It's all about China.
01:59They're focused on their own interests, and their own interests now are not getting stuck in the middle of a
02:07complicated diplomatic and military mess in the Middle East.
02:13It's to protect their own shipping, to protect their energy imports, and to stop the kind of economic damage from
02:23high energy prices that are suppressing demand for their exports.
02:30And at the same time, they don't want a direct confrontation with Washington.
02:35So they're perfectly content to have Trump on bended knee ask for help.
02:41But they've only barely gone through the motions of diplomacy in the Middle East.
02:49Just general statements and phone calls, meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, you know, calling for peace, calling for the
02:59Hormuz Strait to be reopened.
03:02But they're not going to take ownership of a problem created by the U.S.
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