00:00The ever-shifting contours of global trade, particularly given what's taking place in the Middle East.
00:06Joining us here on set is Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
00:11She's also a former acting deputy U.S. trade representative, and she, of course, in her previous life,
00:16she also helped form things like the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement.
00:19Wendy, it's very, very nice to see you. I believe you know the South Korean Trade Minister.
00:23Yeah, we go way back.
00:24Okay, so what do you think of the conversation, some of the topics that they hit?
00:28Does that seem representative of what's taking place?
00:30Absolutely. I think all of our trading partners in Asia are hoping that when President Trump meets President Xi Jinping,
00:38that they will confirm the stabilization in relations.
00:42At the same time, the minister touched upon the economic fallout of the Iran war,
00:49and even though while Korea seems for the time being to be doing okay,
00:54the longer the war goes on, the more Asian economies are going to be hit.
01:00And not just in oil and gas, as the minister said, it's going to affect semiconductors and tourism and food.
01:06So there's a hope, I'm sure, in Asia that we can find some kind of accommodation in the Middle East
01:13as well.
01:13So a lot in our president's agenda.
01:16Yeah, in two weeks.
01:17And by all indications, it does seem that it's still going to take place.
01:22And let's hope that continues to be the case after it got derailed the first time.
01:25How would you describe the relationship between China and the U.S. currently following, I think, November in Seoul, in
01:31Korea,
01:31and then, of course, through the war and where we are right now?
01:34I think both sides have made it clear that they're interested in stabilizing this relationship and de-escalating.
01:41But that's something that's easier said than done.
01:44Yeah, I was about to say, stable enough.
01:45Right, right.
01:46And so I think at this upcoming meeting, they're going to try and extend the truce that they reached last
01:51October,
01:52which is supposed to expire in October.
01:54But I think there'll be very modest deliverables to kind of build on the relationship.
01:59So in terms of deliverables, what can we expect from both sides?
02:02Well, again, I think they'll try and extend the trade truce.
02:05I wouldn't be surprised if China announces some big purchases of U.S. agriculture and airplanes and the like.
02:12And then there's a lot of talk about this new board of trade where the two sides can work together
02:18to facilitate trade in non-strategic areas.
02:21So put aside semiconductors and critical minerals.
02:24Are there sectors where we can trade and maybe even lower the tariffs in those sectors?
02:29Do any sectors come to mind?
02:31Well, I think for the U.S., we would like to see increased exports of aircraft and aircraft parts, medical
02:38devices and the like.
02:40And with respect to what we would want from from China, I think it would kind of be the low
02:45end stuff, the non-strategic stuff.
02:47All right.
02:48And on the Chinese side, what do you suspect they might be asking for?
02:51Well, I think that Taiwan will be front and center of all their demands, and that could even affect the
02:58trade, you know, what happens on trade.
03:01I also think they're going to want to see the United States further relax export restrictions we have on high
03:07tech exports to China, which I think is something that the U.S. is going to be cautious about doing.
03:13Well, I think that the U.S. is going to be cautious about doing.
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