00:00So I think this is a classic example.
00:02Unless there's some major disruptions, I'm pretty sure the U.S. military will probably render Iran probably defenseless rather rapidly.
00:10We might get that classic pump into the risks and dump afterwards.
00:14So I'm fully expecting come Monday, crude oil will probably be lower.
00:17Mike, I'm going to guess that you've been paying attention to what's been going on in Vienna with OPEC Plus
00:21and what we've heard from some delegates.
00:22I think two of them that we've we've cited in our reporting that there is interest among OPEC Plus nations
00:27to boost production more significantly as a result of this.
00:31For the layman, what would that mean if OPEC Plus were to do that?
00:34We knew they were going to increase production slightly.
00:36This would be a much a much larger increase if this comes to pass.
00:40I think the key word, David, should be mentioned is coordination.
00:43It seems to be pretty well coordinated.
00:46Mr. Trump has been quite friendly with Saudis and Middle Eastern countries for quite a while.
00:52He does have an election coming up.
00:54He has a motivated interest for a lower energy, and I think he's going to get it.
00:58So you're seeing part of that whole magic.
01:00In addition to what happened in Venezuela, there's pretty good indications that the world, the leader of the world's largest
01:05energy, crude oil, natural gas producer,
01:09a net exporter who wants lower prices will probably get in by the time we get to the midterms.
01:13Once we get through this discombobulation barrier.
01:17Mike, I want to ask you about something I was not even thinking would have a direct reaction.
01:22After these events, and that's cryptocurrency, crypto went up as much as 2.2% to a little over 68
01:29,000 per token after Iran confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
01:35Why and why are we seeing that movement?
01:37And where do we expect that to go?
01:39Is crypto usually this reactive to world events or does it defend?
01:43Does it depend on the event?
01:45Well, you're talking mainly Bitcoin is a risk on asset.
01:49You mentioned right when the strikes hit, initially dropped to 63,000 and it's pumped up to 68,000.
01:56I think the key word, as you mentioned, with the death of the leader in Iran is relief on a
02:02global basis.
02:03Relief.
02:04OK.
02:04Yes, regime change is difficult.
02:06But just taking him out like President Trump did with Maduro is a significant step.
02:11It's been, you know, it's been almost 50 years that Iran has been considered a bit of a, you know,
02:16an antagonist and a pride in the global scale.
02:19But Bitcoin is a good example of that relief, although Bitcoin's in a bear market.
02:23The stock market's much different, but I think it shows you that relief kind of kicking in.
02:27People are glad that the risks of the initial invasion are over.
02:31And Bitcoin is a good leading indicator.
02:32But one thing also, it's one of the most liquid markets it trades on weekends, so it's really the go
02:36-to.
02:37We've talked about oil, talked about Bitcoin.
02:39Let me ask you about natural gas, because that's certainly an issue at play here as well, as we look
02:42at the Strait of Hormuz and look at how ship traffic has really come to a standstill as a result
02:47of this happening.
02:48When it comes to LNG, what should we be paying attention to here?
02:51This is also an important part of the commodity story in light of these strikes.
02:55Good to go right there.
02:57My colleague, Will Hares, reminds me constantly that 20 percent of the world's LNG ships through the Strait.
03:03But let's remember the facts.
03:04The Strait has never been completely closed off and sealed.
03:07And we have to be careful with the bravado and the risks from Iran versus the facts.
03:11If the U.S. Navy did not cover this risk initially before the invasion, there would be shame on them.
03:17And I think it's very unlikely.
03:18Now it's shut off a little bit now for safety.
03:21But I think the U.S. Navy has this pretty well covered.
03:24But remember, one key thing about what happened here is we've had a precedent.
03:28In 1988, Operation Praying Madness, the U.S. Navy wiped out the entire Iranian Navy in a couple hours.
03:36So I'm not so much worried about that.
03:37But I think it's more of the fear right now that will be overcome within the next few days of
03:41this beginning of the hostilities.
03:44It is a weekend.
03:45And for those of us who are less familiar with the commodities markets, I do want to ask you about
03:51PAX Gold.
03:52This is a digital token that represents about an ounce of bullion.
03:55Can you explain to us why this is important, what we're seeing there on Iran war hedges, and if you
04:01think that's going to represent where the commodities markets are going as we turn into the week?
04:06PAX Gold and also Tether Gold are digital tokens that track the metal.
04:14And they're ideal for showing where things are trading.
04:16You can argue between them.
04:17But it's also an example of what's happening in that space.
04:19It's all going digital, tracking real assets.
04:21But I think I'm glad you went to gold because if you look at an asset that's really the most
04:25priced or geopolitical issues, it's gold.
04:28It was up 20% in the year.
04:29It's the most stretched versus its 60-month moving average in maybe 50 years.
04:34It's almost the most expensive ever versus crude oil.
04:37So I think if we get through this period with a little bit of detente and relief, realizing that China
04:44and Russia have lost Iran and Venezuela and Syria and maybe Cuba next,
04:49I think that gold geopolitical premium has a lot of risk of heading back lower as we head deeper into
04:54trading this coming week.
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