00:00Well, here at the Utilita Arena, the count for Birmingham City Council is still continuing as we go to air.
00:07And I'm joined by Dr Steve McCabe. Steve, why do you think Labour has performed so badly in this election?
00:15If we're talking about Birmingham City Council election, there are a number of factors which have counted against the Labour
00:20Party in particular.
00:21We've had the refuge dispute, which has gone on for over a year, and we've had all the news stories
00:26that have accompanied that,
00:28but bins overflowing, no recycling, the streets being sort of full of litter. That's been a big problem.
00:35We've also, going back a couple of years also, we had the problem of the Labour group overseeing the Birmingham
00:42City Council,
00:43the largest authority in Europe declaring bankruptcy, but of course the impact of that has been council tax has gone
00:49up
00:49over the last couple of years by 10%, not in the current year, I should sort of say.
00:53So people are paying an awful lot more for services which they feel are not up to scratch.
00:58So there are a lot of sort of deeply embedded problems, but of course Labour are also losing answers to
01:03the fact that it's a Gaza vote in some ways,
01:06particularly those that are sort of voting for the Green Party.
01:10They've aligned themselves to that particular issue, as well as the fact that of course they've become more left-wing
01:14than the Labour Party.
01:15But also we've then had the sort of, so far a number of independent candidates being elected in inner city
01:21wars.
01:22And of course what you've got is a very young population. Birmingham is one of the lowest age profiles in
01:27Europe.
01:28They want sort of change, they want to see things done differently, and I think it's a rejection, if you
01:33like,
01:33of the sort of traditional hegemony of the Labour and Conservative groups.
01:37So where are we going to end up? Well, that's a good question.
01:41So Birmingham could be in a quagmire with no party in overall control?
01:45I would say on the sort of the basis of the opinion polls I've been looking at over the last
01:49week or so,
01:51and of course opinion polls only count for so much, this of course is where it really happens, it's the
01:55sort of the actual votes.
01:57But of course the sort of the prediction is the Labour Party, which they won incredibly well four years ago
02:03in 2032,
02:04got 65 votes, 65 seats I should say, on the sort of the council, so you know, they were dominant.
02:10And of course you only need 51 seats, because of course there's 101 seats, so therefore over 50 seats becomes
02:17a majority.
02:18That's not going to happen. The Labour Party, they're going to lose badly.
02:21They're certainly not going to be in control, but the chances are that no party will have sufficient sort of
02:27seats
02:27to form a majority in their own right.
02:29So what we'll be into is potential coalitions, and of course then it's a question as to how big the
02:35reform vote is,
02:36how big the Conservatives are, that would be a natural sort of alliance.
02:39And then of course if it's not the sort of reform coalition sort of coalition,
02:42it would then perhaps be sort of Labour with the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and the Independents.
02:47But of course in all of that there is a price to be paid,
02:50and of course the price may be sort of too high for the established party to agree.
02:54We'll sort of see, but I think what we could be into quite potentially
02:57is what's been referred as a coalition of chaos.
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