00:00Labour has run Birmingham City Council for most of the past two decades, either with overall control or in coalition.
00:08But with local elections due next May, questions are now being asked about whether that grip on the city could be under real pressure.
00:16The council has faced a series of serious challenges in recent years, from deep financial problems to long-running disputes over services,
00:25all against the backdrop of rising costs for residents.
00:28To explore whether those issues could translate into political change, we spoke to Mike Olley,
00:35who was a Labour Birmingham City Councilor for more than 15 years,
00:39and has since spent over two decades as a political communist in the West Midlands,
00:44writing for the Birmingham Mail and now for midlandsgrit.co.uk.
00:49In May 2026, there's 101 council seats up for election, all the council seats,
00:55and I think it's highly unlikely Labour's going to win.
00:56I think it's highly unlikely because we're going to see an insurgence from reform and also from, if you like,
01:03the Gaza-inspired independent parties.
01:06Labour's got currently 55-ish seats.
01:10I think that's going to drop probably into the 20s.
01:13I think they could be the largest party, but I think if they want to remain in power,
01:18they're going to have to do a deal with another party.
01:20But I've got to say that's probably unlikely.
01:22Beyond the headlines, there is the day-to-day question many Birmingham residents raise,
01:28what they are paying and what they feel they are getting back.
01:31Birmingham's council tax has risen sharply in the current financial year.
01:35For some households, that rise comes alongside ongoing concerns about service levels and value for money.
01:42I think, yes, that sort of the Labour Party in Birmingham are going to lose control of the council.
01:47And not just lose control, I think they're going to get a right hammering.
01:50We follow sort of the national sort of opinion polls insofar as people are disillusioned with sort of Labour.
01:56But, of course, most particularly in the city of Birmingham, we've had a number of ongoing sort of controversies.
02:02The fact that sort of we had to, as a city, declare bankruptcy.
02:05We've had a bin dispute that's been going on for a year, but most importantly, people feel this in their pocket.
02:11Their council tax has gone up by over 20 percent and their services are declining.
02:15People are very disillusioned with sort of local politics.
02:18But, of course, they'll vote for somebody.
02:20You know, somebody has to get control.
02:21And we expect it to sort of be a sort of a mixture of reform and independence of councillors.
02:26I think what we'll have is chaos.
02:28Whether Labour ultimately holds on or not, the next council elections are shaping up to be one of the most significant political tests Birmingham has faced in years.
02:39Local elections are often decided on turnout, candidates and very local issues.
02:44And a lot can still change between now and polling day.
02:47But after years of Labour leadership at the council, the combination of financial strain, service disruption and public scrutiny means the outcome in May is far from a foregone conclusion.
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