00:00Sam and I discussing the National Football League as far as prediction markets are concerned.
00:04The NFL has been the one league, Sam, that has been sort of steadfast
00:09against incorporating these prediction markets. We've seen basically every other league
00:14come around to them a little bit, but the question is, will that change?
00:21Yeah, it's a good observation, Craig. You've had now the NBA, MLB has gone really far too,
00:27embracing these prediction markets. I think NHL was probably the first league that really kind of
00:33just acknowledged them in the first place, but then you have to look at, okay, you have all these
00:37leagues. Who is embracing it? Why are they embracing it? How has what they said changed? And then you
00:43have the NFL, which is always regarded, you know, by everybody, by, you know, people in media, by
00:48sports books, by everyone as by far and away the biggest league, the league that quite frankly
00:54doesn't need prediction markets, maybe as much as a major league baseball and the sport is different.
01:00So maybe it's not as conducive to live betting as, as it would be in the MLB. But for the
01:06NFL,
01:06they've played their cards very close to their chest. They have been skeptical and come out and
01:10said some things in the past. They've, you know, talked to Congress about being worried that they
01:15don't have the same protections that sports books have. They've even written letters to some of these
01:20prediction market companies as well, saying we're concerned about the potential for markets on
01:26injuries, officiating, which is a lot of the concerns that the other leagues have put out
01:30there as well. And quite frankly, not what I would think would be a huge point of contention for a
01:35company like Kalshi or Polymarket. If, you know, they want to continue operating in the U.S., I don't
01:39think it would really go over well whether or not it'd be legal to offer those kinds of markets.
01:45What leagues like the NBA have kind of changed their stances, what they've done is try to assert
01:51some more of that league element, league control in it. Like if this is going to happen, we should
01:55get a bite of the revenue, not dissimilar from what they did with sports books. You know, famously,
02:00every league was against that. And once they realized they could make money out of it,
02:04the thing really changed there. So I think the conversation for the NFL comes to money and
02:10revenue, right? The league doesn't need this. So how much money is the NFL going to be able to
02:14squeeze out of it? And I think by playing their cards very close to their chest, again,
02:18they're one of the only leagues that hasn't submitted a formal comment to the CFTC asking
02:23for how they're going to regulate it. I think that's really telling. And it's obviously the
02:27biggest league. We're not talking about a smaller league like the MLS declining. And I think they
02:32come from a standpoint of just a lot more bargaining power. And I'd be shocked if that stance doesn't
02:38evolve throughout the rest of the year ahead of next football season. Because remember, last football
02:43season was really only the first time we had this stuff fully available. Now they've got some time
02:47before the next one launches to maybe figure out some more relationships, partnerships, etc.
02:52And just how much revenue the league can take a chunk out of.
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