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00:00Hello and welcome back to In The Room.
00:02Cleo has been banging on about it for ages, but it's finally upon us, local elections this week.
00:06It's true, it's my Christmas.
00:08This week we're discussing what the contests mean for the Labour government and for the other parties
00:13and give you a little sense of what's going on behind the scenes.
00:16I'm Helen McNamara, the former Deputy Cabinet Secretary.
00:18And I'm Cleo Watson, a former Special Advisor in Number 10.
00:21And this is In The Room.
00:27Welcome back, everybody.
00:28Before we get into the bonanza that is the local elections week,
00:32we just want to say a big thank you for listening so far.
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00:58Now, I know that you're not, sadly, actually in the room with us,
01:00but Cleo's excitement is genuinely tangible, ladies and gentlemen.
01:04Cleo, get us up to speed with what's going on this week.
01:07So, this week we have some local and actually some national elections going on
01:12in the devolved nations up and down the country on Thursday.
01:14So, let's just have a quick reminder of what these local elections are for,
01:19because I think with all the chat about leadership contests and so on,
01:22we can kind of lose sight of what the purpose of these elections even are.
01:26So, fixing potholes, providing care for the elderly and disabled,
01:31let's agree that's pretty important, collecting rubbish,
01:33providing libraries and leisure services, things like that,
01:36and a matter close to my heart, overseeing planning applications.
01:40So, it's actually quite important, and it is really tangible.
01:43These are things that we feel around our local communities,
01:46and that is essentially what we are voting on.
01:49Although, I'm not voting on that.
01:51There are no local elections in my area this week, so I'm just a voyeur.
01:56Now, I mentioned that these are tangible for people on a kind of local level,
01:59but everyone will have seen in the press that these are also being treated
02:03as a bit of a referendum on Keir Starmer's leadership,
02:06and we will be getting into that later in the episode.
02:10So, there are 5,000 seats at play, 136 councils are up for grabs,
02:16and there are two sets of elections in nations.
02:18So, both the Welsh Parliament and the Scottish Parliament will be elected again on Thursday,
02:23and those are slightly level up from potholes.
02:26That's decisions that are affecting the NHS, education,
02:30and in Scotland, the Scottish Parliament has tax raising and big spending powers.
02:34So, these are very significant elections in those countries.
02:36Yeah, that's right. So, as Helen mentioned, there are 5,000 seats up for grabs.
02:41Labour currently hold 2,500 of them.
02:44So, they hold half of them, and some people are predicting they might lose as many as 2,000 of
02:49them.
02:50So, it's looking really quite bloody and bad for them.
02:54The Conservatives are also expected to do badly,
02:57but in a kind of amazing way, that's sort of priced in there.
03:00Kemi Badenoch's leadership does not seem to be under threat,
03:03despite what are expected to be quite heavy losses for them, too.
03:06They're sort of dovetailing in behind what is probably going to be a Labour disaster.
03:11Meanwhile, the reform and the Greens are expected to do very well, indeed.
03:17Then there's this funny little issue of the Lib Dems,
03:20who traditionally do really well in local elections,
03:22because unlike the stance that, say, reform have taken,
03:25which is just to go as large as possible on a national scale,
03:29the Lib Dems are really good at focusing their campaigning in certain areas
03:33and kind of picking off places they think they have a kind of fruitful shot at.
03:38There's also quite a lot of pressure on Ed Davey and his leadership of the Lib Dems
03:42to deliver some results here,
03:43because people don't feel that he's kind of cutting through
03:45in the way that the Greens and reform are.
03:48The thing I really want to impress, which I think is so interesting here,
03:50is that we have 25,000 candidates for those seats.
03:55So that is completely unprecedented.
03:58It's a big test for pollsters, by the way,
04:00because this is kind of brand new data for them,
04:02and they're making these predictions on reform,
04:04or the Greens doing so well.
04:06They don't really know.
04:07But that is so much choice for these individual seats.
04:11You know, there are some wards
04:13where people will have over 20 candidates to choose from
04:17for a single council position.
04:19It's kind of crazy.
04:20And the last time these seats were contested,
04:22we were in a very different politics.
04:24So these are the seats that were contested in 2022,
04:27when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister still,
04:29when Joe Biden was the US President,
04:32when reform didn't exist,
04:35and mortgage rates were 1.95%.
04:38The pre-trust era,
04:40before the horror of the October the 7th attacks,
04:43is very, very different.
04:44It feels like in four short years,
04:46the world has changed a lot,
04:48and that broader context will be in play too.
04:50So you're right,
04:51taken together with that,
04:52with the number of candidates,
04:54nobody's really sure what's going to happen on Thursday,
04:57but we're not going to let that stop us, Cleo.
04:59We will later on be having a go at what we think might happen,
05:03and the impact and meaning of those results.
05:08Helen, let's cast our minds back to when we were in government together.
05:11I was obviously on the political side,
05:13you were on the official side.
05:14How would we have been feeling this week?
05:17Local elections are odd, right,
05:18if you're in government,
05:19if you're in central government,
05:20because they both matter a lot,
05:21and don't really matter at all.
05:23So it's one of those places where the divide between official and political is quite strong.
05:28So I would have been,
05:30in my role as Deputy Cabinet Secretary,
05:32or before that as the Director General for Propriety and Ethics,
05:35would have been having a series of rows,
05:37effectively,
05:38with you and your people,
05:39about what it was okay to do with government resources,
05:42given there were some elections going on.
05:44And sometimes those rows got quite silly.
05:47Yes.
05:47So just to explain what some of those resources might have been,
05:51could the Prime Minister take a government helicopter, perhaps?
05:56No.
05:57How about if I wanted to campaign for the day,
06:01but I didn't really want to take a day off work,
06:03so I still wanted to be paid?
06:04No.
06:07Let's think.
06:08What about ministerial cars,
06:10or using ministerial offices to get some work done?
06:14No, you can't arrange a visit,
06:17which is a departmental visit,
06:18which coincidentally is in the place where you're trying to campaign.
06:21So effectively,
06:22the idea is you have these restrictions
06:23because you shouldn't be spending the money
06:26that taxpayers are paying for national government
06:28on effectively things that only help out one party.
06:31So you have really big restrictions for a general election period,
06:33and you do have restrictions for a local election period as well.
06:37And so all over Whitehall,
06:38there will be lots of people phoning up the team in the Cabinet Office
06:40and saying,
06:42Hi, my minister's wondered if I could just do this particular announcement,
06:46to which most of the time,
06:47if they picked up the phone,
06:48the answer is no.
06:49And some of them are a bit ridiculous.
06:51So I remember at one point being asked
06:53if Eric Pickles,
06:54who was then a government minister for CRG,
06:58could open some motorway service station toilets
07:00during the local election restrictions.
07:03Now, I had a lot of questions about
07:04why was he doing that in the first place?
07:07But you get these really kind of little things
07:10about can I do this announcement,
07:11can I do that announcement.
07:12You also get mysteriously,
07:14the government suddenly decides
07:15that things that the government's paid
07:16no attention to whatsoever,
07:18like potholes,
07:19you'll find that mysteriously,
07:21before the local election starts,
07:23then there is a fund created for potholes.
07:25Or the Mayor of London very recently
07:27has announced an initiative
07:29where all London boroughs will get youth clubs.
07:31Thanks very much.
07:33Not all London boroughs are having elections,
07:34but all of them are going to benefit from a youth club.
07:37So you get quite a lot of that
07:38and quite a lot of can I use a helicopter?
07:41The helicopter one is great
07:43because I think so many ministers,
07:45particularly if they have a very high profile job,
07:49are just used to being jetted around
07:51in really the most convenient
07:53and luxurious possible manner.
07:55And suddenly they don't have all those trappings
07:57and they're having to go off
07:58and campaign somewhere miles away.
08:01Public transport?
08:03What?
08:03Are you joking?
08:04Or worse, not even public transport,
08:06but a volunteer from the local party.
08:08I remember occasionally ministers
08:09being extremely cross
08:11about them having to cope with that.
08:13Because they're whizzing around
08:14in like a Nissan Micra with Neil
08:16who's telling them about,
08:17oh, if you look to your left, sir,
08:18there's a windmill.
08:20Although there are some ways around this,
08:23which I'm sure we can return to at some point,
08:25where you can get perhaps a donor
08:26who might be willing to donate
08:29a leg of, you know,
08:31a journey on their helicopter
08:32to get the party leader
08:34from one place or another.
08:35As long as it's all declared.
08:36Of course.
08:37It was also really fun.
08:38You mentioned what special advisors can do.
08:41So these are the political appointees
08:42who work for ministers in government.
08:44And there was a whole palaver
08:46at various points
08:47about whether special advisors
08:48could be involved in campaigning.
08:49And you get that both ways around.
08:51So you get some special advisors
08:52that you say,
08:53you definitely have to take a day's holiday.
08:55You can't possibly,
08:56on the taxpayer's dime,
08:57be campaigning.
08:58But you also get special advisors
08:59who really don't want to campaign,
09:02who are trying to get you,
09:05you as the civil service side,
09:06to say,
09:07well, I'm terribly sorry about this person.
09:08It's so important
09:09for the national interest
09:10that they manage to stay at work
09:11on this particular week.
09:13So that'll be being played out
09:14both ways around,
09:15I should imagine.
09:16Yes, and that's,
09:16it really does sort of,
09:18amongst the special advisors,
09:19sort the wheat from the chaff
09:20on like who's really interested
09:22in their party.
09:24And it's not as electoral chances,
09:27but they're really in the weeds
09:28of this kind of stuff
09:29and the party mechanics
09:31and the local membership
09:33and stuff like that.
09:34And the people who basically think,
09:36I wish I was at the pub
09:37with the journalist,
09:38but they're all stuck on a bus
09:39in like Torquay
09:40going around somewhere.
09:42And you have to feel for them, right?
09:43It's not going to be fun
09:44to be knocking on doors
09:46for the Labour Party right now.
09:48However, I would just say,
09:49if you've got any of them listening,
09:50it's really noticed and remembered
09:52if you don't show up
09:53when your party's doing badly.
09:54I really remember that
09:56about some of the Brexit days
09:57with Theresa May,
09:58that like it can be sometimes
09:59like years later
10:00that someone remembers
10:02someone who was as bad,
10:03is now an MP,
10:04or is now whatever,
10:04there's still a cloud of
10:06you didn't show up
10:07when it was raining sunshine.
10:08So no.
10:09Yes.
10:09And, you know,
10:10we're going to get into this shortly,
10:11but conversely,
10:12what is also noticed
10:13is various briefings
10:15against the leader of the party
10:16while you ought to be out
10:17just getting on with the job.
10:19And on a rainy week,
10:20the weather's turning this week,
10:21it's quite disheartening
10:22if you know you're heading
10:24for a disaster
10:25to also think,
10:26well, back at base camp,
10:28people are kind of
10:30packing up our tents
10:30and our food
10:32and we're just wandering
10:33into the wilderness, essentially.
10:34So probably the worst one of those
10:35that we would have experienced together
10:37was when there was
10:38some really weird period
10:40at the end of Theresa May
10:41when there was lots of weird periods
10:43at that time,
10:44it's fair to say,
10:45but where there had to be
10:46some European elections.
10:48Yes.
10:49So this is 2019
10:51European Parliament elections,
10:53which were odd, by the way,
10:54because we were leaving the EU
10:55at the end of the year.
10:56So it was really
10:58for a matter of weeks or months
10:59that these seats were happening.
11:01And it's my first experience anyway
11:03of the changing political landscape
11:06where suddenly we had
11:08the Brexit Party,
11:09if you remember,
11:09which was Nigel Farage's
11:10then vehicle.
11:11We also had Change UK,
11:13which was a mixture.
11:16What happened to Chaka Romuna?
11:17I know.
11:18And Anna Soubry.
11:19There were a lot of Labour
11:20and Conservative people
11:21who wanted another referendum
11:23and to rejoin the EU.
11:25And it was sort of
11:27the perfect protest vote
11:28because it didn't really mean anything.
11:29It was for about five months
11:31of further membership
11:32where they could go
11:33and have quite a plush time
11:34in the European Parliament.
11:35And it was the perfect way
11:36to give a middle finger
11:37essentially to your own party
11:39and particularly
11:40to Theresa May's government.
11:42And it was also a bit awkward
11:44because things like
11:46Rachel Johnson and Anne Widdicombe
11:48joined the different parties as well.
11:50Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister
11:51Anansiata joined the Brexit Party.
11:53It was the parliamentary Tory party
11:56was kind of feeling this
11:58on a very individual level,
12:00much like some Labour Party people
12:03will be feeling as well.
12:04And it was really painful
12:06and I'm afraid
12:07after those elections
12:08which were May,
12:10Theresa May was gone
12:11within a fortnight.
12:13So no parallels.
12:15No parallels here at all.
12:17So that's some of our memories
12:19from when we were doing this together.
12:20But what's going on
12:21for Labour right now?
12:22Well, one thing I think
12:24is worth thinking about
12:25is how these kind of moments
12:27can bring parties together.
12:29So, you know,
12:30there is a great incentive
12:31for the Labour Party,
12:32however much briefing is going on
12:34about getting rid of Keir Starmer
12:35after what are expected
12:36to be very bad results
12:37should band together.
12:39And in that spirit,
12:40Angela Rayner has done a video
12:43ostensibly supporting the Prime Minister.
12:45But should we watch it
12:46and dissect Helen?
12:47I used to talk about all the NHS
12:49and Nigel Farage.
12:50I got real part of the blame on him
12:51because I actually think
12:52he'd be better than Keir Starmer.
12:53Nigel Farage says
12:54that he wants a system
12:55that is a more insuring-style system.
12:58So that means you have to pay
12:59and that means that
13:00it's not free
13:01at the point of use anymore.
13:02I think that is really dangerous territory.
13:05It's a tiny bit of
13:06with friends like these,
13:08isn't there?
13:08I mean, so there is still
13:10an enormous amount of speculation
13:11about Keir Starmer's leadership
13:13and how secure that is.
13:14Everybody's doing
13:15what they usually do
13:16in the week of an election,
13:17which is, you know,
13:17broadly speaking,
13:18piping down
13:19for Angela Rayner
13:20to start her supportive video
13:22in the week of the elections
13:23with her child saying
13:25that Nigel Farage
13:26might make a better Prime Minister.
13:27It's an interesting choice.
13:28Out of the mouths of babes, Helen.
13:30It's not her point
13:31and she pushes back.
13:33She pushes back very beautifully
13:35with some twinkly music
13:36in the background.
13:37So I think that's the same
13:38as being wholeheartedly on board.
13:39Yes, and eagle-eyed viewers
13:41will have noticed
13:41that we're streeting
13:43another alleged contender
13:44has retweeted her video
13:46with a thumbs up.
13:48So I sort of wish
13:51that some of this
13:51is because people
13:52have clocked on to it
13:53being campaigning
13:54in Wales and Scotland
13:55where the NHS
13:56is in fact an issue.
13:58But I'm afraid that
13:58lots of the stuff
13:59you're seeing
13:59from the national government
14:00is nothing to do with,
14:01or sorry,
14:02lots of the stuff
14:02you're seeing
14:03from the national parties
14:04is nothing to do with
14:05whether your bins
14:06are going to be collected
14:06or all the things
14:07that you said
14:07at the top of the pod
14:09about actually
14:10what local elections are for.
14:11So it's a very,
14:13to have deliberately decided
14:14to try to make it
14:15a popularity contest
14:16on the national government
14:17is I think an odd choice.
14:18The reality is
14:19that Labour won
14:20technically a landslide
14:21in the 2024 general election.
14:24But it was actually
14:25paper thin.
14:26So it's actually
14:28the lowest overall
14:29majority vote share
14:31that a governing party
14:32has ever won.
14:34So where we talk about
14:35things like,
14:36you know,
14:37the parties are fracturing,
14:39the political system
14:39is fracturing,
14:40we've got all these parties.
14:41That was actually there
14:41under the surface.
14:42It's just the cracks
14:43are now appearing
14:44because these have,
14:45you know,
14:46reform and the Greens
14:47and so on,
14:47people have organised
14:49themselves into,
14:50I was about to say
14:51coherent groups,
14:51but not really coherent
14:53but they're under banners
14:55anyway.
14:56And so I think Labour losses
14:58will feel more extreme
15:01than on paper
15:03than perhaps is true
15:05in reality
15:05because these factors
15:06were already there.
15:07It's just now going
15:08to be in stone.
15:09So it's like the system
15:10writing itself effectively,
15:11do you mean?
15:12Oh, it's more entrenched.
15:14So if the 2024 general election
15:16was really a referendum
15:18on the Tories
15:19and getting rid of the Tories,
15:20Labour were the kind of
15:21default winners.
15:23Actually,
15:24if you look at lots
15:25of the seats they won,
15:26the people immediately
15:28below them
15:28were Reform
15:29and Lib Dem
15:30and Greens
15:31and you can see
15:33where we're heading now
15:34in those general election results.
15:37I think the difference now
15:38is that
15:39because they're now
15:40kind of official parties,
15:41they're organised groupings,
15:42we'll see that
15:43kind of fractured
15:44across the country
15:45in a different way.
15:45I mean,
15:46a good example of this
15:47is the Scottish National Party
15:49are not amazingly popular
15:51in Scotland.
15:52In fact,
15:52in some ways
15:53their support has dwindled
15:55in the last year or two.
15:56But Labour support
15:58has slid so much,
16:00the Scots and ATSA
16:01are the beneficiaries of this.
16:02They're probably going
16:03to win Scotland again.
16:04I find that extraordinary.
16:05I remember being in Scotland
16:07shortly after the 2024
16:08general election
16:09and going through some polling
16:10at that point,
16:11so it was in the autumn,
16:12where the Labour Party
16:14were very, very confident
16:14that that's what was going to happen.
16:16Look at what's happened in your,
16:17all what's about to happen
16:18in your beloved Wales.
16:19I know,
16:20I know.
16:20So just for context here,
16:23Labour have won
16:24every general election
16:25in Wales,
16:26like overall a majority
16:27in Wales since 1922
16:29and they have won
16:30control of Wales
16:32in the Senate
16:32since its inception.
16:34So since 1999
16:36and they are odds on
16:38to lose to applied
16:39kind of help by reform,
16:41I suppose.
16:42I mean,
16:42that is really extraordinary
16:44and also looking to London,
16:48which is obviously
16:48a very Westminster bubble thing
16:49to do to think about London.
16:51But I think it shows perfectly
16:53the fight on two fronts
16:55that Labour have
16:56with reform and the Greens.
16:57So if you go for some places
16:59like sort of Hackney,
17:01which is very close
17:02to where the Prime Minister
17:03has his own constituency,
17:06it looks like the Greens
17:07have got a real shot
17:08of having a Hackney mayor
17:11and perhaps taking over
17:12the council there.
17:14If you go just a couple of miles
17:16east towards Essex,
17:17Dagenham and places,
17:19it looks like reform
17:20are going to do really well there.
17:22So I think,
17:23you know,
17:24we'll talk about this later
17:25when it comes to our advice
17:26for the Prime Minister.
17:27But it's quite hard
17:29to kind of hold a coalition
17:31against both the Greens
17:32and the reform.
17:33They're both coming
17:34for their dinner
17:35one way or another
17:35and decisions have to be made
17:37after the set of local elections
17:39on who they're actually
17:40trying to fight
17:41in the next general.
17:43So as your view,
17:44it's two things coming together
17:45at once effectively.
17:46So it's both kind of
17:47the incumbent governments
17:49usually get punched in the face
17:50by local elections.
17:52Yeah, it's a midterm.
17:53Midterm.
17:53This is a particularly unpopular
17:55incumbent government,
17:57which I suppose is getting
17:57the kind of priced in,
17:58punched in the face
17:59as usual.
18:00But also,
18:01it's just another exhibition
18:03of how fractured we've got
18:04in terms of our politics
18:05in general.
18:06Yeah, I think that's true.
18:07It's also just
18:08the massive advantage
18:09if you're reforming the Greens
18:10of not being seen
18:11as the establishment.
18:12So we talked earlier
18:14about how the Conservatives
18:15are going to lose seats as well.
18:17It's just sort of priced in
18:18for them
18:19and they are not itching
18:21to get rid of Kemi Badenoch.
18:23So it doesn't feel quite
18:25as consequential
18:26and bloody, I suppose.
18:27And they're doing
18:28a kind of lessons learned
18:31regrowth exercise anyway.
18:32But this is essentially,
18:34it's not good news to them.
18:35Essentially,
18:35this is still
18:37a pushback
18:38against the established parties.
18:40It'll be interesting
18:41to see, of course,
18:42in the next couple of years
18:43before the next general election,
18:45how reform the Greens
18:46and so on
18:47actually get on
18:47with running these places.
18:49Well, that's, yeah,
18:49I mean, that's a really good point, Mike,
18:50because also
18:51it sort of doesn't matter.
18:52We still have
18:53a two-party system
18:55effectively
18:55when it comes to
18:56general elections
18:57because the way
18:57that our first-past-the-post system
18:59works.
18:59So even if you get
19:00massively diverse votes
19:02in the local context,
19:04you're not going to get that
19:05as a national outcome,
19:07I suspect.
19:08So it feels like reform
19:09have completely changed
19:10the playbook.
19:11Reform and the Greens have.
19:12I mean,
19:13the thing that Farage
19:15and Zach Polanski
19:15are able to do
19:16is be
19:17anti-establishment characters.
19:18People call it populist
19:19or whatever,
19:20but they are popular
19:22and crucially,
19:23they didn't have records
19:24to defend.
19:25I think there's something
19:26very powerful
19:27that both of them
19:28are able to do.
19:28They're at different ends
19:29of the spectrum,
19:30but they are both
19:32playing this fairness message.
19:33So Farage and reform
19:35do it about immigration
19:36and HMOs
19:39and is it fair
19:41that people
19:42don't work
19:42and claim welfare?
19:44And Zach Polanski
19:45is talking about
19:45taxing the rich
19:47and, of course,
19:48the super-rich
19:49and redistribution
19:51of wealth
19:51and how we think
19:53about our public services.
19:56And, I mean,
19:57they've both moved
19:58quite far away
19:59from what might have been
20:00kind of traditional
20:00Thatcherite policies
20:01for Farage,
20:02which is where he started
20:03and, of course,
20:04for the Greens.
20:04I mean,
20:05I think the environment
20:05is listed at the very bottom
20:07of their priorities
20:08from now on,
20:09which is amazing
20:10change from how they used to be.
20:11But they essentially
20:12are able
20:13to nip away,
20:16particularly at the Labour government,
20:17on bits that they want
20:18and take ownership
20:19of bits of policy
20:20they want
20:21and take voters
20:22that they want.
20:23And if you work
20:25from the basic premise,
20:26which is what a lot
20:27of pulses
20:28have kind of agreed upon,
20:30which is the cost
20:32of living is now
20:32so extraordinarily high.
20:34People are fed up.
20:36They're just fed up
20:37across the board.
20:37They feel like they don't have
20:39nice things to enjoy
20:40their lives.
20:40They don't feel like
20:41Britain is fair.
20:42They feel like things
20:43don't work for them.
20:44You can see
20:46why you will just
20:47have a throw of the dice
20:48and have a go.
20:49Why not go with Nigel?
20:50Why not go with Zag?
20:52I think that's really interesting.
20:53And actually,
20:54if you look back
20:54at the kind of national votes,
20:55if you go from
20:56the Brexit referendum
20:57in 2016
20:59and then the 2017
21:00general election
21:01where everyone
21:01forgets this now,
21:02but Jeremy Corbyn
21:03came extremely close
21:04to beating Theresa May
21:05in that general election
21:07in terms of vote share.
21:07There's only a couple
21:08of percent in it.
21:09And then you have
21:10the 2019 election
21:12with a big yes
21:14to Boris Johnson
21:14and then you've got
21:15a big yes
21:16to Keir Starmer
21:17in 2024.
21:18But it feels like
21:18a lot of people,
21:19just as you say,
21:20a roll of the dice,
21:21are saying,
21:21this doesn't work for me.
21:22I'm going to give
21:23change a go.
21:24I'm going to give
21:24something new a go.
21:25Whatever that looks
21:26and feels like.
21:27So to your point,
21:27this isn't about,
21:29you feel a bit of,
21:30I don't know if you've
21:30seen this,
21:30sometimes in the
21:31established parties,
21:32so particularly with
21:33Labour or the Conservatives,
21:34there's an element
21:35that they think
21:35it's not fair.
21:36It's not fair because
21:37reform and the Greens
21:38are sort of taking their,
21:40taking a bit of their clothes.
21:41It's not fair
21:41because it doesn't work
21:42like that because
21:42you're not supposed
21:43to think like this
21:43because you're on the
21:44left rather than the right.
21:45And actually,
21:46what is happening
21:47is a kind of real jumble
21:48of different bits
21:49of political ideology
21:50that these leaders
21:51are individually
21:52in these parties
21:53are opportunistically
21:54taking,
21:55weaving together
21:55and making promises
21:56that they may or may
21:58not be able to keep.
21:59Although I would note
22:00that Robert Jenrick
22:01was a former
22:02immigration minister,
22:03has been out and about
22:04on social media
22:06this week
22:07being,
22:08looking very sad
22:08about the broken promises
22:09on immigration
22:10with various reform voters
22:11when he was in fact
22:12one of the immigration ministers.
22:14Yes,
22:15while he was immigration minister,
22:16I'm afraid to say
22:17that immigration went up
22:1821.6%,
22:20which he has not mentioned
22:22in any of his campaign literature,
22:24but perhaps he'll correct
22:25the record on that one.
22:26I'm sure he will.
22:27Just the results
22:28you're mentioning there
22:29from the last few
22:29general elections,
22:30it's so true.
22:31People used to work
22:33in these kind of
22:33very traditional
22:34I am a Labour,
22:36you know,
22:36I'm a Labour family,
22:37I'm a Conservative family
22:38and people had these senses
22:39that whole communities
22:40could be banked on
22:41to vote for certain
22:43established parties
22:43and that's just not true anymore.
22:45And if you,
22:46you know,
22:46if you have people
22:47who are moving towards
22:49the main political parties
22:51thinking,
22:51well,
22:51they're promising
22:52the Hopi changey thing now
22:54and they haven't,
22:56then why wouldn't you
22:57go for someone
22:58who seems to say
22:59what they really think,
23:00like both Farage
23:01and Polanski
23:02have in common
23:03being very,
23:04very good
23:05social media performers
23:06and being quite punchy
23:07and,
23:08you know,
23:09sounding authentic
23:10and saying
23:10what people
23:11really seem to think.
23:13You know,
23:13you only need to look
23:14across the pond
23:14to see this mirrored
23:15in American politics.
23:18Trump is obviously
23:19president
23:19and he's a very close
23:21Farage ally
23:22as we understand it.
23:23Look at Mamdami
23:24in New York.
23:25He's a very Polanski-ish figure.
23:27That really works.
23:28You know,
23:28it just goes to show
23:29that some of this
23:30populist,
23:31what feels fringe stuff
23:33is actually where
23:34a lot of the public are
23:34and the main parties
23:35have to wake up to this.
23:37So local elections
23:37are mainly about
23:38bin collections
23:39and potholes
23:40but actually this week
23:41in the last week
23:41of the campaign
23:42we've been talking
23:42about something
23:43completely different
23:43as a result of the
23:45anti-Semitic attacks
23:46in Golders Green.
23:47We had another,
23:48I'm sorry to say
23:49it is another
23:50awful incident
23:51for the Jewish community
23:52which was a man
23:54who had
23:56attacked two
23:57Jewish men
23:58in Golders Green
23:59in London.
23:59The really striking thing
24:01about this incident
24:01as opposed to
24:02I'm afraid
24:03a very long line
24:04of anti-Semitic incidents
24:05that we've had
24:06in our country
24:07recently
24:07is the strength
24:09of reaction
24:09from politicians
24:11and it was actually
24:12very heartening to see.
24:13So Zach Polanski
24:14ill-advisedly
24:15retweeted something
24:15criticising the
24:17brave Metropolitan
24:18police officers
24:19who had in fact
24:20tried to apprehend
24:21this terrorist
24:22and the way in which
24:23he was being apprehended.
24:25There was then an argument
24:26where the
24:27Metropolitan Police
24:28Commissioner
24:28quite rightly
24:29Mark Rowley
24:29came in
24:30and pointed out
24:31how inappropriate
24:32it was to both
24:32use his position
24:33to amplify
24:34that sort of
24:35criticism of the police
24:36and that the police
24:37needed supporting
24:37and actually
24:38that was quite far away
24:40from the main point
24:40of the reaction
24:41to what had happened
24:42and then we've seen
24:44for the first time
24:45in a very long time
24:46both Keir Starmer
24:47and Kevin Badnock
24:48coming out
24:48incredibly powerfully
24:50and doing a very strong
24:52kind of defence
24:53of the muscular middle
24:54I would say
24:55and a very strong
24:56kind of actually
24:57there are lines
24:58we're going to draw now
24:59and we haven't
25:00drawn them before
25:01and we just cannot
25:02have a world
25:03where it's seen
25:04as acceptable
25:05to tolerate
25:06low level amounts
25:08of anti-Semitism
25:09because look where
25:10we end up
25:11so I mean
25:12it's not without notice
25:14it's also
25:14not electorally
25:16unhelpful for them
25:17to come out
25:18in this way
25:19in this particular time
25:20but I found it really
25:21I found it really heartening
25:22I think Kevin Badnock
25:23in particular
25:24has been absolutely
25:25fantastic on the doorstep
25:26the stuff that she said
25:27directly when people
25:29have pushed back
25:29and challenged her
25:30has been really really strong
25:31and Keir Starmer
25:32is out there
25:33swinging
25:34properly swinging
25:35I agree
25:36and they've done it
25:37in slightly different ways
25:38so you're right
25:39Kemi Badnock's been out
25:40and there are lots of clips
25:42of her talking to normal people
25:43and responding to
25:45normal questions
25:46and criticism
25:47and Keir Starmer
25:48has obviously
25:49the weight of his office
25:51behind him
25:51and he gave a very powerful
25:53press conference
25:53on Friday
25:54from Downing Street
25:56and today is Tuesday
25:57he's having a big meeting
25:58in Downing Street
25:58today
25:59to talk about
26:00anti-Semitism
26:00and what we can
26:02do about it
26:03and you're right
26:04it is really
26:05it's heartening
26:06and it is important
26:07that this is happening
26:08and it is also
26:09quite nice to see them
26:10in lockstep
26:11over something
26:12it reminds me a bit
26:13of our very early
26:14response to COVID
26:15when the other
26:16Westminster party leaders
26:18got behind Boris Johnson
26:20and said
26:20this needs to be a time
26:22of national unity
26:22and this is something
26:23we have to tackle
26:24all together
26:24and obviously
26:26that didn't necessarily
26:27stick
26:28but for that first lockdown
26:29you know
26:30I remember
26:31you and I
26:31were in the room
26:32listening to the phone call
26:33we had them all
26:34on loud speaking
26:34and it was
26:35it was actually
26:36very heartening
26:37to hear people say
26:37yes I support you
26:38this is something
26:39we have to do together
26:40we'll do what we can
26:41to help
26:42and it's also
26:44a kind of interesting
26:45moment
26:45because obviously
26:46Zach Polanski
26:47personally has come
26:48under a lot of fire
26:50despite actually being
26:51the only Jewish
26:52party leader
26:53of all the parties
26:54that are running
26:55in the local elections
26:56one of the things
26:56that I've found
26:57really interesting
26:58this time around
26:59because you're right
26:59this unfortunately
27:00we've had these
27:01anti-semitic attacks
27:02there's been 120% rise
27:04since October 7th
27:06of this happening
27:07in the UK
27:08Luke Trill
27:09who's a pollster
27:10at More & Common
27:10has been doing
27:11a lot of focus groups
27:13in the last week
27:14and he said
27:15this is
27:16you know
27:16this Golders Green attack
27:17has had real cut through
27:19this time
27:19with people in
27:20West Yorkshire
27:22where you wouldn't
27:23necessarily expect
27:24outside the London bubble
27:25where this feels
27:26more pertinent
27:27people are really
27:28picking up on it
27:29and they're worried
27:29about it
27:30and they're asking
27:30questions about it
27:31it does feel like
27:32an interesting
27:33turning point
27:34that you know
27:35I actually think
27:37this is a principled
27:37approach
27:38from Kemi Bajnock
27:39and Keir Starmer
27:40but also
27:40it happens to be
27:42the right political
27:42call too
27:46what do we do
27:47about all of this
27:47Cleo
27:47are we about
27:48to become
27:49ungovernable
27:49do you think
27:50it is totally
27:51possible
27:51that we are
27:52sleepwalking
27:53into
27:53a quite
27:54unprecedented
27:55situation
27:55so that means
27:56in some places
27:58where we see
27:59a traditionally
28:00very very low
28:01turnout
28:01in local
28:02elections
28:02we're not
28:03really set up
28:04for
28:04a group of
28:05people who are
28:06so uncohesive
28:07with each other
28:08and I don't
28:08think that is
28:09going to be
28:09good news
28:10for a kind
28:11of general
28:12local governance
28:13of people
28:13going forward
28:14a lot of the
28:15governing that
28:15actually matters
28:16to people
28:16most of the time
28:17happens in
28:17local elections
28:18right
28:18but what about
28:19the candidates
28:20who are we
28:21going to end up
28:21with after all
28:22of this
28:22yes well I
28:23think as
28:24the Greens
28:25and Reforma
28:26found in
28:26particular
28:27vetting people
28:28can be really
28:28difficult
28:28when you're
28:29a growing
28:29party
28:30and you've
28:31suddenly got
28:31a massive
28:32amount of
28:33people who are
28:33interested in
28:34running
28:34and you're
28:34trying to
28:35field as many
28:36candidates as
28:36possible across
28:37the country
28:38some bad
28:39apples do
28:40slip through
28:41the nets
28:42and we had
28:42this you know
28:43the Conservative
28:44Party have had
28:44this consistently
28:45too the Labour
28:46Party have and
28:47we had it in
28:482019 which was
28:49a snap election
28:52when Boris Johnson
28:53was Prime Minister
28:53end of 2019
28:55if people remember
28:55in December
28:56and we suddenly
28:57had to field
28:58a load of
28:58candidates out of
28:59nowhere we had
29:00to get all kinds
29:00of people who
29:01weren't already
29:01on our kind of
29:02lists shall we
29:03say and this
29:03is an established
29:04party with an
29:05effective machine
29:06who can actually
29:07vet people properly
29:08and basically
29:10all kinds of
29:10wrong ones
29:11came out of
29:11the woodwork
29:12tweets you know
29:13historic tweets
29:14we didn't know
29:14about historic
29:15interviews people
29:16had given
29:16things that people
29:18you know didn't
29:19really realise
29:19they'd ever be
29:20running for
29:20parliament so
29:21it wouldn't
29:21have mattered
29:22so much and
29:23these kind of
29:23old Facebook
29:24posts are
29:25unearthed so
29:27I can totally
29:28see how we
29:29might end up
29:30with all kinds
29:31of people getting
29:31elected particularly
29:32from some of
29:33the let's say
29:33more fringe or
29:34independent
29:34movements you
29:35know we've got
29:36lots of
29:36independent people
29:37running who
29:37don't have any
29:38party machine
29:38at all no
29:39one's vetting
29:40them except
29:41themselves which
29:41is quite a bad
29:42sign and you
29:44know it's
29:44perfectly possible
29:45we've got a
29:45load of count
29:46bin faces running
29:48different wards all
29:49over the country
29:49I will not hear a
29:50word against that
29:51man can I just
29:51say he's hereditary
29:52as a count so
29:53he's gone I
29:54imagine
29:56RIP count
29:57count bin face
29:58but you know we
30:00might have some
30:01some really quite
30:03unsuitable people in
30:04quite important
30:05positions now who
30:06are who are
30:06running services
30:07that actually a
30:09lot of really very
30:09vulnerable people
30:10rely on
30:11none of this is
30:12cheering me up
30:12it's fair to say
30:13no well would you
30:14like a little bit
30:15of cheery stuff
30:16which is for the
30:17people who are
30:18canvassing and
30:19getting the vote
30:20out on Thursday
30:21is this your
30:22international solidarity
30:23of former special
30:24advisors
30:24it really is
30:26sponsored this time
30:27by compete
30:28blisters
30:31so snack up
30:32you've got to get
30:32as many snacks as
30:33you can but don't
30:34have too much water
30:35because you don't
30:36know when you're
30:36going to come
30:36across a loo
30:37to be perfectly
30:38honest and
30:38actually depending
30:39on how well run
30:40the council is
30:40you don't know
30:41what the state
30:41of the toilets
30:43might be
30:44I really recommend
30:45wearing a Fitbit
30:46or having a
30:47smartphone because
30:48it tells you how
30:48many steps you've
30:49done and you can
30:49feel very virtuous
30:50about getting
30:5120,000 steps in
30:52knocking on doors
30:53getting people out
30:54to vote
30:54and of course
30:55going to the
30:56count which
30:57particularly for
30:58some of these
30:58newer candidates
30:59who have not
31:00run for office
31:01before
31:01these are generally
31:02held in sort of
31:03sports halls
31:04leisure centres
31:04that kind of
31:05thing
31:05they run
31:06through the
31:06night
31:07you want to
31:08look smart
31:09for the
31:10photographers
31:10but you also
31:11want to be
31:11really comfortable
31:13and so I
31:14recommend not
31:14wearing sort of
31:15cocktail dress
31:15and stripper heels
31:17probably go for
31:17a nice
31:18comfortable loafer
31:20perhaps for a
31:21later if so
31:21but I have
31:22actually heard
31:22clear in real
31:23life giving
31:23people real
31:24life advice
31:25on what to
31:25wear for these
31:26things so it's
31:27solid gold
31:27is it man
31:30made peach
31:31and then of
31:32course there's
31:33the advice
31:34for whoever's
31:34going to have
31:35to do the
31:35media round
31:36where inevitably
31:37I'm afraid
31:37particularly for
31:38the Labour
31:38government
31:39that there
31:39could be
31:39some very
31:40bad results
31:41and typically
31:42you tend to
31:43get you know
31:44perhaps Lucy
31:44Powell as
31:45deputy leader
31:46of the party
31:47someone like
31:47that will be
31:48going out to
31:49do that good
31:49work but
31:50eventually the
31:51leader of the
31:52party has to
31:52face the music
31:53and the buck
31:53stops with them
31:54etc and they're
31:55so sorry to
31:55see these
31:57councillors go
31:58who by the way
31:58are really important
31:59for the party
32:00machine
32:00you need these
32:01people when a
32:01general election
32:02comes to go
32:03out and
32:03canvass for
32:04your candidates
32:04so it is
32:05actually quite
32:06a big body
32:07blow aside
32:08from morale
32:09there are
32:10actual practical
32:11problems with
32:12losing these
32:12people too
32:13okay so
32:15in light of all
32:16that and
32:16everything you
32:16said I'm
32:17going to put
32:18you on the
32:18spot now and
32:19ask you to
32:20predict the
32:21results of
32:22these elections
32:23I'm playing my
32:24former civil
32:24servant card
32:25here so you
32:26know whoever
32:26the government
32:27is of the
32:28days
32:28you're wearing
32:29perda hat
32:31my perda hat
32:32is one of my
32:33best hats
32:33okay well I'm
32:34excited to make
32:35and then retract
32:36some of these
32:37predictions
32:38this is based
32:39of you know I've
32:40got the same
32:41problem that
32:42pretty much
32:42every other
32:42pollster and
32:43party strategist
32:44has which is
32:46nobody really
32:47knows because
32:48we've not had
32:49these kind of
32:49official lines
32:50drawn amongst
32:51the electorate
32:52and with these
32:53different kind of
32:53political parties
32:54and independents
32:55on offer
32:56so it's quite
32:57exciting
32:57okay so
32:58Scotland
32:58who's going to
32:59win Scotland
32:59I think the
33:00SNP will win
33:01Scotland but I
33:02think reform
33:02will do very
33:02well
33:03Wales
33:05I think
33:06oh I think
33:08Plaid will win
33:09but I think
33:09again reform
33:10are hot on
33:10their heels
33:11and then how
33:12many seats do
33:13you think that
33:13the Labour
33:14Party are going
33:14to lose in
33:15council elections
33:18I think
33:20god I've
33:20what haven't
33:22they hold
33:22two and a
33:23half thousand
33:23now and there
33:24are five thousand
33:25up for grabs
33:25so let's say
33:26they are going
33:28to lose
33:31nineteen hundred
33:33and then last
33:34question
33:35London councils
33:36a lot of London
33:37boroughs up for grabs
33:38you've already
33:38talked to us about
33:39what's happening
33:40with the Greens
33:40are we going to
33:42see more
33:43Green councils
33:44or Labour councils
33:45as a result of
33:46this set of
33:46London elections
33:47I think Labour
33:49are in big trouble
33:49in London
33:50I think
33:50big boost
33:51for the Greens
33:52big boost
33:53for reform
33:54there's a rumour
33:55that the
33:56Conservatives
33:56might take
33:57back Wandsworth
33:58and Westminster
33:59and I think
34:00perhaps Barnet
34:01which is very
34:03Margaret Thatcher
34:04circa
34:041990
34:05this is old
34:07school
34:07that's very
34:08nostalgic
34:08I know
34:09for the insiders
34:10it's very juicy
34:12I mean
34:13I think
34:14whatever happens
34:16in London
34:16it is
34:18probably the most
34:19telling for
34:20Keir Starmer
34:20on a personal
34:21level
34:21his seats
34:22in London
34:22and actually
34:23a lot
34:23of serious
34:25cabinet ministers
34:25have seats
34:26in London
34:26they obviously
34:28hold
34:28the London
34:29mayoralty
34:29and I think
34:31it could all
34:32feel very close
34:33to home
34:33if he's managing
34:34to lose
34:35to both
34:36Greens
34:36and reform
34:36which is the
34:37thing that
34:37really matters
34:38here
34:38and it
34:39you know
34:40regardless
34:40of his
34:41future position
34:42as Prime
34:43Minister
34:43and leader
34:44of the Labour
34:44Party
34:45the Labour
34:45Party
34:46are going
34:46to have
34:46to make
34:46a decision
34:47based on
34:48the results
34:48they're actually
34:49going to get
34:49data
34:50after Thursday
34:51which tells
34:51them exactly
34:52where they
34:52are hemorrhaging
34:53support
34:54to Green
34:54to the reform
34:55they're finally
34:55going to have
34:56to make a
34:56decision
34:57who are they
34:58taking the
34:58fight to
34:58to Nigel Farage
35:00or Zach Polanski
35:01they can't sit
35:01on the fence
35:02any longer
35:02tune in next
35:03week
35:05tune in for me
35:06to correct my
35:07record on all
35:08these results
35:09thank you so much
35:11for listening to
35:11today's episode
35:12remember to follow
35:13the show on your
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35:21this podcast is part
35:22of the independent
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35:24and produced in
35:24association with
35:25next chapter studios
35:26the executive
35:27producers are
35:28Carrie Rose
35:28and Olivia Foster
35:29and the producer
35:30is Sam Durham
35:31and a special
35:32mention to our
35:33content editor
35:33Maya Anushka
35:34our video editor
35:35Vali Raza
35:36and our videographer
35:37Dan Faber
35:38thanks for listening
35:39we'll see you next week