00:00I don't like Myles Michaelis as a starting pitcher.
00:02The New York Mets are favored at most outlets, minus 200 or higher.
00:07When you see that and say, well, the Mets can't get out of their own way,
00:09but we've been around the block handicapping.
00:11It's about pitcher versus pitcher, the expectations for that day.
00:14What do you think when you see the Mets as like a minus 200 favorite?
00:17Is it something that you handicap and say, you know what?
00:19It's a bad baseball team, kind of fluky early in the season and move on.
00:22Or is there actually value in the Mets, even though they're a minus 200
00:25and basically a bad baseball team?
00:28I can't bet on the Mets a minus 200.
00:30I think the Mets, when I'm looking at this game, I'd be like, okay,
00:33this game probably presents a really interesting in-game opportunity.
00:37Because if you get the Mets closer to even money,
00:38I will take an even money or minus 115 kind of line against Michaelis,
00:42who's terrible.
00:43Like, he's a bad pitcher.
00:44He's been bad for years at this point.
00:46But I'm not laying minus 210 just simply betting on Freddy Peralta.
00:49Then he's like, okay, you can go to the first five.
00:51You can go to the first five minus half a run.
00:53Like, hey, you're still looking at like minus 170 in some of those circumstances.
00:55Like, I'm not putting that on Freddy Peralta because he could give up one run
01:00and the Mets offense is inept right now.
01:02And you could lose that even though Freddy Peralta gives up one run
01:04over five innings, pitching great.
01:05I can't do that.
01:06Yeah.
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