Mets vs. Dodgers Series Finale: In-Depth Analysis and Odds

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00:00The Mets trying to win their second consecutive series in the NLCS rematch as we get ready for

00:06some day baseball at the ravine. It's the Dodgers and the Mets. Landon Knack gets the start for LA.

00:12They're a minus 132 home money line favorite. Total nine and a half. The over has the juice.

00:19Will we see some offense this afternoon in Los Angeles? If we just look at like on paper at the

00:24two pitchers, like it's hard to get 10 runs in Major League Baseball. It doesn't even matter

00:27if the pitchers are bad at that point, but also understand this. No marine layer typically in the

00:31afternoon in LA and 76 degree temperatures at first pitch with almost a double digit wind blowing out

00:36to right center field. Great hitting conditions tonight. Yesterday took a couple home runs there

00:41from the polar bear to get that game at least to six runs from a Mets perspective. What happens if

00:45he doesn't hit home runs? Where are we at in that game? Is it one to one in extra innings? I think

00:49the game trends to the under. If you take a look at David Peterson over the past 30 days, 131 batters

00:54he's faced. A 123 ISO against and a weighted on base percentage of 283. That's really good.

01:00Flip it over to the other side. Here's where some of the trouble might come in. Landon Knack

01:03on the season. 64 batters from the right-hand side he's faced. How about a 339 weighted on,

01:08excuse me, a 339 ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage of 416. If we just go over the

01:13last 111 batters he's faced and we include left-handed batters and right-handed batters, it's

01:18still a 233 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 344. If we take a look at Knack on the card

01:23today, 27 pitchers that are listed, he's actually 13th on the card. Decent ERA, 3.71,

01:293.78 XF number. So the guys that are catching up are doing damage. Maybe he's getting just a little

01:34bit unlucky and also not a big strikeout pitcher, particularly to right-handed bats. I look at

01:39again today and say, you know what? The Mets are the better team today. Do I love them as much as

01:43I did last night? Not necessarily, but I'm not going to take the Dodgers at a favorite price point

01:48of minus 136. I'd lean towards the Mets at a plus 116 price, but even though it's good weather,

01:53sometimes you just look at that ballpark and say it's a pitcher's paradise typically here at night.

01:58That's not going to be the case today, but I still think we see under 10 runs in this game

02:01and I give a nice little lean there to the New York Mets again.