- 2 days ago
Czabe and Nick think the new NBA lottery system is much worse than the flawed version that we previously had.
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00:00This new potential lottery overhaul in the NBA is an abject disaster waiting to happen.
00:07They're calling this the 3-2-1 lottery.
00:10It would be the lottery expanding from 14 to 16 teams, so you get the play-in losers included with
00:16this.
00:17The three worst teams, which includes this year, the Wizards, based on record, would be now in the relegation zone,
00:24which if you know the word relegation, they do that in Premier League,
00:27but teams actually get sent down to a lower league because it's real relegation.
00:32I'll just say this, Adam Silver loves European soccer because the NBA Cup is based off of a term.
00:38He's just stealing their ideas again.
00:40He's stealing the idea, but it's not actually correctly tagged.
00:46Because you're not sending teams down to the G League.
00:48The relegation zone is a misnomer.
00:52It should be the punishment zone.
00:54But the NBA doesn't want to go there describing the bottom three as a punishment zone.
01:01Also, the owners would never, ever allow that.
01:04Sorry, I will still say owners.
01:05The governors.
01:06Hello, governor.
01:07How you doing, governor?
01:08Hello, governor.
01:09I'm the governor of the Milwaukee Bucks.
01:10What you doing today?
01:11I'm governing a basketball team.
01:14We've been sent to the relegation zone.
01:16I'm just trying to be a good governor.
01:18Just want to be a proper governor.
01:20Govern these lads into good basketball.
01:22Those three worst teams sent to the relegation zone, governor, would actually get fewer lottery balls.
01:28The odds would basically drop to a 5% chance to have the No. 1 overall pick.
01:32Not an 8% chance.
01:33Teams can't land three straight top five picks.
01:37You can't have the No. 1 pick back-to-back years.
01:39It's all the stuff that they're going to try and run it through 2029 and see if it works.
01:43The NBA is so big on knee-jerk reactions.
01:46Anytime there is anything negative said about the league, there's an instant, we've got to fix this.
01:52We've got to fix this now.
01:53You had that with super teams, and they made it harder now in free agency for that to happen,
01:57or even trades based on the way contracts are structured.
02:00They had this with, oh, the regular season's not exciting enough.
02:03Well, they made the NBA Cup, which, by the way, I actually like it.
02:05I know it's gimmicky.
02:06I like it.
02:07It's fine.
02:07But now you've got this whole, I mean,
02:11they smoothed out the lottery odds a couple years ago, and they're doing it again.
02:14Yet nobody's made any changes with the whole the lottery's fixed.
02:17They don't show the ping-pong balls actually being revealed.
02:20There's no doing that behind the scenes.
02:21No, but they do have select media members observing.
02:24I know.
02:25I actually read, I dug into this yesterday.
02:28Did you put your tinfoil hat on?
02:30No, but I put my, like, serious big boy pants on to go,
02:34I'm going to understand this complicated stuff.
02:36And it lost me somewhere with the new system, the 3-2-1.
02:41Because what they're not explaining is they're not explaining that we're going from a,
02:47how do I describe it?
02:48The current lottery is a sequence of numbered balls
02:53that correspond to winning codes on a spreadsheet for your NBA team.
02:59And you have to then say, oh, does the code that just came up,
03:04balls 7, 11, 2, and 6, ooh, bingo, I got it.
03:10The new lottery is going to be a one-draw,
03:13if the ball pops up, you win, type lottery.
03:17Based on how many ping-pong balls you have,
03:20Monumental's got a great visual.
03:21There's a graph of showing, like, the percentages of it.
03:23Right, but do you understand?
03:25I mean, that's a fundamental change.
03:27It's a big difference.
03:28In how you're doing the lottery, and that has not been explained very well.
03:31But this was the best quote, or best analogy I saw on Twitter about this.
03:38Basically, somebody said, the NBA's stance is,
03:42hmm, we think some of you teams are faking being bad.
03:46So we're going to create a system that shows who is really bad,
03:51and we're going to punish them for being really bad.
03:55It's so true, though.
03:56So I'm like, that's a great way to put it.
03:58The new system will weed out the fakers,
04:02and it'll say, you guys who suck, you are bad people.
04:06You're going to have less chance to not suck.
04:09So with that, people have run now retroactive new lottery system
04:15on the current standings from the 2025-2020 season,
04:19and some of the results are insane.
04:21Do you want me to run one?
04:22Well, you could run one now, but I was reading some of the ones that said,
04:26you know, if they did this this year, this really good team that's on the verge
04:33might have gotten the number one, number one pick.
04:35Yes.
04:35What do we have?
04:36Let me do it.
04:38And the results are the Wizards dropping from one to the tenth pick in the draft with these rules.
04:47Oh, God.
04:47Based on where they are now.
04:49Tenth.
04:50They skirted by this system and snuck in with the old odds at just the right time.
04:55Here's the worst part.
04:57God.
04:57So right now, the Orlando Magic are a win away from going to the second round of the NBA playoffs.
05:03But based on these odds and the way they've smoothed it out all the way up and down the board,
05:08the Orlando Magic, this is a real simulator with this proposed idea by the NBA,
05:13the Orlando Magic jumped from 15 to 2.
05:182.
05:19Right.
05:19So a team that could be upsetting the 1C right now would be super rewarded for no other reason than,
05:26whoops, that's the way the ping pong balls went.
05:28Oopsie.
05:29Can you imagine a team that goes on a playoff run and gets a top three pick
05:32and then the conspiracy theorists are going to come out saying,
05:35well, see, you fixed it so they could get sent to wherever,
05:38like the Warriors next year are a fringe playoff team and steps at the end
05:41and they give them the number one pick.
05:43If you and I and others think this is completely the wrong way to go about it,
05:49why does it seem like the NBA's owners, by way of their board of governors,
05:54are going to go for it?
05:55Why do you think they think it's a good thing?
05:58That's my next question.
06:00Because they're the smartest guys in the room, Dave.
06:01They know more.
06:02Come on.
06:03But don't you think there will be some owners of bad teams going,
06:06hey, hey, whoa, whoa, guys, time out.
06:08Yeah.
06:08What's going on here?
06:09Like, we're bad because we had a guy get hurt.
06:14We had an expiring contract we had to move.
06:17We're trying, but we were in one of those dips.
06:20And now we're going to be able to possibly pick high in a very rich talent draft
06:25and we're going to get screwed?
06:26Why?
06:27We've done nothing wrong.
06:28This is an awful idea.
06:29Have you seen our team?
06:31We're trying, but we are bad.
06:33What can we do?
06:35There's a difference between tanking and rebuilding.
06:38The Wizards are rebuilding.
06:39They're all kids.
06:40They're all 24, 23, 22, 19.
06:44I mean, they're all kids.
06:45That is a rebuilding team.
06:47Right.
06:47But they also parked their two veteran stars.
06:49Yeah, but I mean, listen, Trey Young was already banged up.
06:53Anthony Davis is always hurt.
06:54And at this point, yes, that is the system.
06:56They parked them.
06:57But here's what they did.
06:57They traded four guys that are all-stars for next year.
07:01Well, right.
07:02So at least they're looking to then move forward and they still made an aggressive move.
07:06And they were already bad this whole season.
07:08It's not like the Kings where they had a bunch of all-stars already on the roster.
07:11They were trying to make the playoffs and then went, oh, actually, we suck.
07:14Look, suddenly, DeMontis Sabonis must miss the rest of the season.
07:17And Zach Levine will sit the rest of the way.
07:19That's tanking.
07:20The Jazz are tanking.
07:22They sat all these all-stars.
07:23The Wizards were smart in that they traded for parkable stars.
07:27Yes.
07:27They're like, hmm, who is possibly parkable because they're always injured?
07:32There's always a loophole.
07:33And this guy.
07:33So, look, if the Wizards were under this new system to fall to 11, don't despair.
07:39We could still get Kareem Lopez, small forward for the New Zealand Breakers.
07:45That's who is currently in the mock at 11.
07:51Kareem Lopez from the New Zealand Breakers.
07:55This is such a brutally bad idea by the NBA.
07:59Now, if they were to implement this, it would start next year, and they're going to try it
08:05through 2029.
08:07And then they can change it again.
08:09And then they can change it.
08:10There's no way they don't change this again.
08:12The NBA has been on this quest.
08:14It's been this side quest that they've had for decades of fixing, tanking.
08:19And the system gives you the opportunity to rebuild this way.
08:25And let's be honest with ourselves.
08:26If you look at the way the rest of the NBA is set up now, Zabe, free agency doesn't have
08:30the same impact that it used to anymore.
08:32The NBA has made that harder.
08:33Stars aren't available like they used to be.
08:35They're re-signing with teams to make $50, $60 million more, then asking for trades like
08:40Paul George did, you know, a year later or whatever it is.
08:42Because you have smaller market teams that even when free agency was at its best, couldn't
08:47afford the big free agents.
08:48So what do you do?
08:49You rebuild the way the Spurs have, the way the Thunder have, the way that even the Pistons
08:54have.
08:54Despite the fact they're down in the playoffs right now, the Pistons won 14 games like
08:57two years ago.
08:58And now, even though they're on the ropes against the Magic, they still won 60 this year.
09:03Most of those guys, not every one of them, but their main guys are from the draft.
09:08It's exactly the blueprint that the Wizards are doing right now, where if you can identify
09:13the right talent, your player development is in place, and you've got the right staff
09:16to help do that, you build a team with homegrown players through the draft.
09:20That's what everybody wanted in the NBA, but now you're trying to get rid of that.
09:23So what's left?
09:24What's left for the teams, then, that actually just suck?
09:26How do you rebuild?
09:28In the NFL, you have the worst record.
09:29You have the number one overall pick.
09:30It's simple.
09:31All I know is, thank God, we're getting this in before the Indiana Jones boulder rolls and
09:38closes the cave entrance, because I feel like we're sliding in Indiana Jones-style underneath
09:44this boulder.
09:45I pray to God that they win it, and then we can have a superstar in town for a long
09:50time.
09:51But I just don't understand why they think this is a good idea.
09:54Stephen, Steph Noe writes for the Sporting News, says,
09:59The NBA's tanking reform is akin to breaking a few hundred eggs to make an omelet.
10:04Why the plan is a disaster in waiting.
10:07He's got a long piece that lays it all out.
10:09So, go figure.
10:11So here's my question, though.
10:12Because everybody's ripping it universally, does the NBA...
10:17Double down?
10:17No, no, no.
10:18Do they end up maybe doing the opposite?
10:19Because they're so willing to change so quickly.
10:21Maybe this was a trial balloon, where they let it get out, like, hey, look...
10:25Is this the Jim Fossil leak years ago?
10:26Remember that?
10:27Oh, I remember that.
10:27Let's see if he's going to be the head coach.
10:29Nope, nobody likes him.
10:30Let's go Jim Zorn instead.
10:31God, that was wild.
10:32I remember that.
10:33I remember that.
10:33They literally trial balloon Fossil, and people were not having him.
10:37I immediately regret this decision.
10:39So they instantly downgraded to somebody even worse.
10:42It was like, wow.
10:43And then once they downgraded to somebody worse, he proved to be even worse than we thought he could be.
10:48Good job, Dan.
10:49Oh, gee golly.
10:50Oh, gosh.
10:50Gee golly.
10:52I don't know why they're doing this.
10:54To me, it's too much.
10:56It should be very simple.
10:57I'd put every non-playoff team in a hopper with the ping pong balls, or better yet, I'd build a
11:02giant plinko board like they have on that game show.
11:05Plinko board.
11:05Yeah, and put the teams on the bottom where the middle slots are the most likely to catch the plinko
11:11disc, because it's ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.
11:14And then put the ones with the less chance on the outside, televise it.
11:17We're done.
11:18It's simple.
11:19No relegation zones.
11:20What if you actually have a round of games that the teams compete in?
11:23You call it the lottery games.
11:24You can have a candy crush on a big screen.
11:26They did that for a while.
11:27Have some plinko, maybe some ping pong more at it.
11:30I don't know.
11:31We don't want to go that far.
11:32All I know is the Oklahoma City Thunder are picking 12, because the Clippers are idiots, and flipped them a
11:37pick that's going to sit at 12.
11:39And they could get Yaxel Lindeborg.
11:42That's stupid.
11:43Like, he's a really good player.
11:44Do you know how many first-round picks the Thunder have?
11:46Too many.
11:47It's too many still.
11:48That's all it needs to be.
11:49They have so many more moving forward.
11:51This team is going to be a dynasty for the next decade, without question, as long as everybody stays healthy.
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