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Chase Hughes joins the show to preview this weekend's NBA Draft Lottery.
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00:00but the wizards nba draft lottery will be revealed sunday no idea why they're doing it on mother's
00:05day great job adam silver but here we are uh helping us break it all down is our friend mr
00:10chase hughes cha say what's up bud i'm doing great man thanks for having me on i'm glad you
00:16mentioned the mother's day thing i've been scratching my head at that for years um has
00:21it always been mother's day uh the last few years it's with the like rare exceptions it's usually
00:28on mother's day and not just mother's day it's right in the middle of the afternoon on mother's
00:32day right um how does that go over at the hughes household how much does your wife love that
00:39not great um you know what i'm holding out hope for i'm holding out hope so the new draft lottery
00:45odds
00:46obviously very controversial a lot of people don't like them a lot of people do like them whatever
00:50i think what we could all agree on is it's going to make it a much better tv event because
00:54you're
00:54going to have more teams involved more teams with higher odds to get the number one pick
00:58yeah exactly so i'm hoping it becomes more of a tv event where we look back on it and be
01:03like man
01:04remember when they used to hold this thing on the afternoon on mother's day that was ridiculous
01:07kind of like the nba finals used to be on tape delay like hopefully it earns a better tv spot
01:13someday
01:14okay gotcha um so kind of going forward then the whiz have the
01:22best odds of getting the first pick but there's two other teams with the same odds and somebody
01:28that knows stuff told me this and i find this alarming we're excited that they have the 14th best
01:33chance 14 chance of getting one they also have a 47 chance of getting five i know how locked in
01:40you
01:40are in the building over there what how are their preparations going into this weekend like what are
01:47they thinking well they understand the odds you mentioned that 47.9 chance to pick fifth their
01:55most likely result that's one of the most likely results of the entire lottery right so it's kind
02:00of stacked in the favor of that happening but what they feel great about is the depth in this draft
02:05particularly at the top they feel like there's at least five players who could become stars and so
02:11what if they can move up at all that would feel like a bonus um but they feel comfortable sitting
02:17there at five and i think you have to feel pretty good about their chances to find a really good
02:21player there because of their track record that they've built so far this front office you know
02:26we all focus on the top picks that they've made like alex saar who who looks like that was a
02:32smart
02:32decision two years ago and trey johnson last year but what they've done later in the first round by
02:38picking keishon george two years ago in the 20s and then will riley in the 20s last year
02:42that's the type of stuff that you want to see from a front office because you need guys who can
02:47see
02:47things that other teams don't yeah chase i mean you mentioned there that even if they were to pick
02:53fifth which is the most likely outcome but even if they do pick fifth it feels like there's five guys
02:59in this draft that someone's going to fall to you that still feels like a franchise type player
03:04this draft especially feels like it's deeper how much better do they feel knowing that okay
03:10they've set themselves up in a good position to potentially get number one as good a position
03:14as they could but even if they were to end up with wizards luck like we've seen over the last
03:18couple of years they're pretty confident they're going to get their franchise player this year in
03:21the draft 100 i mean i think it's similar to last year where if you got or this year if
03:28you get one of
03:29the top two picks it's going to be an instant impact plug and play guy but um if you pick
03:34fourth
03:34or fifth you're going to get someone who could end up being just as good or better it just might
03:38take
03:38a little bit longer right some of these prospects like a caleb wilson of unc is a little less polished
03:44than like an aj debonta of byu who might go first overall but what i always like to do when
03:50i ponder the
03:51scenarios for the wizards and the lottery is like look at the past and look at how many stars were
03:56still on
03:56the board at certain spots and one thing i just found this morning that's interesting is uh only
04:02two number one picks this century have gone on to win the mvp award and it hasn't happened since
04:07derrick rose who was drafted uh in 2008 i believe and lebron james was the other one in 03 um
04:14the only
04:14other guy who was picked top two to win an mvp was kevin durant so if you get the third
04:19pick for instance
04:20you know that there's a really good likelihood that if there is a future mvp in this draft he's still
04:25going to be on the board and then you look at the recent mvps in the league three of the
04:29last four
04:30were selected outside the top 10 in the draft sga yokich janice they've all won titles with small
04:37market teams so it's a it remains a very unpredictable uh process and that could work in
04:44the wizards favor if they don't get lucky but if they do get lucky obviously they'll take it
04:48who do you like at one if you were making the pick
04:52i think it's going to be aj debonsa i mean it's been really close between him and darren peterson
04:57of kansas but uh and and i would throw cameron boozer of duke in there as well but debonsa just
05:02checks off the most boxes of those three guys he's the one guy who can say all these things you
05:08know
05:08he's got the positional size at six nine the uh explosive athleticism the offensive skill set that
05:14you generally look for in a top player uh he doesn't have any questions about his reliability
05:20or his durability and the intangibles seem to be about as good as you could ask for he uh seems
05:26to
05:26love the game work really hard uh be a serious you know student of the game and then when you
05:32watch
05:32him play you can just tell that he's got a competitive fire to him that you know certainly
05:37the top players in the league seem to generally have so i think no there's no such thing as a
05:43perfect
05:43prospect and in his case he's got some gaps in his game you know he's not a great defender
05:47but i think he's very versatile he's a really good passer i think for his size and his position
05:53um so i think he's the one who makes the most sense and just passes the eye test and the
05:59production
05:59test in terms of okay this guy looks like a number one pick can we get and this may be
06:05too much to put
06:06you on the spot for can we get the chase use one to five big board oh because five's as
06:11low as
06:11they're going right so the bonds is one would you go peterson two peterson two yeah i mean if it
06:19weren't for the injury concerns and maybe you know i'd like to see what he measures in at the combine
06:24because because there there could be a big difference if he's six six compared to six four that could
06:29determine some things but it's really a one a one b i put peterson second i put boozer third i
06:34think
06:34he's got the highest floor of any player in this draft he's also super versatile and he can shoot really
06:39well from three and rebound really well um so he's got a lot uh to offer fourth i'm gonna go
06:47caleb wilson of unc i think he is a little bit raw compared to the other guys but has the
06:53highest
06:53feeling defensively and he was also really productive on the offensive end um the best
06:57dunker in the class might be the best athlete in the class and then fifth i'm gonna go darius
07:03acuff i know he's got some big concerns about involving his size and his defense but he's got
07:09a few things working for him i mean the production is incredible what he could do as a scorer as
07:14a
07:14shooter well above 40 from three both off the catch and off the dribble i think there's a chance that
07:20he
07:21could be a tyrese maxi or maybe even a danian lillard and if that's the case even though he's undersized
07:26he can't defend uh those guys usually don't make it out of the top five he could fill it up
07:31one thing
07:31that's interesting you mentioning boozer and wilson three four is i think that's an intriguing
07:36discussion because i think you understand the floor with a boozer but maybe doesn't have the
07:42ceiling of a wilson how do you weigh that out because generally it feels like for nba drafts
07:46teams always go with the higher ceiling maybe understanding there could be a lower floor
07:51but maybe teams go with boozer because they view him as not having a low ceiling but a little bit
07:55lower than wilson because of the athleticism but having one of the highest floors in the draft
08:01yeah it's definitely floor versus ceiling i think with those two guys um they're both very productive
08:07but boozer just um pretty unbelievable when you look at the numbers and compare them to some of
08:11the greats of the past but he doesn't have the explosive above the rim athleticism that caleb
08:17wilson does caleb wilson might end up being like a sean kemp type dunker at the next level where it's
08:22just
08:22you know a highlight reel every night um but i will say you got to get you can't get carried
08:27away with
08:28that like vertical athleticism i believe has become extremely overrated in the nba draft and the big
08:35reason why is because the three-point line has made it so you don't have to play above the rim
08:40like you
08:40used to and if you look at the top players in the draft the guys who win mvps the guys
08:44that lead their
08:45team to the finals you know they don't they don't play like anthony edwards where it's above the rim like
08:50that guy is kind of the exception to the rule usually it's sga luca tatum yokich like all these
08:57guys might not be able to jump over a phone book but they can make threes they can get into
09:02the paint
09:03and they can get to the free throw line they can score around the rim they don't need necessarily
09:07need to jump above the rim you know take last year in the nba finals it wasn't the best athletes
09:13leading their team it was sga and tyrese halliburton that's really interesting and i hadn't thought
09:19about that but makes a ton of sense the game has shifted so much talking with our friend chase hughes
09:25here from monumental sports network you can give him a follow at chase dc sports you should also check
09:30out the off the bench podcast chase does with c mill mr chris miller voice of the wizards um that
09:38is
09:38really interesting dude the verticality element you also tugged at my heartstrings a bit there with
09:42sean kemp one of my absolute favorite players of all time for the idiots that say basketball wasn't
09:47athletic in the 90s please go watch some sean kemp um right but i i got i got one name
09:54for you
09:54and this is from the people who know stuff file the people who know stuff last year loved con
10:01knipple the people who know stuff this year are telling me yaxel lendenborg out of michigan i i
10:07understand he's 23 i think but where do you think yaxel ends up going
10:14i think he goes like late top 10 um i saw him play this year in person i mean he's
10:19a really
10:20impressive athlete um what he could do at his size the way he moves his versatility
10:25um is definitely pretty unique and he had his way against duke when i saw him in the first half
10:31i think
10:32he had 18 points in the first half at capital one arena so that really uh you know drew my
10:36attention
10:37duke was able to shut him down in the second half but he's a guy who as you mentioned has
10:41been in
10:42school for a while uh played at uab for a while before transferring to michigan it might be a late
10:47bloomer um really good score he can rebound i think he's got a chance to be a really good defender
10:52i think the question for him will be shot creation and you know one thing um that is interesting to
10:59keep
10:59in mind is uh people have thrown this comparison out which is ob toppin and ob toppin was a really
11:04good college player who you know i think was a four-year guy at dayton um could do just about
11:09everything but sometimes the shot creation is a big hurdle for guys so that's what teams are going to
11:14have to weigh with with the axle but i like his size his athleticism his motor and his skill set
11:20on
11:20both ends of the floor so i like him a lot i just don't think he's going to you know
11:23creep into close
11:24to the top five dude you are from here i am from here grew up bullets fans we're now wizards
11:31fans
11:31you you work there like you're covering the team so it's a different capacity for you we know the
11:38lottery balls over the years over the decades frankly have not been kind to the washington
11:42organization to label as tony cornizer calls them um does that carry anything like does that or
11:51winger dawkins like are they thinking about that at all
11:56no i mean i think those guys are pretty practical and pragmatic and they just look at the odds and
12:01understand that the odds in a given year are all that really matters you know we i think focus on
12:06so much the history of a team in the lottery or you know who's representing the team on stage
12:12john waltz it's this year that's cool um but at the end of the day it comes down to the
12:16percentages
12:1614 chance to pick first 13.4 to pick second on and on and on um you know that also
12:23means you have
12:23an 86 chance of not picking first so they understand what the odds are and i think they're just going
12:29to go off of those but you know in terms of lottery luck i think certainly you're hoping for that
12:33this
12:33year but they did get lucky two years ago and staying at second and getting alexar especially in
12:38the draft that wasn't considered very great he wanted to pick high in that draft and you know
12:43hopefully they get luck this year but i think if you look back at rebuilds that that were successful
12:47or just teams that went through this process you know you don't get four number one picks you usually
12:52get like two top three picks and then you kind of get shafted in the other two years so um
12:58they picked
12:59they got the eighth pick in the lottery three years ago second six last year so if you're going to
13:04go
13:04off that they're due but again it goes back to those percentages chase i mean you look at this
13:10wizards team and they're going to be adding a really good player we just talked about either
13:13at the fifth pick first pick or anywhere in between what exactly do the wizards need obviously
13:19they need the best player available and they're not going to draft based on positional value and
13:22you know like stuff like that like the nfl or anything but what is it that the wizards are missing
13:27that they're hoping they can get in this draft pick whether it's debonso whether it's you know
13:31kingston flemings wogler caleb wilson whoever it is what exactly do they need not just position but
13:36shot creation what are some of the things they're looking for
13:39i think high-end scoring talent uh you know they began this rebuild by really focusing on the
13:45defensive end with alex saar and bilal koulibaly they feel like they got two guys who project
13:50as elite defenders as rim protectors or as a rim protector and as a wing defender
13:56and then they drafted trey johnson last year who kind of caught them up a little bit on the
14:01offensive end and they've got other guys who can score but they've yet to draft someone who
14:05projects to you know win a scoring title someday so i think it could come in handy just the the
14:11talent in this draft how it is very much offense forward if i were to you know tell you about
14:16this
14:16draft class at the top i would say their star potential but it's also mostly because of
14:21offense i think this year might actually lack defense in the top 10 but the wizards already
14:25redrafted their defense so if they can get a guy like debonsa or peterson or boozer wilson you know
14:31he's a two-way talent but a cuff is a a potentially great offensive player i think it could fit
14:37in
14:37really well in that respect where you create a little bit more balance on the roster talk with
14:43our buddy chase hughes from monumental sports network here you can follow him at chase dc sports on
14:48instagram check out the off the bench podcast um i just ran the lottery simulator on tankathon 10 times
14:56the wiz got three twice and fifth every other time so i don't know what to make of that
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