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Is the United States losing the Iran war — or is this just the fog of a complex conflict?

A major moment has sparked debate after top U.S. military leader Dan Caine faced tough questions over strategy, warning that before any military action, leaders must ask a critical question: “then what?” — highlighting the risks, consequences, and long-term fallout of war.

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00:00What second and third order effects are you watching right now, and how should leaders, really across sectors, train themselves
00:09to think more effectively about these cascading consequences?
00:15Well, I'll start backwards and move to the front of your question.
00:21Some of us here in the military went through these courses through the journey.
00:26One of them was a joint PME course down in Norfolk, Virginia, and some of us encountered a guy named
00:33Tom Snookus, who was an old Army colonel, and I don't know if he's out there watching or not, but
00:39he taught a bunch of us to ask a critical question before we consider the use of military force.
00:47And that critical question is, and then what?
00:50And so as we think about operations right now, and we think about second and third order consequences, asking before
00:59we use military power force and then what is, I think, a key way to think about it.
01:05I am a context thinker, and so as I work with the combatant commanders to develop the range of options
01:12and the associated risks with those options, what is key for me to do is to understand that context and
01:20then be able to help national political and policymakers see around the corner and answer that question, and then what?
01:27And those secondary and tertiary considerations range across the elements of power.
01:34They can be diplomatic considerations or information considerations or, of course, economic considerations.
01:41And the military element is only one component of that total policy equation that the United States and the leadership
01:49will consider.
01:50And so key and essential to that is answering, though, that primal question, that seminal question, if we go do
01:58this, and then what are the various things that can happen with that?
02:01And that's something that I think is very much in my job jar.
02:05What second and third order effects are you watching right now, and how should leaders really across sectors train themselves
02:15to think more effectively about these cascading consequences?
02:21Well, I'll start backwards and move to the front of your question.
02:27Some of us here in the military went through these courses through the journey.
02:33One of them was a joint PME course down in Norfolk, Virginia, and some of us encountered a guy named
02:39Tom Snookus, who was an old Army colonel, and I don't know if he's out there watching or not, but
02:45he taught a bunch of us to ask a critical question before we consider the use of military force.
02:53And that critical question is, and then what?
02:56And so as we think about operations right now, and we think about second and third order consequences, asking before
03:05we use military power force, and then what, is, I think, a key way to think about it.
03:11I am a context thinker, and so as I work with the combatant commanders to develop the range of options
03:18and the associated risks with those options,
03:21what is key for me to do is to understand that context and then be able to help national political
03:28and policy makers see around the corner and answer that question, and then what?
03:34And those secondary and tertiary considerations range across the elements of power.
03:40They can be diplomatic considerations or information considerations or, of course, economic considerations.
03:47And the military element is only one component of that total policy equation that the United States and the leadership
03:55will consider.
03:56And so key and essential to that is answering, though, that primal question, that seminal question, if we go do
04:04this, and then what are the various things that can happen with that?
04:07And that's something that I think is very much in my job jar.
04:12You build a career that spans military service, intelligence, and the private sector.
04:17What drew you to a life of service?
04:20Why does it still matter?
04:24Well, I grew up as the son of a schoolteacher turned Air Force fighter pilot
04:32and the son of a nurse who worked nights so that she could be home during the day when my
04:42sister and I got home.
04:44And through my folks, I learned the incredible gift that service has
04:52and how, as someone, if you step into service, the returns on that investment of time will always be exponential.
05:02And I have been so lucky to serve for so long.
05:08But where I got that gift of service, I was drawn into that, was absolutely first and foremost my parents.
05:17And then as the arc of my life continued, it began to become much deeper than that.
05:24It began to be about serving the nation.
05:27It began to be about the ideals that we live under,
05:31the importance of what the United States military does for the United States.
05:38Subscribe to One India and never miss an update.
05:43Download the One India app now.
05:46Bye-bye.
05:47Bye-bye.
05:47Bye-bye.
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