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The Junkies break down some prospects, as listed by insiders as potential surprises, ahead of the NFL Draft beginning tonight.
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00:00Let's get into some audio we have here from the Rich Eisen show.
00:03This is Tom Pellicero, NFL Network insider,
00:07talking about a certain quarterback who had been mocked a lot in the second round.
00:12He thinks he may slip into the late first round of tonight's NFL draft.
00:18The quarterback who's going to go higher than every projection has had him in this process,
00:22I believe, is Carson Beck.
00:24There was a lot the teams had to sort through going back to Georgia.
00:27All the things they saw on social media, all the things that they heard out of the program,
00:33the celebrity obsessions, and him and Kirby Smart not getting along.
00:37To his credit, Carson Beck heard some of that stuff after he transferred to Miami.
00:41He cleaned up some of those things.
00:44Carson Beck has impressed people in the process when he's meeting with coaches.
00:48He comes across, as one scout put it to me, as a beautiful mind in terms of his football IQ.
00:53He knows exactly what's going on on the football field.
00:56You remember the old Bill Parcells rules for drafting a quarterback.
00:59College graduate, senior, which he's a super senior to say the least.
01:0330 starts, 23 wins, 60% completions, 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
01:09He's above and beyond in all those metrics.
01:11He's 6'5", has a good enough arm.
01:14Why is that guy not going high?
01:16There's enough teams that have a quarterback need.
01:19I would not be surprised if Carson Beck goes, I believe he will go in the second round of this
01:24draft,
01:24and there's at least a non-trivial chance, again, based on the fact that everybody in the back half of
01:29the first round
01:30is going to have a second round grade, I would not 100% rule out the idea of Carson Beck
01:34somehow finding his way into the bottom of round one.
01:38I don't think that's the wildest take in the world.
01:41I mean, the guy was projected to be a top draft pick for years.
01:45You know, he's had so many starts, as he mentioned.
01:48You look at his lifetime touchdown-to-interception ratio,
01:50maybe it's a little higher than you would think for a college star,
01:53but 88-32 is not horrible.
01:56He's passed for 11,000 yards.
01:58His lifetime completion percentage in college is basically 70%.
02:02Now it's college, but, you know, pretty big schools, Georgia and Miami.
02:07Oh, yeah.
02:07You know, it's not like he's playing chumps.
02:09I just remember before the national championship game, Jason saying,
02:12and he watches more college football than all of us,
02:14saying that his arm was questionable, and then in the biggest moment,
02:17in the biggest throw, he just underthrew it terribly.
02:20Yeah.
02:21Well, last year at Miami, they broke down some of the metrics,
02:25some of the stats on, you know, completion percentage under pressure,
02:31and his numbers were really, really down.
02:34But on the flip side, on the positive, he played big-time college football.
02:39For five years.
02:40Now he was a starter for three of those.
02:42He led Georgia to the college football playoff.
02:44Now he got hurt in the SEC championship game and didn't play in the playoff
02:47because he was out for the year.
02:49Gunnar Stockton took over.
02:51And then, of course, he goes to the national championship game at Miami.
02:54So he definitely has credentials at the college level, and he's got size, but...
02:59I mean, he's not a perfect prospect.
03:01He's not the greatest athlete.
03:02He's not perfect, but if you're a team like Miami, who's sitting there at number 30,
03:05they have Denver's pick from the Waddle trade there.
03:08Yeah.
03:08That might make sense for you.
03:10Yeah.
03:11I agree.
03:11I think arm strike, again, of all the traits, that's the least important one.
03:16I have no idea how he processes, but if he processes well, he's got the size you look for.
03:25I don't know.
03:28I don't think he's going to go to first round because it doesn't seem like there's value there.
03:32You could wait, but I wouldn't put it past him to have some success.
03:36Maybe go to the second or third round.
03:37Why wouldn't someone take Beck over Ty Simpson since Ty Simpson played one?
03:43Way more experience.
03:44Way more experience.
03:45Way more.
03:45Bigger guy.
03:46Better size.
03:47Seen everything.
03:48They say he's like a savant.
03:49Yeah.
03:50So he's like a football genius.
03:51I might lean towards Beck before I took Simpson.
03:54Yeah.
03:55For sure.
03:56You know, I haven't looked at him.
03:58I haven't given you my silly EB evaluation of him.
04:01You haven't given him your commercial film breakdown?
04:03You know, I saw him fail in the national championship game like everybody else, but...
04:09I don't know.
04:10There was a guy that many thought, I think, had at the top of the draft at times, you know,
04:14in previous years.
04:16Carson Beck, Carson Beck, Carson Beck.
04:19So it's funny how guys just get trashed.
04:21You have a couple bad throws or a couple dud games, and they just think you suck.
04:28I mean, his numbers don't suck.
04:30You know, pretty...
04:31In other words, if your son had his career, you'd say that guy had an unbelievable career.
04:35Of course.
04:36Yeah.
04:36It's just a matter of, can he make it on the next level?
04:39Can he become, you know, a stud NFL quarterback?
04:42Well, he's definitely going to be in the NFL.
04:44It's whether or not he will get an opportunity to start, you know, for a decent team and
04:48get it, you know, who knows?
04:50Right, right.
04:51But I could see him going ahead of Ty Simpson because of that.
04:54I actually could.
04:55Although there doesn't seem to be value there, but you never know.
04:58I think once you get...
04:59I've heard these guys talk about it.
05:01Even Adam Peters, I think, even talked about it.
05:02Once you get to, like, the 20s or something, it's almost a complete crapshoot.
05:06You know, a guy might go in the second round that you thought you could get in the fourth
05:09round.
05:10Yeah.
05:10You know what I mean?
05:11You just don't know.
05:12Right.
05:13Because every team's board's going to be different.
05:15Totally different.
05:15They look for different things.
05:17I mean, they kind of know these guys are who the elite ones are.
05:20But after that, it's kind of dicey.
05:22It's beauties in the eye of the beholder, cakes.
05:25Look, if I'm sitting at 28 and I'm the Texans and I don't want to pay C.J. Stroud $60
05:30million
05:30per year because I don't think he's worth that sort of money, I would consider drafting
05:34Carson Beck as C.J. Stroud insurance.
05:38Of course.
05:38Yeah.
05:39I wouldn't have a problem with that.
05:40You'd have a first round pick on Carson Beck if you have Stroud as your QB.
05:43Possibly.
05:44I'd say possibly.
05:45If you're not, would you be comfortable handing C.J. Stroud $200 million?
05:49No, but I would probably make C.J. Stroud earn it this year before I cause a massive
05:53fire in that house by drafting another first round QB.
05:55I might put a little pressure on C.J. Stroud and his camp by drafting his potential replacement.
06:00Maybe not.
06:00If I like him.
06:02If I like Carson Beck.
06:03If you like him, okay.
06:04But what about, maybe it's more likely to be a team that's more needy at quarterback.
06:08Could be.
06:09Yeah.
06:10Or I'm just describing to Valdez's theory that you just always draft quarterbacks.
06:14Yeah.
06:14Because it is the most important position on the field.
06:17Right.
06:18And I, personally, I wouldn't be comfortable paying C.J. Stroud.
06:22But that might just be me.
06:24Yeah.
06:24It depends on what Nick Casario feels like, if that's the right move for the Texans or
06:29not.
06:30I don't think anybody would be super comfortable with it at the moment.
06:32Right.
06:33You've got to show a lot more.
06:35Mm-hmm.
06:36But, you know, there's quarterback needy teams out there, so I could see them going after
06:41a guy who played a lot of college football who's 6'4".
06:44Who are the teams right now off the top of your head, because I'm not thinking about it,
06:47haven't thought about it, that literally could use a legit starter at quarterback?
06:52The Browns are one.
06:54So you, all right.
06:54I think some people want, okay, but okay, the Browns, give me another one.
06:57Well, Dolphins.
06:58The Jets.
07:00Neither one have, yeah.
07:01So those teams could do it.
07:02The Jets have Geno Smith, like, as a placeholder, but I don't think anybody thinks he's going
07:06to be there long-term.
07:07Yeah, right.
07:08He's not a long-term solution.
07:09Arizona.
07:10So those guys could do it.
07:11Let's say not in the first round, but maybe late or second round, I could see it.
07:15The Cardinals have the 34th pick.
07:16I know this because I'm their de facto GM for later today in the Junkies mock draft.
07:21Yeah.
07:21So maybe that's a spot where either Simpson or Beck would go off the board.
07:25Right.
07:25Mm-hmm.
07:26Right.
07:26I think that's maybe a better fit, maybe, than Houston.
07:29Unless Houston drives them, like, the fourth round.
07:32Then I think it would make sense.
07:33You know, if he slips, then it might make sense.
07:37I mean, the Dolphins went out and got Malik Willis.
07:40Right.
07:40But he's still a question mark.
07:42He's still a question mark.
07:43Yeah.
07:43Yeah.
07:43So I'm not saying the Dolphins would take a first-round quarterback, but.
07:46Yeah.
07:48And then there's teams that have, you know, aging veterans that are, I mean, like the Rams,
07:53who still have Stafford, but.
07:55But, yeah, Stafford.
07:56So I could see that maybe in the third round.
07:57He's not going to be there forever?
07:59A hundred percent.
08:00No, that would be great, but I don't know if I'd use a first-rounder.
08:02Like, late, let's say that they had a late first-rounder.
08:05Yep.
08:05I don't know if I would use it on Carson back.
08:07When's Aaron Rodgers going to decide, is he coming back, or is he stepping out?
08:11Whenever he feels like it.
08:13Yeah.
08:14Yeah.
08:15Well, and, of course, that's another team.
08:17He likes to hold his teams hostage.
08:20Yeah.
08:21Let's go to.
08:21It'll be interesting to see where Beck goes.
08:23Let's go to Henry in D.C.
08:25Henry, what's up, man?
08:26Let's see if the phone's working.
08:27It is Open Line Thursday.
08:28It is.
08:28You can call us at any point throughout the show.
08:30Good morning.
08:30Happy draft day.
08:31Yeah.
08:31Happy draft day, man.
08:33How are you?
08:34All right, and you.
08:35Hey, fellas, I think we still need to build that defense up.
08:38Bring Reuben Baines to D.C.
08:40I mean, I'm not going to hate it.
08:42If they draft Reuben Baines, you've got another guy who, at times, people thought could go
08:47one overall, you know, in the offseason or whatever, during the college season.
08:52And so, if you get him at seven, I'm not going to hate it.
08:55We have talked about, though, they do seem to have, after free agency, a bunch of edge rushers.
09:03They have a lot of depth there.
09:05Now, do they have a star?
09:06Do they have a young star?
09:08They're hoping O-Way turns into that.
09:10But they brought in Chase on.
09:12They brought in a minute who.
09:13They still have Dorrance Armstrong.
09:16They still have Dietrich Wise.
09:18They got a lot of defensive ends.
09:21We just have never had a time here, in recent times, where we've had too many pass rushers.
09:26You know, I'm big on turning your weakness into your strength.
09:30I think if David Bailey falls to seven, you're going to hear his name called, but I don't
09:34think he's going to make it.
09:35I mean, he might not make it past two.
09:36Yeah.
09:37Two or three.
09:38I'll be honest with you.
09:40If you want a guaranteed hit, you draft Caleb Downs.
09:44You want a guaranteed hit, you draft Caleb Downs.
09:48I don't think he's going to be there.
09:49I think the Giants might take him off the board at five.
09:53Five or ten.
09:53Possibly, yeah.
09:54He could go in either of those spots.
09:56Could be that seven.
09:57I still think Stiles is going to be a stud.
10:00I think he is, too.
10:02Man, I tell you, I watched his highlights.
10:04I was underwhelmed.
10:06The latest Matt Miller report, which is ESPN, one of their top draft guys.
10:12He has the commanders taking Sonny Stiles.
10:15Here's the quote.
10:16I've consistently heard that Stiles will be the pick if he's on the board.
10:21The commanders have also done work on the wide receiver class in the event that Stiles
10:24is gone, but commanders coach Dan Quinn has reportedly told contacts that Stiles is his
10:30favorite player in the class.
10:31That's who my guy Charlie Campbell has.
10:33I hope that happens.
10:34And without a second pick, Washington must determine which positions have depth.
10:38So I talked to my buddy, one of my closest friends on earth, and he's from Columbus.
10:43He's a diehard Ohio State guy.
10:46He knows these guys as well as the NFL personnel guys.
10:50He tells me, I didn't bias him, and he's excited about Caden McDonald potentially being the
10:56fifth first-round pick potentially from Ohio State.
10:59He said if he had to guess the two biggest bust potentials for Ohio State, Arvell Reese
11:07and Sonny Stiles, he says if any of them were going to bust, those are the two I'd bet
11:12on.
11:13He said in his opinion, and I happen to agree, I wouldn't just regurgitate his opinion, we
11:18happen to agree Caleb Downs is by far the safest pick.
11:21Stay away from the busts.
11:23Yeah.
11:23Got to dodge him on NFL draft night.
11:25I just think he's going to be really good.
11:26Are you welcome to call us?
11:28They're both going to go in the top eight.
11:29They're definitely going early.
11:31Yeah, for sure.
11:31You can call us throughout the show on an open line Thursday, 800-636-1067.
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11:49Coming up next, AI is going to tell you, yes, you, the radio listener, which of the junkies
11:55has made the best mock draft picks over the last decade plus.
11:59We will do that next here on The Fan.
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