00:00Rico Luhmann is a senior economist for transport and logistics at ING Research.
00:05He joins us now. Rico, thanks for your time.
00:06What does this latest development actually mean for shipping?
00:11Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty, clearly.
00:13So there's no safe passage possible.
00:16So it's still a lot of wait and see.
00:20So we have seen some more ships passing today and yesterday.
00:25But that's just a fraction of the usual number.
00:28So it's still a lot of wait and see.
00:31And it will be delayed, I'm afraid, the pass out of vessels.
00:37I understand that at least 600 tankers are still stuck at the strait and an estimated 20,000 seafarers.
00:44What are their options at this point?
00:48Well, I'm afraid not very much, right?
00:51So shipping companies are seeking guarantees to safe transit the strait.
00:57And, well, seafarers are a main concern for them.
01:01So it's a priority that it's safe for the seafarers.
01:05So unless there's no guarantee, most of them will just wait and see.
01:10And I guess there has to be an agreement, a peace agreement for a more stable situation.
01:18And, well, an environment that many more vessels can sail out.
01:24How is it going to impact the cost of insurance, particularly as two vessels have been fired on?
01:30And our understanding is that these vessels earlier got the all clear and then were told halfway through the journey,
01:36we'll know the strait is closed again.
01:37How is that going to affect guarantees as you talk about?
01:43Yeah, we know that insurance premiums are still pretty high.
01:47So there's war clauses still applicable here.
01:51And consequently, rates are high, elevated still.
01:56So there's not much of a change yet here.
01:59So it's also waiting for an agreement in order to see a reduction of insurance premiums.
02:07And this is also a factor in play for considerations of shipping companies.
02:13What are you seeing in terms of a plan B?
02:15Do you see lots of rerouting now?
02:21There's a lot of restructuring in global supply chains, indeed.
02:25So that's especially the case for energy products, of course, but also for containers, which are now going over land
02:34into the Middle East.
02:36So a lot of disruption here.
02:38You can see this reflected in tanker rates, especially.
02:43So this needs to be settled.
02:45And this will take time after there will be an agreement.
02:49How is this going to affect the economy?
02:52You know, there was some hope this time a day ago.
02:55We know the ceasefire is just a few days away from expiring and vastly different interpretations between Iran and Washington.
03:03How is this going to affect the global economy and us, the consumers?
03:07Yeah, well, it clearly affects the economy, whereas financial markets are pretty positive that there will be peace over time.
03:16So maybe next week or the week after.
03:18But for the economy, it's a matter of much more inflation.
03:22We've seen energy prices going up over 20 percent, and this trickles through the value chain.
03:31So that means also a higher cost for industrial inputs and eventually also higher food prices.
03:38So just for Europe, it means more or less a percentage point higher inflation for this year.
03:44Thank you so much for your time.
03:46That's Rico Luhmann.
03:47He's a senior economist for transport and logistics at ING Research.
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