00:00Let's speak now to Hanan Hussain from the global think tank Initiate Futures in Islamabad.
00:06Thank you so much for your time.
00:07So we're hearing Donald Trump saying more talks are on the cards.
00:11Iran is saying lift the blockade of our ports first.
00:14Realistically, do you think these talks are going to go ahead?
00:18I think the talks are going to go ahead.
00:20It's just a matter of time until when we see them materializing.
00:22So a couple of considerations which lead me to that conclusion.
00:24First of all, the U.S.'s naval blockade is meant as a pressure tactic for Iran to come forward for
00:30a deal.
00:30Whether a deal is acceptable or not would likely be a challenge between compromises and what each side sees as
00:36doable concessions.
00:37But I think the signaling from the U.S. front and we see the lead up in the preparations as
00:41well is something that the U.S. is willing to dial up the pressure.
00:43But they want to negotiate from a position of strength.
00:46And from the U.S. perspective, naval blockade will kind of suggest or add up for that being as a
00:51position of strength.
00:51But I think a key weakness over there is that unless Iran and the U.S. make tangible efforts to
00:56coordinate their expectations about what could qualify as a doable, workable, executable deal,
01:01I think any of these pressure tactics can risk upending the kind of trust surplus which both sides need in
01:06order to proceed forward, including to Pakistan's mediation.
01:09Iran is saying that it's quite far from any final agreement.
01:12Donald Trump much more upbeat.
01:14So is it clear actually how far apart the two sides are at this point?
01:20Yes, I think it's pretty clear.
01:21So, for example, on the uranium enrichment front, Iranians likely want to maintain it as something which would not have
01:27outside concessions.
01:28I think what we've seen over the past couple of weeks is the fact that the Iranians are willing to,
01:33for example, agree on a lesser threshold in terms of how much of a blockade we want on it.
01:38But I think what makes it a key sticking point is, for example, when the Iranians talk about oversight,
01:43it includes certain powers the U.S. has not exactly been too friendly or too cooperative towards.
01:47And also the threats about maintaining military pressure on Iran, as you talk about the Strait of Hormuz,
01:52as well as something which leads to a lot of irritants going forward.
01:55So I think in order for consensus to be built around these areas, there needs to be a tangible guarantee
02:00from the Iranian perspective about the U.S.
02:01force posture in the region that there are not going to be a lot of disruptions in terms of those
02:05negotiations.
02:06So I think from the way things stand right now, Strait of Hormuz and the uranium enrichment red lines are
02:11something which is so deeply entrenched
02:12that it leaves both sides to be far apart as opposed to be very closer.
02:16So that nuclear issue, it's such a difficult one to navigate.
02:19What would Tehran want in return for giving up their nuclear ambitions or delaying them?
02:27Yeah, so I think giving up nuclear ambitions is the kind of language which the Iranians have heard in the
02:32past,
02:32and they've seen it transpire to distrust as well.
02:34I think what the Iranians would basically want is a middle ground on the nuclear question.
02:39So, for example, giving up its right to nuclear enrichment is something which would be an incremental process.
02:44What needs to happen right now is a middle ground in terms of the years of concessions that the U
02:49.S. is willing to make for it.
02:50For example, if the U.S. is willing to, for example, lift up about over two-thirds of sanctions on
02:55Iran
02:55as a confidence-building measure for Iran to, for example, agree to U.S. demands about enrichment being capped
03:02or downsides considerably over the next coming years, I think that's something which the Iranians can work with.
03:06Because for the Iranians, they have to justify any deal with the U.S. domestically with their constituencies.
03:10Dharam is a far cry if the positions remain maximalist.
03:13So I think that's where the contention stands.
03:14How important are the role of good mediators in a situation like this where there's very little trust between both
03:22parties
03:22and we're not even sure if J.D. Vance, who is a very high-profile member of the U.S.
03:29cabinet,
03:29he might not even be there.
03:30It's not 100 percent clear.
03:32So talk to us about the role of mediators in a situation like this.
03:37It's critical.
03:38So, for example, when you talk about a mediator, he has to have favorable proximity to both adverse parties
03:45when their positions are polarized.
03:47You need to have a country, for example, Pakistan fits the bill on many occasions.
03:50For example, when you talk about coordinating expectation with Iran to have a strategic channel open with Washington
03:55allows you to kind of see where the constraints lie from each side's perspective.
03:59And I think on the other front, mediation becomes critical because when you talk about kind of tempering
04:04some of the external shocks which rise out of this conflict is something which the U.S.
04:08and the Iranians themselves cannot necessarily negotiate or bring to the table.
04:12I think that's where mediating parties such as Pakistan, you've seen Egypt and Turkey hit from the sidelines,
04:18can kind of create this atmosphere of shuttle diplomacy where both sides can communicate proposals,
04:23push back and forth without exactly being seen as weak in terms of the public diplomacy
04:28because obviously the temperature within the U.S. and Iran is to maintain a strong arm posture.
04:32So I think from that point of view, mediation becomes critical because what happens behind closed doors
04:36is this incremental consensus-building process which keeps diplomacy on the table.
04:40And I think from that point forward, Pakistan's role has been demonstrated as effective over the past couple of weeks.
04:46Building on that will require regional consensus, something which allows Pakistan to also filter in
04:50the feedback from Gulf powers who have been disproportionately affected into this process.
04:54So it remains very multi-vector.
04:55I think mediation kind of fits the bill on that front.
04:58Well, thank you so much for speaking to us.
04:59That's Hanan Hussein from the global think tank Initiate Futures in Islamabad.
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