00:00this is a very active pattern here we've had multiple days of severe weather
00:03what makes today different from some of the other days we've been up against
00:08yeah i think today we've got a little bit more of all the ingredients coming together with a
00:14few more pieces of stronger energy ejecting out and so you're pulling all those together
00:20especially with where our high placement area is today our focus is right along
00:25sort of that triple point where you've got your cold front your warm front as well as then
00:30obviously your service slow right there sort of all coming together so as you can see here through
00:36tuesday night we've got a high risk area really centered there from eastern iowa across southern
00:42wisconsin northern illinois into southwestern michigan looking at you know certainly destructive
00:48hail isolated tornadoes those wind gusts 60 to 70 mile an hour range as well as
00:55you know potentially all the way up to 85 mile an hour so those storms are going to be strong
00:59at the same time we have that main focus area now we've also got you know sort of the trailing
01:05cold front boundaries stretching you know back across you know southern iowa northwestern missouri
01:12and then into eastern kansas similar to where we saw some of those storms fire yesterday
01:17we've got that next piece of energy coming out we still have all the main ingredients of warm
01:22temperatures a lot of moisture to work with and then another piece of energy to to help kick
01:28everything off and guy when we dial it into the area with the greatest risk of tornadoes you mentioned
01:34the triple point here a warm front just to the north cold front coming in closer to the center of
01:39low pressure so what about this area here when it comes to the winds how are the winds blowing near
01:46the ground versus how are the winds blowing high up and how will that dictate where the tornado risk is
01:52yeah so a lot of times what we've seen you know through time and in studying tornadoes is especially
01:58if you have a warm front that's lifting from south to north it's a lot of times it's about you
02:04know
02:04having the right ingredients we've talked about that time and time again but it's about okay how do
02:09our conditions change maybe you did end up with some rain earlier today or you know earlier today maybe
02:14last night in this particular area and maybe things are a little bit more stable well as this whole
02:20you know the low pressure area with the riding northward warm front just re-energizes the area and a lot
02:28of times when you go rapidly you know destabilizing an area it actually adds a little extra oomph and you
02:34have a little bit more of turning of the winds at the surface because you've got more southerly or maybe
02:40even
02:40southeasterly winds at the surface you go up a little bit more in the atmosphere you're easily
02:45southwesterly winds and then you go up to about that 500 middle bars and you're almost more west
02:50southwest and so that really turning with height then allows the atmosphere to be able to turn and
02:58be a more productive environment for tornadic genesis so we'll be watching some of these storms here
03:04through the the midwest especially uh for that reason and later tonight uh looks like a lot of
03:09heavy rain may kind of repetitively move through southern michigan how concerned about flash flooding
03:13are we with this setup yeah i'm very concerned you know it is one of those things as the boundary
03:19or in
03:19this case that warm front sort of stalls out you get not only the main push of storms but then
03:25as you can
03:25see you know with future radar here all that additional line of storms and moisture essentially
03:30extending back from illinois back into texas that's still pointing towards that warm front across
03:36southern you know southern michigan and so that moisture just continues to feed as long as there's
03:41enough instability where thunderstorms can continue to regenerate then that area is really going to be
03:47a focus for uh flash flooding during the overnight hours it's a very loaded pattern here and i've clicked
03:53through wednesday and into thursday so obviously within all this wednesday we have another day with severe
03:58storms uh how do we expect this to play out looks a little bit noisier during the daytime hours instead
04:03of waiting for things to initiate and fire up late in the day uh do you expect a lot more
04:08during the
04:08daytime hours yep i think certainly tomorrow um with the next piece of energy kicking out we'll have
04:15all the leftover boundaries from the storms that fire uh later today in this evening and so as that
04:21additional piece of energy comes out you're still going to have all the ingredients in there to play
04:27with um the focal point of the the main frontal boundary will be a little bit further east however
04:33you'll still have all the same ingredients there to get thunderstorms and certainly severe thunderstorms
04:38with a moderate risk across a good chunk of the midwest tomorrow and meanwhile guy in the pacific
04:44northwest we got some pretty decent snow coming down four to eight inches that's no qualmy pass
04:48more than that and some of the uh the oregon passes that storm system enters the plains then on friday
04:53so
04:53thursday's kind of a lower day for severe risk maybe the storms wash out over the east uh but
04:58how does this play out on friday then yeah unfortunately that piece of energy that uh as we
05:04see across you know really the central part of the rockies they're extending down to about the four
05:09corners as this piece of energy ejects out across the plains especially friday evening there
05:16we're really looking at another severe weather event um typically with your whole trough as it that was
05:22expected to you know forecast to move out across the area on friday that is typically one of the patterns
05:29you see this time of year that you know is prolific in producing severe weather so certainly the focus
05:35is going to be on friday as well
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