- 4 hours ago
Arsenal will be top of the Premier League at Christmas, but their recent form has been a concern. Problems at the top end of the pitch - both scoring and creating - have seen Manchester City cut the gap to just two points. Adam Clery looks at why, even if it's not easy to watch, everything is still going according to plan for Mikel Arteta.
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00:00Hello ho ho everybody! Christmas joke and welcome to the Adam Cleary football channel where Arsenal
00:07and I'm going to use the sports science term here are having a wobble. Just a few weeks ago
00:12they were six clear at the top and seven ahead of City but as I record this they've just ground
00:17out
00:17a minging 1-0 at the Hill Dickey to wrestle back the first place they lost earlier in the day
00:23to Manchester City. It's all getting a little bit nervous sure and it maybe starts to feel like
00:29it's slipping away but we are here today to tell you Mr or Mrs Arsenal fan not to worry you
00:35are still
00:35massive favourites to win the Premier League this season and while it's not easy to watch
00:40it is crucially still the plan.
00:47Right so on the menu for you today Martin Erdegaard presenting more of a problem to his team than a
00:53solution mathematical proof ish that they're going to win the league and do you remember
00:58leave Brittany alone? Well that but just for Victor Jokeres. And also just in case you somehow missed
01:04it a reminder we are brought to you proudly in partnership with our close personal friends
01:09slash official data providers FOTMOB whose app you should download immediately because we were using
01:15it before we even started working with them. It's that good. Now first off let's look at the form
01:20because in that opening part of the season aside from this defeat where they were easily the better
01:25team that is a run of six wins and the only draw was a last minute equaliser that denied Man
01:31City a
01:32massive massive win so that's all gravy. But since then it's been devastating late goals conceded against
01:39Sunderland and Villa needing an injury time goal to make it safe against Brentford an injury time
01:44own goal to even beat Wolves and having to come back from a goal down to only draw against 10
01:51man
01:51Chelsea which is less gravy. So what's um what happened to these boys then? Did they suddenly get really
01:57bad at scoring goals? Did they get less good at defending? What's the deal? Well if you go and stick
02:02the
02:02actual chance creation numbers alongside all of this then no they actually stayed pretty consistent
02:09across both of these two runs. Both patches have like between 15 and 20 chances created
02:14that's really good the shot conversion percentage even jumps up which is great and if you will allow
02:21me to go heavy on the XG then between Forest and Burnley on average it was like 1.7 and
02:28from Sunderland
02:29onwards they actually outperform that average in all but two of the games. So yeah no matter which stat you
02:36like to put your faith in nothing dramatic has gone wrong for them in the final third and yes okay
02:42I
02:42did see the Wolves game with my eyes and it clearly uh was not clicking there but that is just
02:47one game
02:48across this seven there is no discernible drop-off in what they're doing. And then defensively as well
02:55you've obviously got the Villa game as an outlier where they've got a makeshift back four give up 15
03:00shots and quite literally more than 10 times the XG they did in that Everton game. Like genuinely over
03:0720% of all the XG they've conceded this season was in that one game. But outside of that they
03:15have been
03:16as rock solid as they were at the start. And I do just feel it's worth like really pointing this
03:22out
03:22because those are simply staggering numbers you're looking at there. In 10 of their 17 games this
03:29season teams have created chances against them worth half a goal or less. That is so mathematically
03:36small as to be practically nothing in real terms and it's in 10 of 17 games. And I'm not gonna
03:44get
03:44too bogged down in XG here because it is Christmas you might be uh watching this with your dad but
03:49for
03:49some vital context here right. Arsenal are averaging about 0.5 XG conceded this season and Liverpool won
03:57the league last year with over one. Twice as much per game. So if as the saying goes it is
04:05a defense that
04:05wins you a title then surely this is still HMS piss the league isn't it? But instead it feels more
04:13like
04:13depending on where you get your cultural reference points from that bit in Terminator 2 with Pep Guardiola
04:19hanging off the back of the car or that exact same bit in the Simpsons that is based off of
04:25it. And of
04:26course the discourse around all of this right now is goals. Depending on which side of the argument you
04:32fall Arsenal are either not creating enough of them or not scoring enough of them. And for the latter
04:37it is Victor Jokeres that's getting a bit of the blame. 15 appearances this season but only
04:44three goals in open play at ÂŁ64 million is it fair to have expected a better return from him. And
04:54well yeah obviously it is but when you analyse his performances with the team as a whole it's a
05:00little bit more nuanced than simply just he should be scoring more goals. He's averaging less than two
05:06shots per game which is well under half what Haaland manages and well below the league average. But because
05:13he is not very visibly missing really good chances a lot of people are saying this is down to his
05:19movement he's not doing the right runs off the ball he's not attacking crosses he is not doing what is
05:23physically required if you want to pitch to score goals in this league. But watching the Everton match
05:30I don't think that's entirely fair. This moment really stood out to me actually because this is
05:35perfect centre forward play and Arsenal just do not take advantage of it. Like if you look at him
05:41as that move develops he is perfectly positioned on the defender's blind side and he begins his run
05:47before Timber even gets released down the side. And that might look a little bit basic but it's
05:53actually really good reading of the game. Like he's attacking this space before Tarkovsky has even
05:59spotted the danger and he manufactures this scenario this much space for a tap-in. And don't get me wrong
06:06it's not glaringly easy for Timber this. He is being closed down but all he needs to do is roll
06:12it
06:12across or try and roll it across and it's a goal but instead he wants to cut that back to
06:18Saka. Now
06:19the thing is that's still a pretty decent chance and if Saka winds up scoring it then nobody today
06:24is remotely arsed. In fact you'd even go back and say oh look making that direct a run Jokeres has
06:31gone and
06:31created the space from which the goal is scored. But as it ends up being blocked it's not really a
06:37great
06:37chance. The game finishes 1-0 and it all gets a little bit nervy towards the end. It's very easy
06:43to look
06:44at him and say these games are passing him by. But I just look at this moment here and I
06:49don't know
06:50maybe Arsenal fans you'll disagree with this. You will have seen him play more than I will this season
06:55but I do feel every game I see him in there's something like this. Like he is a centre forward
07:00which
07:00relies on good service which isn't provided to him a great deal but nonetheless Arsenal are still
07:07a better attacking team and make more chances just like this one when he is on the pitch. Like he
07:15has
07:15disrupted Everton there to make that an opportunity. Can he be doing a little bit more off the ball?
07:20Could his finishing be better? And yeah absolutely both those things are true but when you look at that
07:25example and this next one we're about to show you can see a lot of his problems come from just
07:32a lack
07:32of synergy and understanding with his teammates. So we've got here basically a 3v3 and Erdogan winds up
07:40holding onto the ball and over hitting this pass out wide. Jokeres still manages to get it but from
07:46this position all he can really do is cross it and it comes to nothing. But if Erdogan got given
07:52Bernard's watch for Christmas I don't know how many people are going to stand that reference this
07:56is the moment he should probably release that ball. It's still good defending from Everton because they
08:02don't make this easy but all you're ever trying to do as a creative player is give your teammates the
08:08best possible chance to do something. And it might well be that Keane reacts well, reads it, cuts out
08:14the ball but an earlier straighter pass along this line would give Jokeres the chance to get a touch
08:21ahead and inside the defender to get himself through on goal. Like that is how a lot of centre forward
08:28play works. He hasn't got to be quicker than Keane or stronger than Keane or dominate him, he just has
08:33to get there a fraction before so he can position his body between the defender and the ball and from
08:39there he's either getting fouled or he's getting a shot but it all comes down to where the pass puts
08:46him. But when you see moments like this where they're just not quite on the same page it does
08:50kind of make sense. Like Arsenal haven't had a centre forward consistently making those sort of runs in
08:57I don't even know how long. Like Erdogan arguably hasn't played with someone like that since
09:03Aubameyang and that was four or five years ago and it's not as if you know he's playing for some
09:08other team at the minute that does have a centre forward that loves that kind of service off those
09:13kind of runs and he could like take what he's learning there and apply it here but just
09:21Nope I've got nothing. Anyway though the reason we're highlighting Erdogan in this situation is
09:26because he is also getting a bit of stick from that other side of the argument which is they're not
09:31creating enough. But the numbers again will tell you this is clearly a more nuanced issue than that
09:36like shot creating actions per 90 minutes. He is fourth in the Premier League this season behind
09:43Bruno Fernandes who takes every single set piece for Man United which obviously contributes and
09:50Doku and Shirky who have way less responsibility deeper on the pitch than he does. His key passes which
09:57is just every single chance he makes are off the charts. His passes into the penalty area, his passes into
10:02the
10:03final third, his carries into the final third, these all suggest he's a creativity machine. And yet you so
10:12often see situations like this where he's playing the ball wider or later than a centre forward would
10:19really like. But just if I may allow me to show you something else. This is the second half. Everton
10:25are
10:25thinking they can maybe get something here so they're really stepping up the pressure. They're trying to win the ball
10:30back. There could be a big draw in this for them. Erdogan is not waiting for the ball high up
10:36the pitch so
10:36that he can be creative but instead he is dropping deep to ensure that Everton cannot put pressure on
10:43them in their own half. And when he gets it he turns and he immediately beats that first line of
10:49pressure
10:49then drives through the second line with his carrying and then when he has to pass it look where that
10:55ball
10:55goes. He splits Everton's defence with it and it goes into that same wide area that he forced Jokeres into
11:03with his
11:03pass before. And that is because that is just Martin Erdogan's game. Either through instinct or instruction
11:10that is always where he looks to find his teammates in the final third. Like this is his pass map
11:16from that game.
11:18If you think it looks slightly weird, it is. They were the away side so we've had to do it
11:22upside down. But it's the number eight
11:23so I didn't think anybody would really mind. And you can just see like when he's trying to get the
11:28ball
11:28into the final third, almost every single pass is into this space here. And you would quite literally
11:35have to go and ask Mikel Arteta to explain this to you whether it's something that does his head in
11:41or specifically what he is asking him to do. But the fact is that's his game. Like you go back
11:47to that
11:47example we've just looked at and Gabriel Jesus is making a similar movement to Jokeres here. Like
11:53he would absolutely want that pass in behind the defence to try and get onto. And it's arguably even
11:59on. But the safer option, the better percentage where he can guarantee Arsenal will retain the
12:05ball further up is the one he plays. But the important part of this move is not this pass here.
12:10It's how he beats the pressure early on. And that is something that Martin Erdegaard is nigh on
12:17untouchable at in this division. Like yes, he could offer you a little bit more in the final third.
12:22But when he drops deep, when the pressure is on, Arsenal never lose that ball. And moments like
12:27that are so important to the way Arsenal play because it means they can always move it up the pitch
12:33at their own pace. They never have to resort to just humping it long and it coming straight back to
12:39them. It's how they stay in control of games. And I absolutely promise you, right, whether this does
12:45his head in or not, right, Mikel Arteta will absolutely take frustrating little moments like
12:52this one if it means that when they're in situations like this one, he has nothing to worry about. And
12:59that, you see, is precisely why Arsenal have nothing to worry about. Because while the concerns over this
13:07man's finishing and this man's creativity are absolutely valid, yes, they are still all part
13:15of a wider plan that is working. With the sort of dominance Man City and Liverpool have had over
13:22previous seasons, right, it is very easy to forget that there is more than one way to win a league.
13:28You go back through all the recent title winners and none of them were ever astoundingly secure at the
13:33back. But they always had the firepower to just go and get another goal out of nothing if they really
13:39needed it. But Arsenal are not doing that. And to be blunt, they don't really look capable of doing
13:45that. Arteta's not that sort of coach. But their approach to this season has been, you will not create
13:52good chances against us. You will not see enough of the ball in the final third and we will not
13:59be
13:59making mistakes with it at the back. So they are going into pretty much every single game knowing
14:05they're only going to need one or two goals to go and win the thing. And yes, if someone pings
14:11one in
14:11from 30 yards or there's a very fortunate bounce of the ball in the box, then it makes their inability
14:16to go and drop three or four goals on the lesser sides look like the wheels are falling off. It
14:23makes it
14:23incredibly nervous if you're a fan. But I promise you, this is by design. You take Tottenham out of
14:30the picture here for a second. And at the start of November, Arsenal went on their big wobble. They
14:36had loads of injuries, three away games against teams in the top six, Burnley and Wolves who stuck 11
14:43men behind the ball and could only average, I should have written this down, like 1.3 goals a game
14:50or
14:50something which would never normally win you a league. And yet somehow they lost one game. And
14:56crucially, they didn't lose two of the toughest games on there. And even Villa, who've been the
15:01one team to really open them up quite easily in a game of football, still needed an insane scramble
15:08in the box in like the 90-12th minute or whatever it was to even beat them. So the point
15:14I am trying to
15:15make as they sit top at Christmas is that unless they suddenly lose the ability to defend this well,
15:22they will, I think quite comfortably in the end, still be Premier League champions. And just if that
15:30still feels like too precarious a prediction for you, right, then I also think that Man City could run
15:37Arsenal all the way to the end of the season unless Erling Haaland has a downturn in form or get
15:43some sort
15:44of injury. So every team has to be built around something. And the thing Arsenal are built around,
15:51this near generational ability to stop other teams creating chances, is the one thing across this
15:58season they have remained incredibly consistent at. It's just, yeah, it's a far more anxious way to watch
16:07your team win a title than if they just kept running away with it game after game after game, but
16:12would
16:12occasionally leave themselves really open at the back. It's not a pleasant watch, I'll grant you, but
16:19I still think it'll work. So yes, there you are. If you're an Arsenal fan, your gift from me and
16:25all of
16:25us here at ACFC this Christmas is pretty much a complete stranger, giving you a little bit of
16:30reassurance that your team is going to win the league. Sorry I didn't wrap it. But that is not the
16:35only present we are giving all of you. No, if you've stayed around till the very end, then chances are
16:40you
16:40like this sort of thing. And we have already made, recorded, edited, they're good to go, right?
16:45Two Christmas videos for you. First of all, we have done what I think might be the first ever tactical
16:52breakdown of the 1966 World Cup final. That is going out on Christmas Day. And then we've also,
17:00by special request of the members, created a video showing you how Leicester City won the Premier
17:06League that year. The Miracle on Filbert Street. And I cannot wait for you to see both of those.
17:12But the thing is, if you cannot wait, then channel members are getting them a few days earlier. I
17:19haven't quite got the scheduling sorted out in my head yet, but they will get them at least
17:23a couple of days before they go out for everyone else. If you'd like to see them super, super, super
17:28soon, like possibly even right now or tomorrow for the 66 video, depending on when you're watching
17:34this, you can become a channel member and we're going to do so many cool things in the new year
17:39with the members. Did somebody say live events that you'll get into either for free or heavily
17:46discounted? No, no, they didn't. Well, they should. But anyway, though, I'm not standing here teasing
17:52you because I have to get a train back to Newcastle very, very soon. So you can get me across
17:55all the
17:56social medias at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y, where you can spend the next like week or so
18:00watching me
18:01the entire tub of quality streets and reconnecting with people I only ever see once a year. What
18:06fun. And of course, subscribe to us here at the Adam Cleary football channel for 2026 because
18:13we're going to hit 200K really soon and that'll be unbearable about that. But yes, as this is the
18:17last sort of like proper video we're doing before Christmas, allow me just to say I hope you have
18:22a wonderful time, whatever it is you like to do or like not to do, most importantly. And
18:28just thanks for being with us on this, our first year of ACFC. The views, the subscribers,
18:36the awards we won, I did not predict a single bit of it. So thank you for what has been
18:40a
18:40genuinely life-changing 2025. We're going to go even bigger in 2026, which is terrifying but
18:48exciting nonetheless. But to you right now, have a lovely break if you can get one and good luck
18:54out there. If you're somebody who has to work through all of this, you are the biggest hero
18:58of them all. I'm rambling now. I'm going to go. Merry Christmas. Hope the Arsenal, that felt weird
19:04to say. Goodbye.
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