- 4 months ago
The goals and the chances have dried up for Arsenal in January, and their comfortable lead at the top of the Premier League has been cut by Manchester City and Aston Villa, but why? Adam Clery looks at their recent performances and the underlying numbers to show why Mikel Arteta's team are finding things a lot harder in front of goal right now.
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00:00Alright, so welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel and today we are going to be looking at the supposed
00:05creativity issues that Arsenal are having.
00:09And we're going to start right here because there's been absolutely loads made of this exact moment in the Man
00:15United-Arsenal game leading up to the equaliser.
00:18Sky made a big deal of it on Monday Night Football, Rooney did a segment on Match of the Day,
00:22so I'm going to really quickly highlight it for you because it does A, show you something that's wrong, but
00:28also B, is getting quite badly misinterpreted.
00:32So Man United, you can see they're pressing very aggressively, which at 1-0 down at the Emirates is very,
00:38very commendable, but Arsenal do actually outmaneuver them here.
00:43Declan Rice shows for a layoff between the press, he gives it to Zubomendi and then he loses Kai Sado
00:49with his run into this space.
00:51And everybody has latched on to this exact moment because a player of Martin Zubomendi's quality should be able to
00:58thread that pass through the press into Rice's run and then get Arsenal moving up the pitch.
01:05In fact, if you look at it from the wide angle, that space actually extends all the way to Man
01:09United's back line and carrying that forward would be a really, really good opportunity for them.
01:15But of course, he does not take that option, he instead decides to play it safe.
01:20Except it isn't safe at all because they're being pressured by Mbomo and Fernandes, they give that ball away and
01:26concede the equaliser.
01:27And since the final whistle went on that game, you've constantly been hearing the term risk-averse.
01:34The thing is, while this is the second time Zubomendi's given the ball away for a goal this season, this
01:39is not a him problem, this is an Arsenal problem.
01:43They much prefer to keep the ball in these situations rather than making what looks like a risky pass.
01:49But for me, situations like this one here are not the problem.
01:55In fact, moments like that are incredibly, incredibly rare for Arsenal this season.
02:00They've only given away three goals as a result of an error like this all season, which has them 12th
02:06on this graph, but it's only one higher than the bottom team.
02:10And when you look at the other teams they're down there with, they have so much more of the ball
02:14at the back than almost all of those teams except maybe Liverpool.
02:19So if you sort of do that in your head, as like mistakes as a percentage of the amount of
02:23possession you have, they're actually bottomed by miles.
02:27Like they've attempted 3,000 more passes than Leeds, 4,000 more passes than Crystal Palace and haven't made any
02:33more mistakes in so doing.
02:35So I, me, personally, do not think you can give them a load of grief for being risk-averse at
02:41the back because that is just how Arsenal play and they're really, really good at it.
02:46What you can give them a load of grief for though is in the final third.
02:50Over the last three Premier League games there is no getting away from it, they have hit a bit of
02:55a rough patch and the goals have begun to dry up.
02:58And just checking the till very quickly, it shows you it's not just down to bad luck or good goalkeeping
03:03because they've gone from averaging over 20 shots a game in the previous three fixtures to averaging just 12 in
03:10these.
03:10And that's like, I'm not any good at maths, a 40% drop across two home games and then away
03:18to 17th.
03:18But again, I don't necessarily think this is the problem.
03:23The real worry comes when you start to look at the quality of those chances.
03:28So if we could all just very quickly put our XG pants on.
03:33The raw numbers aren't terrible.
03:35Their XG has been all right in those three fixtures, suggesting that maybe they should have had a few more
03:40goals.
03:41But when you reduce that to XG purely from open play, you do then see the issue.
03:50Those average out at 0.5 per game.
03:54Now, just for a little bit of context here, because I know some people are still just don't really like,
03:59that's that, OK?
04:000.5 per game as an average would put you this season somewhere between Everton and Burnley in terms of
04:08your open play chance generation.
04:11And yes, OK, it is.
04:12It's only three games and those are three tough games, sandwiched in between three other competitions.
04:19But still, that is a worrying run to suddenly go on when your aspirations are literally win the Premier League.
04:26And more importantly, when you look at this team here, the reason that is happening has been the same in
04:32every one of those games.
04:34They are really struggling to break teams down and keep finding themselves playing through a press with ease
04:40because they don't take risks here, but then they get into the final third and then run out of ideas
04:45for how to penetrate the middle of the pitch.
04:48And honestly, every single time I've watched Arsenal in, what is it, January, right?
04:53I cannot believe how quickly and effectively they can move the ball in their own half
04:57compared to how much they then slow it down in the opposition half.
05:01But just forget all these numbers for a second, right?
05:03Let's look at this in reality.
05:05In the first few minutes against Man United, Arsenal scrap a ball that gets Odegaard turned behind the midfield line,
05:12which is brilliant.
05:13That's exactly where you want him.
05:15There is a very, very small window here where this ball is maybe on.
05:20And it is just a fraction of a second, right?
05:23But Saka does have the beating of Shaw here.
05:25The distance between him and Martinez is too big.
05:28Odegaard can see it.
05:29He's facing the right way.
05:30I don't necessarily think it would definitely come off, but the ability to try it is definitely there.
05:36Unsurprisingly, though, he opts not to try that, which I will stress is not a criticism.
05:41I don't think it was definitely on.
05:43It's just a decision he's made.
05:44And instead, he faces the other way and he fires this pass out to the left.
05:49And the thing is, this ball is not risk averse.
05:52It's not timid football.
05:53There's really good vision and execution in that.
05:56And I think if you really watch Odegaard, he does try to make things happen a little bit more than
06:03people give him credit for.
06:05Like, not enough.
06:06Don't get me wrong.
06:06He should do an awful lot more, but he doesn't quite play with the handbrake on as much as people
06:12like to say.
06:12Like, even this move here ends after he shows for it in a tight area, which is good.
06:17And he tries this through ball into Zubomendi.
06:20And that's not risk averse.
06:22It's a decent idea.
06:23It just doesn't come off.
06:24But just, yep, I can feel the heat radiating through the camera here, right?
06:28If you think I'm letting him off a bit too lightly there, let's just pop a little pin in it
06:33for a couple of minutes, right?
06:34We are going to come back to him.
06:36Now, forget about the players for one second, right?
06:38The main problem Arsenal face is one of the inherent problems with the 4-3-3 system.
06:44Because the fact you haven't got a 10, right, means these two eights go into here.
06:47You tend to push the fullbacks up.
06:49And Arsenal's entire attacking structure is about the rotations in the wide areas between these groups of three players.
06:57A wide forward, a number eight, and usually a fullback.
07:00They get into these positions.
07:01And between them, they try and open up the opposition defense to create chances in the center of the box.
07:07It has always been what Arsenal are good at, but there is a real rigidity to it that defenses are
07:12getting increasingly wise to.
07:14When it goes out to the left here, you've got Rice and Capier and Trossard.
07:18They start in this configuration, but then they rotate so Rice goes in behind and the defender drops.
07:24They're trying to move the defense around to create some space.
07:27But the thing is, while all three of those players are tremendous, wonderful, magnificent footballers in their own ways,
07:36none of them are particularly good at unpicking an organized defense in a really tight area.
07:42That's not any of their games.
07:44But okay, yes, I hear you.
07:46That's not even really their responsibility.
07:48Arsenal do have players who are good at that, and they tend to be on this right-hand side,
07:53which is usually Erdegaard, Saka, and Jurian Timber.
07:55So this is the same move as before, and unable to get down the left-hand side, they work it
07:59out to the right.
08:00But just look at the situation here.
08:03Because they are always trying to do things through the rotations in these triangles,
08:08when it gets out there, you've got Saka massively isolated out on the touchline.
08:13Timber is being tracked back, so it isn't really an option.
08:16And realistically, what can Martin Erdegaard do from here?
08:20In the end, Timber just keeps his run going.
08:22Saka tries to feed him, but it goes out of play.
08:24And the next time they're in this exact same scenario, Saka does beat his man,
08:29but the defenders get their angles right, and there's no cutback option.
08:33And yes, you're absolutely right.
08:34The mad part is that the goal they get does come from a combination of these three players in this
08:40area of the pitch.
08:40But it's like a stabbed blind cross, a scuffed shot, and a deflected own goal.
08:45So you couldn't really say that has opened up Manchester United's defense and created something good.
08:51But the thing is, while this wasn't great, it was still all they managed to do.
08:56And if you go and look at this game's areas of attack graph,
09:00which if you've never seen it before, just shows you like which parts of the pitch do they keep trying
09:05to play into,
09:05you can see it's massively, massively weighted down this right-hand side.
09:10And if you watched it, this won't come as any shock to you whatsoever,
09:13because Man United settled in deep, they closed off the space,
09:16and devoid of any other ideas, they kept feeding the ball out to Pakaio Saka
09:21in the hope he could beat a man 1v1 and open up something that way.
09:26Which, I mean, given his due, he did do on occasion,
09:29but not reliably enough to make a number of decent chances.
09:32And then later, when they brought Madweke on, the plan was the same.
09:35They just kept feeding it to him instead.
09:37And what is particularly interesting about this graph here, right,
09:41is if you look at the same one for the Nottingham Forest game,
09:44and don't worry about the colour, it's just different if you're home or away, right,
09:48you will see the weighting is exactly the same.
09:52They're still trying to feed that ball out to the right-hand side
09:55in the hope that somebody can win a 1v1 and open up a defence,
10:00even though this was Nonny Madweke starting.
10:03He played 57 minutes before they replaced him with Saka.
10:07The personnel change, the idea is the same.
10:10They find it so difficult to get any joy down the left-hand side,
10:14they almost always just give it to whoever's on the right instead.
10:18And it's this bias, this lopsidedness, that's making life difficult for them.
10:23Most teams now know that if you sit in against Arsenal,
10:26when they do come at you,
10:27it's almost entirely going to be in this part of the pitch.
10:31So the question then is, how do you fix that?
10:35And for me, the obvious answer would be personnel.
10:39Do you, for example, need to pick both Declan Rice and Martin Zubomendi
10:44in the games where you know you're going to have a little bit more control?
10:48Could you put Rice deeper and have a more dynamic presence up here?
10:51Could you maybe try playing Eze out on this left-hand side
10:55so that when you do end up forming this triangle here,
10:57it's got a little bit more unpredictability to it?
11:00He can be a little bit more direct, give defenders more to worry about than, say, Trossard would.
11:06Or could you perhaps form your back four in such a way
11:08that when these players arrive to support, they are not centre-backs?
11:13I know Riccardo Calafiore is very good at this, but he's not here.
11:17And are teams really worried about Ben White or Encaffier?
11:21Is there not somebody else you could use?
11:23Possibly with a double-barrelled surname who might offer you a little bit more?
11:26And the answer to all of those questions is, shit, maybe.
11:31But also, obviously, maybe not.
11:33Maybe Arteta has looked at this and thought, yeah, okay, I do need to rebalance the attack,
11:38but I don't want to unbalance the defence in the process.
11:41You would imagine all of these have occurred to him.
11:44So instead, for the next best solution, you have to go back to this idea of risk versus reward.
11:49And to show you why this is a team problem, right, we've got the wide shot here from the Man
11:54United game.
11:55And at this moment, Saliba has got Saka screaming for the ball to feet
12:01and Timber getting into this space behind the defence.
12:05And those are two options that are pretty exciting, but also, obviously, quite risky.
12:12So instead, he doesn't do that and he gives it sideways to Odegaard.
12:16But when he does, just for a moment, this option out wide opens up for him.
12:23And Declan Rice is deep, yes, but he is about to go the right way.
12:26So you've potentially got a 2v1 out there.
12:31But because, I presume, there is no wide triangle out there to try and set an attack,
12:36he does not pass that ball.
12:39And instead, he just tries to carry it out himself so that he can be the third man.
12:43But, of course, that doesn't happen and Buemo cuts it off.
12:46The pass winds up going backwards.
12:48And there you are, everybody, straight back at square one.
12:52Even in just these few seconds, there are three risky but potentially very rewarding options for Arsenal in this move.
12:59And they don't chance a single one of them.
13:02And the thing is, right, I don't actually think that loads of risky passes should just immediately become Arsenal's game
13:09plan.
13:09But given they're having problems in the final third, teams are wising up to them at set pieces.
13:15We've seen this problem of them getting gummed up down the right-hand side.
13:18They do need something else in their back pocket.
13:22And because they move the ball so well in their own third, these options are there for them in the
13:29final third.
13:30They just have to, as a team, take them more often.
13:33So, yes, those are the numerous causes and potential solutions to Arsenal's creativity crisis.
13:39I do not believe it is all Martin Odegaard's fault.
13:43But also, I do think he is the man best placed to fix it for them.
13:49Now, if you have enjoyed this video and, you know, it's no big deal.
13:52I mean, I only worked really hard on it.
13:54Whatever.
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14:12And that's all the stuff I have to tell you for now.
14:15Quick caveat at the end.
14:17I've recorded this before the Champions League game.
14:20Because I am in Paris.
14:29So, I don't know what that score is going to be.
14:31So, if they win 16-0 there and they look amazing again, then remember this is a Premier League problem
14:36only.
14:37That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.
14:40Goodbye.
14:41Still thinking they'll win the league.
14:44Just.
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