00:01Look, it's a pretty quick trip to Brunei. In fact, Jade, I'm told the Prime Minister
00:06might have touched down just a couple of minutes ago. But it's only really a day that he'll
00:10be spending there in the small Sultanate on the island of Borneo. The plan is basically
00:16today to go to a war memorial. At that war memorial, we expect Anthony Albanese to pay
00:21tribute to some of the Australian troops who, in World War II, paid with their lives in
00:26the liberation of Borneo in 1945. And then on top of that, we expect that he will hold
00:33meetings tomorrow with the Sultan of Brunei, one of the wealthiest individuals in the world.
00:38And of course, this trip, unsurprisingly, is all about oil and what guarantees Australia
00:42might be able to extract from Brunei as well as Malaysia in the face of the shocks that
00:48we've been hearing about so constantly because of the war in Iran. So two days, really one
00:54day, one and a bit days in Brunei, and then another day in Malaysia. We expect him to fly
00:58to Kuala Lumpur and there in KL, he'll sit down for talks with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime
01:03Minister of Malaysia. And again, fuel and the war on Iran likely to be at the very top of
01:08the agenda.
01:09What are the economic relationships like, Stephen, between these two nations and Australia?
01:14And what influence does this give the Prime Minister?
01:18Look, Australia isn't just a price taker here. Australia does have influence and that's
01:23because we're a big energy supplier for much of Southeast Asia. In the case of Malaysia,
01:28we supply the bulk of their LNG, which is a really important part of their energy mix.
01:33In the case of Brunei, it's not so much energy, it's food. Australia is a major food exporter
01:39to the region and a lot of our food exports, or some of Brunei's, quite a few of, quite
01:44a portion of Brunei's food exports come from Australia. So Australia is providing essential
01:49goods to the region, whether that's energy, protein, whatever. And that gives us a level
01:54of leverage. In return, we need things like petrol and diesel from these companies and
02:00from these countries. So the argument the Prime Minister is making here is not really
02:04one, you know, if you don't continue to supply us with fuel, we'll turn off the tap. I don't
02:08think that's a strategy that Australia is going to undertake, at least not now. But the argument
02:13they're making, or that the Prime Minister is going to make, is look, you depend on us for
02:16these critical inputs into your economies. You need us to feed your economies or to feed
02:21your people. In turn, the industries that give you that fuel, that give you that food,
02:27that depends on diesel. Australian farming and mining, to a degree, still really do run
02:31on diesel. So his argument is, even if things do get difficult, you need to put Australia
02:36at the very top of the queue to ensure that we try and keep that flow of essential goods
02:41running. And the Foreign Minister is also travelling with Anthony Albanese. What is she hoping to
02:47achieve on this trip, do you think? Look, I suspect because this is such a fluid
02:53and febrile environment, the Foreign Minister will want to follow up immediately with any
02:58commitments or high level commitments that the Prime Minister secures. She's going to head
03:03on to Singapore, as you mentioned, after the trip to Brunei and Malaysia. I suspect what
03:08she'll be doing there is trying to rapidly implement the broader commitments that Anthony Albanese
03:13and Lawrence Wong struck in Singapore last week. This is all about expediting agreements
03:19on things like trade in essential supplies to try and get Australia a bit more certainty
03:23when it comes to oil supplies. And I imagine that it will be a similar story in places like
03:28Brunei and Malaysia. It's because of the urgency of the situation, it's probably not such a
03:34great idea to have this high level meeting, then let the issue rest for a few months or
03:38so or a few weeks and then crack on with work. The Foreign Minister, I suspect, will be there
03:42to make sure things get underway as quickly as possible. That's definitely what's happening
03:46in Singapore. And I imagine it will be a pattern repeated across Southeast Asia. There are an
03:51awful lot of countries that are going to be putting their hands up, asking for fuel from these
03:55places. So Australia won't be alone. We have to force our way to the front of the queue.
Comments