00:01The United States and Iran's maximalist positions are opening gambits.
00:08Neither side was able to bridge the difference significantly,
00:12but this was never going to be a one-off.
00:15There was a two-week window that could be extended in this ceasefire
00:19for negotiations to take place, and I think that's what we're seeing now,
00:23this process playing out.
00:26And obviously both sides are keeping their cards relatively close to their chest
00:30because it is an ongoing negotiation.
00:34President Trump has narrowed his criteria for success over the weeks
00:42of this bombing campaign, and now he seems focused on Iran's ability
00:47to enrich uranium.
00:50There appears to be some negotiations about the length of time
00:54that and to what degree, if any, Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium.
00:59Other issues about support for proxy groups and ballistic missile development
01:04seems to be on the back burner at the moment.
01:07Iran, during the conflict, as we saw, was able both to regionalise the conflict
01:15by attacking countries hosting US bases in the region and also globalise it
01:20by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and having an economic effect that impacted
01:25on large parts of the global economy.
01:29So Iran still has those levers available to it.
01:33The US seems to be less keen to resume the bombing campaign for all the obvious reasons.
01:40And what we've seen now is a naval blockade of ships going to or from Iranian ports,
01:48and that has been in place over the past 24 hours or so,
01:53and also reports of a crackdown on financial institutions dealing with Iranian entities as well.
02:01President Trump, in particular, has a relatively short attention span.
02:07His opening gambit, the military aspect of trying to force Iran's hand,
02:11hasn't proven successful.
02:13And on the other hand, we know that Iran has a proven crack record
02:17of being able to absorb punishment over an extended period of time.
02:22So we really don't know who has got the upper hand.
02:26And really, as long as we get away with these negotiations and there is a lasting ceasefire,
02:34I think that's the best that the world and the region can expect.
02:38One of the aspects of this blockade that's focused on Iranian ports as the determinant of
02:48whether the blockade is imposed, China gains a percentage of its oil imports,
02:55its fuel energy imports from Iran.
02:58And so the $64,000 question is whether the US blockade is going to apply to vessels transiting
03:07to or from China and whether the US would be willing to apply that blockade against those ships.
03:15At the same time, China also has close relations with the Gulf Arab states.
03:22And so China has a foot in both camps in this.
03:24And China really doesn't see any upside in this military conflict.
03:29And so it's trying to tow a very impartial line as far as that is possible in these circumstances.
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