00:02What we're not clear on is the extent to which the Iranians will be held back by what's happening
00:08in Lebanon.
00:09They have said the ceasefire talks are stalled if Lebanon's not included, but we don't know
00:16at this stage if that includes the actual long-term talks that are due to start on Saturday,
00:25as you say.
00:26There's a lot that can play out in this because events move very quickly over 24 hours in
00:35the Middle East and it's very hard to see how some sort of compromise can be made.
00:42The United States wants Iran to give up its enrichment programme entirely and Iran has
00:48said that its nuclear enrichment programme is its by right because it's subscribed to the
00:57international protocols related to that.
01:00It also wants Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to complete unhindered international passage.
01:09And Iran has said that passage through the Strait will still be subject to ships going
01:18through, liaising with its security authorities.
01:21And there's still the question of whether Iran might decide to put a toll on ships going
01:27through.
01:28That would be illegal under international law, but international law has been broken so much
01:33in the past three months that it's rather hard to see if that would be a barrier.
01:39Iran is a very formidable negotiator, a 2015 nuclear deal that President Obama was able to work
01:52out with five other countries in September of that year.
01:58It was very effective, but it took years of negotiations to get to that point.
02:05And the Iranians are very tough negotiators.
02:09They simply will not concede unless they are sure that they are going to get something that's
02:16valid and useful for them as a quid pro quo.
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