- 6 hours ago
A fragile 14-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran is under severe strain, with significant disagreement over whether Lebanon is included in the terms.
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00:01Good evening, big story coming in from West Asia.
00:04Israel has continued to pledge to continue to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:11And that's a big, big message that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sending out.
00:16Israel has pledged it will continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
00:20They've dismissed protests by Iran and demands by the international community to respect the fragile ceasefire that's in place.
00:27Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists there is no question of any ceasefire on action against the Hezbollah.
00:34U.S. Vice President Jerry Vance, he's clarified the American position.
00:39He too insists at no point was not striking Hezbollah in Lebanon a part of any ceasefire conversation.
00:47He insists perhaps there's some misunderstanding.
00:51Iran may not have been given the correct information or words to that effect.
00:55But this isn't the only issue that has Iran up in arms.
01:00The Strait of Hormuz, even as we speak, it remains shut with Iran threatening to boycott or stay away from
01:10peace talks in Islamabad.
01:11After repeated Israeli airstrikes and missile strikes in Lebanon in the past 24 hours,
01:16there are reports that say between 200 to 250 people have been killed,
01:21more than 1,000 wounded in the latest Israeli airstrikes and missile strikes deep inside Lebanon.
01:28In fact, these strikes have been at various locations including using a 900 kilogram bomb at a residential building complex,
01:37which Israel insists was the headquarters of the Hezbollah.
01:42Now, Iran's parliament speaker, he has warned that Lebanon is an indispensable and inseparable part of ceasefire talks
01:54and threatened a strong response.
01:56Washington, D.C. and Tehran are clearly not on the same page,
02:00not just on Lebanon issue but on multiple issues from Lebanon to the Strait of Hormuz,
02:04from Iran's nuclear program to Iran's missile program.
02:08We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with force, precision and determination.
02:13Words of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
02:16He took to social media platform X to say,
02:19our message is clear, anyone who acts against the people of Israel, Israeli civilians, we will strike them.
02:26We will continue to hit Hezbollah wherever necessary.
02:29In response, Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohamed Bagheir Galibaf,
02:34and many believe that Mohamed Bagheir Galibaf, the speaker, would be in Pakistan or could be in Pakistan
02:41for peace talks with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance,
02:45he took to social media platform X to say,
02:47Lebanon and the entire resistance axis as Iran's allies form an inseparable part of the ceasefire.
02:54ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and strong responses, unquote.
02:59Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabash Sharif, he's spoken to his Lebanese counterpart, Nawaf Salam.
03:06He strongly condemned Israel's ongoing aggression against Lebanon.
03:10He offered condolences over the loss of precious lives in Lebanon as a result of these hostilities.
03:18He went on to post on social media platform X,
03:21I reaffirmed Pakistan's commitment to advance peace efforts,
03:25including facilitating dialogue through the upcoming Iran-U.S. talks in Islamabad.
03:31Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, incidentally,
03:33has deleted a social media post saying that the Iranian delegation would arrive late Thursday.
03:39So now, there is some confusion if the Iranian delegation will go to Pakistan,
03:46reach that either later tonight, maybe early tomorrow, we still do not know.
03:50There is some confusion.
03:52And to ensure that Iran does not retaliate,
03:55Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabash Sharif, like we said,
03:57he's just spoken to his Lebanese counterpart, but he's not the only one.
04:01Europe is very upset with this fragile ceasefire on the verge of collapse.
04:06Israeli actions are putting the U.S.-Iran ceasefire under strain.
04:10The Iran truce should extend to Lebanon.
04:13European Union's top diplomat, Kaya Kallis, has said,
04:18in fact, she's very clear, Lebanon should be a part of the ceasefire.
04:22The Foreign Minister of France has condemned these strikes as unacceptable.
04:26His British counterpart has called for a ceasefire to include Lebanon.
04:29So, very clearly, Europe wants the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon.
04:34But both the U.S. and Israel insist the ceasefire at no point of time included
04:40ceasefire against targeting the Hezbollah.
04:42Iran has escalated.
04:44Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz.
04:46They haven't just closed the Strait of Hormuz.
04:48They've now indicated that a part of the Strait of Hormuz has been mined.
04:52So, there is a very narrow corridor that's available for ships to cross through.
04:56And that narrow corridor passes through the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz.
05:01But for any ship to cross that, they will have to take clearance from the security forces of Iran.
05:09So, right now, we are not even 48 hours into this 14-day ceasefire.
05:15And in less than 48 hours, it's fraying at the edges.
05:19The theatre of conflict has now shifted to Lebanon.
05:23Crucially, there is no consensus whether Beirut is even covered under this ceasefire.
05:29Here, key players, each of the key players, they're reading the script very differently.
05:34So, let's start with the United States of America.
05:36And once ceasefire, there appear to be three different versions.
05:41U.S. President Donald Trump, he's categorically said Lebanon is not part of this agreement with Iran.
05:48Not even in preliminary talks.
05:49Washington, D.C.'s position is clear.
05:52The Israel-Lebanon conflict is separate.
05:55That's a separate track altogether.
05:57A parallel skirmish that will have to be resolved on its own timeline
06:02and cannot be combined with the U.S.-Iran dialogue for the ceasefire to continue.
06:08But Iran sees this very differently.
06:11Tehran has issued a strong warning.
06:13Any continued targeting of Lebanon could jeopardize the entire ceasefire.
06:18For Iran, this isn't a limited ceasefire between U.S., Israel and Iran.
06:25It has to contain the entire region.
06:29Not even Iran's proxies or the axis of resistance can be targeted.
06:34So, not the Houthi forces, not Hamas, not Hezbollah.
06:38They're demanding a complete cessation of all hostilities across all fronts,
06:43making it clear Lebanon cannot be excluded.
06:47And this position has now been reinforced politically as well
06:50because the speaker, Bagheer Ghalibaf, has publicly asserted
06:54Lebanon is part of that ceasefire framework
06:56and warned there is no room of either a denial
06:59or no question whatsoever of backtracking on this.
07:03This is Iran's red line.
07:06Then comes Pakistan.
07:08But the big question is, can anyone trust Pakistan?
07:12Shaibaz Sharif has maintained Lebanon is included in the U.S.-Iran understanding.
07:18In fact, while announcing the agreement,
07:20he explicitly framed it as one that applies across the region,
07:25not just between Washington, D.C. and Tehran.
07:28But this is where the confusion deepens.
07:30There are growing indications that Islamabad may have communicated different versions of the deal
07:37to different sides at different times,
07:39raising serious questions about the credibility of a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror.
07:46Whether Iran is trying to play both sides,
07:49are they on the same page to begin with?
07:52Finally, let's talk about Israel.
07:54Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very clear.
07:57While Israel is backing this peace effort by the United States of America with Iran,
08:04Lebanon is outside the scope of the ceasefire.
08:06Jerusalem has continued, in fact, intensified operations in Lebanon,
08:11delivering one of the deadliest strikes on Beirut in recent times.
08:17100 targets taken down in just 10 minutes.
08:21And when I show you some of those images,
08:23they're truly horrifying.
08:24The manner in which air and land assault was mounted at various locations.
08:30Israel's objective remains unchanged.
08:34The complete decimation of the Hezbollah.
08:38And from Israel's perspective,
08:40that mission is not constrained by any potential ceasefire agreement on ground.
08:48Let's now shift focus to one country at the center of this confusion,
08:53and that is Pakistan,
08:56the global epicenter of radical Islamist terror.
09:01Shaibaz Sharif was quick to claim credit.
09:04He was chest-thumping on social media
09:06that Islamabad had successfully brokered a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
09:12Isn't that what India always said?
09:15Pakistan is a broker.
09:17A Dalal.
09:18But then be that as it may,
09:20this claim is now facing very serious scrutiny.
09:23Pakistan claiming it got US and Iran together.
09:28A report suggests that Pakistan perhaps played a double game to push through a deal.
09:33Now, according to a report in the Middle East,
09:36Islamabad allegedly conveyed different versions of the agreement to Washington DC and to Tehran,
09:41effectively shaping two separate understandings of the same ceasefire,
09:45they are just trying to get both the United States and Iran to find common middle ground.
09:51To the United States, Pakistan is believed to have presented a version
09:54where Lebanon was not a part of the deal,
09:57not specifically mentioned,
09:59keeping the scope limited to Iran.
10:01But to Iran,
10:03the message appears to have been different.
10:05Islamabad reportedly indicated,
10:08And we will get to those two different posts of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif.
10:13It's in the second post that Lebanon is actually mentioned by name,
10:17framing the ceasefire as a broader region-wide secession of hostilities.
10:23But the embarrassment for Pakistan does not stop just at that.
10:28Now there are details that are emerging that seem to indicate
10:32Pakistan may not be the mediator at all,
10:36but merely a conduit.
10:38There are reports that say United States used Islamabad as a back channel
10:44to communicate with Iran rather than engaging directly with Iran.
10:48Pakistan was the letterbox.
10:51Getting a message from the US, passing it to Iran.
10:54Getting a message from Iran, passing it to the US.
10:57It was actually China that was the heft that Iran wanted,
11:01a security guarantor.
11:03But let me come back to the main point of Pakistan.
11:07Pakistan's role appears to have been limited to being a messenger,
11:10delivering Washington DC's terms to Tehran
11:13rather than shaping the agreement itself.
11:16The logic from the American side was strategic.
11:18Washington DC believes Iran would be more receptive to a Muslim-majority country
11:25acting as an intermediary, making Pakistan more acceptable
11:28rather than a direct US outreach or an outreach to Turkey,
11:33which is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,
11:36or Egypt that signed the Abraham Accord.
11:39Pakistan, incidentally, has been used for decades as the messenger boy,
11:43whether it's to communicate with Iran or to communicate with China right from 1971.
11:50Remember Henry Kissinger's visit to China being facilitated through Pakistan.
11:54So Pakistan is their delivery boy and then they get paid for it,
11:58you know, in cash and in kind.
12:00There are also indications that White House is now closely involved
12:03in how the communication itself was framed and put out in public domain.
12:08So there's a report in the New York Times that suggests that Shabazz Sharif's post
12:12about the ceasefire was not his thinking or put together by diplomats in Pakistan.
12:20White House looked at it and White House actually signed off on it
12:24before it was made public.
12:26It was just dispatched to Pakistan and Pakistan was told to put it out in public domain.
12:31All of this points to a larger reality.
12:34Pakistan may have projected itself as a peacemaker,
12:38but in reality, Pakistan is just the letterbox or the messenger boy, the delivery boy.
12:46But just to deliver message and messages, Pakistan expects a Nobel Peace Prize.
12:53So now it's not just US President Donald Trump who believes he deserves a Nobel Prize.
12:58Now, Shabazz Sharif and Aasem Munir also want a Nobel Peace Prize.
13:04And now they're getting the Pakistani media to tom-tom this.
13:09That they deserve a Nobel Prize.
13:11Far from being dealmakers, they appear to have played this rather limited role.
13:16But here's where it gets really remarkable.
13:19There's an extraordinary campaign launched by Pakistan's media
13:24demanding the top owner, the Nobel Peace Prize for Aasem Munir.
13:29Sections of the Pakistani media and there are business groups in Pakistan
13:33that are now campaigning for a Nobel Peace Prize,
13:35crediting both Aasem Munir and Shabazz Sharif for brokering this peace deal.
13:42Their argument that it was Islamabad's intervention that helped halt
13:45one of the most dangerous escalations of the century for the world
13:49and deserves recognition at the highest level.
13:53Now, before we get to more on the story,
13:55let's for a moment pause and listen in to how from the sublime,
14:02it just gets ridiculous in a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror,
14:08which has the highest number of UN-designated terrorists on its soil.
14:13Listen in.
14:22Moment as we get that bite, but there's one disaster after the other.
14:28Adding to this growing embarrassment for Pakistan,
14:31there is a cricket league that's on in Pakistan
14:34and they too attempted to cash in on this political establishment credit for ceasefire
14:39and that's backfired and rather spectacularly.
14:43In a bid to showcase Pakistan's so-called role in brokering peace between US and Iran,
14:47a peace dove was released on field.
14:51Watch those images.
14:52Cricketer Babar Azam, he was a part of this gesture along with PSL chairman Salman Naseer.
15:00Watch this image.
15:01One dove.
15:02Pakistan clearly can't even afford more doves.
15:04This is just symbolism in Pakistan.
15:05But the timing couldn't have been worse because just as this dove was released,
15:11that's the time that those terrible airstrikes, that was the time they escalated.
15:18And the ceasefire itself is only already showing signs of being under strain.
15:23Social media across the world was quick to react.
15:26Netizens mocked this spectacle in Pakistan,
15:29pointing out the stark disconnect between optics that Pakistan is attempting to put out.
15:34and we'll put out those two windows for you.
15:36Pakistan attempting those peace doves and the ground reality being so very different.
15:43So Pakistan's symbolic gesture of a ceasefire is already beginning to unravel.
15:58And for this powerful symbol tonight, we will be releasing a beautiful white dove.
16:09Pakistan takes pride in playing its part in furthering world peace.
16:19So the ceasefire holds, but just about will it hold?
16:24And for how long?
16:26That remains the million dollar question.
16:28What should one make of Israel's continued airstrikes and missile strikes targeting Hezbollah?
16:35Was not targeting Lebanon a part of the ceasefire?
16:39Is there merit in U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance insisting that there may be some misunderstanding?
16:46Iran may have been misled or perhaps got the wrong impression that Lebanon was part of the peace agreement?
16:55Because according to the Washington establishment, it wasn't.
16:59And then that big question, is Pakistan playing a double game and not being an honest broker?
17:04Joining me on India first is Professor Sierra Clare, Foreign Policy Analyst.
17:10She joins us from, Professor Clare joins us from California.
17:14Roxana Chagini is an Iranian cultural analyst and advocate for democratic transition.
17:19Joins us from Germany.
17:21Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
17:24Also with me is Senior Journalist and author Sandeep Unitan.
17:28Professor Clare, there are conflicting reports coming in from the United States.
17:33Vice President J.D. Vance insists the U.S. ceasefire plan never included Lebanon.
17:38There may be some misunderstanding in Iran.
17:41Is there an impression that this misunderstanding may have been created by Pakistan?
17:48Well, I think that what I'm hearing from the White House is that Iran has created a lot of these
17:55misunderstandings
17:56by releasing a document that was an old 10-point plan that had already previously been rejected.
18:05So we haven't actually seen the 10-point plan that Iran and the United States are dealing with right now.
18:11That being said, you know, Pakistan, we've also heard that they sent different versions of the plans to each
18:21people as these messages have been passed back and forth.
18:25So there certainly could have been some mistranslations.
18:28There are messages that have to go through, you know, three, four, five people or more.
18:35And so there certainly could have been a possibility that something got changed around.
18:40Okay, so you think it's a game of Chinese whispers or Pakistan sent different drafts to different people
18:46or different drafts were sent at different times and not a final version.
18:49Where do you think was this message lost, Professor Clare?
18:55Well, it's hard to say without, you know, being, you know, knowing what's actually going on in the room.
19:03But I think that the misunderstanding or the confusion over the Lebanon ceasefire could stem from two things.
19:13Number one, as I said, the message being passed through so many people, including Pakistan,
19:18and maybe some mistranslations, maybe some miscommunications there,
19:22or the Iranians who are trying to use the media to put out something that they want to have happen.
19:32And so this is what we've seen them do, you know, throughout the conflict is basically put out things that
19:38just are not true at all.
19:40And they are trying to basically speak it into existence.
19:44So I think both things are possible.
19:46And I think that Pakistan could play a role in both things.
19:51Okay, let me bring in Sushant Sareen because few people watch Pakistan as closely as Sushant does.
19:58Sushant Sareen, the draft message put out by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif gives the impression
20:03that the draft came from elsewhere.
20:06But a subsequent message posted by Shahbaz Sharif says, and I quote,
20:10Pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies,
20:16have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon, effective immediately.
20:24Has Pakistan played a double game here, sir?
20:28Look, I wouldn't be surprised if they have.
20:30You know, anybody who has done a property deal in Delhi, for example, or I suppose even in Lahore,
20:36it's not going to be any different.
20:38When you are getting two sides to meet and one side, and in this case, the United States seems to
20:44be extremely desperate for a deal.
20:47Because that is the, if you read the Financial Times report, it's very clear that for weeks,
20:52they've been telling the Pakistanis to get the Iranians to agree to some kind of a ceasefire.
20:59And clearly, you know, despite Donald Trump's genocidal threats, the Iranians were not balking.
21:06So quite clearly, the Americans are very desperate.
21:09And when you have this kind of a situation, you know, what you try and do is that,
21:14OK, let me exchange different messages with different people, promise both the sides separate things.
21:21At least that will stop the fighting and get them both on a table.
21:25And then, you know, maybe things will move on from there.
21:28Perhaps that could have been what was attempted by the Pakistanis, because it's very clear,
21:33unless the Americans simply do not read anymore or they cannot comprehend what is being written,
21:40that it was very clear that, you know, Shabazz Sharif has written that Levinas is included.
21:46But when you read Donald Trump's post on Truth Social, he doesn't mention anything about Lebanon.
21:55He talks about an immediate ceasefire and he talks about, he talks about the Strait of Hormuz,
22:02which again, is not exactly the case, because the Iranians have not,
22:07these Iranians are saying we have opened the strait, but there, you know, you will have to come through us,
22:13because there are some technical difficulties, so you have to come through us.
22:16So, it's not open. It's under their control.
22:19They are not giving up control and they are not going to give up control.
22:22And there is damn all that the Americans can do about it.
22:25So, you know, that is what we are at.
22:28It's a very dangerous situation.
22:29We don't know if these talks are going to work.
22:32We don't know whether this ceasefire will even last the two weeks that, you know,
22:36people have been talking about.
22:37As we speak, there are reports of a massive build-up of American forces in the region,
22:43which means that there is an apprehension that there could actually be a ground attack
22:47either on one of the islands or some parts of the mainland Iran.
22:52We don't know.
22:53So, let's wait and see.
22:54Keep fingers crossed.
22:56Oh, absolutely.
22:57And Sandeep Unnithan has some details on the build-up that's taking place right now.
23:00But before I come to Sandeep,
23:02Roxana Chigini joins us from Germany.
23:04And, Roxana, this initial message posted by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif,
23:09it does not mention Lebanon by name.
23:11And that's why we put out both the messages.
23:14In your view, is this a deliberate misunderstanding created by Pakistan?
23:18Or this is a game of the Chinese whispers,
23:21it's lost in translation since it's that Pakistani English or Urdu that's happening
23:26and Persian Farsi with Iran and American English with the Americans.
23:32So, somewhere down the line, the message goes, it's lost in translation.
23:35I think this misunderstanding is well chosen by Iranian government.
23:41They are absolutely the master to create misunderstanding,
23:45absolutely the master of playing with the words.
23:48And they have done it for 47 years.
23:50They have done it deliberately.
23:52And maybe Lebanon was not involved in this agreement at all from the beginning.
23:58And then suddenly they did it, obviously, suddenly they come and say,
24:03oh, what about Lebanon because we have Hezbollah there?
24:05That should be in the deep.
24:07But, by the way, the ceasefire war not actual from the beginning.
24:13Iranians started bombing UAE the next day.
24:17And it's just a confusion.
24:19It's just a big, big circus, political circus.
24:22I think, you know, Qatar tried to be the middle person.
24:25Now, Pakistan tried to play a political role in this situation and gain some attraction,
24:32gain closeness to Iran.
24:34That's what I believe.
24:34I think the conversation and the agreement and the meeting should be between two countries.
24:41As long as we have a third country with a totally different culture and different language,
24:48Iran used this situation and come with a misunderstanding and come with wanting something else.
24:54And this is by Iran.
24:58That's what I believe.
25:00That's very interesting.
25:01You should mention that a conversation is between two countries.
25:06What is a third country with a very different culture doing this?
25:09Sandeep, I want to quote the initial message of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif
25:13so that there's no confusion.
25:14He says, and I quote,
25:16diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East
25:20are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully
25:23with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future
25:27to allow diplomacy to run its course.
25:29I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks.
25:33Pakistan, in all sincerity,
25:36requests the Iranian brothers to open the Strait of Hormuz
25:39for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture.
25:42We also urge all warring parties to observe ceasefire everywhere
25:48for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war
25:54in the interest of long-term peace and stability.
25:56There is no specific mention of Lebanon in the initial post
26:01as there was in the second post of Shahbaz Sharif.
26:05He seems to have quietly inserted Lebanon in his second post, Sandeep.
26:10Yeah, absolutely, Gaurav.
26:11And, you know, you have to see who the puppet master behind these tweets are.
26:17And there's a lot of speculation that it is possibly the United States
26:20who was, you know, putting out those draft tweets, sending it to him.
26:23And, of course, they, you know, pasted an original copy.
26:27The draft tweet was pasted as though it was the final tweet.
26:30And that led to speculation as to where, who was writing these tweets
26:35and, you know, passing it on to them.
26:36So that's very clear that it is possibly the United States.
26:39Because as Sushant was mentioning,
26:41that there's a lot of enormous pressure on the United States for a ceasefire.
26:47Because, you know, as we've been discussing, Gaurav,
26:49there are huge, huge deadlines in front of Trump.
26:53He's got things to do this year.
26:55He has that meeting with Xi Jinping on the 14th and 15th of May in Beijing.
26:59That's going to be a huge one.
27:01After that, you have the 4th of July celebrations,
27:04250th anniversary of the United States.
27:06And after that, of course, is the most crucial one for Trump,
27:10the politician, which are the U.S. midterms in November.
27:12So he is looking at these three very big events
27:15and he cannot be seen as stuck in the Strait of Hormuz,
27:19unable to get a country whose air force he has destroyed,
27:23whose navy he has destroyed.
27:24But somehow the most powerful country in the world
27:27can't get that defeated country, in his words,
27:31to open the Strait of Hormuz.
27:32So Pakistan playing a double game, Gaurav, you said it.
27:36You can't trust Pakistan with this.
27:39Something as sensitive as this.
27:41And these talks, Gaurav, I mean,
27:42for the kind of forces that are being moved into theatre,
27:45you have the U.S.'s boxer that is headed there.
27:48It hasn't taken a U-turn and gone back to the United States.
27:51You have one carrier strike group heading from the Atlantic
27:54towards the region.
27:56That hasn't taken a U-turn either.
27:58The U.S. is steadily building up forces.
28:00And as Trump just said in his true social post,
28:03they're locked and ready to move in.
28:04So these talks, for all practical purposes, Gaurav,
28:08these are among the most fragile talks possibly of this century.
28:13It's like negotiating sitting in a minefield.
28:16Anything could go wrong, one explosion,
28:18and there will be a series of, you know,
28:21cascading explosions, and that will be the end of these talks.
28:24That's how fragile the situation really is, Gaurav.
28:27It indeed is.
28:28And Professor Claire, the New York Times claims
28:29that White House knew of Shahbaz Sharif's post
28:32even before it was put out in public domain.
28:35In fact, they've gone to the extent of arguing
28:37that White House was directly involved in shaping the message.
28:41If that is true, would that indicate
28:44White House furiously backpedaled on the ceasefire
28:48on the Lebanon front with Israel continuing to strike Hezbollah?
28:52That initially perhaps they were okay with it
28:54or they didn't wargame it.
28:55When Israel continued to strike,
28:57there was furious backpedaling by the United States?
29:01Well, I've heard from the White House
29:04and the administration that Lebanon was never
29:08in part of the deal, and that's just not something
29:11that they were ever willing to discuss.
29:13So I don't know that there was backpedaling.
29:15As you said, there was that post that, you know,
29:20it seemed like the White House had been involved
29:22in shaping some of the messaging.
29:25And that's a very interesting case.
29:28You know, the White House and President Trump specifically
29:31have been building up kind of a relationship
29:34with Pakistan over the past year.
29:37And so it is possible, you know,
29:39that they were sending a message
29:41or sending instructions about the first tweet that you showed.
29:48And then there was that second post that was underneath it.
29:51You know, maybe that was added on.
29:54So I do think, you know, the White House is very...
29:57They have an extensive communications team
29:59that's very concerned with messaging,
30:03even, you know, with our partners.
30:05Okay, Sushant Sareen, the same report,
30:07would it not prove that Pakistan is just a messenger boy,
30:11a broker and not a party in these peace talks?
30:14I mean, they're just doing what India's external affairs minister,
30:17Dr. S. Jai Shankar, said a couple of days back.
30:20They're just Dalals.
30:22Of course, I think that's a no-brainer, Gaurav.
30:25They are brokers in this.
30:27They're not a party.
30:28They're not probably...
30:29They probably are the event managers,
30:31you know, the marriage hall providers.
30:34But they're not going to be part of the confabulations
30:39that will happen out there.
30:40I'm not sure if they'll be in the room or even on the table.
30:43So one is that.
30:45But look, as far as these tweets are concerned,
30:47when the first tweet goes out,
30:48it does not mention Lebanon.
30:49I would suspect that the Iranians who have been insisting that,
30:54you know, the ceasefire has to extend all across the region,
30:58would have said,
31:00why haven't you mentioned Lebanon?
31:01Because that is where the Israeli attacks are taking place.
31:06So the Pakistanis, to save the talks,
31:08would have sent a second tweet, right?
31:10Mentioning Lebanon.
31:11The Americans would have probably ignored it.
31:14Assuming that the Americans are saying the right thing
31:16and you can't say that about America anymore,
31:18given the kind of stuff which is happening in the White House.
31:22So let us, for a moment,
31:23imagine that the Americans would have let it pass.
31:25Now, look at the sequence of events.
31:29Initially, J.D. Vance says that Lebanon was not part of the deal.
31:33There has been a misunderstanding.
31:35And then, when the Iranians continue to insist on it,
31:38and this tells you about the sheer desperation of the United States
31:43to get some kind of a seesawyer,
31:45so that they can cut and run from this place,
31:48do have them leaning on the Israelis
31:51to agree for not bombarding Lebanon for another two weeks.
31:57What does that tell you?
31:59That the Iranians insisted on this particular thing.
32:03The Americans have count out to the Iranians.
32:06The Pakistanis were doing that double game
32:08that let us, let them all come out here,
32:11let them sit across a table,
32:12and once that happens,
32:14maybe things will move in the right direction.
32:16So they have played that broker game,
32:18which is so familiar to all of us in Delhi, NCR, right?
32:22But whether this thing will finally go ahead,
32:25given the kind of divergent positions
32:27and the kind of maximalist demands
32:30that the Iranians are making,
32:32perhaps it's an overreach on the Iranian side,
32:34but they think that they are on the winning side.
32:38Despite all the damage and destruction
32:40done by the United States,
32:42the U.S. has not achieved anything at all,
32:45and Iran is now top dog in the region.
32:48It is the regional hegemon,
32:50whether anybody likes it or not.
32:52It's top dog in the region, Raksana Chikini,
32:54and do these developments indicate
32:56that the U.S. does not have the stomach
32:58to take Operation Epic Fury
33:00to its logical conclusion?
33:01There is no regime change,
33:03and a wounded regime in power
33:05perhaps is even more hardline,
33:07more dangerous,
33:08and that is why
33:09they've now closed the Strait of Hormuz
33:12to send across this message.
33:13Not even the number one power in the world
33:16can make us open it.
33:18Yeah, about the Strait of Hormuz,
33:21actually it should be
33:22an international navigation platform
33:26for all the countries in the world,
33:29and this is really a very bad policy
33:31and not acceptable
33:33that Iran wants to decide about it.
33:35Iran has a plan.
33:37Iran wants to stop Israel.
33:39Iran wants to stop U.S.
33:41Iran wants to be the weaker winner,
33:44and they are always using the excuses.
33:47They are also creating the confusion.
33:49They are the master of it.
33:51They want to have a break.
33:53But the fight with this regime
33:55is not only the fight of U.S.A.
33:57and Israel with this regime.
33:5947-year Iranians are fighting
34:01against this regime.
34:03They are bullying the whole world.
34:04I don't want to think one minute
34:07that U.S.A. will want to stop it.
34:11I hope that they don't want to stop it.
34:13I hope they continue with the plan
34:14that they started.
34:16I hope Israel continue with the plan
34:18and they destroy every power
34:21that they have in this regime.
34:23And then we will be ready
34:24for the regime change.
34:25Regime hasn't changed.
34:27The winning is not just a statement.
34:29Peace is just not a statement.
34:31The fact is that people,
34:33people, real people,
34:34are on the fire.
34:35And this should be changed
34:37and this should be continued
34:38until the regime is absolutely,
34:41then the whole world,
34:42the Lebanon will have peace.
34:43Nobody has Hezbollah in Lebanon.
34:46There will be the peace
34:47between Pakistan, India,
34:49U.S.A., Australia.
34:51And I hope that...
34:53India will ensure there's peace with Pakistan
34:55because there's nothing
34:56that speaks the language of peace
34:58better than the BrahMos
35:00supersonic cruise missile.
35:02That's clear, Sandeep.
35:04And this...
35:05But for the moment,
35:05we will talk about Israel,
35:07we'll talk about Iran,
35:08and we'll talk about
35:09the United States of America.
35:10because Pakistan understands
35:12one language,
35:13and that is BrahMos ki Bhasha
35:14when it comes to India-Pakistan.
35:16But, Sandeep,
35:17the quest for freedom in Iran
35:19has that failed.
35:21The regime is wounded,
35:23battered,
35:23but it is intact.
35:25It exercises total control
35:27over the country
35:28and the Strait of Hormuz.
35:30Is the U.S. today
35:32worse off
35:33than where the situation was
35:36on the 27th of February
35:38before the bombing started
35:39on the 28th?
35:41Well, without a doubt, Gaurav,
35:43you know,
35:43you had...
35:44You saw the beginning of the year,
35:46there were widespread protests
35:47in Iran.
35:48That's when President Trump
35:49asked the Iranians
35:50to basically rise up
35:52against their government.
35:53And when they did,
35:55the protests were brutally crushed.
35:57The U.S. was nowhere in sight.
36:00February,
36:01the United States appears.
36:02They conduct a 40-day bombing campaign
36:04where thousands of people have died.
36:06They've been wounded.
36:07A lot of civilians have died.
36:09Now, that is going to turn people
36:10against, you know,
36:12an aerial bombing campaign.
36:13We have seen that through history,
36:15that aerial bombing,
36:16you know, never...
36:18Despite whatever
36:19President Trump has been saying,
36:21there is going to be no Iranian
36:23who would want their country
36:24to be bombed the way it has been.
36:26And that is going to be
36:28counterproductive for the United States
36:29because that popular upsurge,
36:32that popular awakening,
36:33which they hoped would happen,
36:35a 1979 kind of moment
36:37where the people of Iran
36:38rose in revolt
36:39and the Shah had to flee,
36:40that is clearly not happening.
36:42Not now and
36:43not in the near foreseeable future
36:45either, Gaurav.
36:46So, these are...
36:47So, let me quickly bring in
36:49Professor Klaire
36:50to understand
36:51what should one expect
36:53from the peace talks
36:55given that there is no middle ground,
36:57you know,
36:58whether it's on the Strait of Hormuz,
36:59whether it's on the issue of Lebanon,
37:01whether it's on enriched uranium
37:03or the missiles that Iran
37:05wants to continue to make
37:06and launch.
37:08There are four or five critical issues
37:10on which there is no meeting ground.
37:12What are your expectations
37:13from the peace talks
37:14should they happen in Islamabad?
37:18Well, first of all,
37:19I just want to say,
37:20you know,
37:21we have CENTCOM commander
37:22Bradley Cooper
37:23who just put out a statement
37:24this morning, I think,
37:26who said
37:26that all of America's objectives
37:28in this operation
37:30were achieved.
37:31So, I don't think
37:32there's any capitulation
37:33from the American side.
37:35We maintain
37:35quite a bit of leverage
37:37over Iran still
37:38and if the peace talks
37:39don't go the way we want,
37:41you know,
37:42we can still continue
37:44with what we need to do
37:45in Iran,
37:46especially with regard
37:47to the enriched uranium.
37:50In terms of what,
37:51you know,
37:52what to look for
37:52in these peace talks,
37:54I do think
37:55they're going to happen.
37:56I think that,
37:57you know,
37:58we need to see
37:59if Iran is going
38:00to take this seriously.
38:01Are the people
38:01who are in charge
38:02in Iran right now
38:05going to have
38:06a behavior change
38:07where they're not going
38:08to act like they were
38:09in the first round
38:11of peace talks.
38:12Thankfully,
38:12all those leaders
38:13have been eliminated
38:14so we're dealing
38:15with a new set of people
38:16and we need to see
38:17But that's not actually true.
38:19You know,
38:19permit me,
38:21whatever,
38:21you know,
38:22Admiral Cooper
38:22may be claiming,
38:2440 days of bombing,
38:26the regime remains in power,
38:28the son has replaced
38:29the father,
38:30the president of the country
38:31remains the same,
38:33the foreign minister
38:34of the country
38:34remains the same,
38:35the speaker of parliament
38:36remained the same,
38:37the foreign minister
38:38who was leading talks
38:39in 2025,
38:41he was leading the talks
38:42in February 2026
38:43and he's leading the talks
38:45along with,
38:46of course,
38:46the speaker
38:47Mohammed Bagheer Ghalibaf
38:48when they meet,
38:49if they meet in Islamabad
38:51day after tomorrow.
38:51So I don't really see
38:53what has changed.
38:54The ideology
38:54and the regime
38:55remain intact.
38:56The Strait of Hormuz
38:57remains closed
38:58despite the world's
38:59most powerful navy,
39:0011 aircraft carrier
39:01battle groups,
39:02all those nuclear-powered
39:03submarines and ships.
39:05The Strait of Hormuz
39:06remains shut, madam.
39:08Well, the United States
39:10has the capability
39:12to open the Strait.
39:14It would take,
39:15it would take
39:16a large commitment,
39:17more, more troops,
39:19more forces,
39:20possibly more casualties.
39:22So those are
39:23the considerations
39:24that the American side
39:26weighs.
39:27But it's just
39:28not our Strait.
39:29It's not something
39:29that we use.
39:30It's not very strategically
39:31important to us.
39:33So that's why
39:33we've been having
39:34conversations with
39:35our partners,
39:37our NATO allies,
39:38who have surprisingly
39:40shown very little interest.
39:42But there's also
39:43other partners.
39:44There's Gulf partners
39:45who use the Strait.
39:47So all of those things
39:48are still left
39:50to be decided.
39:51But that's part
39:52of the reason
39:53why the United States
39:53hasn't just gone
39:55full on
39:56to open the Strait
39:59unilaterally.
39:59We're having conversations.
40:01We're bringing
40:01other people
40:02in on that.
40:03And with the talks,
40:04I think the,
40:05as I said,
40:05you know,
40:06I think the,
40:06if the Iranian side
40:08takes them seriously,
40:10President Trump
40:10and his team
40:11are willing to,
40:13you know,
40:14negotiate.
40:14They're willing to
40:16try to,
40:17try to work
40:18something out.
40:18But if the Iranian
40:19regime just treats
40:20this like a delay
40:21tactic,
40:22if they disrespect
40:23the negotiations,
40:24that will be the thing
40:25that makes it fail.
40:27Okay.
40:27The,
40:27the last 30 seconds
40:29that I have on
40:29this part of the show,
40:31Sushant Sareen,
40:32a section in the media
40:33in Pakistan
40:33believe both
40:35Aasem Munir
40:36and Shahbaz Sharif
40:38should be awarded
40:39the Nobel Peace Prize.
40:41Your take on it.
40:44Yeah,
40:45from a time
40:45when they were all
40:46jumping up and down
40:47to give a Nobel Peace Prize
40:49to Donald Trump
40:50to now when they are saying
40:51that the Nobel Peace Prize
40:53should be given
40:54to Shahbaz
40:54and that failed marshal.
40:57The point is that
40:58they are pitting them
40:59directly against
40:59Donald Trump.
41:00So good,
41:01good luck on that.
41:03Donald Trump
41:03might feel cheated.
41:04Secondly,
41:05what if this
41:06peace moves
41:07don't last?
41:08If they don't survive?
41:10If this entire
41:11so-called peace process
41:12collapses?
41:13There's a lot of
41:14slip between the cup
41:15and the lip
41:15on this.
41:16And despite
41:17American claims
41:18that they've achieved
41:19all their objectives,
41:20there's not a single
41:21objective they've achieved
41:22apart from killing
41:23Ali Khamenei.
41:25What have they achieved?
41:26They've bombed
41:27the Iranian military
41:28and the Navy
41:28and everything.
41:29But the Iranians,
41:31you ask anybody
41:32who's unbiased
41:33and they'll tell you
41:35that the Iranians
41:36have emerged
41:37as the clear victors.
41:38It's been a strategically
41:41resounding victory
41:42for Iran
41:42because they have now
41:44established their dominance
41:45and they are dictating
41:46terms to the United States.
41:48Just now,
41:49the Iranians are tweeting
41:50that we have told
41:52the Americans
41:53that if they cannot stop
41:54Israel from bombing
41:55Lebanon,
41:56the talks are off.
41:56And the Americans
41:57have ensured
41:58that this will happen.
42:00Just now,
42:01they are tweeting this.
42:02So quite clearly,
42:03they are dictating
42:04the terms.
42:05The Americans
42:05have themselves
42:06said that
42:07the 10-point program
42:09that the Iranians
42:10have given us,
42:10although there's
42:11some controversy
42:11on what those
42:1210 points are,
42:13is the workable
42:14basis on which
42:15negotiations will take place.
42:16So the negotiations
42:17are not taking place
42:18on the American wish list.
42:20The negotiations
42:21are taking place
42:22on the Iranian wish list.
42:23And yet,
42:25if you think
42:25that America
42:26has achieved
42:28all its objectives,
42:29then please tell me
42:30what those objectives
42:31were.
42:32Because if America's
42:33main objective,
42:34and of course,
42:35we'll have a separate
42:36debate on that,
42:37if America's main
42:37objective was to
42:39ensure that Iran's
42:40unable to project
42:41power beyond its
42:41borders,
42:42Iran's actually
42:43projecting power
42:44way beyond its
42:46borders,
42:46not just at the
42:47Strait of Hormuz,
42:48but also at
42:48Bab al-Mandab,
42:49and is trying to
42:50ensure that Lebanon,
42:52the Hezbollah,
42:53is not targeted
42:54in Lebanon.
42:55Now, if America
42:57buckles on this
42:59issue,
42:59we'll know in the
43:00next 24 hours,
43:01and then we'll know
43:02whether America
43:03has met any of its
43:04objectives,
43:05or whether Iran
43:06continues to call
43:07the shots.
43:08I want to thank
43:08all my guests.
43:10The situation on
43:11ground zero,
43:12many thanks for
43:13joining me,
43:14the situation on
43:14ground zero right
43:15now in Lebanon,
43:17it's terrible.
43:19Between 200 to
43:20250 people have
43:21been killed.
43:22there was a
43:23900 kilogram
43:24bomb that was
43:24used to target
43:25the base of a
43:26building,
43:27and the entire
43:28multi-story building
43:29just collapsed.
43:29We'll show you
43:30those images.
43:31But the situation
43:32even in the
43:32northern part of
43:33Israel,
43:34bordering the
43:35southern part of
43:36Lebanon,
43:36it's a terrible
43:37day.
43:38My colleague
43:39Praneo Padhi,
43:39he risked his
43:40life to get us
43:42this report.
43:46India today is
43:47at a forward
43:48location in
43:48northern Israel,
43:49and in fact,
43:50behind me you
43:50can see the
43:51border fencing
43:52dividing the
43:52territory of
43:53Israel and
43:54Lebanon.
43:55And this is the
43:56area where the
43:56ceasefire never
43:58happened,
43:58never its
43:59impact or impact
44:00is felt.
44:01And in fact,
44:02you can see the
44:02signs of the
44:03rocket fire here.
44:04In fact,
44:05there is a hole,
44:06there is a crater
44:06on this road,
44:07and this tarmac,
44:08this concrete
44:09is you can see
44:10the impact of
44:11this rocket fire
44:12and this remains
44:13a reality of
44:14this area where
44:15in last one hour
44:16there have been
44:17four alerts
44:18sounded in this
44:18area and in fact
44:19this part of
44:20northern Israel
44:20where the response
44:21time,
44:22where people to
44:22go to shelter
44:23they get only
44:24few seconds
44:25to save their
44:27lives and in
44:27fact,
44:28therefore,
44:28you can see
44:28concrete structures
44:29around everywhere
44:31even in these
44:31forward areas
44:32so that people
44:33can rush to
44:33these concrete
44:34structures and
44:34save their
44:35lives.
44:35These rockets
44:36might be small
44:37rockets,
44:38but they
44:39are very
44:39lethal and
44:40in fact,
44:41that is the
44:41reason why
44:42Israel Defense
44:43Forces are
44:43carrying out
44:44these operations
44:45against Hezbollah
44:46and they see
44:47this area,
44:48in fact,
44:49the operation,
44:50the objective
44:50to safeguard
44:51the lives in
44:52this northern
44:52part of Israel
44:53because behind
44:54me you can
44:54see these
44:55settlements,
44:55these beautiful
44:56houses of
44:57this northern
44:57part of Israel.
44:58This is the
44:58northernmost
44:59settlement of
45:00Israel's border
45:01with Lebanon
45:02and you can
45:02see these
45:03houses,
45:03they are
45:04abundant right
45:05now.
45:05Whether the
45:06ceasefire will
45:07last or not,
45:08this remains a
45:09question and
45:10that will be
45:10largely decided
45:11by this area
45:12behind me.
45:13You can see
45:14those houses
45:15which are the
45:16symbols of
45:17this conflict.
45:18You can see
45:18those houses
45:19which are
45:19destroyed.
45:20Those are on
45:20these hill,
45:21hilly area,
45:22those heights
45:22and in fact,
45:23they are on
45:24the territory
45:24of Lebanon
45:25and this
45:26remains a
45:26reality that
45:27all those
45:28Lebanese
45:29settlements
45:30on the
45:31other side
45:32of the hill.
45:42and this
45:43is the
45:43reality of
45:44this area
45:45with every
45:46passing second
45:46you live in
45:47this threat
45:48in this
45:49reality that
45:50rockets are
45:50constantly being
45:51fired.
45:52Israel Defense
45:52Forces are
45:53pounding that
45:54area.
45:55You can see
45:55the sirens
45:57sounding,
45:58you can hear
45:58the blaring
45:59of sirens
45:59and in fact,
46:00you can also
46:01feel the
46:02thundering noise
46:03of those
46:03artillery fire
46:04and those
46:05tanks pounding
46:07and rolling
46:07towards the
46:08territory of
46:09Lebanon.
46:09This is
46:10Pranay Padi
46:10reporting from
46:12the forward
46:12locations of
46:13northern Israel
46:13for India
46:14Today.
46:17Given the
46:18way America's
46:19allies are
46:20being pounded
46:21in the
46:22Gulf region,
46:23is Taiwan
46:24quietly sending
46:26out feelers
46:27to China?
46:28Taiwan's
46:28opposition
46:29leader,
46:30she's invoked
46:31the spirit
46:31of the
46:32party's
46:32founder,
46:33Dr.
46:33Sun Yat-sen
46:34and sought
46:35reconciliation
46:35with China.
46:36She arrived
46:37in Beijing,
46:38is likely to
46:38stay there
46:39for a couple
46:39of days and
46:40perhaps even
46:40meet Xi
46:41Jinping.
46:42What's the
46:42signal there?
46:43Taiwan's
46:44opposition
46:44leader,
46:45Cheng Li
46:45won't invoke
46:46the spirit
46:47of the
46:47party's
46:48founder,
46:48Dr.
46:49Sun Yat-sen
46:50and sought
46:50reconciliation
46:51with China.
46:52She arrived
46:53in Beijing.
46:54A Taiwan
46:55opposition
46:56leader arriving
46:57in Beijing
46:57is making
46:58headlines.
46:59Cheng is
47:00the
47:00chairperson
47:00of the
47:01Kuomintang
47:01or the
47:01KMT,
47:02Taiwan's
47:03largest
47:03opposition
47:04party.
47:04And she
47:05will be
47:05in China
47:05until Sunday.
47:06At a time
47:07of increased
47:08Chinese military
47:09pressure on
47:10Taiwan,
47:11China has
47:11repeatedly
47:12violated
47:13violated the
47:13air defense
47:14identification
47:15zone of
47:17Taiwan.
47:17They've
47:17carried out
47:18very aggressive
47:19military
47:19exercises.
47:20Chinese
47:21President
47:21Xi Jinping
47:22has repeatedly
47:23called for
47:23peaceful
47:24reunification
47:25with Taiwan,
47:26but many
47:27analysts argue
47:28if it's not
47:28peaceful,
47:29the reunification
47:30may still
47:31happen and
47:32the timeline
47:33is being
47:33brought forward
47:34from 2047
47:35to maybe
47:362027,
47:372028.
47:38Now these
47:38are some
47:38reports that
47:39are doing
47:39the rounds
47:40in the
47:41region.
47:41Now Cheng
47:42is on her
47:43first visit
47:43to China.
47:44She's likely
47:45to meet
47:45Chinese
47:46President
47:46Xi Jinping.
47:47Look at
47:48those images.
47:48She laid
47:48a wreath
47:49at Dr.
47:49Sun Yat-sen's
47:51mausoleum
47:51in the
47:52eastern city
47:52of Nanjing,
47:53which is also
47:54the capital
47:54of the KMT-led
47:56republic of the
47:56Chinese government
47:57before it fled
47:58to Taiwan
47:58in 1949,
48:00having lost
48:01the civil war
48:02to Mao Zedong's
48:04communist forces.
48:05She said,
48:06and I quote,
48:06the core
48:07values of
48:08Dr.
48:08Sun Yat-sen's
48:09ideals that
48:10all under
48:11heaven are
48:11equal have
48:13always been
48:13equality,
48:14inclusiveness
48:15and unity.
48:16In footage
48:17carried live
48:18on Taiwanese
48:19television channels,
48:21she went on
48:21to say that
48:22we should work
48:22together to
48:23promote
48:23reconciliation
48:24and unity
48:25across the
48:26Taiwan Straits
48:27and create
48:27regional prosperity
48:28and peace.
48:30Now Taiwan
48:31has repeatedly
48:31resisted
48:32China's efforts
48:33at forcible
48:35reunification.
48:36in the past
48:37US had this
48:38policy of
48:39strategic ambiguity
48:40about protecting
48:42Taiwan.
48:42But given
48:43these recent
48:43developments
48:44in West Asia,
48:45there are
48:45multiple questions
48:46that are being
48:47raised about
48:47China's intentions
48:49and the
48:50commitment of
48:51the United
48:52States of
48:52America.
48:53Peace has
48:54never come
48:54from the
48:55charity of
48:55dictators.
48:56It must
48:57be safeguarded
48:58by Taiwan's
48:59own strength.
49:00And that's
49:00the spokesperson
49:01of Taiwan
49:02government
49:03in a
49:03statement.
49:04But all
49:04the voices
49:05that are
49:05coming in
49:06and this
49:06is again
49:07one region
49:08where we
49:09must focus
49:09because the
49:10United States
49:10initially remained
49:11focused on
49:12Ukraine,
49:13then on
49:14West Asia.
49:14is there
49:15something brewing
49:16in the
49:18East?
49:19Listen in.
49:21Taiwan.
49:24Li Wen sincerely
49:25hopes that
49:26if possible,
49:27the gift
49:27she brings
49:28to all her
49:29relatives and
49:29friends in
49:30Taiwan is
49:30peace because
49:31peace can
49:32make everything
49:33possible and
49:34can make
49:34everything people
49:35hope to see
49:36happen come
49:37to fruition.
49:45The Chinese
49:46Nationalist Party
49:47successfully built
49:48Taiwan,
49:49Pengu,
49:50Kimmen and
49:51Matsu into
49:52a fine society
49:53marked by
49:53democracy,
49:54freedom,
49:55the rule of
49:55law and
49:56shared prosperity.
49:57Likewise,
49:58on the mainland,
49:58we have also
49:59seen and
50:00borne witness
50:01to progress
50:01and development
50:02that have
50:03exceeded
50:03everyone's
50:04expectations
50:05and imagination.
50:12And India
50:13today's
50:13foreign affairs
50:14editor Geeta
50:14Mohan now
50:14joins us
50:15for more
50:16on the story.
50:16Geeta,
50:17does
50:18Chengli
50:18Wun's
50:19visit and
50:20her outreach,
50:21does it
50:22mark just
50:22a tactical
50:23political move
50:24or a deeper
50:25shift in
50:26Taiwan's
50:26opposition
50:27strategy towards
50:28engagement with
50:29Beijing?
50:29Both you and
50:30I were
50:30reporting from
50:31Taiwan at
50:32the height of
50:33COVID when
50:34there was an
50:34apprehension that
50:35China may
50:36forcibly try and
50:37take over and
50:37there were military
50:38maneuvers that
50:39were happening.
50:39What's the
50:40situation right
50:41now,
50:41Geeta?
50:41Well,
50:42what we're
50:43looking at is
50:44not a major
50:44shift.
50:45It is a
50:45movement that
50:46we've seen
50:47very slowly
50:47and steadily
50:48Sogorev,
50:49especially when
50:50it comes to
50:50the opposition
50:51and especially
50:52during the
50:53Tsai Ing-wan
50:55term.
50:55Because when
50:56Tsai Ing-wan
50:57was president,
50:58she took a
50:59very hard
51:01nationalistic
51:01position,
51:02moving far,
51:04far away from
51:04Beijing,
51:05despite the fact
51:06that there is a
51:07lot of engagement,
51:08trade,
51:08and communication
51:10and connection
51:11between northern
51:12Taiwan and
51:13mainland China.
51:14And therefore,
51:15you're seeing a
51:15lot,
51:16which is what the
51:18KMT stronghold
51:18really is,
51:19that part of
51:20Taiwan.
51:21And therefore,
51:22you're seeing the
51:22outreach and an
51:23engagement at a
51:24time when the
51:25world is focused
51:26on wars on the
51:28other side of
51:29the globe.
51:31And this entire
51:33area with many
51:34of the warships
51:36and focus away
51:38from the Taiwan
51:39strait,
51:40it does seem
51:41like Taiwan,
51:42not just the
51:43opposition party
51:44where they've
51:45upped the ante
51:46by going to
51:47Beijing and
51:47engaging the
51:49administration
51:50there,
51:51even the
51:52government over
51:53there is having
51:55a rethink in
51:55how to engage
51:56and yet not be
51:58So, Geetha, tell me
51:58this, when you and
51:59I were reporting
51:59from Taiwan, at the
52:01height of those
52:01tensions, Taiwan
52:03told us that they
52:03have this porcupine
52:05defense strategy,
52:06that they have so
52:07many missile bases
52:08around, that
52:09they'll fire at
52:09Chinese mainland
52:10should they try
52:11and forcibly take
52:12control.
52:12But given the
52:13fact that America
52:14has removed some
52:15of its warships
52:16from this region,
52:17its missiles from
52:18South Korea,
52:19its marine
52:20expeditionary unit
52:21from Okinawa,
52:22they've spent a
52:22lot of missiles
52:23first in Ukraine,
52:24then in West
52:25Asia, is Taiwan
52:27vulnerable today?
52:28Would they be
52:28feeling vulnerable
52:29now?
52:30Absolutely, they're
52:31feeling vulnerable
52:31more than anything
52:32else.
52:33It's not a
52:33porcupine strategy,
52:35it's the fact,
52:36like you very
52:36rightly said,
52:37Gaurav, the fact
52:38that America no
52:39longer is in the
52:40region, but most
52:42importantly, the fact
52:44that Taiwan, Japan,
52:46Europe, everybody
52:47is now questioning
52:48whether if America
52:49is the net security
52:50provider or not,
52:51that is the reason
52:53why we're seeing
52:53this engagement.
52:54The fact that
52:55there's a question
52:55mark on whether
52:56if America can
52:57protect Taiwan,
52:59should it come to
53:00a situation where
53:01China tries to lay
53:03a claim over
53:04Taiwan as a
53:06land, as a
53:08territory.
53:09That's the real
53:11problem over here.
53:12So what is Taiwan
53:13looking at?
53:14Taiwan is looking
53:15at diplomacy,
53:16engagement, and
53:17dialogue.
53:18Whether the
53:18opposition doing
53:19it, or for that
53:20matter, you'd see
53:21the kind of toned
53:23down approach that
53:24even the
53:24administration in
53:25Taiwan has.
53:26Gita, keep
53:27writing that story,
53:28I will come back
53:28to you for more
53:29because to be
53:31forewarned is to
53:32be forearmed, and
53:33the situation in
53:35Taiwan could also
53:36take a turn for the
53:37worse, with China
53:38seeing how powerful
53:40or weak the
53:42Americans are at
53:43this stage.
53:43And we'll be
53:44tracking that story
53:44very closely.
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