- 26 minutes ago
In an exclusive interview on Statecraft, Professor Chuck Freilich, former deputy national security adviser of Israel, analyses the ceasefire between the US and Iran. He describes the conflict as a “military success but a strategic failure”, noting that while Iran’s capabilities were degraded, core objectives such as regime change and ending nuclear threats were not met. The bulletin also explores Oman’s underutilised potential as a strategic partner for India, highlighting how ports like Duqm and Salalah could enable Indian trade and energy imports to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the show examines the controversial role of Pakistan as a mediator in the “Islamabad Accord”, amid allegations that it acted as a proxy for US interests. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first briefing after the ceasefire is also covered, where he clarified that the campaign is not over and that Iran has committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.
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00:21What does it take to win a war in today's world?
00:25Overwhelming firepower or the ability to outlast your enemy?
00:28And what happens when a war that looks justified on paper starts slipping into a strategic dead end?
00:35Tonight we go straight to the source, an exclusive with a former Israeli national security insider who lays it bare.
00:42A war launched to stop Iran, now risking ending without victory.
00:47Military gains, yes, but at what cost?
00:50Has Iran already won the bigger game by simply surviving and controlling escalation?
00:56And then we pivot to a stunning possibility.
01:00As the Strait of Hormuz becomes the world's biggest pressure point, is India missing its smartest move?
01:06Oman.
01:07Overlooked, underused, but perfectly placed could be the key to bypassing the crisis entirely.
01:14So are we looking at the wrong battlefield and ignoring the smartest solution?
01:20Two stories.
01:21One of war, one of strategy.
01:24One about fighting harder, the other about thinking smarter.
01:28Hello and welcome.
01:29You're watching Statecraft with me, Geeta Mohan.
01:41We begin with an exclusive conversation that I had with the former Deputy National Security Advisor of Israel, Professor Chuck
01:48Freilich.
01:49He spoke about how the war and the ceasefire conversations are a military win maybe, but a strategic failure.
01:58Listen in to an excerpt of the conversation.
02:00You can watch the full interview on India Today Global's YouTube channel.
02:04I'm being joined by former Deputy National Security Advisor of Israel, Professor Chuck Freilich,
02:09who joins me when U.S. and Iran are discussing ceasefire and the agreement that they'd like to reach when
02:18it comes to stopping and halting the war.
02:21Thank you so much, sir, for joining us here on India Today Global.
02:24The fact that you have been part of the security system in Israel and in a recent piece,
02:28you also wrote that this could very well be a military success, but a strategic failure.
02:33What did you mean by that?
02:35Well, there's no doubt that Iran's military capabilities have been degraded substantially,
02:41and that is the military's success.
02:45The problem was that the objectives when the war began were regime change,
02:52ending their nuclear capability, and if not ending, at least greatly, greatly downgrading the missile capability.
03:02None of those objectives have been achieved.
03:05And Iran even ended the war, at this point at least, with the achievement of having been able to close
03:14off the gulf to shipping,
03:16creating an international financial and oil and financial crisis.
03:21And actually, in their 10 points, they're essentially preserving that for the future,
03:27so that at the moment this ceasefire, well, it's problematic.
03:32I imagine you'll want to talk about that.
03:35Absolutely.
03:36We just want the fact that there has been a ceasefire, sir, the fact that they have chosen Pakistan as
03:41the venue,
03:42and the conversations are going to take place there in Islamabad.
03:46Do you think, in your appreciation, this ceasefire will really hold?
03:51That's a very good question.
03:53I think for the two weeks it will, and I also think that both sides, both the U.S. and
03:58Iran,
03:59have a very strong interest in avoiding a renewal of fighting.
04:03So I think there's a good chance that a ceasefire will continue.
04:09Whether it will lead to a real agreement, even a permanent ceasefire, let alone some sort of peace agreement,
04:17I think it's far less likely.
04:20And maybe the most likely outcome is that things will just dissipate.
04:26There will be a de facto ceasefire.
04:28There won't be a formal agreement, but neither side will be firing at the other.
04:32And, again, the fact that Iran has even succeeded in withstanding a war, Israel is less impressive.
04:44But the fact that they may have ended up being able to withstand an onslaught by the United States of
04:49America
04:49is a big achievement for them.
04:52As a former Deputy National Security Advisor,
04:54how do you see Pakistan's role in mediating peace between U.S. and Iran?
04:58One.
04:59And where they're saying it's a double-sided ceasefire, which means Israel will also have to hold fire.
05:05But what is it at stake for Israel, and has that been accounted for by the United States of America
05:11when it goes to talks with Iran?
05:13Well, I'm not sure that Israel was really consulted on this.
05:17This was a purely American initiative, and it has ramifications more, I guess, for Indian-U.S. relations.
05:27Israel doesn't have relations with Pakistan, so it's less of an issue for us.
05:33The U.S. was looking for anybody who could help deliver a diplomatic outcome,
05:38and Pakistan took it upon itself with the help of Egypt and Turkey to do so.
05:45Right.
05:46You've also written that the objectives that they have set out for were unrealistic.
05:50Why do you say that?
05:51And why is it that as former Deputy National Security Advisor of Israel,
05:55you understand it, but an entire security establishment combine of Washington and Tel Aviv
06:01didn't when they went to war?
06:05That's a painful question that you're asking.
06:09I do not think that either the U.S. or Israel did sufficient planning here.
06:15It seems to have been very partial and to have been based on some overly optimistic assumptions.
06:24There were two things that were very true.
06:30One was that Iran had been greatly weakened by the June 2025 war,
06:35and actually by the conflict the previous year against the axis of resistance as a whole,
06:42that it was probably at a weaker position than it has been in decades.
06:47And so it was an opportunity from that point of view.
06:50And then there was the mass demonstrations in January,
06:55and there was the hope that this was an opportunity to maybe topple the regime,
07:00and President Trump had promised to intervene to help do that.
07:05So I think that explains the timing.
07:08It explains the rush and maybe the insufficiently well-thought-out planning
07:15at the operational level in terms of the objectives.
07:18My final question to you.
07:20Trump is losing the popularity war back home,
07:23and with the outcome of this conflict looking like it is heading towards a conversation,
07:27a talk, negotiations, and then maybe a deal,
07:30it doesn't seem like Netanyahu will have much of a public image left in America
07:34where they already think that Netanyahu drew Trump into an illogical war.
07:42Well, first of all, I think that that allegation,
07:44which you're absolutely right, is being made both on the left and on the right in the United States,
07:49that Netanyahu drew Trump into the war,
07:51I think that's a false allegation.
07:54Did he make a very strong case for it?
07:56Yes.
07:57But the President of the United States, first of all,
08:00has a very large and very effective decision-making machinery below him,
08:10whether it's in the Pentagon, in the State Department, in the National Security Council,
08:15and they advise him.
08:17It actually turns out that much of his senior advisors,
08:21including Secretary Rubio and the head of the CIA,
08:26the chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
08:28were quite skeptical of the presentation that Netanyahu made to Trump,
08:32but the President was convinced.
08:33Now, you have to think that the man is some sort of soft pushover
08:38to believe that just a presentation by Netanyahu is enough
08:43to get him to do something that he didn't want to do.
08:46He wanted to do it, and so he was convinced to do so.
08:50I do think that there will, however, be political ramifications
08:54for his real standing in the United States as a result of this,
08:58because I think too many people believe that Netanyahu really talked them into it.
09:03Professor Chuck Freilich, thank you so much for joining us here on India Today Global.
09:07Indeed, a pleasure.
09:09What does it take to win a war in today's world?
09:12Overwhelming firepower or the ability to outlast your enemy?
09:16And what happens when a war that looks justified on paper
09:19starts slipping into a strategic dead end?
09:23Tonight, we go straight to the source,
09:25an exclusive with a former Israeli national security insider who lays it bare.
09:29A war launched to stop Iran,
09:31now risking ending without victory.
09:34Military gains?
09:36Military gains?
09:36Yes.
09:36But at what cost?
09:37Has Iran already won the bigger game
09:40by simply surviving and controlling escalation?
09:44And then we pivot to a stunning possibility.
09:47As the Strait of Hormuz becomes the world's biggest pressure point,
09:51is India missing its smartest move?
09:54Oman.
09:55Overlooked, underused, but perfectly placed
09:58could be the key to bypassing the crisis entirely.
10:02So are we looking at the wrong battlefield
10:04and ignoring the smartest solution?
10:08Two stories.
10:09One of war, one of strategy.
10:12One about fighting harder,
10:13the other about thinking smarter.
10:16Hello and welcome.
10:17You're watching Statecraft with me, Gita Mohan.
10:27As West Asia burns and the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance,
10:31the world is scrambling for answers.
10:33But India and the world may already have one.
10:37And it lies in a country that has been hiding in plain sight.
10:41That country is Oman.
10:42And the world's failure to fully unlock its potential
10:46may be one of the costliest strategic oversights of our time.
10:50Oman sits at the edge of the Arabian Sea,
10:53directly across from India's western coastline.
10:56It controls ports that open freely into international waters,
11:00completely outside the Strait of Hormuz.
11:03While the world agonizes over Iran shutting down
11:06the world's most critical oil choke point,
11:09Oman's ports like Dukum, Sohar and Salalah
11:12offer India a way around the problem entirely.
11:16India has already made a start.
11:18In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi
11:21secured naval access to Dukum Port,
11:24a deep-sea facility 550 kilometres south of Muscat.
11:29The Indian Navy can now use it for logistics
11:31and maintenance of its warships.
11:33A $1.2 billion Indo-Omani joint venture
11:37at the Dukum Special Economic Zone
11:39is already building West Asia's largest sebassic acid plant.
11:45India's Jindal Steel Group is advancing
11:47a 5 million tonne per year low-carbon steel project
11:51in the same zone.
11:52But here's the hard truth.
11:54Despite a 2017 MOU between Adani ports
11:59and the Special Economic Zone at Dukum,
12:01concrete plans have still not materialized.
12:04Oman's officials have publicly said
12:06the door remains open.
12:07The Dukum SEZ offers three decades
12:10of corporate tax exemption,
12:13zero customs duty,
12:14complete foreign ownership,
12:16and no income tax.
12:18The invitation is on the table.
12:20India just hasn't pulled up a chair firmly enough.
12:23There's another dimension that is rarely discussed,
12:26the Musandam Peninsula.
12:28This rugged mountainous exclave of Oman
12:32juts northward into the Strait of Hormuz,
12:35forming its entire southern coastline.
12:38Musandam is strategically priceless.
12:41It gives Oman, and by extension,
12:43India's closest Gulf partner,
12:45partial control over the world's most important
12:48maritime choke point.
12:50Every tanker that passes through Hormuz
12:53sails past Omani territory.
12:55India must deepen its engagement here,
12:58not just commercially,
13:00but strategically.
13:01A country that has naval access at Dukum
13:04and deepening ties with Musandam's patron
13:06has leverage that goes far beyond
13:09what a map might suggest.
13:11The Musandam is often called
13:13the Norway of Arabia,
13:15but in geopolitical terms,
13:16it is something far more valuable,
13:19a quiet veto over the most critical shipping lane
13:22on Earth.
13:23Now consider the IMEC,
13:25the India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor,
13:28unveiled at the G20 in New Delhi in 2023.
13:31It connects Indian ports to the Gulf
13:33and onward through Saudi Arabia,
13:36Jordan and Israel to Europe.
13:39It is India's answer to China's
13:41Belt and Road Initiative.
13:42But there is a glaring gap.
13:45Oman is not a formal member.
13:47Experts and analysts have long argued
13:50that Oman's inclusion would make IMEC
13:52dramatically more resilient.
13:54Oman's Salala port ranked second globally
13:56in container port performance
13:58according to the World Bank's 2022 Index.
14:01A proposed Dukum-Riyadh railway
14:04could offer a parallel south-north freight route
14:07connecting Oman directly into the IMEC rail network.
14:11The UAE-Oman Hafid Rail,
14:13a $2.5 billion joint venture
14:16with financial closure secured in 2024,
14:19will link Sohar port to the UAE by mid-2027,
14:24further integrating Oman into regional corridors.
14:27Bringing Oman fully into IMEC
14:29would give India a Hormuz-free anchor
14:32at the very entry point to the corridor.
14:35This is not just desirable,
14:36it is urgent.
14:38And then there is the pipeline question.
14:40Oman shares borders with Saudi Arabia
14:42and has deep ties with the broader Gulf.
14:44A pipeline connecting Gulf oil producers,
14:47Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and even Iraq,
14:50through Omani territory to Dukum or Salala,
14:53could allow Gulf energy exports
14:55to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
14:59With the current U.S.-Iran war
15:00throwing global oil markets into chaos,
15:03this is no longer a theoretical proposal.
15:05It is an economic and strategic imperative.
15:08For India, which imports roughly 40% of its crude oil
15:12from the Gulf,
15:13Oman's pipeline potential
15:15is directly tied to energy security.
15:18A Hormuz-free oil corridor
15:20terminating at Omani ports
15:21and shipped straight across the Arabian Sea
15:24to Indian refineries
15:25would insulate New Delhi
15:27from the very crisis currently gripping West Asia.
15:30Finally, there is the matter of stability.
15:33The one commodity no amount of money
15:36can manufacture in this region.
15:38Oman is the only Gulf state
15:40that has maintained open, warm relations with Iran
15:43while remaining a full member of the GCC.
15:47It brokered the back-channel talks
15:49that led to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
15:51It has quietly facilitated Saudi-Iran dialogue,
15:55U.S.-Houthi communications,
15:56and prisoner swaps.
15:58Oman is the Switzerland of the Persian Gulf,
16:01but more active, more engaged,
16:03and more India-friendly.
16:05As Pakistan scrambles for diplomatic relevance
16:08by brokering the so-called Islamabad Accord,
16:11India should look to its
16:13longest-standing Gulf defense partner.
16:16Oman's warm ties with Tehran
16:18mean it can pursue all of this,
16:20ports, pipelines, and corridors,
16:23without triggering Iranian suspicion or hostility,
16:26making it the only Gulf state
16:28capable of building infrastructure
16:30that serves everyone's interests simultaneously.
16:35Unlike Saudi Arabia or Qatar,
16:37Oman lacks abundant oil and gas reserves,
16:39which means economic diversification
16:41is not a choice for musket.
16:43It is a survival strategy.
16:45And India can be its most powerful partner
16:48in that journey.
16:49Oman is not a country in crisis.
16:51It is a country of extraordinary,
16:53underutilized potential.
16:55And for India,
16:56it may be the most important relationship
16:58in the Gulf
16:59that we are not taking seriously enough.
17:10A ceasefire brokered in Pakistan's name,
17:13but sealed, it appears,
17:15in Beijing's interests.
17:16Pakistan presented itself to the world
17:18as a peace broker,
17:20the calm, neutral voice
17:21between Washington and Tehran.
17:23But a single error in an edited tweet
17:25has shattered that illusion entirely.
17:28If Islamabad was only the messenger,
17:30then who was actually calling the shots?
17:32Watch our next report by Atusha Jain.
17:43When Pakistan's PM Shahbaz Sharif
17:46posted a public appeal on X,
17:48urging the US to extend its deadline for Iran,
17:51it looked, for a moment,
17:53like a genuine act of statesmanship.
17:56But it wasn't.
17:57The edit history of that post
17:59tells a very different story.
18:01Sharif had copy-pasted his message verbatim,
18:05including the words,
18:06Draft, Pakistan's PM message on X.
18:10Six words that exposed Pakistan
18:12is a vessel state,
18:14most likely of Washington.
18:15Because a leader speaking in his own voice
18:18doesn't need to be reminded that he is.
18:21In fact, that label,
18:23Pakistan's PM,
18:24reads less like a prime minister's appeal
18:26and more like a script,
18:28handed down and beautifully delivered.
18:31Islamabad's carefully constructed image
18:33as an independent mediator
18:35collapsed in real time,
18:36on a public platform,
18:38for the entire world to see.
18:40The internet had a field day,
18:42as Islamabad was strolled left,
18:44right and centre,
18:46as Trump's literal puppet.
18:47This is the Pakistan
18:49that experts have long described
18:51in geopolitical circles,
18:53a state whose foreign policy moves
18:55are less authored and more assigned.
18:58Washington needed a neutral face
19:00on its pressure campaign against Tehran.
19:03Islamabad provided one,
19:05right on cue,
19:07complete with a polished 10-point proposal
19:09and a plea for more time.
19:11But here's the twist,
19:12even the role may have been
19:14above Pakistan's actual pay grade.
19:16Because while Islamabad was playing the messenger,
19:19Beijing was closing the deal.
19:21President Trump himself told AFP
19:24he believed China had persuaded Iran
19:26to come to the table.
19:28The New York Times reported
19:29that the ceasefire only crossed the finish line
19:32after a last-minute Chinese intervention,
19:35Beijing quietly asking Tehran
19:37to show flexibility and stand down.
19:40The logic is straightforward.
20:11China is Iran.
20:17the peace and the peace of Israel
20:19and the peace of Israel
20:20and the peace of Israel
20:21and the peace of Israel
20:21and the peace of Israel
20:22and peace of Israel
20:22that everyone sees
20:23in the Middle East,
20:24we create new countries
20:26with countries in the region.
20:28Now, I've been working on this, that the fight against Iran is not going to turn to Hezbollah, and we
20:36continue to fight it in power.
20:39Today, we've been talking about Hezbollah today, which is the biggest threat that he has taken from then.
20:47We've got 100 goals for 10 minutes, in places where Hezbollah was sure they were thieves.
20:57We are willing to give you security.
21:01We've created security risks, in Lebanon, in Syria, in Gaza.
21:08We're going to go beyond the threat of the threat and attack the Hamas from all over.
21:15The citizens of Israel, those who are willing to fight against the threat of the threat of Israel, the threat
21:21of the state of Israel and the soldiers,
21:25those who are willing to fight against them, or who doesn't know what he is talking about, or who is
21:31talking about the threat of the threat.
21:33Because the truth is simple.
21:35As I told you, at the beginning of the war, we've changed the face of the Middle East to the
21:41good of Israel in a dramatic way.
21:44And we'll continue to do this.
21:46Because we are the enemy side, we are the enemy side, and in the power of God, we are the
21:53enemy side.
21:59We are the enemy side, and there will be no prisoners of hope.
22:24And this was Netanyahu's first briefing after the ceasefire happened between this.
22:30In fact, he's saying negotiation was underway.
22:33And this was in his first briefing after the ceasefire that was brokered yesterday,
22:38where we saw Trump agreeing for a deal.
22:41He's saying now Netanyahu is saying that this is not the end of the campaign.
22:46He's saying this is not the end of the campaign.
22:49Negotiation underway to achieve our goals.
22:52Ceasefire was coordinated with Israel and Iran has committed to opening Hormuz.
22:58Once again, we see that, in fact, Netanyahu is saying that Iran has committed to opening Hormuz
23:04after the ceasefire was coordinated with Israel.
23:07This is the latest that we're getting in after we see this first press briefing,
23:12first briefing by Netanyahu after the ceasefire.
23:15And in fact, in the morning, we saw that even after the ceasefire happened,
23:19we saw bombings happening in Lebanon.
23:23And then Israel saying that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire deal.
23:28And so the bombings continued there.
23:29Now Netanyahu is saying that this is not the end of the campaign.
23:33Negotiations are underway to achieve the goals.
23:36And ceasefire was coordinated with Israel.
23:38And Iran has committed to opening the Strait of Hormuz.
23:41Remember, Strait of Hormuz is a very crucial sea passage at this moment of time.
23:47We saw that Iran initially had said that it would allow some of the ships to pass.
23:52In fact, we saw, as per the latest information that we got, that two ships were allowed.
23:57But after that, Iran was monitoring the Strait.
24:09And with that, it's a wrap on this bulletin.
24:12For more news and updates, log in to indiatoday.in or check out the India Today app.
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