- 7 weeks ago
ON RECORD SA UNANG HIRIT na tinalakay ang pagbaba ng purchasing power ng piso. Ayon sa PSA, ang halaga na lang piso ay katumbas na lamang ng 75 centavos. Ibig sabihin, ang mabibili ng P1000 mo noong 2018, ngayon ay P750 na lang. Sinagot ng isang ekonomista ang mga dahilan sa pagbaba nito at ano ang mga dapat gawin ng gobyerno.
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00:00Yung pwedeng mabili ng 1,000 pesos noong 2018,
00:04kumpara ngayon ay 7.50 na lang.
00:08Yung layo ng nararating ng piso natin e nababawasan.
00:11So we are forced to buy less with the same amount.
00:21Pilipinas, gising na ah!
00:23Nanito pong mainit na pinag-uusapan ngayon.
00:25Ayon sa Philippine Statistics Authority o PSA,
00:30ito ang piso.
00:31Tapakita ko, ang katumbasalang daw ay 75 centavos.
00:36Dahil daw po yan sa inflation,
00:38ano kaya masasabi ng mga kapuso natin tungkol dito sa halaga ng piso?
00:44Opo, ramdam.
00:46Stress kasi ang taas ng bilihin e.
00:49Ang litna ng value ng pera, 1,000, parang isang bilihan na lang.
00:53Hindi tayo nakapreparad dun sa mga bagay na mangyayari.
00:56Parang gagawa pa lang sila ng mga solusyon
00:59naramdaman na natin yung hirap.
01:01Oo, ramdam na ramdam.
01:03Ang pera mo, wala pa rin nangyayari.
01:06Pupos talaga.
01:07Hindi sapat yung sinasahod.
01:09Doon, bilang mo lang ng bigas ulam.
01:11Mamaya, wala na.
01:12Parang halagang 10 piso na lang yung 1,000 ngayon.
01:15Wala na ang kwenta yung 1,000.
01:20Aray ko po.
01:21Dako.
01:21Yan ang pag-uusapan.
01:23Lilinawin at hihimayin natin.
01:25On record.
01:26Sa unang hirin.
01:28At makakasama po natin ngayon,
01:30ang economist na si Michael Ricafort.
01:32Good morning, sir.
01:33Good morning, Ivan.
01:34At sa inyong mga taga-subaybay po.
01:35Sir, we are on record now.
01:37Naririnig natin itong mga nakarang araw,
01:39yung purchasing power ng piso.
01:42Pakipaliwanag nga po, sir Michael,
01:44ano ba ang ibig sabihin ng purchasing power?
01:46Sa pamagitan ng aktual na halimbawa natin
01:48na yung dating piso daw,
01:50ayon sa PSA,
01:5275 pesos na lang ang value ngayon.
01:54O, yun yung ano, Ivan.
01:55Pag bumili ka ngayon,
01:58compared noon kasi,
01:59ang base year niyan, 2018.
02:00Okay.
02:01So, yung piso dati,
02:03yung mabibili ngayon,
02:05eh parang equivalent na lang sa,
02:07yung halagaw, bumabanas.
02:08Parang 75 centavos na lang.
02:10So, mas konti na yung mabibili ngayon.
02:12Okay.
02:12Yan, mas ma-illustrate siguro natin
02:15para mas maaintindihan ng mga manonood natin.
02:18Lakiyan natin yung scale.
02:20Parehong porsyento, same percentage.
02:22Yung pwedeng mabili ng 1,000 pesos noong 2018,
02:27kumpara ngayon,
02:28ay 7.50 na lang ang halaga nito.
02:31Ito, please sir,
02:32i-illustrate natin how that works.
02:35Ito, ito.
02:36Ito, noong 2018, halimbawa,
02:39ang 1,000 pesos,
02:42ganito karaming mabibili.
02:44Yun nga lang,
02:45pagdating ngayon,
02:47yan na lang.
02:48Kumonte, sir?
02:49Bawas na.
02:51Yung itlog, kalahati na lang.
02:54Ito kasing 2018,
02:57kung yung value na dati 1,000,
02:59ito, sir, makikita natin,
03:01dalawang dosya ng itlog,
03:02may variety tayo ng mga delata,
03:07may bigas, syempre, basic yan,
03:10may tinapay,
03:11yan, sukat,
03:12o yung mga karaniwang kailangan natin sa kusina.
03:15Whereas,
03:16at current value,
03:19at 750 na lang,
03:22ang value ng dating 1,000, sir,
03:24ano bang meron dito tayo ngayon sa side ninyo?
03:26Ano na lang,
03:27nangalahati yung delata,
03:29nangalahati yung itlog,
03:31isang tray na lang,
03:32dati dalawang tray,
03:33tapos yung noodles,
03:35kalahati na lang yung pack,
03:36pero yung basic kasi,
03:38yan,
03:39syempre,
03:39bigas,
03:40steady,
03:41tinapay,
03:41steady,
03:42so,
03:42parang,
03:43kita dito,
03:44magtitipid yung tao,
03:46pero syempre,
03:47titignan din natin kung nag-adjust din yung kita.
03:49Yes,
03:50basically, sir,
03:52yung layo,
03:53nang nararating ng piso natin,
03:56e nababawasan.
03:57So,
03:57we are forced to buy less
03:58with the same amount.
03:59Sir,
04:00ano ba yung basihan o factors that reduce or diminish purchasing power?
04:04Kung isipin natin,
04:06yung pagkawala ng 25% sa purchasing power took more or less 8 years,
04:102018 versus 2026.
04:12Mabilis ba yun?
04:13Or is that a normal rate ng pagbaba ng purchasing power?
04:19Ano siya,
04:20kasi tatlong beses nag-spike yung prices since 2018.
04:24Nakina yung 2018 itself,
04:26mataas din yung inflation nun, e.
04:28Big in yung time na nawala yung murang NFA rice.
04:31Tapos,
04:31e yun,
04:32bigas ang ano nun.
04:33Among other factors,
04:35kasi yung world price din ng oil nun,
04:37mataas.
04:37Pero higit na mas mataas,
04:39itong taon na to,
04:41and four years ago,
04:422022,
04:43ganun din yung Russia-Ukraine war.
04:45Okay.
04:45E nag-spike din yung world oil price.
04:47E ngayon,
04:48pero itong ngayon,
04:49itong may git sa buwan na,
04:51dito sa war on Iran and Middle East,
04:53e,
04:53kita naman natin yung diesel,
04:55may git doble na,
04:56nasa 150 na pesos from,
04:58alas triply na nga yun,
04:59yung pinagalingan yan,
05:00Tapos,
05:01yung gasolina,
05:01e,
05:02nagdoble,
05:03di ba?
05:03Or,
05:04may git sa doble,
05:05depende ko sa lokasyon.
05:06So,
05:07compared to four years ago,
05:09ito yung highest ngayon sa gasolina,
05:11medyo hawig,
05:11or a little higher,
05:12pero in diesel,
05:12higit na mataas.
05:13Pero,
05:13sir,
05:14balikan natin yung,
05:15historically,
05:16kapag nagkakaroon talaga ng conflict,
05:18anywhere in the world,
05:20magkakaroon ng disruption,
05:21sa oil man yan,
05:23sa supply chain man yan,
05:24pero talaga hong ito yung nagkakos ng spike sa presyo.
05:27Yeah,
05:28kasi lalo na yung wala tayong control dyan sa world oil price,
05:31parang nagiging matic na yun,
05:33unfortunately.
05:34At dito yan,
05:35di naman natin alam,
05:35kailan matapos yung gera.
05:37Di ba yung,
05:37yung gera na to,
05:39although may ceasefire na dalawa linggo,
05:41well and good,
05:41at least,
05:42bumaba ng konti yung world price,
05:43pero mataas pa rin,
05:44kung mamili tayong gasolina,
05:46diesel,
05:46mahal pa rin.
05:47Tapos,
05:47four years ago,
05:49ganun din,
05:50parang,
05:50ano na yan eh,
05:51pag tumataas yung world price ng gasolina,
05:54or diesel,
05:55at ng petrolyo,
05:57eh,
05:58pasapasa.
05:58May ano,
05:59tumataan yung inflation.
06:00Sir,
06:01as it is,
06:01hindi pa natin ramdam talaga yung full effect
06:04ng,
06:04ng gera na to.
06:06Kasi sinasabi ng DTI,
06:08yung basic commodities,
06:11hindi pa naman talaga tumataas
06:12ng todo-todo yung presyo.
06:14True,
06:14kasi old stocks pa rin naman yung,
06:16ano eh,
06:16parang kaya nga may,
06:17parang at least,
06:18nag-commit sila na,
06:19yung iba sa kanila,
06:20na one to two months,
06:21hindi mo na mag-increase.
06:23Pero itong gulo,
06:23sir,
06:24sa Middle East,
06:24inaasahan na i-accelerate ito,
06:26yung pababa ng purchasing power.
06:28Well,
06:29kasi,
06:29unfortunately,
06:31kasi pag mataas,
06:32pasapasa eh,
06:33yung may chain reaction eh.
06:35Siyempre,
06:35yan,
06:36nagkakapetisyon na mataas yung pamasahe.
06:38Although,
06:38dinilay muna,
06:39kasi dinaan sa ayuda,
06:41directo doon sa mga driver,
06:42no?
06:42Pati yung ibang,
06:43yung ibang subsidies din,
06:45sa fisher folk,
06:47sa magsasaka,
06:48para hindi,
06:48mabukasan yung pagpasa,
06:50yung pass-through effect.
06:51Pero,
06:51yun ang,
06:52siyempre,
06:53pag tumahas yung transport cost,
06:54yung ibang produkto,
06:55tatry na nila,
06:56kung kaya nila ipasa,
06:57ipapasa nila.
06:58Siyempre,
06:59dungtungtungtung na yan.
07:00Eventually,
07:01pamasahe,
07:02matter of time,
07:03no?
07:03Tapos,
07:04ganun din yung mga wages,
07:06no?
07:06So,
07:07pati yung ibang,
07:08lahat nang may,
07:09either itatransport yung mga produkto
07:11o yung input ko sila,
07:13apektado yung raw material
07:14o yung input,
07:15apektado din yung finished goods.
07:17So,
07:17may pass-through talaga.
07:18Pero, sir,
07:18yung sa fuel talagang very obvious,
07:20no?
07:20Just for context,
07:22mga kapuso,
07:22no?
07:24Yung minimum wage ho ngayon,
07:26ang katumbas na lang niya
07:27ay apat na litrong diesel.
07:29Di ho ba?
07:30Parang 600 plus pesos,
07:32nasa 160 per liter yata ngayon.
07:35Ang 1,000 pesos ngayon,
07:3610 litrong gasolina na lang.
07:38Ang bigat, sir,
07:39ano?
07:39Ang bigat.
07:40Have you seen anything like this
07:42in the past decade
07:45or two decades?
07:46Parang wala pang ganito kataas na
07:47palong ng presyo ng krudo,
07:49no?
07:49Ng fuel.
07:50In recent memory,
07:52no?
07:52Pero yung ano,
07:53yung hawig,
07:54yung talagang natandaan ko rin,
07:56yung,
07:56para simplified,
07:57no?
07:58Late 80s to early 90s,
08:00sa Middle East din yun,
08:01yung desert storm,
08:02Invade ni Saddam yung Kuwait,
08:04tapos nalibrate yung Kuwait.
08:05Eh,
08:06to simplify things,
08:07natin mga late 80s,
08:09yung gasolina, diesel,
08:10mga nasa ano lang,
08:11minsan mga 5,
08:13tapos minsan nagiging 7 pesos per liter,
08:15eh,
08:15hawig,
08:16kung tinan times mo,
08:17hawig,
08:17ngayon,
08:17pinagalingan natin.
08:18Tapos,
08:19noong nag-desert storm,
08:20naging ano yan,
08:20yung pinakamataas yan,
08:2120,
08:2225 pesos.
08:23So,
08:23kung tinan times mo,
08:24200 to 250.
08:25So,
08:25eh,
08:25yung huling pagkakataon na medyo hawig,
08:28eh,
08:28yung pasa-pasa eh,
08:30yung huminay halaga ng pera,
08:31nagtay ngayon.
08:32chain reaction talaga,
08:32no?
08:33But how does this compare?
08:34Kung pag-uusapan natin yung historical data,
08:36ito na ba yung pinakamababang,
08:38pag,
08:39o pinakamababang purchasing power ng piso?
08:41Well,
08:42medyo,
08:42dahil nga,
08:43yung every 4 years,
08:44no?
08:452018,
08:46may spike ng price,
08:482022,
08:48yung Russia.
08:49May cycle talaga,
08:49no?
08:50O,
08:50nataon lang dahil sa geopolitics,
08:52yung gira din,
08:52no?
08:52Kasi lalo na gira na involving oil,
08:55natas may spike ng oil prices.
08:57kaya ngayon,
08:58yung wages,
08:59tumaas every year.
09:01Nung pandemic,
09:02hindi naman masyado na-adjust yung wages,
09:04eh,
09:04no?
09:04Mga lockdown,
09:04no?
09:05Pero,
09:052022,
09:072023,
09:082024,
09:09agang last year,
09:10ang average increase ng wages,
09:126 to 7 percent.
09:13Mm-hmm.
09:14Compounding.
09:15So,
09:16tapos last year nga,
09:16mga 7 percent eh.
09:18So,
09:19siyempre,
09:19tumataas,
09:20eh,
09:20pag tumas din yung sweldo,
09:22bukod sa pagtasang iba presyo na bilihin,
09:24so yung mga produkto at servisyo,
09:26nataas din.
09:26Ipapasa din yung higher cost.
09:28Nabanggit niyo yung wages,
09:30sir,
09:30paano ba tayo dapat mag-cope dito?
09:32Kasi ano ba dapat gawin ng gobyerno?
09:34Kung isipin,
09:35in plain and simple terms,
09:36kung mahina yung purchasing power,
09:38eh,
09:38di dagdagan ng pera.
09:39Taasan ang sahod.
09:40Pero,
09:41is this the logical solution
09:42to the reduction in purchasing power?
09:47Well,
09:47yung supposedly,
09:48para maka-catch up.
09:50Pero,
09:50there are other factors also,
09:52Ivan eh.
09:52Like,
09:52yung depreciation ng peso,
09:54kasi kung sinukat natin
09:55from 2018 to present,
09:57yung depreciation,
09:58mga more than 20 percent.
10:00Ang cut-off kasi niyan,
10:01March.
10:01So,
10:01noong time na yun,
10:02mga 22 percent.
10:04Eh,
10:04nasa 60.748 yung peso
10:07ng end March.
10:07Eh,
10:08ngayon at least kahapon,
10:09nagsarang mas mababa.
10:1059.43
10:11dahil nga may peace deal,
10:13may peace agreement for two weeks.
10:15Pero,
10:15ganun pa man din,
10:16nag-reflect.
10:17Kasi,
10:17mga kung 20,
10:18around 22 percent
10:20yung paghina ng piso,
10:22ay yung hawing doon sa paghina
10:24ng purchasing power ng piso.
10:26Kasi,
10:26for obvious reasons,
10:27pag tayo,
10:28mamimili tayong import,
10:29eh,
10:29kasi pahalita,
10:3049 lang yung peso
10:31ng early 2018 eh,
10:34and 2017,
10:3549 lang.
10:35Tapos ngayon,
10:36nanggaling sa 60,
10:37ngayon na sa 59.
10:39So,
10:39kung bibili tayo from abroad,
10:41we're a net importing country,
10:42mas konti na lang talaga
10:43yung mabibili.
10:44Ang swerte yung kabila,
10:45yung mga may dollars,
10:47mas mura,
10:48magbibili dito yung mga foreigner,
10:50mag-turista,
10:51yung investors,
10:52pag mag-invest sila.
10:53Ito naman sir,
10:54para maibalik sa piso,
10:55yung halaga na naging 75 centavos na lang
10:58para mapalakas ulit,
10:59or maibalik sa dati yung purchasing power,
11:02magkano ba dapat idagdag sa minimum wage?
11:04Is there an easy formula
11:07to determine that?
11:09Kasi ngayon,
11:10yung every year naman nagko-compound yan.
11:12At least,
11:13bag mula 2022,
11:15hanggang 2025,
11:16o 6 to 7 percent at least,
11:17every year yung compounding.
11:20Pero yun kasi,
11:21ang wages,
11:22ang dinadetermine yan ng regional wage boards
11:24kada regyon,
11:25depende doon sa sitwasyon.
11:27Tripartite yan eh,
11:29yung mga workers,
11:30or yung mga labor,
11:32then yung mga negosyo,
11:33and yung gobyerno.
11:35So, nagkakasundo-sundo sila
11:37kung ano yung kaya nila,
11:38they'll meet somewhere in between,
11:41and they'll reach an agreement,
11:45and hopefully,
11:46that would partly address
11:47yung paghina ng purchasing power.
11:50Kasi at least,
11:51cumulative naman yung...
11:52Pero,
11:52ang hinihingi ho ng tao ngayon,
11:55ang bottom line nila,
11:57relief.
11:58Ano ba yung immediate measures
11:59na dapat o pwedeng gawin ng gobyerno?
12:02Amidst all of this,
12:04yung impact sa purchasing power,
12:05nakikita natin ngayon,
12:07ayuda heavy yung nagiging,
12:09yung nagiging tugon ng gobyerno.
12:11Pero,
12:11ano pa ho kaya
12:12ang pwedeng gawin ng gobyerno
12:13to provide relief
12:15sa mga tao,
12:16sa mga mamamayan?
12:16Well,
12:17structurally,
12:18kasi masyado na tayo
12:19naging dependent sa imports.
12:21Doon din kasi nag-reflect eh.
12:22Kasi,
12:22consistent.
12:24Kung,
12:24since 2018,
12:25yung paghina ng piso,
12:2722%,
12:28eh,
12:29di ba yung pagbawas din
12:30ng purchasing power,
12:3125%,
12:32naging 75,
12:34yung piso,
12:35naging 75 cents sa lang yung purchase.
12:37Parang correlated doon.
12:38Meaning to say,
12:39kasi,
12:40pag nag-aangkat tayo,
12:42eh,
12:42halos consistent.
12:43So,
12:43ibig sabihin nun,
12:44huwag tayo maging dependent
12:46sa importation
12:47agat maharin.
12:47Pero long term yan, sir.
12:48Long term eh.
12:49But in the short term,
12:51in the immediate term,
12:52ano bang tingin ninyong
12:53pwedeng gawin pa?
12:54O ngayon,
12:55at least ginagawa
12:56bukod sa subsidies
12:57para hindi mapasa
12:58yung mataas na presyo,
12:59subsidiya sa transport sector,
13:01sa agriculture,
13:02sa fisher folk,
13:03para yung pass-through,
13:04hindi yung pagpasa ng presyo,
13:06mamitigate, no?
13:07Tatot tal,
13:07sila naman yung
13:08pinakapektado
13:08sa pagtasang petrolyo, no?
13:10Bukod doon,
13:11yung mga non-monetary measures,
13:13like yung
13:13yung insuring na,
13:15ayan,
13:15moral situation,
13:16na kausap yung industries,
13:17yung various business groups,
13:18huwag muna itas yung presyo
13:20for one to two months,
13:21kung pumayag yung
13:22yung iba sa kanila,
13:24syempre, yung other measures,
13:25yung police power din,
13:27para yung presyo,
13:28actually,
13:29we have seen that
13:29for the past 30,
13:3140, 50 years,
13:32para talaga,
13:33kasi that's for
13:34consumer welfare,
13:35other than,
13:35well, of course,
13:36number one,
13:36yung prices,
13:37yung price loss,
13:39tapos yung,
13:40ano rin,
13:40yung overall,
13:41para sa consumer,
13:42ikapakanan ng consumer natin,
13:43consumer protection,
13:44Kung enforce po yun,
13:45yung iba-ibang ahensya
13:46na may jurisdiction
13:47sa iba-ibang produkto,
13:49eh, yun ang,
13:50that's one way to mitigate.
13:51And of course,
13:51yung supplies,
13:52securing yung supplies din,
13:54making sure na,
13:55tulad ngayon,
13:56petrolyo yung number one
13:57na usapin with the
13:58state of national
13:59emergency on energy.
14:00So,
14:01yung securing the supplies,
14:02para,
14:03yun,
14:04yung presyo,
14:04well,
14:05actually,
14:05even the basic commodities,
14:06they've been
14:08prioritizing it naman,
14:09even before the,
14:10during the pandemic
14:10and before the pandemic.
14:11As a parting shot, sir,
14:12two parts,
14:13itong last question natin,
14:14ano,
14:14mukhang tuloy-tuloy pa,
14:16itong gulo sa Middle East.
14:17Una,
14:17ano ba ang worst case scenario?
14:19And second,
14:20more importantly,
14:21individually,
14:22or in our own households,
14:24ano ba pwede natin gawin, sir?
14:25Ano bang,
14:26madali sabihin,
14:27magtipid,
14:28maghigpit ng sinturon,
14:30kaso,
14:31dulo na yung butas
14:31ng sinturon, sir,
14:32ipit na ipit na
14:33mga,
14:33mga tiyan ng mga tao,
14:34ano,
14:35ano ba pwede gawin
14:36ng mga mama mo yan?
14:36Well,
14:37true,
14:38ngayon talagang,
14:39ano eh,
14:40well,
14:40may optionality din yung mga tao.
14:42Doon nga binanggit ko,
14:44yung parang from the point of view
14:46of the outsiders,
14:47mga foreigners,
14:47pagka mag-tuturista sila,
14:50baliktad sila yung,
14:51kasi mas,
14:51yung pagpapalit sila ng dollar,
14:53dati 49 lang,
14:54ngayon,
14:54ano na,
14:5559 or even 60,
14:56galing sa 60 a few days ago.
14:58So,
14:59yung mga OFW,
15:01yung mga kumikita ng dollar.
15:03Although,
15:03syempre,
15:03mas marami yung palitan nila,
15:05no,
15:06dati 49,000 lang yung 1,000 dollars,
15:08ngayon,
15:0859,000,
15:0910,000 yung at least,
15:10nadagdag,
15:11no?
15:11So,
15:12ayun yung optionality,
15:13pwedeng kung talagang,
15:15una,
15:15yung abilidad na ano eh,
15:17kasi,
15:17ngayon yung tumasyong bilihin,
15:18ang challenge,
15:19paano,
15:20para kataasin naman yung kita?
15:21So,
15:22pwede naman locally,
15:24talagang doble sipag din,
15:26yung doble discarte,
15:28or optionality na,
15:30pwede rin i-consider yung overseas,
15:31kaya marami tayong kababayan
15:32na nagtatrabaho overseas,
15:34no?
15:35Kasi,
15:36yung palitan,
15:37kahit papano,
15:38mas malaki yung palitan,
15:39no?
15:39Compared to,
15:40kung purely local lang,
15:41no?
15:42Eh,
15:42but the thing is,
15:43kung mamimili rin naman sila,
15:44eto mas din yung,
15:45medyo na-negade din
15:46ang pagtasang presyo
15:47ng bilihin,
15:48no?
15:48But the thing is,
15:49yun,
15:49given those options,
15:51no?
15:51Yung greater ability
15:52to earn more.
15:53Yes.
15:54Pero siyempre,
15:55yung ano din,
15:57yeah,
15:57parang,
15:58eto na,
15:58every four years na nangyayari,
16:00yung pagtaasang presyo
16:01ng petrolyo,
16:02na bilihin,
16:032018,
16:032022,
16:04at ngayon,
16:05so,
16:06ayun,
16:06conservation,
16:07and yung ba-structural na,
16:09yun,
16:10huwag tayong masa sa
16:11imported na krudo,
16:13at ibang produkto,
16:14yan,
16:14yung renewable,
16:15solar,
16:16wind,
16:16yun,
16:17para hindi tayo masyado
16:18vulnerable sa external factors,
16:20sa wala tayong control.
16:22Maraming maraming salamat,
16:23Chief Economist,
16:24Michael Drickaport, sir.
16:26Alam natin,
16:27hindi pa ito tapos.
16:29Hindi pa malinaw
16:31kung kailan ito matatapos.
16:32Meron tayong pwedeng gawin.
16:35Kapit lang po,
16:36mga kapuso,
16:37matatapos din ito.
16:38Ang mga isyong pinag-uusapan,
16:40lilinawin at ihimayin natin yan
16:41on record
16:42sa unang hirin.
16:48Wait!
16:49Wait, wait, wait!
16:51Wait lang!
16:52Huwag mo muna i-close.
16:53Mag-subscribe ka na muna
16:55sa GMA Public Affairs
16:56YouTube channel
16:57para lagi kang una
16:58sa mga latest kweto at balita.
17:00I-follow mo na rin
17:01ang official social media pages
17:03ng unang hirin.
17:05Thank you!
17:06O sige na!
17:06Thank you!
17:08Thank you!
17:08Thank you!
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