00:00Peter Sand is chief analyst at Ocean and Air freight market analytics firm Zanetta.
00:07Peter, this is such a fast-moving story.
00:10You know, the strait was open and then it wasn't.
00:12I mean, could this two-week ceasefire fragile as it is really get cargo moving again?
00:20I think it's fair to say that this is an uneasy ceasefire.
00:24Well, cargo may be able to move for a limited period of time over the coming two weeks.
00:31But currently, as you put it also, it's fairly close.
00:35But priority will be, of course, made for any transits.
00:39Hopefully energy going out and container shipping going in.
00:43If when it reopens again, who?
00:46Which shipping countries, which countries, which economies or markets stand to gain?
00:52And who bears the cost?
00:54I think it's relevant to say that if the Iranian Revolutionary Guard still controls the entry and exit to the
01:04European Gulf,
01:05friends of Iran will, of course, get priority to shipments.
01:10And that's most likely to be exports of oil and liquefied natural gas.
01:15But if we also look at the much-needed supplies that comes in the form of food and other, say,
01:22medical supplies transported in containers,
01:24we have seen the costs rise some almost 300 percent if we look at a key trade lane from China
01:31to Jebella Li in UAE.
01:33So let's talk a little bit more about China and how this affects China's trade flows and its position as
01:41a global energy and shipping hub.
01:45I think it's fair to say that China is siding with Iran on many issues, including this one as neutral
01:53as it buys to be.
01:55But obviously relying to a large extent on energy supplies from Middle East, China was also one of the first
02:02countries to act with an export ban of oil products early on in this crisis.
02:08So I think everyone outside the Middle East relying on the crucial energy supplies from that region is potentially benefiting
02:18if the straits opening again, right?
02:20And if they do, where will the lasting transit opportunities come from?
02:26Or do you think uncertainty is the default for global shipping?
02:33Uncertainty for sure here, there and everywhere.
02:35But I think it's fair to say that we're probably going to see crude oil being transported to India and
02:42China amongst the first shipments.
02:45And then, of course, at the discretion, we should also see containers that was frustrated on 28 Feb at the
02:53start of the war find its way into Jebella Li and container ships,
02:57hopefully also getting out safely again in order to secure what's needed for the population inside the European countries.
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