00:00Let's talk a little more about the significance of Karg Island and the potential impact of these attacks by the
00:06United States and talk to Elijah Magnier, the security analyst.
00:11Elijah, welcome back. How significant are these U.S. strikes?
00:18Hello, thank you for having me. Yes and no. Actually, I would say it depends on what is the objective.
00:25And so far we have no clue really what is Donald Trump's objective in this war.
00:31If it is just a theatrical bombardment of a 20 square kilometers island and to take out the military installation,
00:42then yes, he has achieved his objective.
00:45If it is to pursue the objective of opening the Strait of Hormuz for navigation, then the answer is no.
00:53And Donald Trump is really ill-advised because the Iranians have so many levels of steps they can take to
01:03close the Strait of Hormuz,
01:05not only by announcing they are closing it or by using missiles from inland, whatever the distance is,
01:13they have a very long range missiles, or by just sinking a ship in that little crossing,
01:19and then nobody would be naturally able to cross the passage of Hormuz.
01:25Therefore, yes, the island, Donald Trump said that he hit only the oil.
01:32Iran confirmed that.
01:33He did not hit the depot of oil.
01:37That is more or less 80 million barrels that are stored there.
01:42And it is handling 90 percent of Iran crude oil export.
01:47But he said he did not target the oil.
01:50Nevertheless, there is another development today that two other islands were hit during the day,
01:56the Kashm and Abu Musa.
01:58So we don't really know where Donald Trump is going on here and what is his objective.
02:03So you were saying that this U.S. attack on Karg Island might not be a game changer in this
02:10conflict.
02:12Absolutely not, because the surface-to-surface missile that the Iranians have,
02:18starting from supersonic missiles to hypersonic missiles,
02:24can hunt down any tanker that is crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
02:30And also, as I said, there are so many ways to close the Strait of Hormuz,
02:36by other means, even under extremely heavy bombardment.
02:41What do you think is next in this Iran war that Mr. Trump, of course, says will end very soon?
02:50I think this is a very difficult question, and I don't know,
02:54I don't think Donald Trump knows the answer.
02:57The point here is, who's going to come down the tree first?
03:02Whoever's going to ask for a ceasefire is going to blink first and lose the wall.
03:08Now, Donald Trump cannot ask for a ceasefire without an agreement because the Iranians will not accept it.
03:16However, they do not accept an agreement with the Americans because they are part of the problem, not the solution.
03:23Therefore, they need to go toward the United Nations, involve other countries,
03:28super-powered countries, talking about China and Russia.
03:30So all that is still very complicated and has not materialized.
03:35But for now, the Americans are just bombing.
03:38The Iranians are bombing back.
03:40They are increasing the cost of this war.
03:42The Americans don't know what is the next step because we see only a theoretical attack
03:49by the strongest country in the world that has so many bombs and planes they can destroy.
03:55But is this the way to win the war?
03:57The answer is no.
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