00:00Well, the global maritime supply chains are basically under a lot of pressure with the ongoing war in the Middle
00:07East.
00:07So the de facto closure of Hormuz and certainly also the Babel-Mandip Strait at the southern end of Red
00:15Sea is really causing a lot of strains on global supply chains.
00:20So a lot of uncertainty right now and more disruptions to come around the next corner.
00:24How long do you think it'll be before this trickles down to consumers worldwide?
00:29How soon before we feel it in our pocket?
00:35I think businesses will feel it very shortly.
00:39Some working on just-in-time supply chains will perhaps miss cargoes coming their way very shortly.
00:47So us as consumers will probably get hit a little bit further down the line either because some manufacturing conveyor
00:54belts are coming to a standstill or simply because of, say, disruption with cargoes not moving.
01:03But global maritime supply chains are accustomed to drama, also like what we see here.
01:09They are used to work under much-changed conditions from time to time, and they have proven fairly resilient over
01:18time.
01:19But obviously, everyone should expect delays.
01:23Everyone should expect lower reliability on when goods will arrive, maybe also goods moving into the Arabian Gulf where they
01:32will actually be in the need of pickup if they can't make it all the way in there.
01:37So still a lot of disruption on the short-term horizon and potentially also with something triggering into the global
01:46networks of container shipping the longer this situation lasts.
01:51How difficult would it be for vessels to reroute, do you think?
01:55Where would they reroute to, and how would that work?
01:58Yeah, we have a lot of containers on the water already heading for ports and destinations inside the Arabian Gulf.
02:07And obviously, that's a no-go.
02:09They cannot go there.
02:10On a monthly average, we see 800,000 containers heading into the Middle East.
02:16So right now, freight forwarders and carriers are really scrambling to find alternatives to where that cargo will be discharged,
02:26preferably, of course, at the least troublesome point close to where it was originally intended.
02:33That could be Port of Salala in Oman.
02:36It could be temporarily Port of Colombo on Sri Lanka or in the southernmost part of India.
02:43On top of that, many carriers and freight forwarders have also stopped accepting boogies for containers moving into the Arabian
02:52Gulf, of course, because they have nowhere to put it in the end.
02:56So they would rather keep those boxes out of the ports and terminal parameters in order not to plug up
03:03the ports.
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