00:00Let's get more now on a potential U.S. ground invasion of Iran with retired British Air Vice Marshal and
00:06military analyst Sean Bell.
00:08Sean, great to have you back. Thank you for being with us today.
00:12Hi, just wanting to ask you about this Wall Street Journal report that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000
00:19more soldiers,
00:21in addition to the 7,000 ground troops or so, already on the way to the Middle East.
00:25And what do we know at this stage about the makeup of these forces, these different groups of forces,
00:30where they're headed to and what roles they potentially could be capable of playing on the ground?
00:37Yeah, Paul, what you're trying to get me to do is get inside President Trump's head, and that is an
00:42incredibly difficult thing to do.
00:43What we do know is that the majority of the initial sort of 5,000 to 7,000 U.S.
00:49Marine Corps soldiers were sent to the region,
00:52some of them from Okinawa, some of them from the west coast of the U.S.
00:55They are specialist amphibious forces. In other words, they can move forces from the sea to the land very effectively.
01:03They use specialized ships. I think they've got the Boxer and the Tripoli were the two ships that provide support,
01:09and they provide helicopter support backwards and forwards from ship to shore, but also have fighter jets.
01:14It's normally the new F-35 jets, the vertical takeoff and landing variant, F-35B.
01:21So it's an incredibly potent force for those 5,000.
01:24The other 10,000 at the moment seems to just be a bolstering force once the U.S. Marine Corps
01:30have made their landings
01:32and established a land position.
01:33The broader question, though, is, although the numbers sound pretty significant,
01:40what force are they going to be facing?
01:42I mean, when America invaded Iraq, we were talking about 300,000 forces,
01:47and Iran sounds like it's got well over a million forces under arms.
01:51So this is a very small number at the moment.
01:53It would be quite a limited capability if it actually had to be used in anger.
01:58And the United States, of course, has a form in holding talks, going down potentially diplomatic routes,
02:04and then mounting attacks.
02:07How concerned do you think the Iranians are?
02:10How concerned are they that the U.S. is about to really send in ground troops imminently
02:15whilst also talking up diplomacy?
02:19Yeah, it's definitely a possibility, but the Iranians aren't stupid.
02:23I mean, I war-gamed this scenario when I was in the military,
02:26and it always ends up the same way, that Iran gets pummeled by conventional military forces,
02:31but it always ends up controlling the Straits of Hormuz.
02:34They will know full well that President Trump does not have the appetite for a long war.
02:38He's got his midterms coming up.
02:40He also knows he was elected as a sort of president of peace,
02:44bringing war to an end rather than getting involved in enduring wars.
02:47And as soon as you put boots on the ground, it becomes incredibly vulnerable.
02:51What's most likely happening here, I believe, Paul,
02:53is that this is all. President Trump loves doing a deal,
02:56and you've got to have leverage if you're going to do a deal.
02:59Just the fact that these soldiers are being widely reported as going to the region
03:03will just sow a seed of doubt in the Iranian leadership's mind.
03:08They've withstood the air pounding,
03:09but boots on the ground is a very different matter.
03:12And that might just give President Trump some leverage if the talks continue,
03:16as we hope they will later on this week.
03:19And so is it really about the Straits of Hormuz?
03:21Is that something that these troops in the region or arriving in the region could be really focusing on?
03:28Well, if you look at, again, from a military perspective,
03:30the numbers, as we've just said, are relatively small.
03:33I think there's two options.
03:34One, we've war gained this before.
03:37Straits of Hormuz is a constant thorn in the side of the West,
03:40in particular America.
03:42It's a geographic choke point.
03:43Twenty percent of the global energy passes through there,
03:47and bluntly, it's very difficult to stop Iran continuing to hold that hostage,
03:52unless you invade Iran and actually secure a big tranche of land all the way on the Iranian shore,
03:59and then long-term secure that.
04:00Now, I think it's highly unlikely that America would want to do that.
04:04Wouldn't it require a lot more forces?
04:05More likely is that those forces are just about the right size to go to Karg Island.
04:11Probably without a map, it's difficult, but it's a couple hundred miles northwest up the Gulf
04:15from the Straits of Hormuz, and that's where the Iranians put most of their oil onto the tankers.
04:22It's an island.
04:22It's out slightly into the Gulf, slightly deeper water, so it can offload its oil,
04:27and therefore controlling that might put a constraint around Iran's revenue
04:33and could, therefore, add some more leverage.
04:36But they will be very vulnerable, the forces there, but it might be.
04:39That's one of the targets.
04:40Okay, Sean, very grateful for your expertise as ever.
04:43Many thanks indeed.
04:44Sean Bell there, retired Air Vice Marshal and Military Analyst.
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