00:00Well, Malihah Lodi is Pakistan's former ambassador to the United States and permanent representative to the United Nations.
00:08I think the fact that Pakistan's army chief has flown all the way to Tehran and has been involved for
00:13the last several hours in a dialogue with the top Iranian leadership indicates the fact that there is progress.
00:21That is also confirmed by the spokesman of the Iranian foreign ministry, who has said talks have reached a turning
00:28point.
00:29I think that's the expression he used. So I think on all sides, there seems to be cautious optimism.
00:35But we've been here so many times before, so I think one needs to take a more measured view and
00:41wait a little to see whether the positions of the two countries,
00:45which have been so far apart in recent months, have actually narrowed or not.
00:50Iran clearly believes that it still has leverage through its regional position and its influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
00:59How much bargaining power does Iran really have?
01:04Iran has played the long game. Iran has seen President Trump getting frustrated as well as desperate as domestic pressures
01:12mounted on him and his administration and with midterm congressional elections looming.
01:17So Iran has had the upper hand also because of its strategic leverage by its control of the Strait of
01:26Hormuz.
01:27So I think Trump was, you know, Trump is never prepared to play any long game.
01:31So therefore, I think the Iranians read him correctly and have waited it out and come to a point where
01:39Trump clearly wants a deal,
01:41doesn't want to go back to a war or renewal of military hostilities.
01:45So that's where we are right now.
01:47As an international affairs expert, I must put it to you that President Trump alternates, doesn't he,
01:52between threats of military escalation and support for diplomacy then.
01:57I mean, does that create leverage or simply, I guess, the power of uncertainty?
02:03I think uncertainty more than leverage because it also sends mixed signals.
02:10And if you're trying to build some degree of confidence, because obviously you need some trust as you negotiate,
02:18even if you're negotiating with your enemy, that approach doesn't help.
02:23But I think President Trump seems to think that it does.
02:27It builds pressure from his point of view.
02:30But he should have seen by now that all the negative things, all the threats and ultimatums he's issued has
02:37not forced the Iranians to surrender.
02:39It hasn't in the past and it won't in the future.
02:43Pakistan, as we've seen, has acted as the peacemaker, perhaps, in all of the discussions, the key intermediary.
02:55Why is that?
02:56Why has Pakistan come into prominence?
03:00Why has Islamabad become acceptable to both Washington and Tehran?
03:05Well, one, because it has very good relations with both capitals, Washington as well as Tehran.
03:11Both parties have faith in Pakistan's neutrality.
03:17Also, Pakistan has very high stakes because it has a great deal to lose if the war continues.
03:24The war is on Pakistan's doorsteps.
03:26Iran is a neighbor.
03:28Also, Pakistan's economy will be very badly affected if there's a prolonged conflict for obvious reasons.
03:35The price of oil will go up, oil supplies as well as LNG supplies will be affected.
03:42And that will put a lot of pressure on an economy which is already very fragile and in an IMF
03:49program.
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