00:00Yeah, I mean, you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz there. It's closed. Maybe there'll be more sea closures, as you
00:05alluded to, just there with the Red Sea.
00:08Let's just look at where we are right now. I mean, thousands of people have been killed these last five
00:12weeks, most of them in Iran and Lebanon.
00:15There's been damage, physical damage to some GCC countries, severe damage to the economies of not just the GCC, but
00:23the entire world.
00:24I mean, at this stage, what can the U.S. frame as a victory and walk away from with some
00:31face being saved?
00:33We can't undo the past. I don't think the U.S. should have ever talked about regime change.
00:37I mean, we obviously want to see a regime change, but that was really never in the cards to actually
00:42force one.
00:42I can't think of a time in history where you force a full regime to change based on air power
00:48alone.
00:48And I think the intelligence community said it wasn't going to happen. And we can see it's not.
00:53Yes, it's been modified substantially with the decapitation strikes, but that one I don't think should have ever been essentially
01:01shelled as an objective.
01:02The other parts, we have seen further degradation of the nuclear program.
01:07There will be questions if we leave without recovering the highly enriched uranium.
01:12So I think that's still on the table for a potential operation.
01:16But we have degraded it, both from the 12-day war and from many strikes on other facilities during this
01:25Operation Urge Fury.
01:28That, I think, is going to be a question.
01:32But the others, like the degradation of their ballistic missile program, their suicide drone, not as degraded as we had
01:40hoped, but certainly substantially reduced.
01:43Their ability to manufacture both of these and especially their Air Force and Navy has been essentially decimated.
01:50So I think that is what the U.S. should hang its hat on, very verifiable empirical reductions.
01:57I think we should also stop talking about the complete elimination since that almost never happens anywhere in combat.
02:04And it only leads us to be able to question that assessment in the future when they launch anything at
02:10anyone.
02:10But I think the United States can claim that as a strategic and certainly a tactical success.
02:17But the question is, if we leave the Strait of Hormuz open, most people are considered that a strategic failure.
02:25So that is where I think the focus of effort is right now.
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