00:00Israel and the United States may have believed their military campaign against Iran would be brief,
00:06possibly lasting only a few days after strikes began in late February.
00:10But a political analyst says it's evident now that they have underestimated Iran's preparedness and reaction.
00:21It is quite evident that the U.S. and Israel thought it might be a very short war.
00:26We might call it a limited war, which means they go in and it takes three or four days and
00:32Iran will kind of capitulate and answer with symbolic forces.
00:37This is certainly not the case, as we can see now after two weeks.
00:40So they have miscalculated the reaction of Iran, which obviously has prepared for that day for more than 40 years.
00:48One can, of course, win a war like that militarily, but the costs are rising every single day,
00:54not only when it comes to personnel and for money, but in particular the political price will be extremely high
01:00because the Americans have lost the myth being the supreme power in the Gulf region.
01:05As the war's economic and geopolitical consequences unfold rapidly,
01:10Trump has appealed for international support to help the U.S. secure the Strait of Hormuz,
01:15one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.
01:17But so far, the response has been muted.
01:20That comes even after Trump referenced possible implications for NATO allies.
01:26Trump has threatened NATO with consequences if NATO does not support U.S.
01:33There is a very clear answer.
01:34It is not an Article 5 cause because it wasn't America who had been attacked, but U.S. attacked Iran.
01:40Therefore, Article 5 doesn't count.
01:42But what can happen is that some member states decide on a unilateral basis to go in with the Americans,
01:49like the British, for example, by sending minesweepers and drones.
01:52So we will see a lot of unilateral decisions of member states of NATO, but not a NATO action as
01:57such.
Comments