- 1 day ago
The government has cut the excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre, a move that comes as the West Asia war impacts global fuel supply and logistics.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news,
00:05newsmakers talking points. Friday night ahead of the weekend, a big story. The Modi government
00:09has slashed excise duty on petrol and diesel. Prices will remain the same. Are we now effectively
00:19admitting that we are in the worst oil crisis since the 1970s? What are India's realistic
00:25options? Will Trump end or extend war? Among my guests will be one of the world's top energy
00:31experts. We'll have lots as always on the show tonight. But first, it's time for the nine
00:37headlines at nine. The Modi government slashes excise duty on fuel by rupees 10 to reduce
00:44pressure from oil marketing companies. But retail fuel prices to remain the same. The opposition
00:50questions the timing of the decision, says it is linked to elections. Prices they claim
00:56will rise once elections are over. The Prime Minister holds a key meeting with Chief Ministers
01:03to assess the impact of the West Asia war and states' preparedness. Big focus on the meat,
01:09on ensuring fuel supply and containing inflation, improving logistics.
01:18The government makes it official. There will be no lockdown as rumours spread amidst the crisis.
01:24Say lockdown reports were false and misleading. Center reassures on energy stocks. Says no need
01:31to panic. There's no shortage. But the markets aren't buying it. Bloodbath on Dalal Street after
01:39two sessions of gains. The Sensex nosedive nearly 1,700 points. Nifty down by about 400 points.
01:47Nine lakh crore of investor wealth wiped out in a day.
01:54On the last day of his deadline, Donald Trump extends the pause on attacks on Iran's energy
02:01infrastructure for another 10 days. Claim Iran asked him for seven. He gave them 10. Iran says
02:07they're not negotiating with Trump. Shocking BVIP mindset on display in Karnataka.
02:15MLAs demand four free IPL tickets each. Sources say state cricket body will also give the MLAs a
02:21separate stand to watch the matches along with free tickets.
02:26In a tragic incident from Jammu and Kashmir, at least seven people dead in an avalanche near
02:31the Zozeela pass. Several vehicles still trapped under the snow. Rescue ops are underway.
02:3835-year-old rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah takes oath as Nepal's youngest Prime Minister.
02:44Shah's rastriya swatantrata party decimated all traditional parties in the last general elections.
02:52In an embarrassment for the Pakistan Super League, the ball changes colour mid-game,
02:57turning pink and then red due to the dye coming off the players' gates.
03:12But the stop story that we are breaking this evening, the Prime Minister has held a virtual
03:17meeting with all the chief ministers to assess the impact of the West Asia war, particularly
03:23on fuel supply. Remember, the ongoing conflict has affected fuel supply in several parts of the
03:30country. So that was a primary focus. Inflation concerns and logistic arrangements were also
03:36discussed. Many of the chief ministers provided information on the state situation and preparations,
03:42expressed their concerns over the supply disruption of fuel. The election-bound state
03:49chief ministers stayed away because of the model code of conduct. Joining me now, Aishwarya Paliwal.
03:56Aishwarya, yesterday it was an all-party meeting that was held in the national capital. Now you've had
04:03the chief ministers being met by the Prime Minister. Is there a recognition that this is now a major
04:10crisis? Yes, no energy lockdown, but the supply disruption requires urgent solutions. Is that the message
04:17that was given? Definitely, Rajdeep, you know, one of the things that the government is looking at,
04:22rather let me just put it very simply, that the two things that the government at the moment is
04:26looking at, first and foremost, they are making sure that there should be no panic. And this was
04:31the clear message that was being sent out to the chief ministers. You need to make sure that the
04:35administration is on its toes. You also need to make sure that the rumor-mongering that we are seeing
04:40taking place, not just in one place, but in several places across the country, that needs to stop now.
04:45The second thing that the government has very clearly, Prime Minister Modi himself, has very
04:49clearly told the chief ministers that you need to be assured that the Indian government is doing
04:53everything. There will be no lockdown. And also, the rationing that we are seeing, it will reduce
04:57in days to come, because in the next four to five days, we will see at least five lakh tons
05:02of LPG
05:03coming onto the Indian show. So that kind of assurance has been given. And the chief ministers have now
05:08been asked that you need to be alert. If there is any kind of rumor-mongering, you need to stop
05:12it
05:12as soon as possible. But what is the government saying, Aishwarya, about the fuel stocks itself?
05:18Yesterday, they said there's no need to worry. We have enough buffer stocks for 60 days.
05:23But there seems to be somewhere concern, because obviously, with elections coming up,
05:28and LPG shortages in some parts of the country, possibly because of panic buying,
05:33because of hoarding and black marketing, what steps is the government going to take to curb that
05:38black marketing and hoarding? What is the prime minister or the chief minister saying?
05:44Well, there are two things at the moment, Rajdeep, that they are looking at. First and foremost,
05:48the crackdown that needs to happen. They are now asking people that in case you do know of people
05:52who are blackmailing you, people who are hoarding, that those people now need to come forward,
05:57complaints need to be filed. The government is now also making sure that the refineries, that production
06:01also, in fact, let me tell you, has increased over the past four days. So, more LPG is being produced
06:07in our nation. That's something that data-wise has now been given to the different states. The
06:11government is saying that we are making sure that the imports that we are getting, we get them sooner,
06:16then later, and also making sure that the refineries now are also producing more LPG domestically.
06:22That has been the focus of the petroleum ministry over the past 48 hours.
06:25Aishwarya Paliwal joining us with those details. Appreciate you joining us. Now, it is very clear
06:31that we are in a major fuel supply crisis. This is not just India, but across the world. This is
06:37a
06:37global oil shock triggered by the West Asia war and Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz.
06:44India today decided, or the Modi government decided, that one solution was a sharp excise duty cut on fuel
06:52prices. Both petrol and diesel cut by rupees 10. The opposition, though, is questioning the timing,
06:59saying that it is with an eye for elections. And once the elections are over at the end of April,
07:04expect a hike in fuel prices. Take a look at just why the Modi government had little choice
07:11but to cut excise duties.
07:18As the West Asia war continues to escalate, there is a massive fuel tax relief by the government.
07:25But here's the twist. Don't expect cheaper fuel just yet. The government has slashed excise duty on fuel.
07:32Levy on petrol down from 13 to 3 rupees per litre and diesel levy cut to zero.
07:40So why was the move taken? The world has been witnessing a global oil surge due to the West
07:46Asia war, due to Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The rising crude oil prices and weakening rupee
07:53hurt oil companies, and this move will ease oil marketing companies' stress.
07:59But there is no change in pump prices. Instead, the cut in duties is aimed at providing relief to oil
08:06companies, bleeding from rising crude costs and a weakening rupee. The big takeaway,
08:12while crude has surged from $70 to nearly $122 per barrel, fuel prices in India have not gone up.
08:20Now compare that with India's neighbourhood. Fuel prices are up over 30% in Sri Lanka,
08:26nearly 25% in Pakistan, around 6.6% in Nepal. India, along with Bangladesh, stands out for holding the
08:35line.
08:36Zooming out globally, prices have surged over 30% in the United States, 23% in China, around 17 to
08:4418%
08:45in Germany and France, and 6.4% in Australia. A global spike that India is, for now, cushioning.
08:54The decision to slash the exercise duty on fuel came after a late-night meeting chaired by Prime Minister
09:00Narendra Modi on Thursday, with clear instructions to protect the common man from global oil shocks.
09:32Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said,
09:34While the world is seeing fuel prices jumped from 20% to 50%, India has chosen to absorb the shock.
09:41But the opposition is still not convinced.
10:03No relief at the pump yet, but no pain either. India's balancing act is holding for now.
10:16So let's put this in perspective. Are we now in the worst oil crisis since the early 1970s?
10:23In fact, possibly far greater in terms of its scope and scale.
10:27What are India's realistic options? How should India be countering it?
10:31Can the global economy cope with the crisis? Will it extend to fertilizer or food prices as well?
10:37My special guest is one of the world's renowned energy experts. Let's turn to him.
10:44And amidst the unprecedented volatility in oil prices, joining me now is a very special guest,
10:51joined by Dr. Anas Alaji. He is one of the leading energy experts in the world.
10:57He joins me from Dallas, Texas. Appreciate, Dr. Alaji, you joining us.
11:01I want to turn to a tweet that you put in not too long ago. It says,
11:06if this war doesn't end soon, the global economy would collapse by early May.
11:11What exactly are you suggesting could happen in the next six weeks?
11:18Here is the problem that very few people are paying attention to.
11:22While all the focus is on oil and gas, there are too many things that are not oil and gas
11:29at all.
11:31So if we talk about helium, for example, 35% of the world's helium is traded through the Hermes Strait.
11:40You cannot make computer chips in general. You cannot make computer chips or semiconductors
11:45without helium. And companies are running out of storage. Yes, they can recycle helium,
11:51but that's not good enough. And you still need it for medical uses anyway. But we have,
11:56so that's the industrial sector of Asia basically is gone. This is one of the problems for South Korea,
12:03for Taiwan, and for China. This is a serious problem. Because I said 35% globally, but really,
12:11when you look at Asia, it is more than 90%. And then you move on to fertilizers, and that hits
12:18the
12:18agricultural sector. Then you move to NGLs, which include LPG, which as you know, India is suffering
12:24from that right now. You are hitting several sectors because LPG is used not only for cooking,
12:31but it's used in many industries. So you are hitting the industrial sector in Asia too. And then you are
12:37hitting all the food supplies, and you are affecting the supply chain. And then you have all those ships
12:44that have been stranded. We need the shipping. We need those ships basically to transport goods and
12:48services. They got stuck there. So you add all of this together, and we have no replacement,
12:54you can see where we are heading. We've already seen over 20 countries basically suffering,
12:59and we are only a few weeks into this. So what you're saying is that if this war continues,
13:07in the worst case for another month or more, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked,
13:12a strait through which 20% of the global oil supply moves, you're saying it will have an impact not
13:18just on fuel prices or oil prices, it will also affect fertilizers, food prices, and thereby create
13:26a global crisis. That's the crisis you're speaking about. Am I correct? Absolutely. And it is larger than
13:33any crisis we have seen in our lifetime. So even if you go back to the 70s, or you go
13:39back to the
13:40invasion of Kuwait or invasion of Iraq, this is larger than anything we've ever seen because
13:45the Hormuz rate has never been closed. This is the first time we've seen something like this.
13:51And the bigger issue that people are not paying attention to is that once the supply chain,
13:59aside from all the direct impact, we have the indirect impact coming through the supply chain.
14:04Once that supply chain is affected, we have serious problems. Because as you know, for example,
14:09phones or cars are manufactured in several countries. So one piece of that car or one piece of that phone,
14:18basically, that cannot be made, the whole supply chain will stop.
14:22So this is a bigger supply disruption than what you've seen ever, you're saying. You're also saying
14:28it's far greater than the oil shock of 1973. And we're seeing though, the kind of oil price volatility,
14:38we're seeing them rising from $130, $140 per barrel, then coming down for a while, rising again,
14:45depending on announcements. Do you believe that this oil price volatility will continue as long as the
14:51war is there, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked? And how bad could it get in terms
14:56of just oil prices?
14:58Let me point out that the Trump administration and President Trump himself is manipulating those prices.
15:05So they are manipulating them through statements by telling people, look, the war is going to end in a few
15:11days.
15:11And then a few hours later, we know that this war is going to linger. And then the Secretary of
15:17Energy is saying,
15:19look, we have the US Navy basically escorting oil tankers, prices dropped by $18, only to find out a few
15:25hours later, that was a lie. And that was the tweet was deleted. So we have manipulation of the market,
15:34but through those statements and other things.
15:36No, you're making a very serious charge, sir. Dr. Anani, you're saying the US president or someone
15:41close to him is manipulating oil prices?
15:44I am not the only one, by the way. There are thousands of people who are writing this,
15:49and there are senators and congressmen who are saying it. So I am not the only one who is saying
15:53it.
15:53This is a very general conviction right now in the United States. You see it even from congressmen talking about
15:59it.
16:00But is there any alternative to taking the oil through the Strait of Hormuz? Saudi Arabia's east-west
16:08pipeline can bypass Hormuz, but it has limited capacity. UAE exports some oil through Fujairah,
16:16but without using the Strait. Are you saying that without the Strait of Hormuz being completely
16:24accessible to ships, there is no solution to what you're saying is a doomsday scenario in early May?
16:31We don't have alternatives at all, and we should not talk about alternatives. We are talking about
16:37mitigation. When we talk about mitigation, we have mitigation. That was the fastest and the largest
16:43mitigation came in from Saudi Arabia. They diverted the oil from east to west, and we estimate that to be
16:50at four million barrels right now. We want to see whether it will increase or not. So that is a
16:56mitigation. And I would like to point out that this mitigation should be compared to zero, not compared
17:03to pre-crisis exports, because that's a mistake. Because without those pipelines, the exports would be
17:10zero. So it should be compared to zero. So this is a credit to Saudi Arabia. On the other hand,
17:16we have
17:16the pipeline from Habsham Field near Abu Dhabi to Fujairah that, before the crisis, it was carrying
17:24about 1.2 million barrels a day. The capacity is 1.5, so it can add about 300,000. Then
17:31we have another
17:31one in Iran that, with capacity of 1 million barrels that goes from the north to the south, and it's
17:40probably carrying about 300,000 to 500,000 right now. Then we have the mitigation coming from Iraq
17:45by exporting from the north through Turkey. It's about 200,000. So in total, probably we are talking
17:51about 5 million coming out of those countries. And then we have the release of the strategic petroleum
17:57reserves by the IEA, 400 million. And of course, the United States within that, they are going to release
18:07172 million barrels. Notice the following. Notice that, as they mentioned those releases, prices went
18:15up. They did not go down. And the reason why, because while President Trump and others are telling us
18:22this is going to, the war is going to end soon, when they released that SPR, there were two messages.
18:28The first message is, when you release the largest release in history, you are telling everyone,
18:33look, we are in crisis. So the market panicked. And the second problem is, while they were talking
18:39about early days and the war will end, the release of the strategic petroleum reserve is over three
18:44months. So this gives the impression to everyone that this war is going to be long, and therefore,
18:50people adjusted their risk and prices went up. In addition to that, we have mitigation coming from
18:57airlines canceling flights. So we have what we call demand destruction or demand decline. We have
19:02countries basically conserving energy. We have countries blocking their borders
19:08to exports of petroleum products, et cetera. So we have a decline in demand, too. So you add all of
19:15those together, you add the mitigation from pipelines, the strategic petroleum reserves,
19:20and decline and destruction in demand. And that will add up probably about to nine, 10 million barrels.
19:27We are still missing 10 million barrels. And as long as we are missing that, prices will continue to go
19:33up.
19:33You know, as I said, you're predicting a very grave situation. But you've also interestingly tweeted that
19:39the European Union's dependence on Russian gas is increasing. Hormuz crisis has put Europe back in
19:45Putin's grip again. India is looking now to get its oil, at least part of its oil back from the
19:51through Russia. Donald Trump had tried to impose sanctions effectively on countries that would
20:01trade with Russia. Do you believe all of that is in the past that Russia becomes now, in a sense,
20:07the big gainer from what's happening? And will Russian oil become a substitute for the oil that was
20:12otherwise passing through the Strait of Ormus? The biggest winner of all is Trump and the United
20:19States, followed by Putin. And then some other countries that are very far away, they benefit from
20:26this, just like Guyana, Brazil, Australia, for example. But the largest winners are clearly Putin and
20:34Trump. Trump is the largest winner. Now, I understand people are pointing out that...
20:38Trump is the largest winner because of the dependence on US oil. And Putin is the other
20:43winner because, again, he's able to control gas and oil. Am I correct?
20:48Correct. But there is an angle to that. I think the audience need to understand that, yes, the United
20:54States is going to suffer in the short run, but the benefits are mostly in the long run. So we
20:59have to
21:00pay attention to timeframes. But we got to look at this in one of two ways. So either you look
21:06at this
21:06war as a war against Iran for its nuclear program. So that's one way to look at it. Or you
21:13look at this
21:14war against Iran as part of the global changes that we've been seeing recently that include the trade
21:21wars, the tariffs, the sanctions, Venezuela, Panama Canal, the Red Sea, and Greenland. If you put it
21:28within that concept, you have a completely different view about what's going on, regardless whether it
21:33is against Iran or Iran is just part of that big puzzle. The main beneficiary of the United States
21:41on several fronts, because the United States wanted the chip making, the computer chip making, to move
21:47to the United States. They want the semiconductors to be made in the United States, not in South Korea,
21:51not in Taiwan, not in China. So they achieved that objective through blocking the helium out of it.
21:58And then when it comes to methanol, for example, that's another issue. The United States is the
22:04largest producer of helium, the largest producer of methanol, the largest producer of oil, the largest
22:11producer of natural gas, the largest producer of LNG, and all of them are blocked. All of them.
22:18Can I therefore ask you, what do you believe are the solutions for countries like India?
22:23China. Dr. Alaa Ji, what can India do? We've just seen today, India is of course trying to buffer,
22:30to in a way protect the consumer by ensuring that excise duty cuts are there. But that apart,
22:37is India's solution simply to diversify its oil basket? Is that the only solution as long as this
22:42war continues? Some ships have managed to come through the Strait of Hormuz, but clearly not enough
22:48for now. What are India's solutions? Anyone who follows me on X or Twitter for years, including
22:56Indian officials, they know that I've been calling for a massive increase in strategic petroleum
23:02reserves. This has been years going on, probably almost 10 years. I've been calling on India,
23:09this is not enough. If you want to grow the same way you are growing, you need to do exactly
23:14like China.
23:14China has 1.4 billion barrels of crude reserves right now. India has about only 100 million.
23:24So you can see the difference. Can you repeat that for our viewers? China and India?
23:32Yes. China has 1.4 billion barrels reserves. So India has about 100 million in strategic petroleum
23:42reserves, and then it has the rest, some in commercial reserves. But India needs to increase its reserves
23:49substantially. So I'm talking about at least a capacity of 400 million of strategic petroleum reserves
23:57of all kinds, not only crude, but everything else too. So this is really the main lesson out of this
24:03India's experience. India, rightfully, has strategic reserves for fertilizers because of the dependence on
24:13the agricultural sector. They need to follow that steps, basically, and do exactly that for oil and other
24:20products. So that's number one. Number two, we do have a problem balancing the portfolio of imports.
24:27So we talk about balancing the portfolio of imports. We talk about a portfolio of LNG or oil. You have
24:35to
24:35create that portfolio where you minimize the risk of interruption with the lowest cost possible. You have
24:43to have those two together. What happened historically sometimes is they really lean toward the lowest cost at
24:51the expense of energy security. And that should not happen again. So they really should balance both energy
24:59security and the cost. And yes, it will be a little bit higher. But if you look at the cost
25:04of what
25:05happened just in the last four months, it's tremendous because they shifted imports from Russia to the Gulf and
25:15the United States only for the Gulf to be closed. And now they have to pay for the same Russian
25:30crew,
25:31for the same ships, threefold increase, threefold. So instead of paying $40 or $45 for that oil, they are
25:40paying $110. But that's because, of course, that's because, of course, the fact is, Dr. Alaji,
25:49America made its trade, a trade deal with India conditional on India stopping to purchase Russian
25:55oil. You're saying India should have looked America in the eye and said, no, sorry, we are going ahead
26:00with Russian oil. Am I correct? I said that publicly, even on several stations in India. That's
26:07absolutely the case. I think that should not have happened because, again, what we are going to see,
26:15and this is the second point that it's not only building that strategic petroleum reserve,
26:19but countries right now are moving toward tying energy to national security. And once you tie energy
26:28to national security, what you can tell the other country, look, this is my national security. You
26:32cannot dictate things over my national security. You want to talk about trade, commercial trade,
26:38freedom, et cetera, freedom of trade, that's fine. But when it touches my national security,
26:43there is no negotiations over that. So tying that inner security, it's a dangerous approach,
26:49by the way. But look, China did it. The European Union is doing it right now. Canada is doing it
26:54right
26:55now. And it seems that India has no choice but to do that. That will justify many things because
27:01economists might come in and say, look, subsidies are bad. Giving tax breaks are bad. There is negative
27:07effect, et cetera. But once you tie it to national security, no one can make those arguments anymore
27:13because it is national security. In conclusion, therefore, from what I gather,
27:18the long-term lesson is to ensure energy security. This Hormuz disruption has shown the irrepressibility
27:28of maritime choke points, the practical limits of pipeline alternatives, and the vulnerabilities
27:35of supply chains. So what you're telling us is every country now has to link energy security to national
27:41security, not be bullied into making short-term arrangements, but focus on building
27:48energy security for the future. Am I correct? Let me put it, let me put it differently. The U.S.
27:57literally weaponized LNG NOI. Literally. So why other countries cannot do the same?
28:05Okay. Very well put. You're saying the U.S. has weaponized their energy security.
28:11Why can't other countries do the same? Correct? No, no. Weaponize their exports. Weaponize their LNG exports and
28:19oil exports. Because that's the pressure on India. That was the pressure on the EU, telling the EU,
28:25look, if you don't give me Greenland, I'm going to cut off LNG exports. That's weaponizing LNG. Okay. Okay.
28:33And you're saying, therefore, that the time has come, therefore, to relook and have a paradigm shift
28:38in how we look at the entire energy security paradigm that countries have created for themselves,
28:46including India. That's one big lesson in a way from what's happened in the last few weeks. As I said,
28:54you've given us a potential doomsday scenario that should worry us. And hopefully sometime the sheer
29:00shock of what's happened in the last four weeks will wake up the world. Can I ask you,
29:05in conclusion, what's the worst that you think oil prices could go up to?
29:11I mean, there is no limit for oil prices until we reach the level of demand destruction.
29:16And based on our modeling, again, this is just modeling. This is not anything else. It could be
29:22modeling basically can give you kind of weird results. But our modeling basically, if the average for
29:27Brent goes to 160, that's where we see demand destruction. Will prices go above 160 for short
29:36term? Yes. But 160 where we see the demand destruction.
29:41Okay. I'm really grateful that you've joined us there from Dallas Textus on this show today,
29:48because Dr. Alaji, you've given us, in a way, a real big picture, as well as potential solutions
29:55to this global crisis. Appreciate you joining me here on the show today.
30:03Okay. Let's turn, though, to the ground reality, because politicians will take sides in a partisan
30:09debate. But what is the reality? The government continues to say there is no LPG shortage. The ground
30:15reality is, well, take a look. India today's reporters conducted a comprehensive reality check, visiting
30:23multiple fuel stations distribution points to assess the availability firsthand. Here's their
30:29on-the-ground-on-the-ground report.
30:49A day after images of panic buying of fuel flooded social media from several cities across India,
30:56India today's reporters hit the ground for a reality check.
31:02In Kolkata, petrol and diesel availability were found to be normal. But auto rickshaws running on
31:09LPG are facing problems.
31:13Hyderabad early in the week saw long体��
31:15in the battle of war a road ahead of the war. The only
31:18things to be that we've got the bags of fuel. That means
31:21that you have to stay for the night. What do
31:23you have to stay for the strong, too? You have
31:23to stay for the night and sleep, not to be safe. Whether you
31:26have to stop or not, this can't be done at the moment. I have
31:28to stop the gas in the hour. The gas
31:30in the morning has to stop us. We have
31:32to stop the gas in the morning. The gas
31:33here at the gas has been lost. The gas
31:33right now has to stop me, right? The gas
31:36can't last time if we have any gas on the gas.
31:38Hyderabad earlier in the week saw long queues at some patrol pumps.
31:42But on Friday, the queues were gone.
32:08In the national capital, some gas agencies like this one in Jahangirpuri saw long lines to book LPG.
32:37So I thought, I know what happened to Jahangirpuri, where did the cylinder come from?
32:41Jahangirpuri said, you go to Jahangirpuri, where did the cylinder come from?
32:48I'm reporting from one of the petrol pumps here.
32:51And there is a notice that says that petrol sales in containers is banned.
32:56And this is officially given out by the government of Tamil Nadu to all the petrol pumps to make sure
33:01that there is really no panic buying.
33:03I'm coming to you from a fuel station or a petrol bunk here in the middle of Bengaluru, where there
33:08is no panic buying as such.
33:10People are not queuing up like other cities.
33:13And there is ample amount of fuel stock, is what people are saying.
33:17Barring panic at some locations, petrol pumps are running normally for now.
33:22With Anirban Sinha, Abdul Bashir, Anaga Keshav, Nagarjun Dwarakhanath and Shushan Mehra, Bureau Report, India Today.
33:34Okay, as you can see, there's a mixed picture on the ground.
33:38But there is a mixed picture that we need to recognize.
33:42We can't say all is well.
33:44At the same time, we don't need to press the panic button.
33:49Okay, we're going to give you the top war developments in a moment.
33:53Remember, on the war front, there's been plenty that's been happening today.
33:57Including continuing bombings by Israel in the heart of Tehran.
34:03Let's play some of those visuals first that have been coming in from the war zones.
34:10We've been seeing continuous bombings that have been taking place in Tehran and importantly in Lebanon.
34:16Remember, in Lebanon, the continuous bombing has taken a heavy toll on lives there.
34:23At least 1,000 people have died, over 100,000 have been displayed.
34:30Just to give you a quick update, Donald Trump has postponed the attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure,
34:36he says, by 10 days until April 6th, claiming that the talks with Iran on a peace deal are going
34:42very well.
34:43So that's what Trump claims.
34:45Tehran, though, has said it is not satisfied with Washington's current proposals,
34:49describing them as unrealistic.
34:51Iran has left the door open for diplomacy, signaling that talks could move forward,
34:57but only if the U.S. adopts a more realistic approach to its demands.
35:02Iran's FM, Abbas Araqchi, while delivering a speech at the Emergency UN Human Rights Council session,
35:08said that the U.S.-Israeli aggression is brutally rootless,
35:11claimed that the attack on the school was a war crime that deserves punishment.
35:16The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops
35:21to the Middle East.
35:22If the Trump administration decides to send extra troops,
35:25it will significantly increase the number of combat soldiers U.S. has in the region.
35:30Israel has issued displacement orders for all residents of Lebanon
35:34living south of the Zarani liver near the border with Israel.
35:37Israel intensifying its ground invasion.
35:40Lebanon's health ministry reporting that more than 1,100 people have been killed
35:44in the Israeli attack since the 2nd of March.
35:47Well, looking at Lebanon, let's go straight across to Ashraf Vani,
35:51the only Indian reporter who is reporting from Lebanon at the moment.
35:55He joins us from South Lebanon.
35:57Ashraf, every day that you are reporting, that tale of destruction seems to carry on.
36:01Tell us the very latest.
36:03How many?
36:04Just give us a sense of the number of people who are totally displaced.
36:07Is South Lebanon now people just simply running away from there?
36:14Not, Rajdeep.
36:15All are not running away because there are so many people who can't afford to move away
36:19from their residences.
36:21Despite this ongoing bombing, they are not following the diktat of Israel.
36:25That is what I am seeing on the ground.
36:27There are some families who are sitting in the areas, in the villages, in the southern Lebanon,
36:33but most of them have already taken the shelter in somewhere else where they could afford,
36:39some of them in the hotels, in the safer zones of Beirut,
36:42some of them with the relatives in other parts of Lebanon,
36:45and most of them in the open.
36:48They are in the shelter homes now.
36:50Those are also shrinking across the Lebanon.
36:52Some of the Christian villages have opened their schools,
36:56their shelter homes for these displaced people from the South Lebanon.
36:59But the biggest misery is inside the Beirut because a major part of Beirut city is completely empty
37:08after the equation orders from IDF.
37:11And most of the displaced people are from the South suburb of Beirut,
37:15who in the day sometimes come to their homes, but then in the evening they leave
37:20because they did not know when and where they will be bombed.
37:24Today also, there was no let-off from the aerial strikes,
37:27not only in the southern Lebanon, but in the other vicinities of South Lebanon.
37:32We are getting reports this evening that a village was bombed by the aerial strikes near Nabatia,
37:39where at least eight people died, including some women and children,
37:44in that aerial strike on that particular house.
37:47As you said, the death toll has already crossed at 1100.
37:50So, it is not, it seems as a parallel as what the death toll is being recorded and told in
37:56the Iran.
37:57Okay, let me go to Pranay Upadhyay, who is joining me from Tel Aviv.
38:02Pranay, you heard from Ashraf there that the death toll continues to rise
38:06and Israel continues to strike both Tehran and Beirut.
38:10What are you picking up in terms of what is likely to now happen,
38:14these intensifying airstrikes that Israel is carrying out?
38:20It seems to be a coordinated operation, Razdeep, between United States and Israel
38:24because President Donald Trump apparently running out of time
38:28and in fact, he has apparently conveyed, you know,
38:31Trump administration has conveyed to Benjamin Netanyahu
38:33that you have a limited time and, you know, finish off whatever you want to execute.
38:37So, there is a tacit understanding between the both parties
38:40and that's why Israel has intensified its airstrike in different parts of Tehran.
38:45You know, just a while ago, I just read a message from the IDF,
38:49Israeli Defense Forces, that they are carrying out yet another wave of strikes
38:53in different dimensions of Iran, including the capital city of Tehran
38:57and they are trying to target the infrastructure related to IRGC,
39:02their military-industrial complex and their missile-building capabilities.
39:06Besides that, they are also conducting airstrikes
39:09and their operations in Beirut as well.
39:13I recently visited, you know, today, just a few hours ago,
39:16I went to the Lebanon border as well
39:17and there were certain, you know, rockets fired by Hezbollah's side.
39:22I saw those interceptions as well.
39:24So, certainly, you know, the situation remained tense in the region
39:29and the sirens did go up for some time today
39:33and, in fact, today, the Shabbat has started.
39:36This is a religiously very important part of a week
39:39and, in fact, the Shabbat has started
39:41and now there are apprehensions that there could be counter-strikes
39:45by Iran as well.
39:47Okay. Pranay Upadhyay, Ashraf, Vani, please stay safe.
39:51Appreciate both of you joining us from Beirut and Tel Aviv.
39:54Let me turn to my next guest
39:56because what next in this West Asia war?
39:59What does Donald Trump want?
40:00What does Netanyahu want?
40:02Will Trump end or extend the war after 10 days?
40:05And are the two leaders in agreement?
40:07A short while ago, I spoke to a very special guest.
40:10Listen in.
40:13So, where does the war in West Asia go from here?
40:16Joining me now is a special guest from Tel Aviv.
40:19Danny Sitronovich is with the Institute for National Security Studies
40:23based in Tel Aviv.
40:25Appreciate your joining us, Danny.
40:26We were going to actually speak to you yesterday
40:29and you then had to suddenly go into a bunker
40:31because there was an alarm.
40:33That's the kind of situation we believe exists on the ground.
40:36But give us a sense, Danny, of the mixed messages
40:39we are getting in the last 24 hours.
40:42The U.S. president says negotiations with Iran are going well,
40:45but in the last 24 hours, Israel's bombings on Tehran,
40:50the center of Tehran has only intensified.
40:53Make sense of those mixed messages for us.
40:56Well, we are waiting for President Trump to decide what he wants to do.
41:01President Trump can decide to expand the war
41:03and to use the Marines located in the Middle East
41:07to invade Uqar Island, to the three islands
41:10in the entrance of the Oumu Straits.
41:12Or he can attack the energy facilities within Iran.
41:18Or he can decide actually to end the war
41:20by reaching an agreement with Iran.
41:22The problem is that the Iranians won't make his life easier
41:26because the regime is more radicalized,
41:28is decentralized, and he has a sense that he's winning.
41:32So at the end of the day,
41:33Trump will have it very hard to reach an agreement
41:35by its own terms.
41:36And by expanding the war,
41:39it's actually increasing the economical pressure on the world.
41:43So I think everything depends on him.
41:46For your Israel point of view,
41:47we'll continue everything that Trump is doing.
41:49But Israel, since it's assuming that Trump may try to reach an agreement,
41:54are trying now to expedite everything that it can
41:56in order to strike Iran,
41:57that if Trump actually will stop the war,
42:00then we'll have major achievements
42:02in terms of hitting the conventional build-up of the Iranians.
42:07So what you're saying, Danny, is interesting.
42:09You're saying that even while Trump
42:11is possibly negotiating or trying to buy time,
42:15the Israelis are clearer.
42:17They are trying to take whatever advantage
42:19in the next 10 days
42:20to in a way decapitate or undermine
42:24or demolish the Iranian infrastructure.
42:27Am I correct?
42:29Yeah, definitely.
42:29Israel's stand is that we want to make sure
42:32that Iran won't pose a strategic threat
42:34to the state of Israel.
42:35For us, we're highly dependent on Trump.
42:38If we decide to stop, we'll stop.
42:40We'll start to continue.
42:41We'll continue.
42:41So we don't know what will happen.
42:43So until we get this decision,
42:44and definitely President Trump is thinking
42:47whether to reach an agreement with the Iranians,
42:49and definitely we saw his behavior in recent days,
42:51so we can assume that eventually
42:55Israel has in mind
42:56and that the campaign can stop
42:58in the next day to 10 days.
43:00We don't know.
43:01So until then, we have to make sure
43:03that we have actually hit
43:05the major targets in Iran itself,
43:08mainly connecting to the force bill of Iran
43:10and decapitating the senior leadership.
43:12So in that regard, I think
43:13this is where we stand right now.
43:15But you very interestingly tweeted, Danny,
43:18that the Iranians won't capitulate.
43:20I can't see a good outcome here.
43:24What do you mean by that?
43:26Well, at the end of the day,
43:28as we're turning back,
43:29what happened in the campaign itself
43:31that once the regime didn't collapse
43:33after the decapitation of Khamenei,
43:35we are entering a war of attrition.
43:37A war of attrition that actually
43:39the Iranian regime feel abulted.
43:42So actually, in order to stop this war,
43:44we need all to compromise
43:46with the same regime that you wanted to topple,
43:48all to expand the war in a way
43:50that all international community
43:51and international markets will suffer.
43:54So there are no good and bad options.
43:56There are bad and worse options.
43:57And President Trump and Hampton decide
43:59whether to reach an agreement
44:00while he's compromising with the Iranians,
44:03whether he's opening the Uru's straits
44:04or allowing some sort of waivers on the sanctions,
44:08or to expand the war in a way
44:10that you know you're going to start,
44:11you don't know how you're going to finish
44:13because of implication of this activity.
44:15So there are no good options right now
44:17for Israel and the U.S.
44:18in the war against Iran.
44:20When you're weaker
44:21and you're using your capabilities,
44:23your asthmatic capabilities,
44:25attrition will work for you,
44:26not against you.
44:27You're saying it's a war of attrition,
44:29which could mean what you're suggesting,
44:31this could be a long war
44:32if the negotiations don't work.
44:35Am I correct?
44:36Yeah, definitely.
44:37We're already entering tomorrow,
44:40the fourth week of the war itself.
44:42No end in sight.
44:44Despite the negotiation,
44:46it's obvious that,
44:47as I mentioned,
44:48it will be very hard to reach
44:49an agreement with the Iranians.
44:50So, yeah,
44:51we can find ourselves in a lengthy war.
44:53Again,
44:53it's always turning back
44:54to the same person
44:55that sits in the White House
44:56and needs to decide what to do.
44:59But, yes,
45:00we can find ourselves
45:01war ending tomorrow,
45:02if Trump will decide,
45:03or war ending with two or three months.
45:06Everything depending on him,
45:07I think we have to be prepared
45:08for all options.
45:09Danny,
45:09you're saying that it all rests
45:11on what Donald Trump does.
45:12But as I said at the very outset,
45:14we're getting mixed messages
45:15from the White House.
45:16He speaks about negotiations going well,
45:18and yet more troops of the U.S.
45:20are being sent into the region.
45:22There's possibility of boots on the ground.
45:24Do you see any of those boots
45:26on the ground solutions working,
45:28possibly trying to capture
45:29a couple of islands
45:30in the Persian Gulf?
45:32Do you see any of that
45:33actually happening?
45:35Well,
45:36it definitely can happen.
45:37And there is a reason
45:38why the Americans
45:39brought thousands of troops,
45:42marines to the region.
45:43I'm not saying
45:43they're going to use them,
45:44but definitely they want
45:45to have the ability to use them.
45:47The thing is that
45:48even if the U.S.
45:49will take the Khag Island
45:50and take the islands
45:51in the U.S. Straits,
45:53Iran won't capitalize.
45:54It will just expand the war,
45:56and it will be very hard
45:57to defend the troops themselves.
45:59So, also,
46:00the invasion,
46:01the grand invasion,
46:02is not a silver bullet solution
46:04to the problem
46:04that we have in Iran.
46:05This is a problem that we have.
46:06We don't have one act
46:08that actually will end
46:09everything, unfortunately.
46:10So,
46:11probably have to decide
46:12whether they're going that way,
46:14knowing that war can expand,
46:15or reach an agreement.
46:16As I mentioned,
46:17it would be very hard
46:18to reach an agreement
46:18with the Iranians,
46:19because unlike what
46:20President Trump thinks,
46:21the Iranians don't think
46:22that they are capitulating.
46:23Actually,
46:24they are winning.
46:24So,
46:25both options are possible,
46:27but I don't think
46:28that there are good outcomes
46:29from those options.
46:31You're saying
46:32something interesting.
46:33You're saying
46:33the Iranians believe
46:34they're not capitulating,
46:35they're actually winning,
46:37because you've also said
46:38in a recent post
46:40that the Houthis
46:41could also enter this war
46:43on behalf of Iran,
46:45block the Babel-Mandeb Strait,
46:47thereby also creating
46:49another possible chokehold.
46:51You're, therefore,
46:52that's,
46:52is that what you mean
46:53when you say
46:53if the U.S. decides
46:55to target an island
46:57in the Persian Gulf,
47:01the theater of war
47:03will only expand
47:04and Iran will look
47:05at the opportunity
47:06to target more and more
47:07areas across the Gulf.
47:10Yeah,
47:11and I have to say
47:12one thing about that.
47:13The Iranians
47:14have major success,
47:15unlike the 12-day war.
47:17They managed to have
47:18this war as a regional war.
47:20You have Hezbollah-Lebanon
47:21attacking our forces.
47:22You have the Shia-Tulishas
47:24in Iraq
47:24attacking the U.S. forces,
47:26Kuwait, Jordan,
47:27and even Israel.
47:28The Houthis
47:29didn't enter the war.
47:30They didn't enter the war
47:31because they have
47:31a lot of blues.
47:32I think that they are
47:33being threatened
47:33by the Omanis
47:34and the Saudis
47:35and that they are
47:36exhausted after
47:37two and a half years
47:38of conducting war
47:39against Israel and the U.S.
47:40But if the U.S.
47:42will expand the war
47:43and threaten Iran itself,
47:45then I think eventually
47:46in the terms of
47:47they want to be a part
47:48to defend what we call
47:49OVEC or the
47:50Axis Organization.
47:51Okay.
47:51Very, very plainly spoken.
47:53The interesting takeaway
47:54I'm getting from you
47:55is that you believe
47:56the Iranians
47:57far from capitulating
47:59believe they are winning
48:00and therefore
48:01will bargain hard
48:02over the next 10 days
48:04and a negotiated settlement
48:05as you said
48:06remains slim at the moment
48:07and we could be entering
48:08a dangerous war
48:10of attrition.
48:12Danny,
48:12for joining me there
48:14from Tel Aviv,
48:15appreciate
48:16Danny Sitronovich
48:17joining me
48:18on the show tonight.
48:20Thank you very much.
48:24Let's turn to tonight's
48:26Get Real India story.
48:27A story which comes
48:28from Maharashtra.
48:30A self-styled godman's
48:32empire is unraveling
48:33with explosive allegations
48:35of sexual exploitation,
48:37blackmail,
48:38a sprawling fraud network
48:41and today even rape charges
48:43being filed.
48:44Just who is this godman
48:46who now,
48:47self-styled godman
48:48who finds himself
48:49in the eye
48:50of a controversy.
48:51One of the biggest
48:52scandals that Maharashtra
48:53has seen
48:54in recent times.
48:55Take a look.
49:02A sex scandal
49:04involving a self-styled
49:05godman astrologer
49:06has rocked
49:07Maharashtra politics.
49:10The suspect,
49:11Ashok Karat,
49:12a former merchant
49:12navy officer,
49:13is accused
49:14of raping
49:15multiple women.
49:17The series of crimes
49:18was revealed
49:19accidentally
49:19when an office boy
49:20allegedly found
49:21Karat had sexually
49:22assaulted his
49:23pregnant wife.
49:24The staff member
49:25planted a spy cam
49:26inside Karat's office.
49:28When Karat learned
49:29about the recordings,
49:30he allegedly got
49:31a woman to file
49:32a complaint
49:32at the Shirdi police station
49:34accusing the staff
49:35of blackmailing her.
49:36The police investigation
49:38recovered several videos
49:39belonging to Karat.
49:41On the 17th of March,
49:42one woman filed
49:43a rape case against him.
49:45That same night,
49:46the crime branch
49:47arrested Karat
49:47from his bungalow
49:48in Nashik.
49:49Soon,
49:50names of more women
49:51and videos surfaced.
49:52So far,
49:53cases have been filed
49:54over sexual exploitation
49:55of eight women.
50:10The crime branch
50:12unit 1
50:12investigate
50:13and investigate
50:13Karat.
50:34More skeletons
50:36are coming out.
50:38Rupali Chakankar,
50:40the chairperson
50:40of the state
50:41commission for women
50:42who considered
50:43Karat her guru
50:43has stepped down
50:44after being accused
50:45of hampering
50:46the investigation.
50:48Karat had
50:49cultivated links
50:49with various
50:50political leaders,
50:51bureaucrats
50:52and IPS officers.
50:54Sources close
50:55to the investigation
50:56say he owns
50:56significant assets
50:57in Ahmednagar,
50:59Nashik and Pune
50:59districts allegedly
51:00worth 1,500 crore
51:02rupees.
51:28A Pune-based
51:29industrialist
51:30filed an FIRE
51:31against Karat
51:31accusing him
51:32of financial fraud
51:33worth 5 crore.
51:34According to the
51:35complaint,
51:36Jasud used to
51:37perform special
51:38rituals as advised
51:39by Karat.
51:39Jasud claims
51:40Karat allegedly
51:41travelled with him
51:42to 21 countries
51:43to conduct
51:44these rituals.
51:45The businessman
51:46has also claimed
51:47that he gave
51:47a luxury car
51:48worth 90 lakh
51:49rupees to Karat.
52:07A special
52:08investigation team
52:09headed by IPS
52:10officer Tejasvi
52:11Satpute is
52:12probing the case.
52:13Sources say
52:14the SIT is
52:15flooded with
52:15phone calls
52:16giving information
52:17on Karat.
52:19investigation is
52:20underway but
52:21still probe
52:22could lead to
52:23get more videos
52:24and that could
52:25lead to a big
52:26controversy in
52:27Maharashtra.
52:27Though the
52:28chief minister
52:28of Maharashtra
52:29has cleared
52:29that everything
52:31is in their
52:32hand,
52:33investigation is
52:33still going on
52:34but the question
52:35remains same
52:36who will take
52:37moral responsibility
52:38of this whole
52:39controversy
52:39especially when
52:40all leaders
52:41used to
52:42perform those
52:43occur rituals
52:44and all leaders
52:45were part of
52:45Ashok Kharaj
52:46every gathering
52:48in this
52:48sinar tahsil.
52:49With camera
52:50person Gopal
52:51Harnes is
52:51Omkar Babla
52:52India Today
52:52Nashik.
52:55That's
52:56Shaka from
52:56Maharashtra.
52:57Let me leave
52:58you today with
52:58two images.
52:59One is a
53:00nice positive
53:01one.
53:02Proud moment
53:03for our
53:03India Today
53:04reporting team.
53:05Our reporters
53:06Shriya Chatterjee
53:06and Arvind
53:07Ojaar won
53:08the prestigious
53:09Ramna Gohinga
53:10award in the
53:10civic category
53:11digital for
53:12exposing
53:13unregulated
53:14water use in
53:15the national
53:15capital.
53:16that impactful
53:17investigation which
53:19is fueling
53:19Delhi's growing
53:21water crisis.
53:23And Shriya also
53:24won an award
53:24for her
53:25investigation into
53:26the illegal
53:27immigration that
53:29takes place
53:30across the
53:31India-Bangladesh
53:33border.
53:42Thank you very
53:43much for joining
53:44us.
53:44You stay
53:45well, stay
53:46safe, good
53:46night, Shubhra
53:47country.
53:47Jaihin,
53:48Namaskar.
Comments