00:06hello and welcome
00:07good returns
00:09I am with you
00:10look at this very big deal
00:12in this crisis situation
00:15which is the middle east war
00:16which was created
00:17in every place
00:18the panic was started
00:21LPG, petrol, diesel
00:23and these prices
00:24were very good
00:25but there was a big
00:27announcement that
00:30the excise duty
00:31for both of these
00:34excise duty
00:3410-10 Rs.
00:35if you are
00:3710 Rs.
00:38the excise duty
00:39is 0
00:40and the petrol
00:41is 13 Rs.
00:42the excise duty
00:42is 3 Rs.
00:44but
00:45this is the route
00:46or this is just a back-up plan
00:48or this crisis situation
00:51or this panic situation
00:52is trying to deal
00:52so that
00:54people
00:55don't have to deal
00:56with it
00:56this is all
00:57to understand
00:58after effects
01:00what will happen
01:00and what will happen
01:01this is also
01:03to understand
01:03and if you have to understand
01:05all these points
01:07then
01:07who better than
01:08Sharath Kohli himself
01:09with us
01:10Sharath Kohli Ji
01:11welcome to Good Returns
01:15thank you so much
01:16thank you so much
01:16Anwar
01:17thank you so much
01:17thank you so much
01:17your good returns
01:21thank you sir
01:22thank you for joining us today
01:24thank you sir
01:25first we try to understand
01:26some situation
01:28what is inside the middle east
01:29the middle east crisis
01:30is now
01:31and
01:32what is this situation
01:35is going to happen
01:36what is the actual situation
01:38this time
01:39look
01:41this situation
01:42is one thing
01:43which has been controlled
01:45their name
01:46is Donald Trump
01:48Donald Trump
01:49and in their hands, they give them two days,
01:54then after that, they give them five days,
01:58they give them two days,
02:01Iran is not doing it,
02:03Iran has been doing it,
02:06they say that they give it a lot,
02:07they have got five tankers in Pakistan,
02:10they have got a lot,
02:11I don't know where they got a lot,
02:13where they got a lot,
02:15nd to rudd yudd ki situation abhi ornima kaffi fragile hai kaffi volatile ha kaffi fluid hai
02:22kuch bhi ho saktta hai kubhi ho saktta hai hamhen ya 6 april tuk ka inntadar kar bhi
02:26saktay hai pherunny hai kaha enerji plants pe hamla karne ke liyay ham abhi 6 tarik
02:32teak ke liyay wait karenghe iska wadab baqi ke hamlae jari rahenghe aur zada zaraoori
02:37baat yudd se bhi zada bharat ke liye ye hai que state of hormones ki kya paristit
02:41state of hormones, Iran
02:42has been in 5 countries
02:44in the list, which are the friends
02:46and which are the friends of China.
02:49So, look at that, there are two issues.
02:51One is the supply of supply.
02:52That is the supply of gas, that is the crude oil.
02:57The other is the price.
02:59So, supply of supply
03:01is the problem of
03:02quite a lot of solving.
03:03I will see it. I will see it.
03:04I will see it. I will see it.
03:06Because it is a very evolving situation.
03:11It is a very fluid situation.
03:12Every day, every day, every day,
03:15every day, every day,
03:16we have to do something else,
03:18we have to do something before we sleep,
03:19etc.
03:21Now, in India, the situation was that
03:23in the first of all,
03:24in the first of all,
03:26we had a $70 crude oil.
03:27Now, I am going to come to your main point.
03:30That is the main topic of your main point.
03:31It was the $60-$65 to be there.
03:34So, it was around $70 oil.
03:36It was around $70 oil.
03:38So, in the $60-$70 oil,
03:39the crude oil was running.
03:41These are our oil marketing companies.
03:43We will understand it.
03:44Indian oil,
03:45Bharat Petroleum,
03:46Hindustan Petroleum,
03:47one of the Niji companies.
03:48Nayara,
03:49Ambani Group,
03:50also have petrol pumps.
03:51Gio Reliance,
03:52also have petrol pumps.
03:53But now,
03:53I am going to talk about
03:55the government companies
03:56who are more
03:56than oil distribution market
03:58or the oil distribution market,
03:58or the petroleum and diesel
03:59of the oil market.
04:01I am going to talk about them.
04:03I am going to talk about them.
04:04They say that,
04:06although we have
04:07all the balance sheets
04:08not seen,
04:09we have 25,000 crores
04:10have been
04:10one-on-one
04:12as well.
04:13They have
04:14petrol,
04:15diesel,
04:16and people say,
04:17when you have
04:19$60,000
04:20reached,
04:20you have to pay less.
04:21we need the petrol diesel so we know that you know the price of this year.
04:28The price was not gone.
04:31The price of this 25,000 crore seems to be used.
04:36When we started 28 February and the crude oil price went up,
04:39it went up to $20 to $110, then $97, then $105, then it went up and down.
04:50The price of this 25,000 crore seems to be eroded.
04:55Because the price went up and the price went down.
05:00So it seems that the price was coming.
05:02The price was coming.
05:03The price was coming, when the oil market companies had to pass on to the world.
05:10The price was coming.
05:12We saw the price of this premium petrol,
05:14and the price was coming up.
05:22The price was coming up.
05:23The price was coming up again.
05:27The price was coming up.
05:39populous mood होता inflation को और
05:41बढ़ावा देता तो सरकार ने क्या किया
05:43कि सरकार ने जो उस पे
05:45excise लगती थी यह भी समझना होगा
05:47good returns के सारे followers
05:49पेट्रोल के जो दाम आप देते हैं
05:51उसमें excise होती है
05:53उसमें राजियों का वैट लगता है
05:54उसमें उसमें transportation cost लगती है
05:57और dealer की commission add होती है
05:59यह 4-5 चीज़े उसमें जुड़के
06:00आपको जो पेट्रोल की केमा दिखाई देती है
06:02तब दिखाई देती है
06:03तो सरकार ने अपने fiscal
06:05load पर एक hit लेने का सोचा
06:08और जो अब मुझे ऐसा लगता है
06:11कि जो calculations है ध्यान से सुनियेगा
06:13और निमा और सभी दर्शक ध्यान दे
06:15मुझे ऐसा लगता है कि
06:17यह जो hit जो सरकार ने 10 रुपे कम किया है
06:20यह इतना ही शायद
06:22इसको हम calculation करके देखे
06:24इतना ही शायद
06:25यह oil marketing companies
06:26या इसी के आसपास pass on करती
06:29तो अब oil marketing companies को
06:31यह pass on करने की जरुत नहीं पड़ेगी
06:33क्योंकि जो उनका नुकसान
06:35बड़ी हुई crude price से हो रहा था
06:37crude oil price से हो रहा था
06:38उसकी भरपाई अब उनके उपर
06:40यह excise ना लगके हो जाएगी
06:42तो आम आदमी की बात करें
06:44आम आदमी के लिए जो आप
06:45petrol diesel भरवाने जाते हैं
06:46आपके लिए शायद petrol pumper
06:48वो price में बदलाओ आता नहीं दिखेगा
06:51दिखेगा भी तो मामूली थोड़ा बहुत दिखेगा
06:53जो कि noticeable नहीं होगा
06:54क्योंकि calculation करके जो निकल के आता है
06:56पर मुझे लग रहा है कि कोई change नहीं दिखाए देगा
06:58तो सरकार ने अपने macro economic level पे देखे
07:01तो सरकार ने अपने fiscal जो target है
07:04उस पर एक hit लिया है
07:06fiscal load इसको हम कहते हैं
07:07उस पर लिया है
07:08बजाए इसके आम आदमी को pass on किया जाए
07:11बहुती अच्छा move है
07:13बहुती smart move है
07:14क्योंकि मैं व्यक्तिकत तोर पे एक अर्थचास्त्री होने के नाते
07:17मुझे पूरी उमीद थी कि किसी भी दिन
07:19अब petrol diesel की price की announcement हो जाएगी
07:22पर इससे पहले कि वो announcement होती
07:24और वो oil marketing companies
07:25red में चली जाती चली गई थी
07:28तो सरकार ने उसको
07:30neutralize करने का
07:31effect किया है उसको cushion देने का
07:33impact ये move किया है
07:35कि हम आपको cushion देते हैं आपको बढ़ाने की जुरुत नहीं है
07:38आपकी हम cost
07:39कम कर देते हैं जब भी मुनाफ़ा
07:41आपको maintain रखना है तो या तो
07:43आपका revenue बढ़े या आपकी
07:45cost कम हो revenue बढ़ना था
07:48petrol diesel की
07:49कीमते बढ़ने से और cost कम हो नीती
07:51सरकार के इस move से तो मुझे लग रहा है
07:53थोड़ा सा सरकार का जो macro economy
07:55level पे औरनिमा 4.3
07:57का target था fiscal deficit का
08:00कहीं वो थोड़ा बहुत प्रभावित
08:01हो सकता है क्योंकि
08:03बहुत फरक पड़ेगा और
08:05एक और बात मैं कहना चाहूंगा औरनिमा
08:07कि ये exercise का reverse करना
08:10ये हमारे लिए
08:12petrol diesel को GST में लाने का
08:14एक दर्वाजा खोल देता है
08:16पहली बात दूसरी बात मैं और करना चाहूंगा
08:18आज शाम को प्रधान मंत्री जी की
08:20राजियों के मुख मंत्री से
08:22साड़े छे बज़े मीटिंग है
08:23ओन लाइन मीटिंग है
08:25जूम मीटिंग है
08:26तो उसको ट्रैवल को cut shot करने के लिए
08:30पधान मंत्री जी जूम पे जुड़ेंगे
08:31पधान मंत्री जी मुझे लग रहा है
08:34कि राजियों के मुख मंत्रियों से कहेंगा
08:48इस पे वैट लगता है
08:49वैट राज लगाते हैं
08:50पधान मंत्री जी कहेंगे
08:51हमने अपना काम किया
08:52आप अपने अपने राज जी की
08:55balance sheet को देखते हुए
08:56अपने अपने राज की fiscal position को देखते हुए
08:58आप भी तयार रहे
09:00ये कम क्योंकि अगर लगातार
09:02this situation has become a new situation, and Trump's
09:05problems, if you have converted to the energy
09:09infrastructure, and you have to pay attention to it,
09:11then crude prices will look at you higher, and by the way,
09:15crude prices will look at you higher, and by the way, crude prices
09:16will look at you, I will not forget that if you have
09:19a 105-106 dollar price, then it is not 105-106,
09:24it will be 140-50 dollar. Yes, exactly.
09:27Because it's called the basket of basket, crude basket
09:30bola jata, it's refining cost, insurance, shipping cost,
09:34this is all that you have to do, that which you have to
09:35MCX price, that is not our landed price, our landed price
09:41is where it is, so it's possible to say that you have to
09:47distribution, which are black, which are black,
09:53and people who have to pay attention to that,
09:55that you have to pay attention to that, you have to pay attention to that,
10:41and people who are not paying attention to that,
10:55you can do your excise, because the excise is placed in centre, VAT is placed in Raja.
11:01Now, when we talk about those ministries, we will see that we have excise zero to do it.
11:11Now, you can also move something, because this is the subject of Raja.
11:15So, I think that the meeting is very important, and the rest of the people,
11:18and the rest of the people, you can see that the prices are less, because the excise will be higher,
11:25the oil companies will increase the price, but you will not show the impact of petrol pump.
11:30So, it will look like it, people will be better, because if this is not happening,
11:34then you will see that the petrol diesel is very fast, which has a cascading effect,
11:39it has a ripple effect, it will be used in the water, and you will see that inflationary effect
11:43from all the people.
11:45Yes.
11:47Sir, the whole conversation, the whole thing is that,
11:51the government has been able to absorb the energy of the people,
11:53which has been able to absorb the energy of the people,
11:57and as you said, the oil basket, which is our company,
12:02also has been affected by companies, it will also be positive,
12:04and it will also be started.
12:05If I talk about 3.5% of the people,
12:08it will also be affected by companies.
12:10It will also be affected by the people who have affected the economy.
12:12That's positive.
12:13But as soon as it goes, it will also be affected by the people who have affected the economy.
12:25It will also affect the economy of the government.
12:28It will also affect the economy of the government.
12:40that we will do surgery,
12:43so will the blood come or will not come?
12:45When we cut the skin,
12:47the blood will come.
12:48Look, the result of the result is the result.
12:51Central excise, the government's revenue pool,
12:53the direct value is the result.
12:54So, how can it be, how can it be?
12:56This is why I told you that the government
12:58has the 4.3% of the fiscal deficit
13:00target for this year.
13:02Maybe it will be a little haywire,
13:04but we have a leeway because the government
13:06wants to take it forward, 4% to take it.
13:08It is possible that the target is a little more
13:10but, you know,
13:11one of the English in English is called
13:14Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary action.
13:17This is the result of the world
13:19and it is a very productive and
13:20a very productive world.
13:23You have to take this in the world.
13:25You have to take this in the world.
13:25You remember that our fiscal deficit
13:28reached 4% and 7-8%
13:31to reach 4%.
13:32So, when it is a serious result,
13:34we have to keep these targets
13:35so much in the world.
13:37We have to pass them a little by-pass
13:38and we have to keep them going.
13:40Yes, it will be different.
13:41The government has to be different from revenue.
13:42The borrowing can be further.
13:43It can be different from capex.
13:45It has to be macro economic impact.
13:47But I think that
13:48what is the result of such a thing
13:52that every hour of the year
13:54changes the amount of the year.
13:54As I said in the beginning,
13:56every day changes the amount of the year.
13:57So, I think for the time being,
13:59it is a very calculated and smart move.
14:01The amount of the year will go forward,
14:03the amount of the year will go forward.
14:04What is the biggest problem?
14:06Why do you talk about long term?
14:08You talked about long term.
14:09You talked about long term.
14:10You talk about long term.
14:11You talk about long term.
14:12You talk about long term.
14:13Because they are going to change 3 times.
14:16I have not even known.
14:17I have not done it.
14:18We have made a big screen.
14:20It is called TMI.
14:22It is called TMI.
14:22Trump Mood Index.
14:23We have made it 2 April.
14:25We have made it.
14:25We have made it to commodity markets,
14:27stock markets, bilateral trade.
14:28We have all linked it all.
14:31We have already linked them.
14:31We have been very interesting.
14:32Today, the case of the trend today,
14:34is that ECG that you put in print out.
14:36You can see those like this.
14:38Like this.
14:38Today is coming fast.
14:40So, since Trump,
14:41and his following is a,
14:43I think it will be long term,
14:45so, this is why I'm not looking for long term
14:47when you have been in control.
14:49But I cannot say anything.
14:53I am sure that you will have to do this.
14:58Washington Post article, which I have heard from the first term in 30573.
15:06False claims!
15:08First year, 6 days, 2nd year, 16 days, 3rd year, 24th year, 49 days.
15:15I am sure that you don't have to do this.
15:22Let us take one day at a time.
15:27In the morning, the truth social will open up.
15:30In the morning, the truth social will open up.
15:32So, let's keep our fingers crossed.
15:36Just wait.
15:37I think that the government and the world governments,
15:40because of this,
15:41their long-term policy is very difficult.
15:44And I am sure that the people of the ministry have discussed this.
15:51There is no longer policy.
15:55Just take one day at a time.
15:56I feel like in the morning,
15:58there is a new birth.
16:01Thank you so much, sir, for joining us.
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