00:00The most common question we're getting asked at the moment is how long will this urea crisis last?
00:05How long will we be having these elevated prices that we're experiencing at the moment?
00:10I think one of the things that we can do as analysts is look back to history.
00:14And unfortunately, the news is not necessarily great.
00:16There's been really five major spikes in urea pricing since the 1970s.
00:22And they generally last pretty much a minimum of six months to 12 months.
00:26However, some of them have lasted considerable periods of time.
00:30So if we look at the energy crisis of the late 70s, early 80s, elevated prices remained for about five
00:38years.
00:39Hopefully, we're not in that situation.
00:40But we have written an article on episode3.net and in the ACM papers, which goes through our analysis.
00:47And interestingly enough, our peak price for urea actually wasn't at the moment.
00:52And it wasn't during COVID.
00:53When we take into account inflation, it was actually during the fuel crisis in the mid-70s where urea prices
01:01exceeded $1,800 a tonne when we take into account inflation.
01:06So basically, we're in it for the long haul from now because of the fact that things are not looking
01:12like they're going to get resolved anytime soon.
01:14We're going to have highly inflated prices at least this season.
01:19But we do have to start considering what we do for next year.
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