00:00How long is it going to take for things to get back to normal?
00:03The answer is probably a good three to six months.
00:06Just some of the lags involved in getting supply moving again, getting it to refineries
00:10and from refineries here to Australia, that's not going to happen overnight.
00:14This is a sort of conflict that is going to have a long tail.
00:18The real lesson in all of this and the real opportunity is one to embed much more resilience
00:24into this economy and this is a much more shock-prone world and this sort of stuff is I think
00:31increasingly
00:32being accepted by a lot of businesses as just a BAU operating environment.
00:40One positive around all of this is that the jumping off point to face into the Uranium
00:45conflict was a low unemployment rate, so basically full employment and GDP growth that was actually
00:51pretty solid.
00:51So that's something which is I think a positive.
00:55It's the inflation issue that's the challenging part of all of this.
00:59Pre the Middle East conflict that was all just going to happen through higher interest rates.
01:04Now it's going to happen not just through higher rates but also because there's a shock to real
01:09incomes and one of the key sort of drivers and the fundamental thing around all of this
01:14is just how long it lasts for because that helps you sort of quantify the shock.
01:21We're a country that's abundant in energy.
01:23We should be a low cost energy producer.
01:26That's a massive advantage compared to other countries and we've done a really good job
01:31of screwing that up.
01:32Before you do anything else, the two things that you have to ensure is that you have adequate
01:36supply of food and also energy.
01:39Because without other of those two things you're not going to get much done.
01:42And so increasingly I think some of these big countries are going to look to really want
01:46to lock in long term supply of hard and soft commodities.
01:50And the good thing for Australia is that we have a lot of those.
01:54And the good thing for the regions is that that's where they are.
01:57They're not in the big cities, they're in the regions.
01:59And so I think that's the opportunity for Australia.
02:05Global capital is starting to say, well we've had a great run, we've had lots of money invested
02:10in the US, but maybe it's time we start to think a bit more broadly about other geographies
02:15where we can deploy some of the capital that we need to invest.
02:18And Australia stacks up really nicely when you start to think about, well, what are investors
02:23looking for?
02:24So they're looking for countries that have actually pretty good demographics.
02:28And that's one thing that we have here in Australia relative to our peers.
02:32We are sort of geographically positioned to the fastest growing region in the world, which
02:37is not China anymore because their population is shrinking.
02:40It's not Japan because theirs is shrinking.
02:41But it's effectively that Southeast Asian ring, you know, all the way from Malaysia, Indonesia,
02:48Philippines, where the demographics, you know, we think ours are good, theirs are unbelievably
02:53good.
02:54And so I think for agriculture, while the European thing might have been a bit of a disappointment
02:59and it's clearly a big market, we also have a world of opportunity right on our doorstep.
03:07We've basically flipped, right?
03:08We used to be in a world where we all committed to free trade.
03:12We committed to be sort of good global citizens.
03:15We all wanted free movement of goods, capital, labor.
03:18That world is over.
03:20And we're now in a world where actually what we need to do is put our own interests first.
03:25That's how countries are increasingly starting to think.
03:28So we care about national security and economic security.
03:32Increasingly, like we are going to move towards, you know, far more strategic bilateral trading
03:36relationships rather than just saying, here's what we've got, you know, put your bid in and
03:40more self, sounding like President Trump.
03:42Now I bet there's a deal to be done there.
03:44I don't think I'd ever say that.
03:46It sounds like the art of the deal.
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