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As the West Asia war enters its 21st day, the conflict has expanded from military to energy targets, escalating global risks.
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00:03The West Asia war has now entered the fourth week. It's day 21 at the moment.
00:10But where exactly is the war going on?
00:13From what we understand, it is only escalating further for another three to four more weeks.
00:21Why exactly are we saying it? What are going to be the next 72 hours looking like?
00:27And importantly, how does this leave the world dynamic at the moment?
00:32Where does it leave Donald Trump? Where does it leave the Netanyahu?
00:35And importantly, in the mix of it all, where does India stand?
00:40Hello and welcome. I'm Sonal Merotra Kapoor.
00:42And on Five Live today, we'll be decoding all these issues.
00:46This is a wrap on everything you need to know about the world.
00:48But also, on the other side of the break, we will be bringing you the big blockbuster drug of semaglutide.
00:55Why is it now going to cost you just three to four thousand rupees per month?
00:59Obesity that can be fought with just three to four thousand rupees per month is now available in India.
01:05All details coming up on the program.
01:07But like always, let's first start by bringing you the top ten headlines at this hour.
01:16Israel contradicts the U.S. No ground offensive plan after Trump ruled out boots on ground.
01:22Netanyahu hints at ground offensive in Iran, says can't do a revolution from the air.
01:30Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed rumors of his death, confirming he is alive, leading amid the West Asia conflict.
01:37He also rejected claims of dragging the U.S. into war, saying Donald Trump makes independent decisions.
01:46Meanwhile, F-35, America's most advanced stealth fighter jet, has been hit in combat in its entire operation history.
01:56Until March 19th, Iran's air defenses, which U.S. President Donald Trump said was destroyed, detected, logged onto it and
02:05then hit a F-35 jet.
02:10U.S. allies back the secure Hormos call.
02:14Six nations are ready for Hormos peace after ceasefire.
02:18Italy, France, Germany assure support only after truce, though, and the European nations rule out any military intervention.
02:30Iran forces spokesperson were killed in the Iran strike.
02:34Iran forces spokesperson Alniani killed another top Iranian commander who has laid his life on the wall.
02:44Sri Lanka rejected a U.S. request to land two warplanes at the Matala airport.
02:52President there told Sri Lankan parliament that he will not allow U.S. to land those warplanes.
03:05All right, so all those stories and updates coming to us as day 21 is upon us.
03:12All right, so we are looking at what exactly will be the impact that the war will actually have.
03:20Day 21, let's start by giving you all the updates there.
03:23The war has just crossed what many are now calling a line the world cannot ignore.
03:29For weeks, Europe had said that Hormos is far away.
03:33Not our conflict, not our crisis.
03:36Now, that illusion seems to be over for Europe.
03:41Because missiles are no longer targeting armies, they are targeting energy.
03:45Qatar's LNG lifeline has come under attack, one of the world's most critical gas hubs,
03:52a pillar for Europe's post-Russia energy strategy.
03:56And this is no longer a regional war now.
03:58This is a war that can switch off heating in European homes,
04:04trigger peace shocks across Asia and also destabilize the global economy.
04:10When energy supplies become a battlefield, distance stops mattering, remember.
04:16And Europe is now discovering that.
04:18You don't need boots on your ground, boots on the field or soil to fight the war.
04:23You just need your fuel supply under fire and there you go, you get involved.
04:29So how has the war turned out in these 21 days?
04:32As the West Asia war enters its fourth week and what has been the significant shift that we are seeing,
04:39let's decode that in five points for you.
04:42Number one, Europe's energy security has been hit directly now.
04:46Qatar is amongst the largest LNG supplies to Europe.
04:49After losing the Russian pipeline gas, Europe rebuilt its energy system around LNG imports.
04:55Any disruption in Qatar now creates immediate anxiety amongst the winter reserves,
05:02industrial supplies and the electricity pipeline and their prices.
05:07Number two, the war has shifted from military to economic targets.
05:12We are witnessing infrastructure warfare, gas fields.
05:15We are looking at liquefaction plants.
05:18We are looking at export terminals.
05:20We are looking at energy shipping.
05:21Destroying supply chains can cause global damage faster than the battlefield victories.
05:28Which brings me to number three.
05:30LNG markets are entering a panic mode now.
05:33Unlike oil, LNG supply is rigid and difficult to replace just immediately or quickly.
05:39Cargos are pre-contracted.
05:41Shipping routes are limited.
05:44The spare capacity is very, very thin.
05:46And even the threat of disrupting or disruption in this space sends prices soaring and triggers building wars between Europe
05:55and Asia.
05:58Number four then, Hormos is now a global pressure point.
06:02A huge share of world's oil and gas flows through this very, very narrow passage.
06:08If tankers fear attack, shipments, low insurance costs explode and also supply tightens, the blocket is not required.
06:16Fear alone can disrupt global energy flows.
06:19And then finally, let's bring you number five.
06:22Risk of direct international involvement in rising.
06:27Now, as energy security comes under threat, outside powers face pressure to act.
06:33Naval escorts for tankers, air defenses cooperation, emergency diplomacy, strategic reserve planning.
06:41The conflict is now steadily moving from a regional war towards what is now, indeed, a global crisis.
06:52Having understood that, let's see how the visuals are telling you that story on the ground.
06:58Here's a report.
07:08The workloads over West Asia are only getting darker, with Day 21 seeing fresh strikes and sharper rhetoric.
07:14As costs spiral and pressure mounts, the conflict is now threatening to stretch U.S. military capacity to its limits.
07:22The F-35, America's most advanced stealth fighter jet, has never been hit in combat in its entire operation history,
07:29until March 19, when Iran did the unthinkable.
07:35While Trump claims that Iran's air defenses were destroyed and detected, and that the F-35 made an emergency landing
07:41at a base in the Middle East, Iran claimed that the F-35 had crashed.
07:46A UK media report suggests that the prolonged Iran conflict could weaken the U.S. military for years, with rapid
07:51deletion of high-end munitions like the Tomahawk missiles and heavy use of Patriot and Thard interceptors.
07:57The report goes on to say that the replacement cost of these machines could cost the United States between $20
08:02billion to $26 billion.
08:04Long deployments, troop fatigue and diversion of resources from the India-Pacific are now emerging as serious concerns.
08:13Losses are also mounting due to prolonged war.
08:16Reports say that the U.S. has lost 16 military aircraft in the Iran war, and that 10 Reaper drones
08:21have been destroyed by Iran so far.
08:23Reports also say that several aircraft have been lost in the attacks, including three F-15 jets hit by friendly
08:29fire.
08:30Reports further add that the KC-135 strato tanker was also lost during a refueling operation, resulting in the deaths
08:37of all six crew members on board.
08:39Further damage is reported at an airfield in Saudi Arabia, where Iranian missile strikes hit multiple refueling aircraft, leaving five
08:46KC-135 tankers damaged, as per reports.
08:50The costs are now soaring after $11 billion in the first week, with Trump now seeking $200 billion to fund
08:57the war.
08:58As the war heads into its fourth week, Iran has kept up a steady pace of strikes around the region,
09:04forcing Trump's forces to dig deeper.
09:12So the big question now, the next 24 to 72 hours, what exactly is going to happen?
09:19And will the next 72 hours decide whether this remains an energy shock or becomes a full-scale global crisis?
09:27Because the timing, that is combustible. Remember, Eid is approaching.
09:31The period of mass travelling, public gathering, heightened religious sensitivity and maximum political symbolism across West Asia.
09:40History shows conflicts rarely pause during such moments. In fact, they often intensify.
09:47So based on that, what are the three, and I hate to say this, the three sort of dangerous scenarios
09:53that now loom around us?
09:57Let's start with number one. You know, further strikes on energy infrastructure, if LNG facility tankers or pipelines are hit
10:05again,
10:06markets could move from panic to an absolute breakdown. We've seen how they've reacted so far in days, in 21
10:13days.
10:14There have been a massive, you know, up and down, up and down. We'll have to see if it leads
10:19to a breakdown completely.
10:20Number two. Proxy escalation across the region. Militias and allied groups may act independently,
10:28which is a possibility we've spoken about before as well, opening multiple fronts simultaneously from the Gulf to the Levent
10:35as well.
10:36And then there is number three. Eid also complicates military calculations.
10:41Crowded cities increase civilian risk, religious sites becoming sensitive flashpoints.
10:46Any mass sort of casualty event now would ignite outrage across the Muslim world.
10:55And that raises the stakes for every actor involved.
10:59But having spoken about those possibilities, we are hopeful for one possibility.
11:04We are hoping and praying for another fourth possibility that I've put out for you.
11:09Back-channel diplomacy somehow brings in a temporary restraint or a symbolic pause to avoid inflaming public sentiment.
11:19Because no government, no civilian, if I dare to say nobody on the borders as well,
11:26wants images of devastation circulating during one of the holiest period of the year.
11:32So, the world now waits, not just for missiles, but for signals.
11:38Will energy flows hold? Will hormones remain open? Will outside powers step in?
11:43Or will the war cross another irreversible line?
11:46The next three days may tell us whether this crisis stabilises or whether the world wakes up to a very,
11:54very difficult energy reality.
11:57And by the time Eid begins or ends here in India at least, we may know if this war was
12:04the peak so far or is it just beginning.
12:11On that note, let me cut across to exactly where all of this is unfolding.
12:15Let me cut across to Beirut in Lebanon.
12:17My colleague Ashraf Wani is there and has been reporting quite bravely on that front.
12:22Ashraf, Eid wahan already man chuki hai.
12:25India mein tayyariya chal rahi hai hai.
12:28I firstly want to understand from you what exactly has changed in the past two days in what you are
12:34seeing where you are.
12:37We have seen some pause here in the Beirut city, mainly during the last 24 hours.
12:42There was not any fresh air strike by the idea which they were doing during the last some 16, 17
12:49days on everyday basis here.
12:52But we have found some calm.
12:54But the important thing, what you were mentioning earlier, tomorrow is the Eid being celebrated by the Iran and the
13:00Hezbollah people.
13:01And it is supporters because they mostly belong to the Shia sect.
13:05They are celebrating Eid here tomorrow.
13:07I see.
13:08And hopefully it seems that probably there will not be a large number of gatherings because the country is under
13:14war.
13:14But since that, it will be very important to see whether tomorrow there will be any kind of aerial strike
13:20from the IDF towards the Beirut or they may put it at halt as they have done during the last
13:2824 hours.
13:29Another thing is that in the South Lebanon, which is in war, there is no let-off from the IDF
13:34strikes.
13:35They are currently going on during the Eid period also.
13:39And Hezbollah, which is the main proxy of Iran here in Lebanon, they are also giving the heavy response to
13:47these aerial strikes on the border.
13:49They are continuously on everyday basis, firing more than 100 drones and missiles towards the northern parts of Israel, which
14:00has somehow put some kind of a pressure on IDF, particularly the population residing in the northern parts of Israel.
14:07Because earlier in the 2024 war between Lebanon and Israel, the population living near the borders in the northern Israel
14:17was pushed towards the safer zones because they were not finding somehow safe there.
14:23And it seems again this time that probably there will be pressure from the population because they are being hit
14:29on a regular basis.
14:30Their property is getting damaged, their houses are getting damaged, whether the IDF could curb that kind of a displacement
14:38in the Israel or not, that is yet to be seen.
14:42Right. Ashraf, my next question is something that we often forget in times like these.
14:47We constantly discuss the military might of nations.
14:51We discuss the oil capacities.
14:53We discuss numbers.
14:54We often forget people.
14:56This is the holiest month for so many across the world.
15:01Firstly, I want to start by wishing you as well.
15:03Boat-boat Eid Mubarak aapko.
15:06But I don't know kis baat ki Mubarak baat ham de re hain aas hamein.
15:09We don't know.
15:09Can you give me a sense of how people in Behrut are even looking at Eid at the moment?
15:16Has the entire atmosphere changed completely?
15:20Sonal Dhirava is completely the shadow of this war on the Eid celebrations.
15:23Eid is a very auspicious day for the Muslims across the world, particularly after the completion of the holy month
15:31of Ramadan.
15:32The importance of Ramadan is in itself among the Muslims.
15:37And I have seen earlier in the streets when the decorations were going on in the shopping malls, in the
15:44markets, in the mosques, in the houses, in fact, for the celebrations of holy month of Ramadan.
15:49But those lights are still there.
15:51But amid the Ramadan, this war started not only in the Iran, but also in the other parts of the
15:58Gulf countries.
15:58Almost all whole Muslim world here in this central part of the world is under the shadow of this war.
16:04So we have not seen any kind of that kind of festive activities, what used to be seen here, particularly
16:12in the Gulf countries on the eve of Eid.
16:14So there is complete shadow of that war and that kind of, we can say, misery among the people during
16:22that war.
16:23More than 100 people had been killed here in this country of 60 lakh population.
16:272,000 are injured and also among them more than 100 are children.
16:33And the biggest, we can say, tragedy for the country is that one-sixth of the population, 10 lakh people,
16:411 million people is displaced who had been pushed by the Israel to move out from their homes,
16:46not only in the south suburb of Beirut, but mostly from the hundreds of villages in the southern part of
16:53Lebanon.
16:55Well, Ashraf, I can only say the only Eid anybody wants at the moment is for restraint, for peace to
17:02come upon all of us.
17:03I think that's the only wish all of us have this Eid as well.
17:06So firstly, stay safe wherever you are. We hope you can come back home soon and all of this can
17:12come to a halt.
17:13Thank you so much for joining us and please stay very, very safe.
17:19All right. So the question now really in anybody's hand, war helps who?
17:25The answer is becoming clearer by the day.
17:29If the U.S.-Israel war on Iran ended tomorrow, one verdict is already clear.
17:36Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would walk away stronger,
17:40while U.S. President Donald Trump would perhaps be left to manage the shock to global markets
17:48and to Gulf allies who have, you know, sort of borne the heaviest cost of it all.
17:52As the conflict stretches on, the political impact is just now diverging sharply
18:00with Israel's Prime Minister gaining ground at home,
18:03while U.S. President Donald Trump facing mounting pressure back home amid falling ratings
18:07and no clear end game.
18:10So what's happening? Let's break it down for you.
18:14On one side, you have Benjamin Netanyahu riding the war wave.
18:1993% of Israels backing the Iran operation
18:23and 74% expressing trust in leadership according to the Israel Democracy Institute survey.
18:31You see that?
18:31But on the other side, you have Donald Trump losing ground.
18:38Approval ratings hovering around 41%, while disapproval sits nearly 55%,
18:44as reflected across major polling averages.
18:48The war consensus is translating into political strength,
18:52with Netanyahu firmly in control of the narrative,
18:55and more critically, Trump remaining stuck in the conflict with no clear exit strategy,
19:02as economic and geopolitical pressure continues to mount.
19:06Same war, two very different political outcomes.
19:11The question that most are asking now is,
19:15did Netanyahu actually drag Donald Trump into this war?
19:20And the next report will explain you why.
19:28Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?
19:34Come on.
19:35With these comments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed allegations that Israel dragged the United States into the West Asia war,
19:43a conflict that has been raging for more than three weeks.
19:46It all started with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araki's claim.
19:50Sharing a post on the Pentagon seeking more than $200 billion for war,
19:54Araki wrote on X that this $200 billion is the tip of the iceberg.
19:59Ordinary Americans can thank Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies in the US Congress for the trillion-dollar Israel-first tax
20:05that's about to hit their economy.
20:08The allegations sparked a debate, prompting a response from Netanyahu, who said that no one can tell Trump what to
20:14do.
20:14I want to close these opening remarks with one other fake news.
20:18And that is that Israel somehow dragged the US into a conflict with Iran.
20:24Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?
20:30Come on.
20:31President Trump always makes his decisions on what he thinks is good for America, and may I add, I think
20:38what is also good for future generations.
20:41The Prime Minister added that Israeli and US forces were achieving results at lightning speed.
20:46In this case, those interests are absolutely clear, and so is the clarity of our achievements.
20:54Together in close coordination with President Trump, close coordination between America and Israel, our militaries, our intelligence services, we're achieving
21:04goals in lightning speed.
21:08Netanyahu may have addressed the allegations, calling them baseless, in an attempt to put them to rest.
21:13But the question is now not who dragged whom into the war, it's about who will step forward to stop
21:19it.
21:19We are a report, India Today.
21:25And the question on our mind really, never mind who sort of wins or who loses in this war.
21:31The question is, do we know when this war is ending?
21:34Do we understand where it is headed?
21:37I thought we'll get you people who understand the ins and outs of everything that's happening and can decode this
21:42for us.
21:42Joining me now is Gaurav Savant.
21:44Also, Sandeep is here with us, senior journalist.
21:47Also, Colonel Rohit Dev is here with us to give us a view of how things stand.
21:51Gaurav, day 21, we have spoken about how this war is in phase two, according to you.
21:57The next 72 hours are going to be very, very critical.
22:01But at the moment, where do you see this going next?
22:05Gaurav, the war right now is in a very complicated and complex phase.
22:10America, on the one hand, wants to put pressure on Iran.
22:13On the other hand, Iranian oil is being unsanctioned, especially oil that's already out at sea, point one, point two.
22:21America is also talking about taking control of Khark Island.
22:25Khark Island is something that Iran will not give control of very easily.
22:29So, is that where you watch the next war?
22:32And that clearly, if you want to take control of an island, as Scott Besant seemed to indicate in the
22:37United States,
22:38that would mean they will have to put boots on ground.
22:41Will that happen in the next 72 hours?
22:44Unlikely.
22:45It's likely to take at least a week for American resources and men and material to be placed on ground,
22:52because that is where you talk about massive escalation.
22:55It cannot happen just with 2,500 soldiers.
22:58Will the 82nd Airborne, which last week had cancelled some of their military exercises and were apparently mobilizing.
23:05If they are mobilizing, which means you are in this for the long haul,
23:09if America wants to take control of Khark Island and starve Iran out of funds,
23:13then this war is going to get really bloody and dirty in the weeks ahead.
23:19Really bloody and really dirty in the weeks ahead.
23:21That doesn't paint a good picture at all.
23:23Sandeep, let me come to you next.
23:24And can I ask you a very basic question?
23:28Something that has really bugged so many people looking at this war right now,
23:32and who are trying to understand why is America fighting this war?
23:36Why, which, when now it's clearly established that this is Israel's war to fight with Iran.
23:42Why is America into this?
23:44And just, you know, bringing in the entire global equation with him.
23:49Well, Sonal, a one word answer to that, hubris.
23:53Donald Trump, on the top of that victory in Venezuela where he grabbed President Maduro, kidnapped him, brought him back
24:00to the US for trial.
24:02That kind of, that victory got to his head and he possibly thought he could replicate Venezuela in Iran.
24:08Now, as we've seen over the last 21 days, every single calculation of the United States has backfired.
24:15And as Gaurav just mentioned, it is now approaching that very, very critical phrase that most people in the US
24:23dislike.
24:23That is, boots on ground.
24:25B-O-G.
24:26Now, B-O-G translates to bog, a quicksand, a quagmire.
24:30And that is exactly what Iran wants.
24:32Iran wants to draw the United States soldiers on the ground so that they can get into a kind of
24:39combat with them and trap them in Iran.
24:43Now, that is a catastrophic situation and we've seen where this has gone in the past with Vietnam, with Iraq,
24:50with Afghanistan.
24:51The United States has been stuck fighting these forever wars.
24:55And the biggest tragedy, the biggest irony of this whole thing, situation, Sonal, is the fact that this is President
25:02Donald Trump,
25:02the man who said that I am the first American president not to start any wars.
25:07There is clips of him from 2008 criticizing George Bush for going into the Middle East.
25:12He said he should be tried for going into the Middle East and he's doing exactly that.
25:17And he wants a peace prize at the end of it all.
25:20So, let's see how all of that is going.
25:21I also have with me Colonel Rohit Dev.
25:23Colonel Rohit Dev, your assessment of what's happening, how long this could drag?
25:28It's very clear.
25:29There are exit scenarios and there are off ramps which everybody is looking at.
25:34America is in a soup and as Unnathan said, a bog.
25:37And that bog will only go deeper with America's intervention beyond a certain point.
25:42So, there are pressures building up.
25:44The pressure is from the European Union at large to secure the energy crisis in a fashion that going into
25:51the next winters does not turn out to be a little more, you know,
25:55in terms of impact adverse for them.
25:58The second part is that geopolitically, while you are fighting a war, Russia and China are playing a different silent
26:06game.
26:06And not only to, you know, keep their resources intact, but they are looking very, very critically that just like,
26:12you know, naming a Gulf of Mexico or going after Greenland,
26:15Kirk is going to be a different ball game.
26:18And to say that as a Secretary of Treasury, I think it's something which is not done in geopolitics.
26:24So, I am quite sure that while ships are moving wherever they are moving, the submarines are a plenty in
26:30terms of resistance to the American plans.
26:32And that would be happening as well in the short term.
26:36And so far as the off-ramp is concerned, he would have done very well as President Trump to call
26:41it a victory already and tom-tom through the media and whatever he does best.
26:45But then, he would have put Nitin Ayou in a lurch, what he did last summers.
26:50So, last summers, that ceasefire was something which took Israel by surprise.
26:54And this time, they are making no bones in what they are going to strike and do.
26:58The only geopolitical mistake they have done, beyond whatever killing in a school and everything aside,
27:04is going after very critical civil energy infrastructure.
27:08Yeah.
27:09And that's going to snowball because Iran, as on today also, has made it very clear that they will also
27:15continue to target these places.
27:17And where is the pressure going to be?
27:18The pressure is not on continental U.S.
27:20The pressure is going to be on U.S. investment of Aramco, the investment of EximMobil in various oil and
27:28gas refineries and places and sources in Gulf.
27:31And it's going to get hit.
27:33And I make no bones about it because if Iran is worth its salt, that's going to happen.
27:39The pressure, if I may, Karan, the pressure will be on Europe, the pressure will be on Asia.
27:44Yeah.
27:44Not just on energy, but on agriculture.
27:47Non-availability of fertilizers in the sowing season would be a disaster for the world.
27:52And if I may add pharma, all your chemicals, even as something as basic as a paracetamol, the chemical used
27:57in it comes from some of these oils.
27:59All of that is in the pipeline.
28:00I agree.
28:01There is an impact.
28:02There is…
28:02One thing is very clear and Sandeep come in on this point.
28:05One thing is very, very clear that this war is no longer…
28:09Can I dare to say it?
28:10Is it just a West Asia war now?
28:13With the way Europe is now engaged in it, is it just a West Asia war now?
28:16It's a firefight in a refinery.
28:19It started as a gunfight in a gas station.
28:21It's gone on to a firefight in a refinery.
28:24And now the whole world is affected because 50% of the global oil, gas, energy supplies comes from that
28:31one spot in West Asia.
28:32And that is the reason everybody is affected.
28:34So, in a sense, it's almost like the world is at war because everybody is affected by that war that
28:41you've chosen to embark on without informing your trusted allies and your friends.
28:46And that has been the biggest betrayal if you can call it that.
28:51That you did not take your closest allies and friends, strategic partners into confidence for a war that you assumed
28:57would get over in hours.
28:58It's now been dragging on for days and the world is paying the bill for this stupidity.
29:04This enormous, enormous miscalculation by the United States.
29:08Couldn't agree more.
29:09I want to give the last word to Gaurav then.
29:11Gaurav, what can make situations change?
29:15What can possibly lead to de-escalation at this point?
29:19Eve is around the corner.
29:20Give me some hope.
29:23Sadly, while I would love to give you hope when you look at the ground reality,
29:27it will be a loss of face either for Iran or for America.
29:32Going into midterm elections, President Trump cannot go into elections looking like a loser.
29:37So, he will continue to push ahead.
29:39Can European powers, can countries like India and everyone else come together?
29:45You know, the way Qatar said yesterday, stop this war now.
29:49Start talking, find an off ramp.
29:51Immediately, perhaps no.
29:53But maybe, maybe gradually there can be some kind of winding down.
29:57But look at what America is saying.
29:58If they want to take control of Khark Island.
30:00If they, are these just words?
30:02Or they intend to follow it up with action?
30:05So far, if they wanted to take control of oil, whether it was in Iraq or in Libya and now
30:10Iran.
30:11And if it's a war for oil, then we are in for tough, tough times ahead.
30:16Because Iran, unlike Iraq and Libya, wasn't just run by one person.
30:21There is a system in place and that system is hitting back with pinpoint accuracy.
30:25You hit their desalination plant, they will hit one.
30:28You hit one gas pipe, gas facility, they will hit back one.
30:32So, they are making sure they are in a position to respond.
30:36And as of now, they remain in a position to respond.
30:38Look, if they can wing an F-35, the world's most modern fifth generation stealth fighter.
30:44You are not playing with weak, you are not playing with a weak country.
30:47You are not fighting with a weak country.
30:49But Gaurav then, where is Khamenei Junior then?
30:51Where is he?
30:52You know, we have got Nitin Yahoo come out on record now to say, listen, I am here.
30:56I am walking, talking, this is where I am.
30:58I, you know, all those fake news has been rubbished away.
31:00We have seen some footage being released from Iran now.
31:04Which is a file footage, like an older footage of his.
31:06There are audio messages, which is not his audio.
31:09There are serious questions on his health right now.
31:12And that's the amazing thing, if I may, that even without a Khamenei, they can fight.
31:18Even without an Ali Larejani, they can fight.
31:21Even without a Shamkhani, they can fight.
31:23Even without a Muhammad Pakpur, they can fight.
31:25They have systems in place.
31:2731 different provinces can continue to fight.
31:30You will have to take down all 31 provinces.
31:32That doesn't happen in the near future.
31:35All right.
31:35So, I am taking a deep breath on all that information that has been unloaded on us for the moment.
31:40Thank you all, gentlemen, for joining us with all that perspective.
31:42Let's hope when we meet again on Monday, there is some better news report.
31:46But it looks unlikely at the moment.
31:48But talking about war, war is now hitting closer to home, not just on the battlefield.
31:53It's hitting our pharmacies and hospitals as well.
31:56India's pharmaceutical sector is now beginning to feel the heat as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains and sends
32:02input costs soaring.
32:03Prices of key raw materials, including APIs and chemicals, have surged as much as 200% to 300%, putting immediate
32:10pressure on drug makers.
32:12And it's not just industry margins that are at stake.
32:15Every medicine is now on the line of fire.
32:18From fever remedies like paracetamol to critical drugs for diabetes and heart conditions, supply risks are rising.
32:26In fact, the cost of paracetamol inputs alone has nearly doubled, jumping from around 250 to about 450 per kilo
32:34in a matter of just days.
32:36But with price caps under the national list of essential medicines, companies are finding it harder now to pass on
32:43these costs to the consumer.
32:45And thank God for that just yet.
32:46At the same time, packaging materials from aluminium foil to plastic and glass are becoming more expensive,
32:53while freight costs rise and fuel shortages threaten production.
32:57Small and median manufacturers are under the most strain, with some now considering countering output as well.
33:03And that's where the real concern begins.
33:07Because if production slows, patients could soon face shortages, delays, higher prices, especially for low-cost generic medicines.
33:18With buffer stocks now lasting just three to six months, the clock is ticking.
33:27And today is an important day. A tsunami is coming. A tsunami of generics for GLP-1 semaglutide.
33:36That means weight loss drugs.
33:37Let's try and understand how.
33:39Now, how much do weight loss injections actually cost in India right now?
33:43About 9000 to 28000 rupees per month.
33:47But from March 21st, those prices are about to crash.
33:52Not just by 30%, not just by 50%, but a staggering 70% to start with.
33:59That's right. The same weight loss injection could soon cost as little as just 3,000 to 4,000 rupees
34:06per month.
34:08Why?
34:09Because the patent for the blockbuster drug semaglutide is expiring.
34:14In fact, has expired now.
34:16Semaglutide is the active ingredient behind the global mega drugs like Ozempic and Vigovie.
34:21Originally for diabetes, now famous worldwide for rapid weight loss as well.
34:26These injections work like by copying the natural hormone of reducing hunger, reducing appetite, slowing down your stomach emptying and
34:35also improving your blood sugar control.
34:37But patients don't, you know, you have to be a little careful about this entire thing.
34:44We'll tell you why towards the end.
34:46Remember, when it comes to patents, they don't last forever.
34:50And in India, the key patent expiry on March 20th from March 21st, any approved pharma company can now manufacture
34:58and sell it.
34:59And we counted 54 branded generic versions will rush the market, will rush the pharmacies immediately after the patent lift.
35:11That is in day two, day three, day four as well.
35:15Now, this is what experts called a patent cliff.
35:19One day, there is monopoly.
35:21The next day, there is massive competition.
35:23India pharma giants are already lined up and many are planning day one launches.
35:28Right now, monthly treatments can sort of exceed 9,000 to even 28,000 rupees.
35:34After generics enter, the prices will be nearly one third, one fifth.
35:39And that is just to start with. As we go towards December, there could be further rationalization of these medicines.
35:45Industry estimates suggest that the cost may drop around 3,000 to 4,000 rupees per month.
35:50Genetics are cheaper, remember, because companies don't repeat billion dollar researches.
35:55They manufacture the same molecule, prove it works and the same, you know, now is competitive in the market as
36:02well.
36:03Now, this isn't just a vanity weight loss.
36:06Remember that India has one of the world's largest diabetes and obesity population.
36:12Cheaper access could transform treatment for millions of people.
36:17But remember, this is not for everyone.
36:20Only an internal medicine expert or an endocrinologist should be prescribing.
36:26Even if that thought is in your head that, okay, let me jump on to these medications now that they
36:30are sort of affordable,
36:31now that they are available everywhere, please, please consult your doctor before you do that.
36:36And remember, this is not just an India phenomena.
36:40This will have global repercussions because India is the pharmacy of the world, which means once genetics enter, prices will
36:47crash globally, not just in India.
36:51But over and above all of this, I have to remind you again, these are amazing drugs.
36:59These are powerful drugs, but they are not for everyone.
37:03Only those who are clinically, chronically obese are the ones who should be taking it.
37:09I cannot stress on this enough.
37:10This is not a beauty shot.
37:11This is not powerful metabolic medicine that anybody can take.
37:15Not every doctor should be prescribing it either.
37:18Like I said, an endocrinologist or internal medicine specialist only knows how to even evaluate your body or understand what
37:24these drugs are doing to you.
37:26Remember, these drugs affect hormones, blood sugar, digestion, cardiovascular risks as well.
37:31So, there are a series of tests that have to be done on you before you even start taking these
37:36drugs.
37:37So, please go to your doctor, get those tests done if you think they are the need and listen to
37:43the right doctor and only then get on to these drugs.
37:46Remember, this is also importantly only semaglutide.
37:50What you have in Manjaro and your peak, which is a Sipla India product, that also is a GLP-1,
37:58but that's a different.
37:59That is stress appetite.
38:00That is even more powerful, GIP plus GLP-1.
38:04That patent has not expired.
38:05So, those who are taking Manjaro and your peak will continue to have that advantage.
38:11Price crash not happening for you.
38:13For the rest, semaglutide is now just going to be about 3,000 to 4,000 per month.
38:22All right, moving on now.
38:24A massive rain system stretching nearly 1,000 kilometres across North India is now on the move.
38:29The western disturbances that brought widespread showers to north is now shifting eastwards.
38:36And with it, the rain belt is expanding as well.
38:40Now, what is that picture telling you? It's a very interesting one.
38:43States like Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are now in the line of an increased rainfall activity over the coming
38:49hours.
38:49This system is also driving in cooler north-westly winds, bringing a noticeable dip in temperatures along with the rain.
38:57So after soaking in North India, the weather is now marching east.
39:03And that's how it will be for the next couple of days as well.
39:07But let's quickly see what this disturbance is actually leading to.
39:11Let's start with, as the disturbance moves eastward, rainfall activity will increase over the regions, impacting states like Bihar, Jharkhand
39:19and even West Bengal.
39:20Let's take a look at what the weather across these states as they stand right now.
39:24Winter has returned to Kashmir.
39:27Fresh sort of snowfall has been reported there in Gulmark, in Pehlgaam, Sonmark, with up to three feet of snow
39:34in some parts.
39:35Temperatures have dropped sharply, triggering a cloud, you know, there.
39:39And also cold wave, wild plains, see continuous rain as well.
39:43The IMD forecast says improvement after the next 12 hours.
39:47But for now, temperatures are likely to remain in the negative tonight.
39:51In Delhi, let's look at that.
39:53The weather continues to remain cloudy.
39:55Intermittent rain is there.
39:57Cloudy skies, gusty winds have persisted over the past few days with no sign of clear sunshine.
40:03The sudden shift, which began midweek, has led to a noticeable drop in temperatures, bringing an unexpected chill and giving
40:10the capital a monsoon-like feel all over again.
40:13Those of you who had packed your winter were aware, well, bring out your jackets because it's time that this
40:18will last for a couple of days.
40:20Let's move to Jamnagar then.
40:21The weather has there taken a sudden turn.
40:23Strong winds have swept across the city with light rain reported in several areas.
40:28Dust storms were seen rising on roads, while power supply was disrupted as well in parts due to gusty winds.
40:35Met department said districts like Patan, Jamnagar, Morbi, Devu Bhoomi, Dwaraka and Kach may remain under the shower spell.
40:48Across Rajasthan, let's look at the situation there.
40:51It's pretty similar.
40:52IMD has issued a rain alert for 10 districts in the state.
40:55Forecasting thunderstorms, strong winds and light rain in some areas like Jodhpur, Bikaner, Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur as well.
41:03Owing to scattered storms and rainfall, many cities recorded about 1 to 2 degree drop in daytime temperatures as well.
41:11And Jharkhand, believe it or not, is also seeing an intense turn of weather.
41:17Weather alerts for thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds has been issued by the IMD in several districts.
41:23Gusty winds also along with scattered rainfall expected in cities like Rachi, like Ghanbad and the dip in temperature of
41:30a brief relief there from the heat.
41:42Alright, that's all we could pack in today's edition of Five Live.
41:45Tell us what you think of the program, also tell us what topics you would like us to cover here
41:50in the comment section.
41:51We read all of those and we take them very, very seriously as well.
41:54For now, thanks so much for watching. We'll see you again on Monday. Bye-bye.
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