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The escalating Israel-US war with Iran has entered Day 20, marked by significant military and economic developments.
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00:08Israel strikes South Park's gas field in Iran.
00:13Iran retaliates, strikes energy hubs.
00:23Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait hit.
00:30Trump threatens to blow up entire South Powers.
00:35Iran vows vengeance, warns of more attacks.
00:44Crude oil prices surge.
00:48What is the endgame?
00:56West Asia War Roundtable.
01:01Hello and welcome to the Global Roundtable.
01:04The Israel-U.S. war with Iran is well into week three.
01:09In fact, closing in on a fourth week to start.
01:12And it shows no signs of ending.
01:15A war whose theatre keeps expanding across West Asia,
01:19but also affecting different parts of the world, including India.
01:23Several leading Iranian public figures have been assassinated in the last few days.
01:29But also, Iran continues with its drone and missile attacks.
01:33Today on the Global Roundtable, we will ask the big question that is being asked across the world.
01:39What will it take to end this conflict in West Asia?
01:43How long could that take?
01:45And what will be the cost of a prolonged war?
01:48Joining us now on this Global Roundtable,
01:51Aynar Tangan, Senior Fellow, Center for International Governance, Innovation, and Chairman of Asia Narratives.
01:58He joins me from Beijing.
02:00Christopher Clary, Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center, is joining me.
02:04Also joining me, Casey Singh, former Indian Ambassador to several of the West Asian countries.
02:09I'm also joined by Velina Chakarova.
02:12She's a geopolitical strategist and chief strategic.
02:14And she joins me, Foressa, she joins me from Austria.
02:18I'm also joined by Danny Orbach, Military Historian, Associate Professor in General History and East Asian Studies at the Hebrew
02:25University of Jerusalem.
02:26And I've earlier also spoken to my guest from Iran.
02:31I appreciate all of you joining us on the show today because we want to get in as many different
02:38viewpoints on the show.
02:39Dr. Faud Ezadi, Associate Professor, University of Iran.
02:43I spoke to him earlier.
02:44I'm going to raise big questions in this debate.
02:48First, of course, what will it take to end this war?
02:52How long do they expect this war to continue?
02:55And I want to start with Dr. Ezadi, who I spoke to earlier.
02:59Will the war escalate further or are we reaching the final stage?
03:03Dr. Ezadi, all the top Iranian leaders have been killed or several of them, one after another.
03:34You know, this is an illegal war. You don't have to take my words for it.
03:38You had high-ranking Trump administration officials resigning.
03:45Joe Kent saying that this was an unnecessary war.
03:48Iran was not a threat to the United States. This is a war for Israel.
03:52He's blaming the Israeli lobby for starting this war.
03:56And yes, they are good at terrorizing. They are good at killing people.
04:01Iran has a population of 93 million, an old civilization.
04:06It would be foolish to think that by killing old politicians in Iran, you can destroy the country.
04:14That's what they want to do. They want to balkanize Iran. They want Iran's oil.
04:18This is what Lindsey Graham, the foolish American senator, said the other day.
04:23That once they're done with Iran, they would be controlling 31% of oil reserves internationally.
04:30He's adding Iranian oil and Venezuelan oil.
04:33Iranian oil belongs to Iranians. Venezuelan oil belongs to Venezuelans.
04:38These people are on a rampage, an illegal, unnecessary war.
04:42A diplomatic solution was available. There is this culture of resistance here.
04:47Old politicians will be replaced with younger politicians, younger leaders.
04:54And they would make sure that the other side pays a price for starting this illegal war against Iran.
05:02You're calling it an illegal war again and again, but what is the mood on the ground?
05:06Is there desperation? Does the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran enjoy the trust of the people of Iran?
05:14You can watch news coverage of what is going on in Iran every night.
05:24Netanyahu asked Iranians to come to the streets in millions.
05:28They are every night shouting against Netanyahu and Trump.
05:33You cannot make a nation like you by bombing them, by bombing school children, by bombing hospitals.
05:41They are bombing oil facilities as we speak.
05:45Netanyahu, before doing his genocide in Gaza, called Palestinians Amelik.
05:53That's the terminology in their twisted ideology that they use.
05:58And once they label a nation Amelik, they get to kill their women and children.
06:04He used that terminology against Iranians at the beginning of this war.
06:09They want to repeat their genocidal experience in Gaza in Iran.
06:14The only difference is that Iran is a much bigger country, much bigger in terms of population.
06:21And they're not going to be able to do that.
06:24Iran has this culture of resistance.
06:26Trump has managed to unite Iranians more than any Iranian politician could ever do.
06:31But may I ask you, sir, Iran has warned of attacks on oil infrastructure in Gulf nations.
06:37Is Tehran making enemies across the region?
06:40Is that a wise strategy?
06:41Are you all getting isolated by the rest of the world?
06:47Iranian leaders have said for many weeks now that if you attack Iranian oil facilities,
06:53oil facilities that have American investment or American companies that are involved in oil facilities in this part of the
07:02world,
07:02they become legitimate targets.
07:04You attack Iranian military, U.S. bases will be attacked.
07:08You attack oil facilities, oil facilities will be attacked.
07:11They attacked Iranian banks the other day.
07:15American banks in this part of the world will be attacked.
07:18This is an illegal war.
07:19It's called an eye for an eye.
07:21And they need to pay a price.
07:23These countries are providing bases for this illegal attack.
07:29And when you provide bases to people who are on a rampage, people like Trump and Netanyahu,
07:34there will be a cost associated with that policy decision.
07:38It was foolish for these countries to provide bases to the Americans.
07:42They're using these bases to attack Iran.
07:45We had the CENTCOM commander saying that they have done 6,000 sorties against Iran.
07:51You cannot do that off an aircraft carrier that is leaving the area.
07:57These bases are used against Iran.
08:00If they're hitting Iranian oil facilities using these bases in these countries,
08:06American facilities in these countries is going to be a legitimate target.
08:10They are going to be targeted.
08:12They are going to burn.
08:14And the people who have assaulted this war are going to burn in hell.
08:19Do you think there is a possibility then, Mr. Izzadi, of talks or is the dialogue completely ruled out at
08:24this stage?
08:28Iran was in the middle of negotiations two times when they attacked Iran two times in the middle of negotiations.
08:35You probably have seen the Omani foreign minister's interview with the American television, CBS News.
08:42Before the war, he said an agreement was available.
08:44The anchor asked him how long would that take?
08:47He said 24 hours, his words.
08:49You know, you have the head of the director of the counter-terrorism center in the United States,
08:58a Trump appointee, saying the same thing.
09:01We had Guardian having a report that the British observer, the British individual from the UK government,
09:08present at the talks believed an agreement was possible.
09:12They didn't want to enter a political agreement with the government of Iran
09:17because they wanted to change Iran's government.
09:19They still want to change Iran's government.
09:21Iran has been ready for dialogue always.
09:25They bomb negotiating tables and they kill the leaders of the other side that's negotiating with them.
09:33We are dealing with indicted war criminals.
09:36Netanyahu is an indicted war criminal in The Hague.
09:41And this is how they are acting and they are going to get a response from Iran that I think
09:47they would not forget for many years.
09:49So, in conclusion, Dr. Izadi, are you saying from what I gather, this war is going to be prolonged,
09:54Iran is not going to bend down and you don't see, therefore, any end to this war anytime soon? Am
10:01I correct?
10:05It's, you know, they are bombing Iran every day. They bombed Tehran just a few minutes ago.
10:12As long as they are bombing Iran, no, it's not going to finish. Iran is going to respond.
10:17The Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed for at least six months.
10:20The way my estimate would be that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for at least six months.
10:26Dr. Izadi from the University of Tehran joining me earlier.
10:30Remember, my Iranian guest refused to come on the round table with the other guest
10:34because he said, I cannot sit with the countries who are attacking my country.
10:39That was Dr. Fawd Izadi, Associate Professor at the University of Tehran.
10:43Says the Straits of Hormuz will be blocked for six months.
10:46Iran will not bend.
10:47I want to bring my guests in.
10:49Danny Orbach from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
10:52Here you've got an Iranian saying, you cannot bomb my country and expect that we will not retaliate.
10:59You cannot take out my leaders one by one, assassinate them and expect we will not retaliate.
11:04How do you respond?
11:06You know, I was quite amazed by this pack of lies that we heard now by the representative of the
11:12Iranian terrorist regime.
11:13First of all, he just forgot that they murdered 30,000 of their own citizens in the protests.
11:19But now I speak about my country.
11:21His country, for the last decades, is set to destroy my country and exterminate my people.
11:30They are saying so openly.
11:32They have a clock in the center of Tehran counting the time until the destruction of Israel.
11:38And recently, secret Iranian documents were exposed where the specific plan for the destruction of Israel was outlined.
11:48So saying we were attacked and we retaliate, this is nonsense.
11:52For decades, we are financing proxies who are murdering Israeli civilians and they try to develop a nuclear bomb in
12:01order to exterminate us once and for all.
12:03We are going to break this ring of fire around us and we are going to defend this Iranian regime.
12:10Now, what does it mean that you are going to break the ring of fire, meaning you are going to
12:14eliminate the entire Iranian leadership?
12:17Because if you eliminate one, there will be someone else who will emerge.
12:20We want to change Iranian behavior.
12:24And if that goes by destroying certain leaders who are part of this genocidal plan, yes, we will do it.
12:32But I think the plan is very, very clear strategically.
12:36The Iranian regime is on the verge of economic collapse already before the war.
12:41Reconstructing everything that was destroyed, Navy, Air Force, nuclear program, air defense, ballistic missiles, defense industry, this is extremely expensive.
12:53Financing the proxies, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas is extremely expensive.
12:58We don't want the Iranian regime to have money any longer to reconstruct this infrastructure designed to destroy us.
13:08And if the regime will survive the war or not, I don't know.
13:11It's up for the Iranian people.
13:13What I know is that I want to take the capabilities out of this regime to destroy Israel and hurt
13:20Americans.
13:21Okay, so the aim is to completely destroy the capabilities of Iran in a way, is what you're saying, decapitate
13:29Iran, some others would suggest.
13:32I want to come to you, Christopher Clary, because the Israelis seem to have a clear plan.
13:37You heard just now from my guest, Danny Orbal.
13:42Do the Americans have a clear plan?
13:44Are they clear about what is the goal, end goal, if any?
13:49You know, this is the most strategically confused war of my lifetime, and I'm old enough to have lived through
13:56several misguided wars already.
13:59I don't think we have a clear plan.
14:02There is a desire to end state, which is to weaken the elements of the Iranian military that threaten the
14:09neighborhood.
14:11But I don't think the administration expected to have to go so long with real dangers to both the other
14:19Gulf countries, but obviously to the tanker traffic and shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
14:25So we got into this, I think, hoping that an immaculate first hit would put the Iranians down in a
14:32weak way.
14:33Now it's unclear how we get out.
14:34And the question is, do we need to immiserate this society of 90 plus million people?
14:40Does it need to be permanently unable to generate the small amounts of cash necessary to support proxy groups in
14:48the neighborhood?
14:48That's very hard.
14:50India has struggled with that with Pakistan.
14:52You don't need to have a lot of money to actually pay for proxy groups.
14:54I disagree with my Israeli colleague there.
14:58So, you know, Israel and the U.S., we've dragged ourselves into this.
15:02It's not clear how we're going to get out.
15:04I suspect the president will declare victory at some point.
15:06But in the meanwhile, we've also dragged the whole world in it with us.
15:10And as it happens, the U.S., as an energy exporter, is likely not to suffer the worst consequences of
15:17these dislocations.
15:17But our colleagues in Asia and India and elsewhere, they may struggle more with the energy disruptions that we've unleashed
15:25here.
15:26You know, it seems almost, therefore, that this is even the strategists are saying this is a war without a
15:32clear endgame,
15:32which is my second question linked to it, versus, of course, how long will the war take?
15:37And second, is there a clear endgame to this war?
15:41Velina Chakarova, you want to take both those questions?
15:44How long do you see this war going on? And is there an endgame?
15:48If so, what is it?
15:50Well, obviously, we are still in the escalation phase of the war.
15:55And that means that so long as we are not clear about two concrete scenarios,
16:01one involving military operation on the ground, whether it's a special military operation,
16:07a limited one on Kark Island or along the coastal part of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz,
16:16we do not have a clear window as to how long the war will continue.
16:21But let's be clear that at least for the next few weeks,
16:25unless Iran runs out of ballistic and drone potential, which doesn't look to be the case right now,
16:32we are still in an ongoing war with escalatory phase.
16:37That's the first question.
16:39Now, I think the more important question is about the implications, right?
16:44What is the impact on the global economy and the global community from this war?
16:52And I want to be very precise about it, namely that this war is very different in scale and scope,
16:59and in terms of multiplicative effects for the whole global economy as compared to previous military conflicts.
17:08You cannot compare it to any other episodes.
17:11You cannot compare it to the oil shop from 1973.
17:14You cannot compare it to any other military conflicts in the Middle East.
17:19And you cannot even compare it in scale to the pandemic.
17:23This is where we are.
17:27So every day that this war continues, we'll add additional months of multiplicative effects.
17:34If we take the wards by the Iranian co-speaker into consideration,
17:41if his claim that the Strait of Hormuz is about to be closed for another month,
17:46so he said six months.
17:48Six months.
17:50This means that we are in a systemic crisis situation already,
17:55with implications going beyond 2026.
17:59Okay.
17:59And I mean, of course, everything, not just oil and gas.
18:04Okay.
18:04You're calling this a situation which is even in many ways more frightening than the pandemic,
18:10at some level because of the sheer uncertainty and the manner in which it's taking the globe along with it.
18:15Aina Tangan, from a perspective where you are in Beijing, how do you see this war playing out?
18:21China's had strong interests in Iran, but now do you see an end game at all,
18:27or do you see this now a prolonged conflict?
18:30Before you can define the end game, I think you have to call out exactly what you think is happening.
18:36Obviously, Donald Trump didn't anticipate what was going to happen.
18:41He now wants out.
18:43Israel does not want the U.S. to leave, hence why they're killing all the negotiators
18:49and all the people who could negotiate on behalf of Iran.
18:52Iran has its own agenda, which is to punish the U.S. for killing the equivalent of their pope and
19:00also their president.
19:02The next time they meet the U.S. at a round table, what they want to do is to be
19:07able to severely diminish the U.S.
19:11They would like to crash the U.S. dollar and the global situation in terms of a way out.
19:16The only way I'd like to see, given there's no trust between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, is
19:23the third parties,
19:25BRICS coming together with other countries, and we're trying to figure out how they can guarantee this.
19:32It's going to be very difficult in the short term.
19:34I agree that this could go six months or more.
19:37You're saying it could go six months or more.
19:40It seems that off-ramp solutions, therefore, KC Singh, are perhaps, at least for now, off the table.
19:46The manner in which the entire Iranian leadership is being taken out reduces the scope for those kind of negotiations.
19:54Are we in for a long haul, a very, very long haul, KC Singh?
19:59It depends what happens in the next few days, because today I think it's already been put in the program.
20:06I agree with that, that Israel is trying to escalate and make sure that the Americans don't leave.
20:11Americans are looking for a win so that they can get away.
20:14Now, the attack today on South Paris, the gas field of Iran, and the facilities there, which even Qatar has
20:21criticized,
20:22because they share that gas field with Iran, that has now escalated it,
20:28because Iran is now hitting the facilities, the oil and gas facilities of other GCC countries.
20:35Earlier, they were not really directly, fully going after them.
20:39They were just blocking the exit from the Strait of Hormuz.
20:43So, this is an escalation, and then the US is rushing a battleship full of 5,000 marines or so
20:51to go and put soldiers on the ground, which is to occupy an island from where Iran exports its oil,
20:59or to occupy the northern ridge of the Gulf of Hormuz.
21:04So, do you really see the US putting boots on the ground?
21:10If they do, I see a clear escalation, because the ships will have to go closer.
21:15And the minute they come within the range of the Iranian missiles, you may have just British, the American ships
21:23sinking,
21:23and a lot of loss of life, and that can only escalate it.
21:27So, what the Americans have done is, they've got their bunker busters, and they're hitting north of the Hormuz Strait,
21:35thinking that let's get all the... You see, what has happened is, essentially, it's gone wrong.
21:40And now we must see the Omani foreign minister, the British national security advisor, and the American counter-terrorism head.
21:49They've all agreed that this is something, this is a pub sold by President's son-in-law,
21:54and Witkoff, the American envoy from the Middle East.
21:58They sold the Israeli argument that if we kill the top leadership, the government will collapse, people will rise up,
22:05and that's it, we'll have a change of regime.
22:07That didn't happen.
22:08Secondly, they said, we'll dominate the air, we'll take out all their missile sites.
22:14That didn't happen, the Iranians were prepared for it.
22:16They conceded the airspace, but all their missiles are underground.
22:20And the Americans are not able to, and the Israelis are not able to reach them.
22:24Nor have they been able to get the enriched uranium, which is probably on two or three different sites.
22:30Now, the minute you get soldiers on the ground, Iranians have a trained army.
22:35Iranian terrain is not easy to go and grab something immediately.
22:41There are mountains, there are places where the Iranians know how to operate.
22:44So this can lead to an entrenchment of US presence there, which will lead to unpopularity of President Trump as
22:52they go to the midterm.
22:53And I think the Iranians are gambling on that.
22:55That's why they regionalized the war.
22:57They said, let's bring everybody to our level.
23:00We've got sanctions, you have demolished our economy, you are treating us like this.
23:05So okay, we'll bring you to our level and pass on the pain to the rest of the world,
23:09so that President Trump, he doesn't care about us, but he cares about the American consumer.
23:14He'll have to, at some stage, break away from Israel.
23:17So you're also predicting a long war?
23:20At the moment, yes.
23:22If they put boots on the ground, it will be a long war.
23:24If that's only a threat and President Trump backs off, because he was supposed to go to China on March
23:3131st.
23:32He's been saying he's postponing it.
23:34He can hardly ever summit with President Xi while this war is going on.
23:38That itself will be an indication.
23:41You know, if he thinks that meeting is important, then he may just try scaling back.
23:45But Israel is escalating it to make sure the Americans don't leave.
23:50Christopher Clary, is Donald Trump ready to put boots on the ground?
23:55We've seen that in the past as a recipe potentially for disaster,
24:00because that puts the American forces straight in the line of fire.
24:05We've seen what's happening in Iraq, what's happening in Afghanistan.
24:08It's also a recipe for civil war.
24:10Do you believe Donald Trump is ready to take that risk of putting boots on the ground?
24:16You know, if I were a betting man, I would bet against it.
24:19I would also note that, you know, 5,000 Marines are not enough to seize any meaningful stretch of the
24:28Iranian shoreline, which is quite vast.
24:30I mean, we're all becoming acquainted with the size of Iran and the challenge that that poses militarily.
24:37Certainly it may be enough to seize Carg Island, but I am less confident than some that doing so would
24:47transform the strategic situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
24:51You know, I'm not a very optimistic man, but I may be more optimistic than some of my other panelists.
24:58I would be quite surprised and certainly do not hope for there to be continued large-scale disruptions along the
25:08Strait of Hormuz six months from now.
25:10I think it is more likely that there's some sort of inglorious end that we can find to this before
25:18then.
25:18And I should note that even though Iran has enormous options here, the U.S. still has enormous military excellence.
25:27What's the inglorious end, Christopher?
25:30I think probably the president saying he achieved all of his objectives and declaring a victory and Iran starting the
25:40process of rebuilding rather than fight beyond when the president desires to do so.
25:46Danny Orbach, very interestingly, Casey Singh said earlier that Israel is the one which is driving America to stay in
25:56the war.
25:57Christopher Clary is saying the president would ideally like to declare he believes some kind of a victory sooner rather
26:03than later.
26:03Is this therefore now Israel's war? And that's the problem with the endgame.
26:07You've got two allies with very different strategic objectives, and that creates a strategic incoherence.
26:16I don't think the strategic objectives are very different. I think the U.S. and Israel are very much aligned.
26:22Israel has no way to coerce President Trump to continue with the war.
26:25I'd like to correct my colleague, Mr. Singh, before Israel and the United States did achieve air dominance over Iran.
26:33Actually, Iranian rocket launchings are down in 90 percent, and the interception rate is close to 90 percent.
26:40It's very, very high.
26:41Same goes for drones, both on Israel and the Gulf states.
26:44So I believe the next move would be to siege Karg Island.
26:49And why?
26:50Because Iran is completely dependent on the export of gas and oil, mainly through this island.
26:56If you either occupy the island or destroy the oil facilities from the air, both options are open.
27:02Iran is out of money.
27:03And already now we have reports of mass desertions in the IRGC.
27:09Not really mass, I would correct myself, but you see the desertions starting to grow.
27:14And you see reports of IRGC soldiers not getting their pay from the banks.
27:20When the Iranian regime will be out of money, it wouldn't be able to finance its war machine as well.
27:26Therefore, I think Trump has two options.
27:28Either destroy the facilities, but then you will crumble the next regime too.
27:34It will not be able to reconstruct Iran under a different government or take over Karg Island
27:40and then give it back to a new Iranian regime when such a regime is established.
27:45You want to respond to that, Casey Singh?
27:48My Israeli guest is saying that there's a real possibility of Karg Island being taken over,
27:54of virtually bankrupting Iran and making it impossible for Iran to continue to finance this war.
28:02We are assuming that China will just keep sitting in the background and not finance Iran.
28:08They will not like Iran-Iranian regime to collapse, nor would President Putin.
28:15So the Russian Chinese are also watching it very closely.
28:18Unfortunately, a few times, President Putin has even come out and said that if there is a nuclear threat,
28:23we'll have to think about it.
28:24So there is a larger game which is on, not just Iran by itself.
28:29So let's see what goes on.
28:31I doubt if China will allow Iranian regime to go bankrupt.
28:36We're going to try and get in Aynar in a moment.
28:38He's struggling with his line because he will give us whether there is this Chinese angle.
28:44That China, you seem to suggest, Casey Singh, is the one which is bankrolling Iran.
28:50Am I correct?
28:51Is that what your suggestion, what your implication is?
28:54Yes.
28:54Most of the oil is being bought by them.
28:56Most of the trading is with China.
28:58They also have overland connection.
29:00It's not just through the strait.
29:03There's an overland connection through Central Asia.
29:06So the Chinese are very, very carefully, they are seeing exactly what is happening.
29:12And they would not want the government to collapse and for a captive U.S. regime to take over Tehran.
29:18They know what that game is.
29:19Because once that is there, as was said earlier,
29:22if the U.S. gets 30% of the global oil reserves, the Chinese are in trouble.
29:27Well, you know, it's interesting that Europe wants to stay away from the war.
29:31They've got enough of their own wars in their own neighborhood.
29:34What's happening between Ukraine and Russia.
29:37But it's very clear, most of the European nations are saying,
29:40we're not putting our warships in the line of fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
29:44They do not want to get involved in this war.
29:48Can you explain why Europe is so reluctant at the moment to go along with Israel and the United States?
29:58Yeah, first and foremost, Europeans are now for a second time being sidelined.
30:05Think of the negotiation format between Ukraine and Russia facilitated with the United States,
30:11where the European powers have been completely sidelined, have been actually not really informed,
30:17have been not involved in the process.
30:20And similarly now with this war, actually, there were clear statements pointing to the fact that they haven't been informed.
30:28European leaders have not been informed.
30:30They have not been consulted.
30:32And most of the European leaders, but I would like to also highlight not all of them,
30:37are not on the same page when it comes to the ongoing war in Iran.
30:42For instance, the German Chancellor Merz, he made some statements today claiming that
30:48he would have consulted against this war, against the beginning of the war.
30:52So the European position in its majority is not overlapping with the American-Israeli position.
31:00It's against the war, but at the same time is also, of course, against the regime and the way how
31:09the Iranian regime is actually acting
31:12and has been acting against the people.
31:13So it's a kind of dichotomy here when it comes to the positions.
31:17You have to be also mindful of the fact that there are certain networks facilitated over the years, over the
31:26last years, decades by Iranian proxies.
31:30Now there is some sort of danger or let's say risk alarm in some of the European countries that some
31:38of these networks could be activated as part of a responsive Europe.
31:43And let's say European states decide to actively participate in the war.
31:49This is some sort of consideration.
31:51And then is the technical point.
31:54I mean, we want kind of technical equipment.
31:58We want kind of free gates to the European powers to really participate, for instance, in an operation to open
32:05the Strait of Hormuz.
32:05So we have also this kind of technical issue, given the fact that now European powers are also trying to
32:11provide a material aid to Ukraine.
32:13But let me just add a final point on China, because the co-speaker is still not tuning in.
32:22And I want to be very clear about this particular dimension of the war, where there is a bigger framework
32:30of this war.
32:31You need to position this war in a bigger framework of interconnected flashpoints with Ukraine, with what's happening in the
32:39Western Hemisphere,
32:40and also with what's going to happen in the Indo-Pacific, in the Strait of Taiwan, as well as in
32:46South China Sea.
32:47And the way how the Americans are looking at it is, of course, from this prism that Iran is getting
32:54material aid from China and Russia,
32:56that the Dragon Bear as a modus operandi of strategic coordination is very, very much alive and kicking and is
33:02very strong in the region,
33:03has been facilitating aid to Iran.
33:07The very fact that Iran has been able to basically achieve much, much higher punctual strikes on targets is also
33:22because of some of this aid going back to China and Russia.
33:26So please be aware that it's not just about the regional dynamics, but it's also about global geopolitics and geoeconomics.
33:35And in that sense, I would argue that the Americans are still very much involved in this war,
33:40even if there is a gap between the strategic goals on behalf of Trump administration and the Israeli leadership.
33:47You know, what you're saying is very interesting and this entire argument of the role of China and the proxy
33:54war that in a way is being fought through Iran.
33:57You go along with that, Christopher Clary, that there's a China angle that needs to be looked at closely?
34:03You know, other great powers do have incentives to keep this conflict going on.
34:08You know, the undersecretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, who's coming to India soon,
34:15before he was nominated, wrote a book about the need for the U.S. to preserve its resources to focus
34:21on potential fights with China and Russia.
34:24And in that book, he spends a whole chapter on why Iran doesn't meet the requirements for the U.S.
34:30of diverting resources to deal with another threat.
34:33The Trump administration, and I guess undersecretary Colby with them, have clearly undergone an evolution on that topic.
34:41And it's certainly the case that the Iranian regime is, you know, noxious.
34:47It's killed many of its own citizens as well as the citizens and troops of other countries.
34:53So I shed not a tear for the deceased supreme leader.
34:58But we are in this mess now.
35:01And it is the case that the beneficiaries of this mess, many of them reside in Moscow and Beijing,
35:08and that will challenge the U.S. policy in the months and maybe even years ahead.
35:14So let's look at that.
35:15Who are the big winners and losers so far?
35:17Let's be honest.
35:18In wars, there are no, you know, when there are so many civilian casualties, particularly in Lebanon at the moment,
35:25we've also seen casualties of those hundreds, those dozens of schoolgirls who died in Iran.
35:31They clearly are the losers.
35:33And in war, there are no winners, you could argue.
35:38But either way, that's the question.
35:40Who are the big winners and losers so far?
35:43Uh, KC Singh, you want to respond to that?
35:46Who are the big winners and losers as you see playing out so far?
35:51As I said, civilian casualties.
35:53It's unfortunate that the common citizens, particularly across West Asia, as of now, are the big losers.
35:59You don't want a situation of this kind of perpetual conflict, surely, of the fear of drones, of the fear
36:06of missiles, of the fear of attacks on schools.
36:09But your sense, are there any winners and losers so far?
36:14Rajdeep, it's like your T20 match.
36:16I think with just five or seven overs over, you cannot decide who's a winner and who's a loser.
36:23I would say that Iran has an edge because it has defied early collapse.
36:29It hasn't collapsed.
36:30The regime hasn't collapsed.
36:31And the theory that if you take out the top leadership, it will collapse, that theory has proven wrong, which
36:38is what everybody was saying even earlier.
36:40And secondly, they've managed to retain the ability to counterattack and retaliate despite all the air power that Israel and
36:52the U.S. have.
36:53So it's showing there's a new kind of war, like Ukraine changed the laws of war.
36:57Iran is showing the other rules of war that you can take everything under the ground and then retaliate.
37:02And they've used and they've been developed indigenous capacity to develop drones.
37:08They've been supplying Russia.
37:09So they've got hundreds and thousands of those drones and they use them.
37:15And that's why I said a $10,000 drone, which they flew towards Israel required two or three or towards
37:21UAE or Saudi Arabia required missiles, which were costing two to $3 million.
37:27So they've exhausted the air defenses of all these countries using individually produced drones.
37:34And that's what Pakistan incidentally attempted at the time of Operation Sindur.
37:38So this is a new kind of new kind of lesson that is being learned from this, that you can
37:44be the most powerful military in the world, but you can't just go there and overthrow a regime.
37:49That's not what has happened.
37:51That's not what has happened.
37:51Now, America at the moment doesn't know how to get out of it.
37:56The nuclear, the uranium is still there.
37:59The ability, the regime hasn't collapsed.
38:02And so how do you go ahead with this?
38:04You either put up with it or, so I don't think there are any winners as yet, but Iran has
38:11certainly shown that they have greater capacity than U.S. and Israel expected.
38:16Danny Orbach, would you concede that, that Israel has been, had underestimated Iran's resilience, that when a country is targeted
38:25in the manner that Israel and the U.S. have, there is a, I am surprised with the resilience that
38:31Tehran has shown.
38:33Despite all these killings of their top leaders, they continue with their missile and drone attacks.
38:39Not at all.
38:40I think that unlike what my colleague had said, the missiles and drone attacks certainly on Israel are extremely ineffective.
38:47You see a very small number of casualties.
38:50You see much less damage than we had in the previous war.
38:54And even in the previous war, it was not that much.
38:58And what my colleague said before about the underground missiles, this is a common misconception, which I have to correct.
39:05Yes, true.
39:07Many of the missiles are underground.
39:08But what the Israel and the U.S. air forces are doing, they are blocking the entrances and the exits
39:14to the tunnels through bombings.
39:16And every tractor or bulldozer that tries to clear out the rubble and to open the tunnels again is being
39:23bombed immediately.
39:25The Israel and the United States have complete air dominance over Iran.
39:29And again, the launching capacities are diminishing by the day.
39:34I'm not surprised.
39:35I think people overestimated Iran, not underestimated it.
39:39And will Iran be able to go on like that?
39:43I'm not a prophet.
39:43I don't know.
39:44The regime did not collapse, true.
39:46But nobody expected that it will collapse so soon.
39:50What Trump and Netanyahu said very clearly, that they want to create the conditions for regime change, not the regime
39:57change itself.
39:58And they will call the demonstrators to the street.
40:02They didn't do so yet.
40:03Maybe they will come.
40:05Maybe they will not come.
40:06We have no control over that.
40:08We can destroy Iranian capacities.
40:11That's all.
40:11You can destroy Iranian capacities.
40:14That's all.
40:14But there is, of course, the fear of what is being called a global oil crisis at the moment, the
40:20longer the war continues, which is why I want to look at the final question, the costs of war.
40:26And then link it to who wins and who loses.
40:31Velina, you want to take both of that together?
40:33The costs of war, who wins, who loses?
40:36At the moment, and what does the war mean for India?
40:40Well, that's a question I'll put to Casey at the end.
40:43But your sense, Velina, on the costs of this war, who is the big winner or who is the big
40:49loser at the moment?
40:52At the moment, the absolutely obvious winners from this war are, of course, oil producers of large scale, such as
41:02United States.
41:03And the unexpected winner, again, short term, is Russia, because the oil price cap has fallen.
41:14And at the same time, Russia has received a waiver of 30 days.
41:18And you know how it is.
41:1930 days will turn into three months.
41:22It will turn into certainly into half a year.
41:26You get the idea.
41:27Of course, oil producers who do not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz are also on the winner's side.
41:34For instance, in the European case, it's Norway.
41:38And there are some other winners, you know, on the oil producing side.
41:43Now, combined with the second question about the price, there are already estimations.
41:49There will be at least 50 to 60 million people who will be pulled into a severe poverty situation as
41:59an immediate effect.
42:00These are numbers which are emerged from simulations from previous similar crisis.
42:06Now, I argue that this crisis will have an unimaginable multiplicative effect.
42:12That means that you can you have to multiply by factor.
42:16That's just the beginning of it.
42:18When we talk about economies, you have to factor in.
42:23It's not just about the oil itself, the high price of oil.
42:27It's about the refineries.
42:28It's about the oil products.
42:31It's about the industries and sectors that also are dependent on oil.
42:37You get the idea.
42:39Petrochemicals.
42:39You have a lot of household linked sectors that are also directly dependent on the oil price.
42:47And then, of course, we will have the inflationary impact.
42:50And I argue that by the end of the year, we might enter a severe global recession scenario.
42:57In the case of developed economies, which have more fiscal means and more financial tools to tackle these situations.
43:05Right now, again, we cannot compare it with the pandemic.
43:09Why?
43:10Because during the pandemic, we had actually a shock that was linked to the demand due to the disruption of
43:17the global supply chains.
43:18Now we are on the supply shop side.
43:21You cannot tackle this kind of supply shop with the, let's say, traditional monetary means by, let's say, central banks.
43:31So even developed economies, last sentence, will actually tackle, will cope with severe crises of stagflation.
43:39So we are, I argue, not even in the position to imagine the scale of what's about…
43:48You're predicting a very doomsday scenario, but I'm glad that someone is pointing out the potential dangers of a prolonged
43:55war, which is why the best thing that could happen is that there is a solution found.
44:00But Christopher Clary, your take, who are the big winners and losers at the moment?
44:06I'm not sure how many winners there are.
44:09And I think, echoing your comments from earlier, the losers are clearly those people that are in harm's way.
44:15You know, basically every Iranian has some concern that they'll be taken out by an errant airstrike.
44:23They don't know whether someone else in their building has been put on a hit list from Israel and the
44:29US.
44:29They don't know whether somebody else, you know, next door, whether they'll happen to be driving by a besieged checkpoint
44:36when it gets hit by a drone.
44:37So there is real terror, I think, in Iran, as there is, I should note, in Iran's somewhat indiscriminate use
44:45of drones and missiles on the Gulf states in the region.
44:49So we should, those losers are those people that are in physical harm.
44:53But I should also note, and I'll, this may be my concluding thought in this regard, that the real losers,
45:00many of the real losers are in India's neighborhood.
45:04India itself somewhat relies on, you know, large imports of gas and oil from the Middle East.
45:12It relies on imports of fertilizer from the Middle East.
45:16But Bangladesh and Pakistan, both in very fragile states, rely even more so.
45:22And those economies, which are already in some difficulty, those economies will be hit with another blow.
45:30And so I think India, over the next several months, and maybe even the next year or two, will be
45:37dealing with the ramifications because inflation, shortages, those will cause real political problems in India's neighborhood.
45:46And it's not clear the tools that are available to deal with those problems to prevent troubles becoming instability.
45:55That's a good point on which to ask that question to Casey Singh.
45:58My final question, what does it really mean for India?
46:00Do you believe that India can in any, I think the last week has been an insular, has been a
46:06bit of a wake-up call, the LPG crisis, which the government claims they're now in control of.
46:11But either way, if this is a prolonged war, it's going to affect the Indian economy, it's going to affect
46:16the neighborhood, as Christopher very well put it.
46:19Both Pakistan and Bangladesh perhaps even more fragile in terms of the effect that it could have.
46:25We are entering an extremely unstable point.
46:28To take the point that Valerina made, it's like a bit like the pandemic creating a lot of uncertainty, possibly
46:35worse.
46:38Well, I'm glad India has done some rebalancing in the last 10 days.
46:41There was a distinct tilt at the beginning of the war, but that changed over a period of time.
46:46I think India is trying to rebalance it correctly.
46:50But for us, the problem is greater than just oil and gas and fertilizer, because we got 10 million Indians
46:58in the Gulf area.
47:00Now, what will happen to them if, unless there's a regime change in Tehran, even if there is tomorrow a
47:07ceasefire, Dubai is not about to become the kind of city it was,
47:11or draw the kind of, already there's talk of investment going out, they put a limit of $100,000 of
47:18what can be taken out of UAE.
47:20And when you put limits like that, once the limits are lifted, money flees.
47:25Because till now it was seen that this was a great place for people who are tax exempt, who would
47:31come and live there, even if they're not doing business there.
47:34So India, it is a great, GCC is important for trade, it's one of our largest trading partners.
47:40It's important for the remittances of those Indians.
47:43And then on top of that, there's energy and fertilizer.
47:46And fertilizer we need now in the next couple of months, the crops will have to be re-sown.
47:52And that's when fertilizer shortage will become a domestic issue.
47:55So for us, it's a much more complicated thing than simply energy or gas or petroleum.
48:02Because we don't want, because some of these people may lose their jobs.
48:06About 70% of the Indians are working class in the Gulf.
48:09Can I?
48:10So if you find the tourism industry is down, if you find people are, jobs may shrink in the Gulf.
48:19Can I, though, I have just two minutes and I'm going to ask 30 second answers from each of you.
48:23Your biggest learning from the last three weeks.
48:25What is it that has been your biggest takeaway from what has happened in the last three weeks?
48:32Let's start with you, Danny Orbach from Jerusalem.
48:35What's your biggest takeaway?
48:37My biggest takeaway is that economics are a supreme consideration in war.
48:42And every military operation has to consider the economic ramifications,
48:47both what my colleagues had said about the clause of the hormone strain,
48:51but also about the adversary's ability to sustain the war financially.
48:57And the war goal of Israel and the U.S. is to cripple the Iranian ability of doing so.
49:03Okay.
49:04Velina, what's your biggest takeaway?
49:06What's the last three weeks taught you the most?
49:08Very quickly.
49:10For me, the biggest takeaway is that we are living in a new world,
49:14in a new global geopolitical order.
49:16It's a bifurcating global system.
49:18We are living in, we are seeing the manifestation of the emergence of new architecture.
49:24We don't know exactly how it will look like, but from supplying chains,
49:29from food and energy systems to financial markets, as well as diplomatic institutional architectures.
49:37All of this is going to be reshaped after this war is over, and there's going to be a new,
49:41new world order for sure.
49:44What kind of it?
49:45Big question mark.
49:46I still argue that it's going to be a new Cold War rather than World War III.
49:50And in that sense, I think this is the trigger now.
49:54Okay.
49:55The new Cold War.
49:56You're calling it the new Cold War more than World War III.
49:59Yes.
49:59Christopher Clary, your biggest takeaway.
50:03I think I would have been surprised if you had told me that the war between the U.S.
50:06and Iran had been going on for three weeks, that it had been no holds barred to some extent,
50:10that we'd killed the Supreme Leader, that U.S. military fatalities would be less than
50:1410.
50:15The U.S. military has enormous asymmetry over most conceivable opponents.
50:20But the problem is that incredible military power is still difficult to translate into political
50:27results on the ground.
50:29K.C. Singh, your biggest takeaway.
50:33Well, biggest takeaway is that I think we need, India has learned this lesson, you need
50:40to maintain relations with all sides, because this is a very unstable region.
50:47It looks very stable when you go when things are normal.
50:49You go to UAE, you go to other places, but you've got instability pretty close.
50:54And that is why, when on the sidelines of the G20, India signed the big accord for the
51:00India, Middle East, Europe thing.
51:03I said then, I said, everybody is here but the Israeli Prime Minister.
51:07What did that mean?
51:08The Saudis were not willing to sit with the Israeli Prime Minister, and four weeks later,
51:14Gaza happened.
51:16You know, we were not seeing that, all this is very good to imagine.
51:19You can go through these countries, Haifa, and connection to Europe.
51:23But nobody thought that four weeks later, Gaza will explode, because we just ignored the
51:29Palestinian issue.
51:30Everybody said that issue is dead.
51:32No issue ever dies.
51:34And I think that is the lesson, that we have to being close to the neighborhood.
51:39We can't ignore that.
51:40We shouldn't be taking sides.
51:42That is what we've learned since 47.
51:44We must remain more or less neutral, but also have leverage so that we play a role.
51:51Now, that is why now we should be playing a role.
51:53But where is the Indian role?
51:55Okay, we'll leave it there.
51:57That's a separate debate about what exactly India's role really should be.
52:02But clearly, we have had three weeks that have completely convulsed and changed the world
52:10order in several ways.
52:12The implications of what's happening in West Asia have clearly been felt across the world.
52:18To all my guests for joining me here on that Global Roundtable, thank you very much.
52:23A reminder, of course, that we did have the Iranian perspective also at the start of the show.
52:29And as I said, our Iranian guest did not want to sit with those who he said were responsible
52:35for an illegal war.
52:37That perhaps tells you all you need to know about what's going on at the moment.
52:42Thanks for watching.
52:43Stay well, stay safe.
52:45Namaskar.
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