00:06Welcome back and we bring you big breaking news that's coming in from the markets.
00:10It seemed that the escalation that we are seeing in the war of West Asia, it's having a big impact
00:15on the markets in our country.
00:18Well, the sensex has plunged by over 2200 points.
00:23We have seen a fall in Nifty as well.
00:25The fall is of about 687 points.
00:30So the markets are down by almost 3%.
00:33Remember, there has been a jump in the energy prices, the crude oil prices, the gas prices,
00:38because of the escalation and the attacks that we are seeing by Israel on Iran gas fields and the retaliation
00:46of Iran on the Gulf countries.
00:49So joining us right now is Chetan Bhutani of Business Today.
00:53Chetan, do tell us, the markets seem to be reacting, even the precious metals as well.
01:00Do give us an update.
01:01Well, you know, it's been a bad day for the markets.
01:04The global markets are also outperforming India.
01:06In fact, when you look at Nifty, the crucial level of 23,000 was broken.
01:11The markets recovered at the faggot, but again had a very bad fall, closing at about 23,000 levels, about
01:18775, you know, market points down, 3.26% down.
01:22Bank Nifty closing at 53,451, indicating it was down for about 1,800 points.
01:28Fin Nifty, one of the biggest indicators of the financial index of the Nifty, all closed at nearly 1,000
01:33points, about 24,951.
01:35I want to highlight one thing that, you know, 23,000 was a very key and a crucial level with
01:40the investors' work while washing out, about putting their money into the Indian market.
01:43But that got broken today.
01:45The markets got recovered, but it closes at 23,000, which really means the volatility is going to go beyond
01:50what it is going on currently.
01:52Because once we saw that, the Trump's warning towards Israel coming up, that, you know, you can't really bomb a
01:59country without informing us at a certain places.
02:02That's also indicating that the war could grow beyond.
02:04The CEN6 has crashed 2,400 points, Nifty down 775 points.
02:08And of course, the Brent crude is nearly hovering about $110 per barrel, which is a very bad news for
02:14oil marketing companies as well.
02:15The government will have to manage and micromanage the situation.
02:18But yes, with the war and escalation in West Asia, we are expecting investors to park their money into more
02:24safe havens, like gold and silver, which also, by the way, saw some profit looking yesterday.
02:29So yes, we'll see some update and a price in gold and silver, probably a silver haven.
02:34But yes, the investors, global investors are putting out their money from the Indian markets and probably investing in much
02:40safer havens.
02:41Chetan, also, we've seen a terrible impact on the Indian rupee as well in the last few days.
02:46Do give us an update of that as well, because that completely impacts our buying power.
02:51Well, absolutely.
02:5292.69 is the new low that rupee went to in the dollar.
02:57And of course, it is affecting a whole lot of export issues in the country as well.
03:03In fact, former Secretary was doing a briefing today.
03:05He almost mentioned that there are some sectors that are getting impacted and affected with the war situation.
03:11And we'll have to wait and watch as to what really the exports numbers come out and import numbers come
03:16out.
03:16Because we'll have to wait till about seven to eight more days till the final data of export issues and
03:21import issues coming comes out.
03:23So yes, rupee volatility continues.
03:25It's going to be a further bad situation for Indian investors and of course for importers and exporters as well.
03:32Tell us how the government is, or rather, has been trying to mitigate the impact of this war on the
03:40markets as well as on small investors as well.
03:42We've also seen some foreign investors pulling out money, but government easing norms for Chinese investors as well.
03:49So how is it trying to stabilize the market?
03:52Well, you know, government from time to time undertakes several measures to cushion investors and of course the import-export
03:59community as well and business management.
04:01Because a whole lot of economy and businesses supply and rely on imports and exports of goods and services.
04:08So government has been giving various schemes like credit line extensions, asking banks to give, you know, freer and more
04:15credit on a very easier, simpler terms.
04:18Because since the times are bad, the government wants to really handle certain sectors which are really dependent upon, you
04:24know, upon imports and exports and upon dollars as well.
04:27So yes, the government is of course working.
04:29They want to have, they want to cushion and absorb the shock as much as possible and leave the possibility
04:34of passing it on to various, you know, businessmen and businesses at least minimal level.
04:40Also, when we speak to the government sources, officials in the higher authority, they tell us that yes, MSME sectors
04:46are getting impacted, but yes, they are trying to pivot towards different countries who are offering better deals.
04:52And we want to cushion MSME especially because MSME is one sector where the government is most serious on protecting.
04:58So yes, these are the three four sectors that the government is trying to cushion.
05:02A lot of schemes, credit guarantee schemes have been issued by the government in the past and we can expect
05:06if the West Asia work continues, there could be more schemes coming out at the same level as well.
05:11Okay, Chetan, now let's talk about something that worries people the most and that is the fuel prices.
05:15Till now, we have not seen any sort of panic in that area, but how is the action that's happening
05:22on the fuel regions, the fuel rich regions, how is it going to impact and how much can the government
05:28cushion?
05:30Well, you see, you know, $110 per barrel is a very bad news for domestic oil marketing companies, but as
05:35far as shortage of fuel is concerned and prices of fuel at retail petrol pumps and diesel is concerned, that's
05:41highly unlikely because the government is procuring from various regions including Russia.
05:44The government timely made a pivot towards Russian oil because of course India had to complete its energy security, but
05:51what remains the point of contention and some point of worry within the government in Chile is of course with
05:57respect to LPG because 90% of our imports of LPG comes from the state of Hormuz, which is of
06:02course under a lot of pressure and a lot of ships have not been able to pass.
06:06India, about 22 Indian ships have anchored near the state of Hormuz in a completely safe situation.
06:11That's when we are hoping that we will get more supply of LPG from there.
06:16This is where the government has some worries with respect to LPG, but as far as you mentioned about crude
06:20oil prices and the supply of petrol and diesel and its prices, it's not likely to be increased as of
06:25now because the supply is stable.
06:27But yes, the oil marketing companies, HBC, LPG, HBC, BPC, Indian oil corporations, these three to four companies who manufacture
06:34most of the petrol and diesel into the country will be having some problems with respect to their margins and
06:40stock pressures because at 110, it's a very bad deal and a very expensive buy for these refiners to sustain
06:47and of course manufacture and procure and supply to the nation as well.
06:53Right. Do stay on with us, Chetan, as Shailinder Bhatnagar also joins us, Chief Analyst and Editor of the Markets.
07:01Shailinder, you know, if we talk about the volatility in the market and also the kind of investor anxiety that
07:08people see when something like that is happening at the global level,
07:11what are we seeing and how do you predict the long-term impact of the current war in West Asia
07:19on Indian markets?
07:21Ma'am, this war has now sort of escalated over the last three days and that is absolutely visible on
07:30how crude oil prices have moved by 10% today to about $115, $116 a barrel.
07:36We import 85% of our energy requirements and that has a direct bearing on the rupee, a fresh record
07:43low.
07:43So at the moment, all calculations are off the table, you need to look at the impact of importing crude,
07:51importing energy into the country and that has put all calculations off.
07:57So at the moment, let's hope that some sanity returns around, you know, 22,000, 22,500 or 21,500
08:09on the Nifty.
08:10So another thousand odd points, probably you could see a downtick depending upon how this Mideast war ends or escalates.
08:21Okay. And how is it impacting the investing pattern in our country?
08:26Are people pulling out money in terms of, I'm not only talking about small retail investors, but also the big
08:33institutional investors, are they pulling out money?
08:35What is the situation?
08:36Well, of course, the foreign institutional investors are pulling out money because a weaker rupee keeps on impacting their long
08:45-term returns.
08:46So FIIs are net sellers, which has been the case for many, many months, about three years or so also.
08:53Domestic investors are still holding the faith.
08:56You see thousands of crores coming into the mutual fund space that is also holding up the market.
09:02But ultra-HNIs are selling, FIIs are selling and traders by and large are also net sellers.
09:10So that's the reason why you see a thousand point cut on the Nifty almost, a 2,000 point cut
09:17on the Sensex.
09:18That's visible on net selling and that's impacting sentiment for the long term as well.
09:24Right. Absolutely. Thank you very much, Alendra, for those details.
09:26So clearly there is anxiety amongst the investors as the markets are also tumbling and taking a hit.
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