00:00And joining me now from London is Negar Anga, an Iranian specialist at King's College and also a
00:05former advisor to the Biden administration. Thank you so much for your time. First of all,
00:10we just heard there from our Iranian correspondent in Tehran that there's been no confirmation as yet
00:16from the Iranians about the death of Larry Jani. But could you perhaps explain what does this mean
00:22for the Iranian leadership at this point? Well, good afternoon. Thanks for having me on.
00:29Look, I think, you know, again, if confirmed, Larry Jani being killed is a major blow to the
00:37Iranian system, but it doesn't necessarily mean it ends it, just means that the regime is going to
00:42continue to harden and close in on ranks. And I think, you know, one of the things that is important
00:51for us to take into consideration is that, you know, Larry Jani himself was a good buffer. He was
00:58able to negotiate and he was part of some of the negotiating conversations in relation to the
01:06U.S. negotiations. And, you know, not having someone who could be an interlocutor will make
01:14things harder as, you know, we're looking at hopefully ending the war or finding an off-ramp to
01:20end this war. And usually as we go through this process and all these top leaders and commanders
01:26are killed, the system, the IRGC has already built two to three or four even layers down in terms of
01:34their succession process. What happens is, again, as they start to close ranks, they're going to become
01:39even more suspicious of their surrounding and they're going to be even more hardened
01:46and digging in their heels. So negotiations will be harder.
01:49Do we have any idea, however, as to who's actually in charge now,
01:54be it either the Republican Guard or the besiege force?
01:59Well, I think the besiege is essentially the paramilitary arm under the IRGC control.
02:06So they're used to suppress protesters. You see them, you know, driving around,
02:12imposing restrictions on the average citizen. So, you know, the besiege chief being killed,
02:22you know, doesn't necessarily suddenly dismantle this repression apparatus. What it does is it's
02:28trying to show optics of sort of a breakdown of these various top leaders. The IRGC,
02:36however, has closed in ranks. There's a few of them. They essentially are the backbone of this
02:43wartime state. They're surrounded by, essentially, Mushtaba Khamenei is the supreme leader. He was
02:51essentially chosen and pushed by the IRGC commanders. And again, they have a command structure
02:58in place so that as one, you know, leader is taken out or one sort of sort of one who
03:09has a leadership
03:10type profile is taken out, then you have the next layer and the next layer. I think what gets
03:15concerning for people, governments in the West, is as this sort of layering keeps going further and
03:23further down, there isn't, there's less of an understanding of who they are. And that becomes
03:29a little bit more complicated, a little bit more disjointed. Again, there is an inherent fear amongst
03:34themselves internally. Even staying inside Tehran is a bit concerning and you see them sort of spreading
03:42out across the country too, to not only stay protected, but that kind of disparate sort of
03:49separation can also cause some miscommunications too.
03:54The Israeli prime minister has just been speaking on Israeli television and Netanyahu saying that the
04:00killing of Larajani gives Iranians the chance to overthrow their rulers. So I'm curious to know,
04:06where does this leave the opposition on the ground? Because clearly, it's far too dangerous for
04:10people to take to the streets, given the ongoing aerial bombardment.
04:16You know, one of the things that Israel has been trying to do, and I think one of the reasons,
04:22you know, sort of essentially, if true, if confirmed, the killing of the Basiji chief,
04:29and the bombing of a lot of the Basiji checkpoints is to show sort of the optics that Israel is
04:36sort of
04:36taking out the forces, taking out the checkpoints that harass the people, and the inherent fear that
04:44people have about coming out onto the streets and protesting. You know, the issue is that, you know,
04:53as this continues, this sort of viable political transition becomes a bit of a fear amongst the
05:01people. I think as your sort of anchor on the ground in Iran was explaining, there is this, people are
05:08tired,
05:09there is this constant fear, there's not only the bombings that they're concerned about, but even in the
05:15middle of the night, you have the Basiji, you know, patrols going through the streets, booming from the
05:22loudspeakers, whether it's chants or, you know, songs of the, you know, the regime and enforcing
05:29the regime. So there's just this inherent fear throughout the society. You do have many people
05:36still wanting a regime change, but this indiscriminate killing that's taking place makes it harder for
05:42people to come out in the same way as they used to.
05:45So is regime change at this point in time a fantasy?
05:51I think, you know, the problem is that when we talk about potential regime change, I think the
05:58timetable is a very difficult conversation to have, right? So regime change isn't going to necessarily
06:05happen overnight. There has been no signs of an organized dissent while Iran is under attack.
06:12Israeli officials themselves have acknowledged that there is no certainty that this government
06:18will fall tomorrow. And I think, again, we need to bear in mind that it could be eventual. I think
06:25right now what's happening, because we're under a wartime situation, you have more of the security
06:32factions and all of the different types of entities that are connected to the IRGC, because IRGC
06:38has their fingers in everything, whether it's the political, the military, and the economics. And so
06:45that entire apparatus has not put down their arms, they haven't come out against the regime. And if
06:51this sort of rally around the flag moment continues, it's harder to see the regime falling. It could
06:58eventually, but I think in terms of the here and now over the next few weeks, it seems highly unlikely.
07:04And what does the killing of Larijani mean for the Americans? Does it hasten a pivot to an exit
07:11strategy or not?
07:14You know, we've seen reporting right now that the White House itself, the national security experts,
07:22the policy experts, the economic experts around President Trump have been sort of advising
07:29President Trump that, you know, that he should take a victory lap right now. And sort of being able to
07:37find that window is narrowing very quickly. You have the Hawks who are encouraging to maintain a sustained
07:45pressure. I think Israel having taken out it, and again, if confirmed, some of these top leadership
07:52profiles, it does give Washington kind of that additional window to continue in this fight.
08:01It strengthens the argument that the campaign could continue to take out more
08:07leadership profiles. There would be more sort of strategic returns in this case.
08:13But the economics and the U.S. domestic politics is, I think, going to play a much larger factor in
08:21terms of where Trump will land. Israel has said that they're going to continue on this campaign for
08:27another three weeks or so. So we're going to have to see. It does give some legs, but quite frankly,
08:34there's so many other factors in this, especially the economics, that will, I think, change potentially
08:40the calculus of the president. And that indeed was my next question. It still leaves the Strait of Hormuz
08:47and its immediate impact on the global economy, which, of course, the Iranian regime can still use as
08:53leverage. Do you think the ongoing economic pressure might actually hasten Trump's decision to end the war,
09:02given that he is seen as being rather unpredictable in the way he makes decisions?
09:09I think it will definitely play a large factor in his decision making process. I think,
09:14again, it will be a confluence of things. I don't think there will be one single component.
09:19As we've seen, this is such a complex situation. So whether it's sort of the pressure by allies, it's
09:27pressure by the heads of states of the Gulf region, and also sort of the CEOs, the major corporations,
09:38the impact that this is having not only on shipping vessels, but eventually sort of the downstream of
09:45whether gas prices being extremely high, we're seeing higher prices at the pump in the United States,
09:51but also the impact on food. As we've seen, again, all these vessels are being delayed,
09:58which means, again, the ripple effect will take months. The US is about to enter into its
10:04midterm elections. And as we know, voters usually vote based on their pocketbook. And if the inflation
10:13continues, things are going to continue to be expensive, that will have an impact. The American
10:18public has been very clear that they do not want to enter into any more forever wars. And in general,
10:25the idea of this taking place in the Middle East creates this allergic reaction that we might be
10:30entering into something that will be more prolonged than the American public will be content with.
10:36That has an impact on how the American public will vote, be it now or by the time we get
10:43to the
10:43presidential elections.
10:44Nega Anger, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much for your time.
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