00:00Julian Emanuel of Evercore writing this is one of the riskiest moments of the 21st century but betting on the
00:04end of the world has been a losing proposition consistently since 1982 and we expect that to be the case
00:11once more. Julian joins us now for more. Julian good morning. Good morning. Is that 5% dip of Bible
00:15one?
00:17Well it's actually the better question is if you had a question that I want to ask. There is definitely
00:23a better question John. If we had known that you were going to more than double from the December low
00:29in oil to where we got to a week a week and change ago and we saw the string of
00:35payroll reports that we've seen over the last six months. Would you have really thought that stocks would only have
00:41been down 5% essentially in a six month range.
00:46We would have thought the number would be down 15 20 or 25 percent. It speaks to the resilience of
00:52the market. It speaks to the resilience of the economy. And ultimately in our view the fact that you're going
01:00to get double digit earnings growth this year speaks to the fact that markets can move higher.
01:05It's impressive. Some people might say complacent. I would say it's impressive because of the earnings profile. You did some
01:11work on this. I read through the research. Just walk through how good earnings
01:15are at the moment and traditionally what that means for an equity market going forward. So and and this is
01:20the irony of it. We're projecting 11.1 percent growth for 2026.
01:25And we are below consensus. OK. And and when we create those numbers we like to put out a number
01:33where we see symmetrical risk and that and we feel good about that.
01:36But in fact when you have had double digit earnings growth you've had that 11 times since 1996. 10 of
01:45the 11 years the market has been up. The average is 13 percent.
01:49And that's a very compelling story for us.
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